Updated with $/WAR: Every Hahn MLB Free Agent Signing since 2012/2013

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

When they lead to world series victories? A lot.

You seem to be capable of a lot of cognitive dissonance that actually all of hahns worst moves are okay, and moves that led to a world series were in fact bad.

Winning a World Series contains a lot of luck. Chapman nearly BLEW the World Series. To pretend that the Cubs couldn't have made any other move in which they didn't need to give up a potential superstar with 7 years of team control for a rental closer is just incorrect imo. Chapman didn't win the Cubs the World Series, but the Cubs could certainly use Gleybar Torres right now and for the next 6 years. 

Theo could have made another move that didn't mean giving up a guy who might be a star for a decade to acquire someone for a few months into a volatile role such as closer.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

When they lead to world series victories? A lot.

You seem to be capable of a lot of cognitive dissonance that actually all of hahns worst moves are okay, and moves that led to a world series were in fact bad.

Hahn's moves have been atrocious. Where do I say Hahn's worst moves are OK? You guys can move the goal posts all you want, but the facts are the facts. You want to ridicule Hahn for being some horrendous FA signee - fine. I don't disagree, but to then praise Epstein is just hypocritical. 

It's harder to win when you're swimming in the discount pool in free agency - it's harder to hit big. Theo has been swimming in the high stakes pool, and he swing and misses more than anyone in baseball. 

Respect Theo for what he's good at - as I have said - but downplaying bad moves he's made and hiding behind some hindsight victory bias is not how anyone evaluates a decision in baseball circles.

If Gleybar Torres stays healthy and continues to grow - as he has - he will be around a 20+ WAR player over the duration of his rookie contract and he will have been traded for 1 WAR for 1/2 a season. They didn't win a World Series BECAUSE of Aroldis Chapman, they won one WITH him. 

[GreenSox]

"The decline has been unprecedented" (applying the Shields excuse to the rest of them).

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Who is to say he’d employ the same strategy if running a small or mid market club?  His strategy is tied to the financial resources availbe to him.

All we can judge a man on is the information we have on the decisions he has made. We can not judge a man based on decisions he may have made under circumstances he has never experienced. He has never shown a different strategy in his tenure as GM - whether with the Cubs or the Red Sox. He has spent frivolously and recklessly. Theo has signed 4 of the worst contracts in MLB history - Crawford, Darvish, Edwin Jackson and Heyward (this one can still right itself slightly if Heyward can have 1-2 big years.

[ron883]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

All we can judge a man on is the information we have on the decisions he has made. We can not judge a man based on decisions he may have made under circumstances he has never experienced. He has never shown a different strategy in his tenure as GM - whether with the Cubs or the Red Sox. He has spent frivolously and recklessly. Theo has signed 4 of the worst contracts in MLB history - Crawford, Darvish, Edwin Jackson and Heyward (this one can still right itself slightly if Heyward can have 1-2 big years.

3 championships. Nuff said. 

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Hahn's moves have been atrocious. Where do I say Hahn's worst moves are OK? You guys can move the goal posts all you want, but the facts are the facts. You want to ridicule Hahn for being some horrendous FA signee - fine. I don't disagree, but to then praise Epstein is just hypocritical. 

It's harder to win when you're swimming in the discount pool in free agency - it's harder to hit big. Theo has been swimming in the high stakes pool, and he swing and misses more than anyone in baseball. 

Respect Theo for what he's good at - as I have said - but downplaying bad moves he's made and hiding behind some hindsight victory bias is not how anyone evaluates a decision in baseball circles.

If Gleybar Torres stays healthy and continues to grow - as he has - he will be around a 20+ WAR player over the duration of his rookie contract and he will have been traded for 1 WAR for 1/2 a season. They didn't win a World Series BECAUSE of Aroldis Chapman, they won one WITH him. 

Do you believe they win the world series without the 7 innings he pitched? Yes he broke at the end when they ran him out for more than 1 inning in game 7, but he'd pitched 7 innings of 1 run baseball in 5 appearances before he finally gave up those last 2 runs.

[bmags]

So a collection of Theo's worst signings came out to a 17 mill/War, $4 million per WAR less than a collection of all of Hahns signings minus Abreu.

That tells me a lot.

[TheTruth05]

Imagine trying to put down Theo Epstein to make Hahn seem not as horrid. Couldn't be me

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

So a collection of Theo's worst signings came out to a 17 mill/War, $4 million per WAR less than a collection of all of Hahns signings minus Abreu.

That tells me a lot.

Well, I didn't include Heyward, Edwin Jackson, or Yu Darvish since we don't have enough data on two of them... but when you include those three, it's certainly much worse than 4mill/per WAR less.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, TheTruth05 said:

Imagine trying to put down Theo Epstein to make Hahn seem not as horrid. Couldn't be me

Who is trying to make Hahn seem not as horrid? 

Reading comprehension seems to be a big issue here with some posters. In no way have I defended Hahn or any decision he has made in this thread. He has made abysmal free agent signings, but his signings weren't bad enough to strap the organization for a decade - partly because he hasn't been given that much money to blow, but based on his track record so far he'd probably blow it if they gave him it. If Theo made those signings with an organization like the White Sox they would be ded. 

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Well, I didn't include Heyward, Edwin Jackson, or Yu Darvish since we don't have enough data on two of them... but when you include those three, it's certainly much worse than 4mill/per WAR less.

Heywards only $15million/WAR, so he would help.

And my numbers with hahn aren't cherry picking like this. I could remove like half the WAR with no money in Zach Putnam and Swarzak and it would nearly double his $/WAR.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Do you believe they win the world series without the 7 innings he pitched? Yes he broke at the end when they ran him out for more than 1 inning in game 7, but he'd pitched 7 innings of 1 run baseball in 5 appearances before he finally gave up those last 2 runs.

I believe that not having Chapman could have led to many other decisions that could have resulted in a 4 game sweep in the World Series just as likely as a Game 7 loser. Once again, the Cubs did not win the World Series because of Aroldis Chapman.

If people think the Chapman trade was a good trade, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Value in and value out is all that matters in trades; even with present day WAR being more valuable to a winning team than future WAR, that trade doesn't come close to being even. 

[TheTruth05]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Who is trying to make Hahn seem not as horrid? 

Reading comprehension seems to be a big issue here with some posters. In no way have I defended Hahn or any decision he has made in this thread. He has made abysmal free agent signings, but his signings weren't bad enough to strap the organization for a decade - partly because he hasn't been given that much money to blow, but based on his track record so far he'd probably blow it if they gave him it. If Theo made those signings with an organization like the White Sox they would be ded. 

 

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So he does nothing wrong?

His FA track record speaks for itself - it's dreadful. So he struggles there... I am merely pointing that out. He has continued to struggle there with the Cubs, and his struggles may have closed the Cubs window despite the youthful and talented offense. 

His struggles with drafting and developing pitching is also very well documented. 

He did really well in trading for Arrieta and Hendricks, and he did real poor in trading for Quintana and Chapman. That just shows that you win some and lose some.

Also, payroll does matter. He was in Boston with a top 2 payroll and unlimited resources and then he moved to the Cubs and has the same unlimited resources at his fingertips. That's really important. It's why I am much more fond of Andrew Friedman's accomplishments than Theo's.

As I said, Theo is a very very smart baseball man, but he's not a god amongst men in the game.

Your whole argument is we are wrong to elevate Theo even though he ended the sport's 2 longest Championship droughts and in a relatively short time. Tell me how, compared to the FO we have in place, we should not admire what he has done and wish we had a mind like his in our FO? Because he would have signed a few bad FA's trying to take his young,talented teams over the top?  The worst stretch of Theo's career was only after he had already won 2 WS in Boston.

Edited April 12, 2019 by TheTruth05

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Heywards only $15million/WAR, so he would help.

And my numbers with hahn aren't cherry picking like this. I could remove like half the WAR with no money in Zach Putnam and Swarzak and it would nearly double his $/WAR.

Maybe I'll put together something next week as you have me interested. I would guess that higher tier free agents have a less likely BUST rate than bottom to mid-tier free agents. I believe that is backed up by the fact that MLB GM's have moved away from mid-level and low-level free agents like the plague over the past decade. The fact that Epstein got to play in the talented pool and still struck out this often isn't a good thing. 

[Dick Allen]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Who is trying to make Hahn seem not as horrid? 

Reading comprehension seems to be a big issue here with some posters. In no way have I defended Hahn or any decision he has made in this thread. He has made abysmal free agent signings, but his signings weren't bad enough to strap the organization for a decade - partly because he hasn't been given that much money to blow, but based on his track record so far he'd probably blow it if they gave him it. If Theo made those signings with an organization like the White Sox they would be ded. 

Theo also drafted a couple of MVPs.

One in the second round in 2004.

The White Sox 4 picks before Pedroia was taken..Josh Fields, Gio Gonzalez, Wes Whisler, and Donny Lucy.

And their 5 picks before Theo picked Mookie Betts in round 5

Walker, Johnson, Soptic, McMillen, Snodgrass. 

It was always a built in excuse the White Sox with their mediocre record  couldn't draft well because they didn't draft high enough. Even this rebuild is OK taking longer even though they had a top 3 pick in Rodon a couple of years before it started and Collins was a guy Hostetler said he would have taken had he had pick #1. 

Rick Hahn is a smart guy. But as a major league GM, he's lacking. The results are there for everyone to see. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I believe that not having Chapman could have led to many other decisions that could have resulted in a 4 game sweep in the World Series just as likely as a Game 7 loser. Once again, the Cubs did not win the World Series because of Aroldis Chapman.

If people think the Chapman trade was a good trade, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Value in and value out is all that matters in trades; even with present day WAR being more valuable to a winning team than future WAR, that trade doesn't come close to being even. 

The Cubs absolutely paid a premium price for Chapman.

I believe any team that is on pace to win 95+ games right now and has the resources to make themselves better should do exactly what the Cubs did for Chapman (and what the Indians did for Miller btw). You simply don't win the world series right now unless you overload your team with talent to cover every potential eventuality. It will get even more important this year now that the waiver wire deadline no longer exists.

I'm skeptical about the very notion of a team like the White Sox achieving "Sustained competitiveness" or whatever we call it, because I think once you get close enough in this market, where you are likely to be facing a 1100+ win superteam at least once in the playoffs, you sacrifice your team 3 years down the road to win the trophy while you can.

Jalen Beeks is one of Tampa's many young pitchers, we'll see if he has success this year or not. The Red Sox gave him up for Eovaldi.  How key was that move for them winning last year's title? 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

 

Your whole argument is we are wrong to elevate Theo even though he ended the sport's 2 longest Championship droughts and in a relatively short time. Tell me how, compared to the FO we have in place, we should not admire what he has done and wish we had a mind like his in our FO? Because he would have signed a few bad FA's trying to take his young,talented teams over the top?  The worst stretch of Theo's career was only after he had already won 2 WS in Boston.

What? 

I said he's not a god among men in the GAME, not in the city. I have no idea how you can quote both posts, then highlight my last sentence, and still misrepresent what I said. I pointed out that even one of baseball's BEST GM's struggles mightily in free agency. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

Theo also drafted a couple of MVPs.

One in the second round in 2004.

The White Sox 4 picks before Pedroia was taken..Josh Fields, Gio Gonzalez, Wes Whisler, and Donny Lucy.

And their 5 picks before Theo picked Mookie Betts in round 5

Walker, Johnson, Soptic, McMillen, Snodgrass. 

It was always a built in excuse the White Sox with their mediocre record  couldn't draft well because they didn't draft high enough. Even this rebuild is OK taking longer even though they had a top 3 pick in Rodon a couple of years before it started and Collins was a guy Hostetler said he would have taken had he had pick #1. 

Rick Hahn is a smart guy. But as a major league GM, he's lacking. The results are there for everyone to see. 

Yes, I have complimented Theo's drafting abilities of the past, and explained how Theo was able to acquire such high level talent later in the draft. Theo saw a loophole in how the draft system was set up, exploited it, and completely dominated the offensive landscape of baseball for nearly a decade because of it.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The Cubs absolutely paid a premium price for Chapman.

I believe any team that is on pace to win 95+ games right now and has the resources to make themselves better should do exactly what the Cubs did for Chapman (and what the Indians did for Miller btw). You simply don't win the world series right now unless you overload your team with talent to cover every potential eventuality. It will get even more important this year now that the waiver wire deadline no longer exists.

I'm skeptical about the very notion of a team like the White Sox achieving "Sustained competitiveness" or whatever we call it, because I think once you get close enough in this market, where you are likely to be facing a 1100+ win superteam at least once in the playoffs, you sacrifice your team 3 years down the road to win the trophy while you can.

Jalen Beeks is one of Tampa's many young pitchers, we'll see if he has success this year or not. The Red Sox gave him up for Eovaldi.  How key was that move for them winning last year's title? 

This just isn't true.

Last year the Boston Red Sox in a 7 game series vs the Chicago White Sox would have been -420 or so. That means that 2 out of 10 years, if the White Sox were in the World Series last year, they would have won the World Series. If you want to say -500, which would be really high, fine... so 1 out of 10 times. The Giants just won a World Series 5 years ago as the 8th or 9th best team in the game. 

You do not need to trade elite, controllable talent for a rental reliever to win. 

You can't asses a trade with as much FV as that one by focusing on a singular outcome. You trade players, not outcomes.

As for your last point; Boston won 113 games or whatever... they didn't need Eovaldi to win a World Series. He was AWESOME, but the assumption you continue to make is that if he didn't pitch, the guy who would have would've blown the game and the series. The Red Sox won a ton of games because they are a collection of parts that all contributed. They had a lot of players who could contribute and step up.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[TheTruth05]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What? 

I said he's not a god among men in the GAME, not in the city. I have no idea how you can quote both posts, then highlight my last sentence, and still misrepresent what I said. I pointed out that even one of baseball's BEST GM's struggles mightily in free agency. 

I understand your point but to act like you're not trying to indirectly defend Hahn for his FA misfires by highlighting another VERY SUCCESSFUL GM's FA record is what I don't get. The point is Epstein has been able to create multiple competitive teams all while having big mistakes with FAs, meanwhile Hahn hasn't been able to build a a competitive team to date through the system or FA.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This just isn't true.

Last year the Boston Red Sox in a 7 game series vs the Chicago White Sox would have been -420 or so. That means that 2 out of 10 years, if the White Sox were in the World Series last year, they would have won the World Series. The Giants just won a World Series 5 years ago as the 8th or 9th best team in the game. 

You do not need to trade elite, controllable talent for a rental reliever to win. 

The only way you would treat a regular season betting line as relevant to how the playoffs have gone the last several years is if you haven't watched the games. Those series have been heavyweight bouts. The quality of the 25th man on the roster has determined games.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

I understand your point but to act like you're not trying to indirectly defend Hahn for his FA misfires by highlighting another VERY SUCCESSFUL GM's FA record is what I don't get. The point is Epstein has been able to create multiple competitive teams all while having big mistakes with FAs, meanwhile Hahn hasn't been able to build a a competitive team to date through the system or FA.

Yes, I'm indirectly defending Hahn by calling all his moves abysmal.

My goodness. 

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, I have complimented Theo's drafting abilities of the past, and explained how Theo was able to acquire such high level talent later in the draft. Theo saw a loophole in how the draft system was set up, exploited it, and completely dominated the offensive landscape of baseball for nearly a decade because of it.

He is good at the draft. Has made several good trades. Has missed on some free agents, but, if you are going to have sustained success, most of those teams do miss on free agents and are in a postion to handle it. If we are expecting sustained success from the White Sox, they better be prepared to outright miss big once in while or wind up paying guys past their primes, which right now, seems like they are not since they wouldn't with Machado. 

They are in a bad division that with Illich dead probably means they are in the only spot they can win for a while without spending tons, but they need new evaluators.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The only way you would treat a regular season betting line as relevant to how the playoffs have gone the last several years is if you haven't watched the games. Those series have been heavyweight bouts. The quality of the 25th man on the roster has determined games.

That would have been the series price - as I said, I'll add 80 cents because of the aura of the post-season - but that was the series priced based on all the statistical outcomes last year. No one is more than -500 vs another MLB team in a 7 game series. The less scoring in your game and the more players, the more susceptible it is to extreme variance impacting individual outcomes. 

Teams that aren't very good can still win World Series. Hell, the Royals team that got their the first year flat out wasn't very good.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He is good at the draft. Has made several good trades. Has missed on some free agents, but, if you are going to have sustained success, most of those teams do miss on free agents and are in a postion to handle it. If we are expecting sustained success from the White Sox, they better be prepared to outright miss big once in while or wind up paying guys past their primes, which right now, seems like they are not since they wouldn't with Machado. 

They are in a bad division that with Illich dead probably means they are in the only spot they can win for a while without spending tons, but they need new evaluators.

As I said, Theo has not been nearly as good in the draft. Kris Bryant fell into his lap... after Bryant, what Cub has he drafted that is good?