Why Preller >>> Hahn

[caulfield12]

He (Preller) made numerous transactions over the 2014-2015 offseason in what came to be known as "Prellerpalooza." He traded Yasmani Grandal to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Matt Kemp and Tim Federowicz. He partook in a three team trade for Wil Myers and Ryan Hanigan. He traded prospects to the Braves for Justin Upton. He signed James Shields to a 4-year contract. He made several smaller moves as well, as he launched the Padres into playoff talks before the season began. He concluded the offseason by trading for Braves closer Craig Kimbrel just hours before the season opened on April 5.

Despite his off-season trades, the Padres in June 2015 were still under performing. This has partially led to the firing of manager, Bud Black, on June 15, 2015.

On September 15, 2016, Preller was suspended for 30 days by MLB without pay for failing to disclose medical information, regarding the trade that sent Drew Pomeranz to the Red Sox.^{[9] wikipedia.com}

 

To acquire Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Derek Norris, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp for the 2015 season, the Padres coughed up prospects Trea Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Joe Ross, Mallex Smith, Max Fried, Jesse Hahn, Matt Wisler and Jake Bauers. Each of those players has already played in the majors, and Turner looks like a star in the making. The Padres also gave up a competitive balance pick to the Braves that turned into top-50 prospect Austin Riley.

Nevertheless, Kimbrel had a 1.5 fWAR, Upton a 3.4 fWAR, Derek Norris a 2.4 fWAR, Wil Myers (5.4/3 seasons for average of 1.8), James Shields (-0.1 for Padres and Sox in 2015/16) and Matt Kemp (1.9 over 2015/16).

 

Of course, as we well know, Shields sucked, and so did Kemp...but at least he proved that he wasn’t totally incompetent in adding veterans to a team, unlike Rick Hahn.

Preller would of course go on to convince Hahn to part with Fernando Tatis, Jr., in the ill-fated James Shields trade that in retrospect marked the beginning of the rebuild for the White Sox...even though we didn’t know it at the time.

 

The biggest points to take away from this ongoing debacle:

1) Preller proved he could recover from a near death blow to management’s confidence in him by rebounding from trying to jump the gun on competing and getting the go-ahead to spend more money on Latin American free agents than any team in history, which had been his original plan (much like Hahn being forced to “compete on the fly” all along.)  The same experiment quickly failed in SD and was scrapped after less than two seasons, whereas the White Sox experiment with the wing and a prayer approach of B and C Tier free agents and trades for guys like Samardzija and Frazier went on basically from 2010 through 2016, a full year years without a course correction.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/padres-got-what-they-paid-for-in-suspended-a-j-preller-091516

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/padres-front-office-split-on-a-j-preller.html

 

2)  Despite all of his scandals and detractors , Preller persevered and maintained the confidence of his management group...and quickly established his bonafides by adding Tatis, Jr., to a group that would quickly become the top-ranked farm system of nearly every evaluation service out there.  Hahn took three Top 50 talents in the game, including a future Hall of Fame pitcher...and turned them into anywhere from the 4th to 13th ranked farm system in the game, and that includes the cloud of uncertainty that is hanging over Michael Kopech, an arm injury waiting to happen that PTAC called out months in advance (we won’t go into Moncada and Giolito.)

 

3)  Preller won over Machado, Lozano and his ownership group by taking the most logical path...securing a superstar player in his prime for his age 26-30 seasons, but leaving the door open for that player to outperform his contract and go on to greener pastures, when an impressive farm system would be well-prepared to replace him (and opening up payroll for extending their young core players.)

Hahn, on the other hand, apparently scared Reinsdorf with his history of free agent ineptitude into believing that Machado was more likely to end up like Heyward or Yu Darvish...it was this willingness of Preller to bet on Machado, instead of wading year after year through bargain-basement free agents, that eventually separated the men from the boys.

Hahn is Mr. Risk Aversion, so he pretty much fits in perfectly with JR...it’s all about capital preservation, versus being a visionary.  Btw, KW and Paddy are actually the ones who were responsible for the likes of Jose Abreu and Luis Robert.

Hahn was also decidedly wrong in his assessments of Alex Gordon, Masahiro Tanaka, Yoenis Cespedes...it’s understandable why JR wasn’t able to trust Hahn completely with such an abysmal FA track record.

 

4)   “I agree completely with the opt out. If they indeed put forth an offer of 8 for $250m, then 10 for $300 was actually an 8 year discount. If he opts out after 5, you save money during the 5 years, you make your fanbase happy, you increase attendance for 5 years, you jumpstart the rebuild, you get a gold glove all star at a position where you don't have a lot of minor league prospects for 5 years,  you don't even come close to having to pay him for years 9 and 10, and you don't even come close to the "$300 million level."

Hard to see how that is "exclusively beneficial to the player.”   HeHatesShe, February 20th, 2019

Hahn has to be able to see this from beyond the point of view or perspective of ownership versus player.  It’s three dimensional chess, not two-dimensional checkers.  Unsurprisingly, he never took the fans into consideration, at least they weren't foremost in his thinking process.  He also should have had enough confidence in his own staff/scouts/development guys that they already had their potential 3B in the system to effectively (and certainly more cheaply) replace Machado...because that’s the entire point of a farm system, right?

The fact is the Padres would love for Machado to play so well for a half decade that he opts out.  If they haven't won a championship by 2023, then the whole thing was doomed to fail anyway, right?

 

5)  If it’s not Machado or Harper at age 26, when on God’s green earth is the right time to strike ever going to occur with a premier free agent?  When is the risk/reward or opportunity cost going to be 100% to the advantage of the club versus the player and his agent?

Paralysis by analysis.  We don’t need lawyers or businessmen, we need leaders who will articulate a vision for the future and stick to it.

We’ve done the exact opposite in all of our garbage moves for veterans this offseason.  None of them are likely to help the Chicago White Sox in their stated goal of building a championship-caliber roster.

 

6) They then compounded their error by saying that they were out on Bryce Harper...gifting him to the Phillies at a rate that's going to be $20-60 million below what they were expecting to pay when this entire process of free agency for these two guys kicked off in October.

WHY WHY WHY would you want to help a competitor like that, even if they're in another league...they might be a future World Series opponent.

Was it not bad enough to help out the Indians from their financial vise by taking a 740 OPS-ing DH coming off a terrible 2nd half?  Apparently not.

 

Edited February 21, 2019 by caulfield12

[Sox72]

Or - because he got Machado. 

[JoshPR]

No 300 million convinced machado not preller

[Buehrle>Wood]

Preller is an awful gm. Just because he beat the Sox a couple times doesn't change that

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, JoshPR said:

No 300 million convinced machado not preller

The difference is that Preller convinced a much poorer ownership group to fork over that guaranteed commitment of $300 million...either Hahn doesn’t have that gene of persuasion in him like KW (what happened to the Hahn of the Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche series of signings?) or he’s just completely neutered and basically the equivalent of Jed Hoyer in terms of real power in the Sox organization.

[ptatc]

They both suck until one of them actually wins something. 

[caulfield12]

Just now, Buehrle>Wood said:

Preller is an awful gm. Just because he beat the Sox a couple times doesn't change that

Tatis, Jr., the undisputed best farm system in the business, the most knowledge of Latin America dating back to his time with the Rangers and now the Machado signing would all argue otherwise.

In what area is Rick Hahn demonstrably better?   Talking to the media for thirty full minutes without actually saying anything?

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

They both suck until one of them actually wins something. 

Would we ever get to the playoffs in the same division as the Dodgers, realistically?

[ptatc]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Would we ever get to the playoffs in the same division as the Dodgers, realistically?

Doesn't matter. Their job is to win at the MLB level. Both look to have made good acquisitions and are on the right path. But until they win at the MLB level the are not a success. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Doesn't matter. Their job is to win at the MLB level. Both look to have made good acquisitions and are on the right path. But until they win at the MLB level the are not a success. 

We claim to win the offseason every year...yet that somehow hasn’t even gotten us past 75 wins.

[Moan4Yoan]

8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Doesn't matter. Their job is to win at the MLB level. Both look to have made good acquisitions and are on the right path. But until they win at the MLB level the are not a success. 

It’s pretty obvious that Preller has completely duped Hahn twice.  I don’t see how someone couldn’t admit this.  Preller robbed Hahn and the Sox of an established franchise player for money alone and another potential franchise player for the used up corpse of James Shields.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Harper2Sox

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We claim to win the offseason every year...yet that somehow hasn’t even gotten us past 75 wins.

Correct. So it's a failure so far. Good plans need to have results. Doesn't have to be world series but it needs to have regular competition for a playoff spot.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Harper2Sox said:

It’s pretty obvious that Preller has completely duped Hahn twice.  I don’t see how someone couldn’t admit this.  Preller robbed Hahn and the Sox of an established franchise player for money alone and another potential franchise player for the used up corpse of James Shields.

I think you should hang onto that member name even after he signs with the Phillies...as a constant reminder of what could have been.

[Moan4Yoan]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I think you should hang onto that member name even after he signs with the Phillies...as a constant reminder of what could have been.

Or maybe I’ll get to change it to AdamJones2Sox?  That seems more accurate to Hahn’s free agent level.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Harper2Sox

[Quin]

Who said this signing was like porn to Caulfield? We've got the new Royals/Puig.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Harper2Sox said:

Or maybe I’ll get to change it to AdamJones2Sox?  That seems more accurate to Hahn’s free agent level.

#FelipePaulinoRoadtoRedemptionVivaLaSox

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Who said this signing was like porn to Caulfield? We've got the new Royals/Puig.

Because I have the opposite 12 hours when people are asleep to stew over this in China...all this venting is helping, at least a little bit,

Probably will turn my ire on Benetti during the regular season.

[mqr]

23 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We claim to win the offseason every year...yet that somehow hasn’t even gotten us past 75 wins.

The Padres have been worse for longer. Preller has nothing to his name but shitty FA signings and a good farm. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Preller is a fantastic talent evaluator.  The guy knows a good baseball player when he sees one.  Hahn is just a smart guy with a lot of advanced degrees who knows absolutely nothing about how to put a baseball team together.  He should have stayed in a courtroom because he's overmatched in a baseball arena.

[bmags]

Preller is a better GM because he runs a phenomenal international scouting system that will fuel the Padres for years. Hahn has shown beyond getting top 5 draft picks in perpetuity he will not be able to supplement this core with players through the traditional means of the draft or international free agency, despite no structural reasons for this issue beside incompetence.

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

Preller is a better GM because he runs a phenomenal international scouting system that will fuel the Padres for years. Hahn has shown beyond getting top 5 draft picks in perpetuity he will not be able to supplement this core with players through the traditional means of the draft or international free agency, despite no structural reasons for this issue beside incompetence.

This is why the rebuild is doomed. They haven't been able to draft anyone worth a shit even with top 10 picks year after year. 

Rodon

Fulmer

Collins

Were all T10 

And they all look like massive disappointments, with Collins and Fulmer approaching bust level. 

The more I hear about Madrigal the more I hate that pick. 

You're supposed to try to hit a HR with your 1st rounder and they're content with a single or double. 

It's pretty clear that JR is incredibly risk averse and surrounds himself with like-minded people. 

 

Edited February 21, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

26 minutes ago, mqr said:

The Padres have been worse for longer. Preller has nothing to his name but shitty FA signings and a good farm. 

They went 8 years without a playoff appearance (2006-13) before Preller even came on board...whereas Hahn’s been around with KW in the same organization for even longer together.

[JoshPR]

That's been the thing I hate most about the sox. Scouting and development has sucked for a long time. And drafting has too. JR never has wanted to spend on draft picks. I think the sox overall problem has been ownership group. I'm not defending Hahn but its hard to convince a guy stubborn as a mule.... 

Edited February 21, 2019 by JoshPR

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, JoshPR said:

That's been the thing I hate most about the sox. Scouting and development has sucked for a long time. And drafting has too. JR never has wanted to spend on draft picks. I think the sox overall problem has been ownership group. I'm not defending Hahn but its hard to convince a guy stubborn as a mule.... 

Isn’t that the GM’s job to articulate for such changes?

Preller was pushed to rebuild on the fly, it flopped...they went huge into Latin American signings and the GM was able to successfully convince a much poorer ownership group to extend themselves.

If it wasn’t just now...when is a similar situation where the stars are perfectly in alignment ever going to arise again?  

Plausible Answer:  When the next George RR Martin Game of Thrones Book comes out.

Edited February 21, 2019 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

When it boils down to it, in 2015 the Sox and the Padres were pretty much the same team. A stars and scrubs roster, that had traded valuable prospects to fill holes with short term rentals and expensive veteran FA. The Padres, so far, have done everything better than the Sox. The Padres have a better farm system than the Sox despite having to entice others to take some of their contracts with assets, and only having one player worth a damn in a rental situation.  The Sox had 3 players on long-term deals, one of them being a top 5 pitcher in the game, and they STILL couldn't do better than the Padres at building a farm system. The Padres also blew it up earlier. Imagine what the Sox could have received in trade if they decided to sell in the 2015-16 offseason? To put the cherry on top, they stole Tatis for the corpse of James Shields and they stole Machado from the Sox by operating in stealth mode. 

Edited February 21, 2019 by Jack Parkman