Giolito's latest tweaks

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What stretch? He's a big league pitcher, every big league pitcher can throw 2 or 3 good games. 

Giolito's BEST month, was a 3.86 ERA. He looked pretty good in September - he didn't look like a #2 starter though.

I wasn't talking about results, I was talking about talent/stuff. We all know the results weren't there last year. The talent is still there. It is a matter of whether or not he learns to harness it. My defense of him is based on talent and not results. He's too talented to punt on him at 24. That is my argument and that is and always has been my point. In July and August last year the dude had games where he was electric. Even if successful, he's probably going to max out at 170-180 ks. What you're looking for is weak contact early in the count and command. 

[wegner]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What stretch? He's a big league pitcher, every big league pitcher can throw 2 or 3 good games. 

Giolito's BEST month, was a 3.86 ERA. He looked pretty good in September - he didn't look like a #2 starter though.

Does it kill the rebuild if Giolito is not a top of the rotation starter?  In my humble opinion, no.  But if he is not at least a capable #4 who can eat up innings, it sure does not help especially if Dunning is not the pitcher I thought he might be.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, wegner said:

Does it kill the rebuild if Giolito is not a top of the rotation starter?  In my humble opinion, no.  But if he is not at least a capable #4 who can eat up innings, it sure does not help especially if Dunning is not the pitcher I thought he might be.

Not at all. I actually don't think they need him at all, but it would be a huge boost and an unexpected outcome if he figures it out (he won't). 

Lopez, Rodon, Cease, Kopech and then one of the Lambert/Dunning/Stephens/FA/Hansen guys could pan out that would be more than solid. They have options.

Edited March 1, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[wegner]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not at all. I actually don't think they need him at all, but it would be a huge boost and an unexpected outcome if he figures it out (he won't). 

Lopez, Rodon, Cease, Kopech and then one of the Lambert/Dunning/Stephens/FA/Hansen guys could pan out that would be more than solid. They have options.

Great to hear the confidence, Ray.  It does seem that we have some nice starting pitching depth in the minors.

What do I know?...I actually think that Carson Fullmer is going to be an important part of our bullpen in a year or two ?

[SoxBlanco]

37 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What stretch? He's a big league pitcher, every big league pitcher can throw 2 or 3 good games. 

Giolito's BEST month, was a 3.86 ERA. He looked pretty good in September - he didn't look like a #2 starter though.

I'm talking about the stretch from June 22 through August 30. That's over two months where he looked great. That June 22 game against Oakland stands out to me because I remember thinking, "Finally! He actually looks great tonight." The final line might not show it, but he had given up 2 runs through 7 innings and Ricky let him go back out there for the 8th. First two batters got on, and then he was pulled. The bullpen gave up both inherited runners, so his final line was 7 IP, 4 ER. Giolito was awesome that night. He then followed up that start with a stretch of 9 out of 12 quality starts. The ERA doesn't tell the whole story because he got lit up for 7 runs in two of those games, but go back and watch his games against Houston and particularly Boston during that stretch. Two of the best teams in the AL, and Giolito was great against them. He had other great games during those two months as well, but those two stand out to me because of the quality of the opponent.

[EloyJenkins]

A number 2 in the American league is a 3.50 era guy most of the time. If he peaks at a #3 dude with 3.80 ish stuff that is a pretty good return considering we got another top 4 starter and a potential #3 if he doesn't need TJ for Adam Eaton.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, EloyJenkins said:

A number 2 in the American league is a 3.50 era guy most of the time. If he peaks at a #3 dude with 3.80 ish stuff that is a pretty good return considering we got another top 4 starter and a potential #3 if he doesn't need TJ for Adam Eaton.

This is how I categorize it in the AL:

Ace: ERA<3.15 most years and 210+K

#2: ERA of 3.15-3.40 and 180-200K 

#3 ERA of 3.50-3.80 and  ~160-175K 

#4: ERA hovering around 4.00 plus/minus 0.2 and~140-160K 

#5: ERA 4.25+ and <140K

So I guess by my own standards, Giolito would top out as a very good #3 if he reaches what I think his potential is. I think it is possible for him to eclipse the 180K mark but unlikely. 

 

Edited March 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[EloyJenkins]

18 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is how I categorize it in the AL:

Ace: ERA<3.15 most years and 210+K

#2: ERA of 3.15-3.40 and 180-200K 

#3 ERA of 3.50-3.80 and  ~160-175K 

#4: ERA hovering around 4.00 plus/minus 0.2 and~140-160K 

#5: ERA 4.25+ and <140K

So I guess by my own standards, Giolito would top out as a very good #3 if he reaches what I think his potential is. I think it is possible for him to eclipse the 180K mark but unlikely. 

 

Yeah this looks fair. I think he will peak at a 3, but be a 4 for the next several seasons. If all our pitching prospects hit his place will be shaky especially if we go after Cole or Sale in FA...but after this off season I don't know what to think anymore

[TaylorStSox]

Gio is probably the best example I can think of how over-coaching + borderline OCD can really screw a pitcher up. At this point, I'd tell him to just unleash it in the most comfortable way possible. He's close to having nothing to lose anyway. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

#10 in fWAR for all MLB pitchers. Seems the latest tweaks worked...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lucas-giolito-attacks-his-weaknesses/

[SoxBlanco]

Loving this thread...some pretty hot takes.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

Loving this thread...some pretty hot takes.

Crow tastes good when the reason I'm eating it is a good thing for the white sox.

[ron883]

We need to hire his high school hitting coach and fire Coop

[ron883]

https://www.mlb.com/video/giolito-tosses-shuout-vs-astros

 

He had everything going last night. At about the 22 second mark, he gets a strikeout then weak contact I believe (from my memory. Not trying to burn data on the train). Was that his curve ball? It looks slurvey almost. 

[Kyyle23]

Gio is an ace and Tilson will bat .280 with 40 sb

[bmags]

I don't have any problem with my statements.

[poppysox]

On 2/28/2019 at 2:37 PM, Jack Parkman said:

Exactly. He's been trying to pick up the pieces ever since. He's 100% a project and everyone that has expected quick results or his former top prospect status has been disappointed, and have written him off already. Nobody is willing to be patient with the guy and he has always been a complete wild card. Last year he proved he still has good enough stuff to be a #2, but now it is all about throwing strikes and him learning to pitch. The Sox aren't dumb, and they aren't going to punt on him until they're left with no choice. IMO he has to figure it out within the next two seasons, otherwise he's going to be the victim of a numbers game.  I feel like I'm the only poster here that understands this and actually takes a rational approach. Most others  wouldn't have cared if they cut him last June.  The most likely scenario was exactly what has happened so far. You have to hope he turns it around over the next year or two. If these tweaks click, watch out. 

Jack can say he was right.  Good job!

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

On 2/28/2019 at 1:51 PM, OneDog847 said:

Yep. 2019 is another tank year anyway. Let him get 25 to 30 starts and evaluate again at the end of the year. 

If he is terrible again like last year he will help the Sox lose games and get another top 3 pick. If he takes a step forward the Sox may have a legit #5 starter to work with or someone to sell high on and trade next offseason. 

I’m glad you’re not GM

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

On 2/28/2019 at 1:37 PM, Jack Parkman said:

Exactly. He's been trying to pick up the pieces ever since. He's 100% a project and everyone that has expected quick results or his former top prospect status has been disappointed, and have written him off already. Nobody is willing to be patient with the guy and he has always been a complete wild card. Last year he proved he still has good enough stuff to be a #2, but now it is all about throwing strikes and him learning to pitch. The Sox aren't dumb, and they aren't going to punt on him until they're left with no choice. IMO he has to figure it out within the next two seasons, otherwise he's going to be the victim of a numbers game.  I feel like I'm the only poster here that understands this and actually takes a rational approach. Most others  wouldn't have cared if they cut him last June.  The most likely scenario was exactly what has happened so far. You have to hope he turns it around over the next year or two. If these tweaks click, watch out. 

Jack, I commend you. I have also been a Gio supporter but not nearly to the degree you have put yourself out there with him. Between TA, Moncada, and Gio, I think the fan base is starting to realize that development is not linear and not everyone needs to shine upon first arrival in order to achieve their potential and become core members of the next contending team. A good lesson for all that patience is needed with young prospects that are still developing at the big league level.

[mqr]

22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Jack, I commend you. I have also been a Gio supporter but not nearly to the degree you have put yourself out there with him. Between TA, Moncada, and Gio, I think the fan base is starting to realize that development is not linear and not everyone needs to shine upon first arrival in order to achieve their potential and become core members of the next contending team. A good lesson for all that patience is needed with young prospects that are still developing at the big league level.

I'm normally never out on prospects (I had been carrying water for Tim Anderson for what feels like forever, my dad STILL texts me every time he makes an error), but man I was so down on Giolito. I thought there was maybe a major league starter in there somewhere, but a major league starter in the sense that it would probably be nice to look for someone else. 

This turnaround has been absolutely remarkable. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by mqr

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

I'm normally never out on prospects (I had been carrying water for Tim Anderson for what feels like forever), but man I was so down on Giolito. I thought there was maybe a major league starter in there somewhere, but a major league starter in the sense that it would probably be nice to look for someone else. 

This turnaround has been absolutely remarkable. 

This. 

Ye had been trending down soooooo much and for so long. This wasnt a lack of progression this was flat out regression dating back to his final year in AAA with Washington.

Tim and Yoan always had the signs and flashes - even with the struggles. There was star talent in there. Giolito didn't just look like he was bad, it literally looked like his stuff was just horrible as was his command and his composure. To rebuild all three in one off season goes so far beyond development.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This. 

Ye had been trending down soooooo much and for so long. This wasnt a lack of progression this was flat out regression dating back to his final year in AAA with Washington.

Tim and Yoan always had the signs and flashes - even with the struggles. There was star talent in there. Giolito didn't just look like he was bad, it literally looked like his stuff was just horrible as was his command and his composure. To rebuild all three in one off season goes so far beyond development.

The talent was there with Gio too. You don’t get selected in the first round of the draft and hit top 3 MLB prospect status without talent. Yes, he had been trending down in recent years but so was Tyler Glasnow. Some guys just take a while to click, especially if they are working through mechanical issues. Like Glasnow, the stuff was there but the control wasn’t. Fix the control and now you see the stuff front and center. No one looks good when they are walking nearly 5 per 9 IP and constantly pitching behind in the count.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

42 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The talent was there with Gio too. You don’t get selected in the first round of the draft and hit top 3 MLB prospect status without talent. Yes, he had been trending down in recent years but so was Tyler Glasnow. Some guys just take a while to click, especially if they are working through mechanical issues. Like Glasnow, the stuff was there but the control wasn’t. Fix the control and now you see the stuff front and center. No one looks good when they are walking nearly 5 per 9 IP and constantly pitching behind in the count.

Glasnow and Giolito can not be compared at all. Everytime glasnow was sent down he was the best pitcher in the minor leagues - even as he struggled with command in the big leagues. Giolitos stuff got worse and worse as technology grew and he got to the point where he was flat out bad in AAA.

This whole the stuff was there thing with giolito is nonsense. Glasnow got swinging strikes and strike outs - he just walked people. Giolito was fooling no one - generated bottom 1% swinging strikes and had a k-rate under 6.5 per 9. Those are horrible numbers that do not scream great stuff. His velocity was way down, his breaking stuff had no bite and he was confusing no one.

Everyone in professional baseball has talent. Giolito was broken and envisioning anything near TOR outcomes was illogical at the time based on the data we had but the kid has proved everyone (but for Jack, kudos Jack) wrong so far. Good for him.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chitownsportsfan]

He's gone from a "bad body language" guy with the stuff to match to a composed veteran with ace stuff.  If you saw this coming please provide the lotto numbers for this month's big winners.

[peppers312]

i sometimes HATE coming to this board and read people talk shit about our guys. Giolito has found something positive in his pitching, he's having success with it, so i just don't understand why Sox fans can't be happy about it and support what he's accomplished since coming back from the hamstring injury. 

 

i understand how difficult it is to be a Sox fan, but a lot of you SERIOUSLY need therapy. ?

Edited May 24, 2019 by peppers312