Perspective

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You’re looking at 2018 only. #30 qualified starter over the last 3 years (Cole Hamels) accumulated 11.0 fWAR (~3.7 per season). I’d take that for the next 5 years with ridiculous flexibility and affordability associated with pre arb and arb players than Eaton and his contract entering his age 28 season and basically a 3.7 fWAR player if not for the outlier 2016 season.

Uh, dude, you selected 4 years and not 3. You started at 2015 and ended at 2018 for 4 seasons. I accidentally found out the mistake you did by clicking that. If you sort by only 3, the #30 starter is Marcus Stroman with 8.4 fWAR. Cole Hamels's 11 fWAR is over the last 4 years, so that's 2.75 per season.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

So yea, top 30 is impressive and extremely valuable for a guy still in his pre arb years.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Oh yea but I’m trying to be realistic for the naysayers. Guys you mentioned are tier 1, although I think some may be realistic targets for WS since it’s a deep FA class.

But they are all older than Machado and Harper so the length of contract shouldn't be as long . The AAV's will probably be roughly the same ,around $30ish M. At those AAV's its possible to score 3-4 guys since payroll commitments for 2020 are about $12.5M if they buy out Castillo and Jones. If they trade Herrera it's down to $4M for Anderson in 2020.

[caulfield12]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The #30 starter last year in fWAR was Rick Porcello with 2.7 fWAR. 

I would not be satisfied with the Eaton trade if the best we got out of it was a guy who averaged 2.7 fWAR per year. I'm not sure I'd be ok with Rick Porcello, who basically averages 2.5 fWAR every year except 1 year randomly dropped 5.2 and won the Cy Young. 

Jon Gray and David Price both tied with Rick Porcello at 2.7 fWAR last year and at least in the regular season both of them were disappointments. Top 30 really isn't that impressive, not given what Eaton should have been worth coming off a 5.8 fWAR season. 

If you look an Eaton's injury history, and the fact that his sky-high fWAR was boosted just as much by defense as offense (the shift from CF to RF, and all the assists he piled up that year)...it's hard to say he wasn't fairly valued, because he wasn't close to a 5.6 fWAR player over the rest of his career seasons.

If he'd had at least TWO years like that, well, you have a better argument.   He looks a lot like Pollock...to the point where you're expecting the lower range of outcomes (1.5-2.5 fWAR due to missed playing time) than the absolute ceiling in the 5-7 range.

Edited February 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Uh, dude, you selected 4 years and not 3. You started at 2015 and ended at 2018 for 4 seasons. I accidentally found out the mistake you did by clicking that. If you sort by only 3, the #30 starter is Marcus Stroman with 8.4 fWAR. Cole Hamels's 11 fWAR is over the last 4 years, so that's 2.75 per season.

Ah you’re right. I did. 2.75 not nearly as impressive. Just goes to show how difficult it is to find reliable starters in today’s game though. Point is, he’s pre arb and to be a top 30 starter in baseball is extremely valuable. Plus, with the direction they were headed in terms of the rebuild, Eaton did not fit their competitor window whereas Lopez still may.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

If you look an Eaton's injury history, and the fact that his sky-high fWAR was boosted just as much by defense as offense (the shift from CF to RF, and all the assists he piled up that year)...it's hard to say he wasn't fairly valued, because he wasn't close to a 5.6 fWAR the player over the rest of his career seasons.

If he'd had at least TWO years like that, well, you have a better argument.   He looks a lot like Pollock...to the point where you're expecting the lower range of outcomes (1.5-2.5 fWAR due to missed playing time) than the absolute ceiling in the 5-7 range.

Great point regarding his injury history Caulfield. There was always elevated injury risk with Eaton due to his style of play. Give the Sox credit for selling high on him.

[Balta1701]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Ah you’re right. I did. 2.75 not nearly as impressive. Just goes to show how difficult it is to find reliable starters in today’s game though. Point is, he’s pre arb and to be a top 30 starter in baseball is extremely valuable. Plus, with the direction they were headed in terms of the rebuild, Eaton did not fit their competitor window whereas Lopez still may.

While that is true, and it would be nice that he is cheap, put it another way. A guy putting up 2.75 fWAR would be the #5 starter on the 2018 Indians and he would be the #5 starter on the 2018 Astros. That's not awful, but compared to what actual good teams are getting out of their rotations - getting nothing other than that out of Eaton is a path to 0 playoff births any time soon unless our offense is the best in baseball. 

Grumbles something about how nice it would be to have an elite offensive 3b and moves on.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Great point regarding his injury history Caulfield. There was always elevated injury risk with Eaton due to his style of play. Give the Sox credit for selling high on him.

If anything, Eaton was an overpay (even with Giolito's star fading) and Sale an underpay because we weren't going to get Devers/Benintendi, but it was basically short "one-half" a prospect from what we should have gotten.  I guess there's still hope for Basabe, though.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Great point regarding his injury history Caulfield. There was always elevated injury risk with Eaton due to his style of play. Give the Sox credit for selling high on him.

You can find me giving Hahn credit for moving Eaton when he did in another thread yesterday, but I cannot say I would be satisfied with getting only 1 middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter out of that deal even if they're pre-arb. Coming off his performance in the previous 3 seasons, even with his injury history, someone should have given up more than that - and hell, the teams thought that deal was almost good enough for Sale until the Red Sox put Moncada on the table. If we just scouted those pitchers that poorly that all we get is 2 busts and one back of the rotation guy...that's a pretty rotten result.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While that is true, and it would be nice that he is cheap, put it another way. A guy putting up 2.75 fWAR would be the #5 starter on the 2018 Indians and he would be the #5 starter on the 2018 Astros. That's not awful, but compared to what actual good teams are getting out of their rotations - getting nothing other than that out of Eaton is a path to 0 playoff births any time soon unless our offense is the best in baseball. 

Grumbles something about how nice it would be to have an elite offensive 3b and moves on.

You’re talking about two of the best starting rotations in baseball. Who were the top starters last year for the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, A’s (actual good teams)?

Edited February 22, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You can find me giving Hahn credit for moving Eaton when he did in another thread yesterday, but I cannot say I would be satisfied with getting only 1 middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter out of that deal even if they're pre-arb. Coming off his performance in the previous 3 seasons, even with his injury history, someone should have given up more than that - and hell, the teams thought that deal was almost good enough for Sale until the Red Sox put Moncada on the table. If we just scouted those pitchers that poorly that all we get is 2 busts and one back of the rotation guy...that's a pretty rotten result.

Dec. 7th, 2016

 

The Chicago White Sox have acquired right-handed pitcher Lucas Giolito, the top-ranked pitching prospect in baseball and No. 3 prospect overall, and right-handers Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning from the Washington Nationals in exchange for outfielder Adam Eaton.

"An important part of the process we are pursuing is acquiring quality pitching talent. We feel like we've done that today -- and yesterday -- en masse," said Rick Hahn, White Sox senior vice president/general manager. "Giolito and Lopez rank among the top prospects in baseball, while Dunning is another young prospect who possesses front-of-the-rotation potential."

 

Even Bryce Harper was absolutely shocked they gave up that much (the perception at the time) for Adam Eaton.

I think we're better off criticizing Colome/Narvaez at this point, as there's no point in belaboring our issues with talent identification and continued development.

 

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, Cashman said:

There is no way anyone can spin this outside of Jerry literally being cheap. I am not buying anything else. He did it, keeping Eloy down for control 7yrs down the line, and he did it in the Machado offer. For the life of me, I am not understand why a 93/94yr old man is worried about the potential of the final 2 years of Machado's contract.

The Eloy thing needs to stop. This franchise would be stupid to waste a prime control year.

[Cashman]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Eloy thing needs to stop. This franchise would be stupid to waste a prime control year.

No, they actually wouldn't. At that point, you would of re-signed him.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Eloy thing needs to stop. This franchise would be stupid to waste a prime control year.

Because we can make the exact same argument about the Cubs and Bryant.  There are too many to count, but bringing up Jimenez in a wasted year isn't one of the Top 100 reasons to be upset with the Chicago White Sox as of today.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Also the 2018 list from fangraphs was based on qualified starters only. If you sort by all starting pitchers regardless of innings pitched the #30 starters were Hendricks (TOR and #1 starter for the mighty 95 win Cubs) and Happ. Both accumulated a fWAR of 3.2 last season. Again, if Lopez is that starting this year and for the next five years, the Eaton trade is absolutely a win based on that production alone.

[Jack Parkman]

For Lopez to be a TOR starter, he has to put up a few 4.5+ fWAR seasons. 

Edited February 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You can find me giving Hahn credit for moving Eaton when he did in another thread yesterday, but I cannot say I would be satisfied with getting only 1 middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter out of that deal even if they're pre-arb. Coming off his performance in the previous 3 seasons, even with his injury history, someone should have given up more than that - and hell, the teams thought that deal was almost good enough for Sale until the Red Sox put Moncada on the table. If we just scouted those pitchers that poorly that all we get is 2 busts and one back of the rotation guy...that's a pretty rotten result.

I think it’s a bit premature to say we got 2 busts and one back of the rotation guy. This won’t be decided until another couple years at least. Lopez showed last year he’s already a capable mid rotation starter with TOR potential (2.0 fWAR in first full season, not too shabby), Dunning is still a top 100 prospect, and Gio is still a wild card. 

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Cashman said:

No, they actually wouldn't. At that point, you would of re-signed him.

Why risk it? You control it. That's just a waste of your assets.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

For Lopez to be a TOR starter, he has to put up a few 4.5+ fWAR seasons. 

4.5 would have made him the #12 starter in MLB last year. That’s elite. I guess I’ve always thought of TOR as a top 30 guy (a top guy for every MLB team if every team was creating a roster from scratch today).

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

4.5 would have made him the #12 starter in MLB last year. That’s elite. I guess I’ve always thought of TOR as a top 30 guy (a top guy for every MLB team if every team was creating a roster from scratch today).

Lopez will be a TOR guy in the same way that Quintana was...."under the radar," but (hopefully) just as effective, granted, he has the "bigger" or flashier stuff but it's sometimes hard for him to consistently maintain it.

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Lopez will be a TOR guy in the same way that Quintana was...."under the radar," but (hopefully) just as effective, granted, he has the "bigger" or flashier stuff but it's sometimes hard for him to consistently maintain it.

Quintana put up 5 seasons of 3.5+ fWAR, and 3>4.5. 

Edited February 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Quintana put up 3 seasons of 3.9+ fWAR

And yet nobody outside of die-hard White Sox fans, MLB front office staff and sabes/fantasy league owners perceived him as an All-Star caliber pitcher.  

Of course, all it took was Theo...despite his numbers tailing off pretty dramatically.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And yet nobody outside of die-hard White Sox fans, MLB front office staff and sabes/fantasy league owners perceived him as an All-Star caliber pitcher.  

Of course, all it took was Theo...despite his numbers tailing off pretty dramatically.

That actually wasn't accurate. From 2013-17 he put up 3.5+ fWAR each season, peaking with 5.1 in 2015. 

Edited February 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That actually wasn't accurate. From 2013-17 he put up 3.5+ fWAR each season, peaking with 5.1 in 2015. 

One of Cashman's greatest mistakes in the last decade, along with the Contreras/Loaiza trade back in 2004.

Edited February 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And yet nobody outside of die-hard White Sox fans, MLB front office staff and sabes/fantasy league owners perceived him as an All-Star caliber pitcher.  

Of course, all it took was Theo...despite his numbers tailing off pretty dramatically.

Q absolutely WAS a TOR starter, key word was. He alone was evidence that a controllable TOR starter (even if not elite) has more value than what Eaton had at the end of the 2016 season. Eloy+Cease had more value than Gio+Lopez+Dunning at the time of the respective trades. Eloy was already a top 10 prospect and Cease was breaking into the top 100, both with major helium. Gio and Lopez were top 100 prospects at the time but Gio’s shine was fading fast after his rough MLB debut and Dunning was a borderline top 100. Lopez was considered by many to be a future reliever and was the only one that most Nats fans were disappointed to give up in the deal.