Personal opinions on Sox rebuild pieces.

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So you're saying because of steroids there were older better players to choose from ? Are you saying any success the Sox had in acquiring value on talent in the past means those players were on steroids  ? Free agency has become less productive  compared to what ?

It isn't actually about steroids. It is about how hard pitchers throw on average. Soft tossers who throw 90 as a RHP or 88 as a LHP are rare in today's game. If you're throwing 92 as a RHP you're toast.  If you're throwing 89 as a LHP you're toast. Everyone out of the bullpen throws at least 94. Most throw 96+. The increase in average pitch velocity has altered the game from a veteran's sport to a young man's sport. 31-32 year olds jut can't catch up to fastballs like they used to. This is the biggest and most significant change in the game. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It isn't actually about steroids. It is about how hard pitchers throw on average. Soft tossers who throw 90 as a RHP or 88 as a LHP are rare in today's game. If you're throwing 92 as a RHP you're toast.  If you're throwing 89 as a LHP you're toast. Everyone out of the bullpen throws at least 94. Most throw 96+. The increase in average pitch velocity has altered the game from a veteran's sport to a young man's sport. 31-32 year olds jut can't catch up to fastballs like they used to. This is the biggest and most significant change in the game. 

Want to show me a link that says everyone in an MLB bullpen throws 94 or most 96 MPH ? These hot takes you use as fact  are misleading. K's are not only up because of pitching. You still need to locate the ball and have effective off speed pitches or MLB hitters will crush any fastball if they are sitting on it. Hitters now almost always take big swings . In the past a 2 strike approach meant something different than it does now. Bullpen usage and specialization is also a key factor . The number of pitchers teams use now as compared to being able to use hitters to counter moves is skewed in flavor of pitching.

Here's a hot take. If you have 7 relief pitchers  you should be able to carry 7 offensive bench players  to even up the odds. Hitters fail most of the time any way. but give them more of a fighting chance against the pitching in the era of specialized relief pitching. Why should relief pitching have an advantage built into the game when hitting a baseball is already so hard ?

 

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Want to show me a link that says everyone in an MLB bullpen throws 94 or most 96 MPH ? These hot takes you use as fact  are misleading. K's are not only up because of pitching. You still need to locate the ball and have effective off speed pitches or MLB hitters will crush any fastball if they are sitting on it. Hitters now almost always take big swings . In the past a 2 strike approach meant something different than it does now. Bullpen usage and specialization is also a key factor . The number of pitchers teams use now as compared to being able to use hitters to counter moves is skewed in flavor of pitching.

Here's a hot take. If you have 7 relief pitchers  you should be able to carry 7 offensive bench players  to even up the odds. Hitters fail most of the time any way. but give them more of a fighting chance against the pitching in the era of specialized relief pitching. Why should relief pitching have an advantage built into the game when hitting a baseball is already so hard ?

 

Everybody is probably an exaggeration, but the bullpen pitchers with conventional deliveries throw 94+ The funky delivery guys who used to throw 84-85 throw 89-90. Velocity is up across the board, and it makes it harder to hit. It is harder to square up a breaking ball if it is hung or catch up to a fastball when looking for a breaker when guys throw harder.  

I can't find it, but I think the average relief pitcher throws 95+MPH and the average starter throws 93+MPH now. 

This is an article from 2016. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/increase-in-hard-throwers-is-changing-mlb/c-170046614

The average fastball across the board in MLB in 2018 was 93.6 mph. That means on average, the gun will flash 94 on TV. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trends-to-watch-in-2019/c-304007856

Edited March 7, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[pcq]

Surprised we don't here more about PEDs re velocity and arm injuries. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

32 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Everybody is probably an exaggeration, but the bullpen pitchers with conventional deliveries throw 94+ The funky delivery guys who used to throw 84-85 throw 89-90. Velocity is up across the board, and it makes it harder to hit. It is harder to square up a breaking ball if it is hung or catch up to a fastball when looking for a breaker when guys throw harder.  

I can't find it, but I think the average relief pitcher throws 95+MPH and the average starter throws 93+MPH now. 

This is an article from 2016. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/increase-in-hard-throwers-is-changing-mlb/c-170046614

The average fastball across the board in MLB in 2018 was 93.6 mph. That means on average, the gun will flash 94 on TV. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trends-to-watch-in-2019/c-304007856

The average fastball of a Major League Baseball pitcher reaches a speed of 91 mph. Efastball.com studies pitch velocity at all levels and collects data at all major-league games to reach that conclusion.  https://www.sportsrec.com/501890-the-average-pitching-velocity.html

Also this: At the MLB level, the average fastball velocity around the league, as measured by Baseball Info Solutions (and presented by Fangraphs.com), remained steady at 92.8 mph in 2018.

Of course 4 seam fastballs are faster than 2 seamers so all these things should be taken into consideration . I have no idea if what i posted here is averaging both 2 and 4 seamers.

 

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

On 3/6/2019 at 10:21 AM, Soxbears2001 said:

Moncada is a .236 hitter with no improvement in 2 seasons. Anderson does not even have .300 obp. If those are locks this is not going to work.

Completely agree. Unless things change dramatically for both players (this is possible but not probable), I see nothing in either of these guys that mandates them being chiseled into an every day lineup for a team with a lengthy window of contention.

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

On 3/6/2019 at 12:22 PM, GreatScott82 said:

It's not fun seeing Tim Anderson's low OBP. The reality of the situation is, that's really bad. His defensive metrics are on the rise, but he needs to improve this area of his game or he will simply not pan out. 

He needs improvement everywhere. Offense. Defense. Mental approach. I don't want to rag on any player on the team, but this guy has not flashed future all-star to me or even gotten me to where I would even entertain the thought of him being an all-star. Mediocre, passable SS at best. If we are bragging about him as a core piece, the rebuild is not going well. If he hit the free agent market, imagine what his value would be.

Edited March 8, 2019 by YouGottaBeBleepingMe

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

On 3/6/2019 at 2:14 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Oh please.None of the prospects that we were all so high on have even played 2 full seasons yet while most haven't even seen the majors . Kopech had a brief cup of coffee No Cease No Eloy, Robert, none of the OF prospects . The rebuild failed because Moncada,Giolito and Lopez didn't become instant stars and we didn't sign a whale ?

I am with you. Way too early to judge anything yet. Plus, we have another draft this year picking in the Top 3. So, more help is on the way if they can identify the talent.

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

On 3/6/2019 at 2:48 PM, Chisox378 said:

I will say this once again. The Sox organization, right now, whether its the coaching in the minors, or Steverson the hitting coach, or a bad philisophy by someone in the organization, but right now Sox hitters are programed to hit from .210 to .250 with 5 to 6 times the strikeouts to walks, and hit HRs or strikeout.  Its bad hitting.  The small ball days of Ozzie and good baseball have been replaced with Adam Dunn and Jim Thome philosophy. It doesnt create runs, it doesnt make the defense work, its selfish baseball.

This was why I really liked the last few drafts. They were getting away from the power, strikeout hitters and going with guys who made lots of contact and kept the line moving even if they were not knocking the ball out of the park. I just hope that guys like Madrigal and Gonzalez make it to The Show and get back to baseball instead of all of these "toolsy" guys who metrics gurus talk to me about who have speed and hit sub .250 in A or AA ball.

Edited March 8, 2019 by YouGottaBeBleepingMe

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

On 3/6/2019 at 7:38 PM, pcq said:

Surprised we don't here more about PEDs re velocity and arm injuries. 

LOL. The cheaters are always ahead of the testers. The injuries are tell tale signs of PEDs.

[greg775]

1 hour ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

He needs improvement everywhere. Offense. Defense. Mental approach. I don't want to rag on any player on the team, but this guy has not flashed future all-star to me or even gotten me to where I would even entertain the thought of him being an all-star. Mediocre, passable SS at best. If we are bragging about him as a core piece, the rebuild is not going well. If he hit the free agent market, imagine what his value would be.

It's a huge season for him. He's had the seasoning. It's time to rake. If he has a poor year, he's no longer a prime prospect. If he has an all-star year, well that's sort of what you'd expect this season. Again, it's Timmy time.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Anderson is having a fantastic spring. Not that it means anything given that they're just exhibition games, but it's nice to see regardless. Hoping this is the year where he takes a big leap.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

He needs improvement everywhere. Offense. Defense. Mental approach. I don't want to rag on any player on the team, but this guy has not flashed future all-star to me or even gotten me to where I would even entertain the thought of him being an all-star. Mediocre, passable SS at best. If we are bragging about him as a core piece, the rebuild is not going well. If he hit the free agent market, imagine what his value would be.

His defense was well above average defensively last year despite a slow start. Continuing to improve would mean he becomes an elite defensive SS. 

Tim was a 50-70th ranked prospect. If he turns into a constant all star he far exceeded expectations. If hes a 3+ WAR SS for a few years he outperformed prospects that were similarly ranked.

Tim is literally the least of the white Sox concerns and still has a chance to be perhaps to he surprisingly really good. More than likely he'll be at least average which would be fine.

I do think he has a really big year though. 4+ WAR.

Edited March 8, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[hogan873]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

His defense was well above average defensively last year despite a slow start. Continuing to improve would mean he becomes an elite defensive SS. 

Tim was a 50-70th ranked prospect. If he turns into a constant all star he far exceeded expectations. If hes a 3+ WAR SS for a few years he outperformed prospects that were similarly ranked.

Tim is literally the least of the white Sox concerns and still has a chance to be perhaps to he surprisingly really good. More than likely he'll be at least average which would be fine.

I do think he has a really big year though. 4+ WAR.

In my opinion, Anderson is underrated.  His defense is improving, and he's already shown that he can make some very difficult plays at SS.  He was a 20/20 guy last season, I don't see any reason why he won't be a perennial 20/20 guy.  I'm not a big WAR guy, but it you want to look at it, he was at 2.5 last season.  As you pointed out, is he ends up being a 3+ WAR player year after year, he'd be exceeding expectations...at least expectations of folks other than rabid fans who demand he be the best SS in the game.

He's not a concern for the Sox right now.  I believe that as the team around him improves, he will be even more valuable.

[pcq]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

His defense was well above average defensively last year despite a slow start. Continuing to improve would mean he becomes an elite defensive SS. 

Tim was a 50-70th ranked prospect. If he turns into a constant all star he far exceeded expectations. If hes a 3+ WAR SS for a few years he outperformed prospects that were similarly ranked.

Tim is literally the least of the white Sox concerns and still has a chance to be perhaps to he surprisingly really good. More than likely he'll be at least average which would be fine.

I do think he has a really big year though. 4+ WAR.

I thought he made strides and may be ready to step up. Needs better selection at the plate. Moncada who knows. 

[TaylorStSox]

When I think of the long list of White Sox problems, it takes really long time until I get to Tim Anderson. At the very worst, he's adequate. 

Edited March 8, 2019 by TaylorStSox

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

It's a huge season for him. He's had the seasoning. It's time to rake. If he has a poor year, he's no longer a prime prospect. If he has an all-star year, well that's sort of what you'd expect this season. Again, it's Timmy time.

Agree. Huge season for him. People seem to forget that he is in the same draft class as Kris Bryant and Aaron Judge. He is not a "prospect" anymore. Trust me. I pull for all guys who put on a White Sox uniform. I have nothing personal against Anderson. If he is as good as the goods people are selling me, I would have expected more by now. I was not expecting Bryant or Judge production as those guys are just indisputably better players. For a former first round pick, I would expect something to hang my hat on about his long term prospects more than meh.

Edited March 8, 2019 by YouGottaBeBleepingMe

[YouGottaBeBleepingMe]

10 hours ago, Whitesox27 said:

Anderson is having a fantastic spring. Not that it means anything given that they're just exhibition games, but it's nice to see regardless. Hoping this is the year where he takes a big leap.

In 2008, the Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the pre-season before going 0-16 in the regular season.

[mqr]

16 minutes ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Agree. Huge season for him. People seem to forget that he is in the same draft class as Kris Bryant and Aaron Judge. He is not a "prospect" anymore. Trust me. I pull for all guys who put on a White Sox uniform. I have nothing personal against Anderson. If he is as good as the goods people are selling me, I would have expected more by now. I was not expecting Bryant or Judge production as those guys are just indisputably better players. For a former first round pick, I would expect something to hang my hat on about his long term prospects more than meh.

He was the 17th overall pick, not the first. Getting an everyday major leaguer at that spot is always a win. 

[bmags]

23 minutes ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Agree. Huge season for him. People seem to forget that he is in the same draft class as Kris Bryant and Aaron Judge. He is not a "prospect" anymore. Trust me. I pull for all guys who put on a White Sox uniform. I have nothing personal against Anderson. If he is as good as the goods people are selling me, I would have expected more by now. I was not expecting Bryant or Judge production as those guys are just indisputably better players. For a former first round pick, I would expect something to hang my hat on about his long term prospects more than meh.

Eh, even so Tim Anderson in a redraft of 2013 would probably be a top 3 pick.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Eh, even so Tim Anderson in a redraft of 2013 would probably be a top 3 pick.

I think  I'd still have him after Jon Gray, but he'd be top 5. 

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I think  I'd still have him after Jon Gray, but he'd be top 5. 

I also want to get out of this inevitable response (yours was fair, I decided going forward I'd be more confident in value out of anderson), but I think only round 1 picks should be allowed for a redraft, so I don't want Cody Bellinger thrown in my face.

 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I also want to get out of this inevitable response (yours was fair, I decided going forward I'd be more confident in value out of anderson), but I think only round 1 picks should be allowed for a redraft, so I don't want Cody Bellinger thrown in my face.

 

I'll admit that I missed Bellinger so now I have to go look up what round he went in.

[OmarComing25]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'll admit that I missed Bellinger so now I have to go look up what round he went in.

Round 4, pick 124

[OmarComing25]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

I also want to get out of this inevitable response (yours was fair, I decided going forward I'd be more confident in value out of anderson), but I think only round 1 picks should be allowed for a redraft, so I don't want Cody Bellinger thrown in my face.

 

Even including the other rounds he's still probably top 5 from that draft.