Personal opinions on Sox rebuild pieces.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Soxbears2001 said:

Moncada is a .236 hitter with no improvement in 2 seasons. Anderson does not even have .300 obp. If those are locks this is not going to work.

It's fun when people cite batting average as some doomsday stat.

[GreatScott82]

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's fun when people cite batting average as some doomsday stat.

It's not fun seeing Tim Anderson's low OBP. The reality of the situation is, that's really bad. His defensive metrics are on the rise, but he needs to improve this area of his game or he will simply not pan out. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

The huge issue is that they don't want to pay the price to augment the team through FA. Any outside help is going to come from the bargain bin. One of the pitchers they have absolutely has to become a TOR pitcher otherwise they are fucked. In other words, if Kopech isn't an ace they're fucked. 

I somewhat disagree on the first part.  I think they’re willing to spend money, but they won’t do what it takes to land a guy like Sale or Cole.  To me, that makes an older guy like Verlander our best money where we can spend big but on a short term deal.  That also buys you a couple years for Kopech and Cease to develop into your #1 & #2 starters.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I somewhat disagree on the first part.  I think they’re willing to spend money, but they won’t do what it takes to land a guy like Sale or Cole.  To me, that makes an older guy like Verlander our best money where we can spend big but on a short term deal.  That also buys you a couple years for Kopech and Cease to develop into your #1 & #2 starters.

One problem though - a guy like Verlander also might want to go to a team that is an obvious world series contender if the money is equal. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

We literally saw how they blew $45 million this offseason on mostly unnecessary garbage. Extend Abreu, bring in a few other vets, overpay a reliever or two, and there's a $100 million payroll.

Can't say it was all blown. Sox were going to get an innings eater no matter what and relievers to help the young guys develop. Hindsight says  Alonso and Jay was wasted money but if Machado had signed they would be fine. Have to fill the roster, the money's going to be spent somehow. I just have a problem calling it all wasted. Should Hahn make no attempts to get more minor leaguers for anyone ? Should he not try to protect the young arms ? Should he just sign a lot of flotsam and jetsam and run back to Jerry and say "hey Uncle Jer we are going to suck again and I did it for as cheap as I could" ? Does it make a difference how much they spent or wasted this year ?

I really can't believe you're still hurt over this. It's done . All we can do is hope next year is different otherwise it's giving up hope. I can't exist as a fan that way. I can keep my expectations low but to have zero expectations is just plain pitiful.

Edited March 6, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Can't say it was all blown. Sox were going to get an innings eater no matter what and relievers to help the young guys develop. Hindsight says  Alonso and Jay was wasted money but if Machado had signed they would be fine. Have to fill the roster, the money's going to be spent somehow. I just have a problem calling it all wasted. Should Hahn make no attempts to get more minor leaguers for anyone ? Should he not try to protect the young arms ? Should he just sign a lot of flotsam and jetsam and run back to Jerry and say "hey Uncle Jer we are going to suck again and I did it for as cheap as I could" ? Does it make a difference how much they spent or wasted this year ?

I really can't believe you're still hurt over this. It's done . All we can do is hope next year is different otherwise it's giving up hope. I can't exist as a fan that way. I canj keep my expectations low but to have zero expectation is just plain pitiful.

I can think of a cheaper option who we could still sign today (angry 2016 related sigh) and there were a ton of comparable relievers who signed for less than we spent on Colome or Herrera.

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

One problem though - a guy like Verlander also might want to go to a team that is an obvious world series contender if the money is equal. 

This I 100% agree with, which is why my concern is we end getting Bumgarner.

[GermanSoxFan]

47 minutes ago, GreatScott82 said:

It's not fun seeing Tim Anderson's low OBP. The reality of the situation is, that's really bad. His defensive metrics are on the rise, but he needs to improve this area of his game or he will simply not pan out. 

If Tim Anderson develops into the second coming of Alexei Ramirez, we got a hell of a plaxer. ?‍♂️

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Can't say it was all blown. Sox were going to get an innings eater no matter what and relievers to help the young guys develop. Hindsight says  Alonso and Jay was wasted money but if Machado had signed they would be fine. Have to fill the roster, the money's going to be spent somehow. I just have a problem calling it all wasted. Should Hahn make no attempts to get more minor leaguers for anyone ? Should he not try to protect the young arms ? Should he just sign a lot of flotsam and jetsam and run back to Jerry and say "hey Uncle Jer we are going to suck again and I did it for as cheap as I could" ? Does it make a difference how much they spent or wasted this year ?

I really can't believe you're still hurt over this. It's done . All we can do is hope next year is different otherwise it's giving up hope. I can't exist as a fan that way. I canj keep my expectations low but to have zero expectation is just plain pitiful.

I just look at it differently. Hahn has had a really bad record of using free agency to get productive mlb players at any price point, compared to other GMs. This was another offseason where he could show their scouting or decisionmaking has improved, even in looking for short term pieces or even using it to find undervalued assets.

It also lets the same team (front office) off the hook of the bigger picture. 

We had 2 years of major league playing time available to find a power hitting first baseman. 2 years to find an innings eater that isn't great but can give you 180 ip and a 4.5 era. 2 years to find versatile, decent outfielders. These are roles you should be able to find through good scouting and playing time.

2 years with roster space where you can hunt for players through waivers, free agency, rule 5 drafts, trades and of course internal player development.

In that time they provided it to:

Dylan covey, Miguel Gonzalez, Hector Santiago, Manny Banuelos, Carson Fulmer, Wily Garcia, Daniel Palka, Nicky Delmonico, Avisail Garcia, Alec Hansen, Matt Skole, Casey Gillaspie, Ryan Cordell, Charlie Tilson, and Leury Garcia.

Of that group, the sox did not find any they were confident enough to give average production to, and needing to rely on free agency and trades to provide short-term, average production on the team because they could not do it through their own scouting and development.

In similar places, other teams have found at least decent albeit replaceable players. And while the sox have had a decent record of dumpster diving for relievers, they instead felt the need to pay market rate for 2 middle relievers after spending considerable capital to acquire lots of minor league and college relievers saying this was the new moneyball. 

So basically, I think this offseason was indicative of a longstanding Hahn-era problem of not being able to squeeze greater value from marginal parts, and always feeling like he has to pay market rates for average production from multiple positions, to the point you end up with a higher team salary than you'd expect from the players on it.

[OneDog847]

21 hours ago, Nardiwashere said:

I don't know how you can say Rodon looks like a back end guy.

No way they are tanking in 2-3 years.  If so, the rebuild is a complete failure.  Tank has to end this year.

Rodon came up in 2015 and has only put up a little more than 5 WAR so far in his career. He is a lot closer to a back end guy than top of rotation option. 

The tanking isn't going to end this year. The Sox as currently constructed look like a team that will flirt with 100 losses again. 

2020 should be a little better but that is assuming all the youngsters like Kopech, Cease, Collins, Basabe have a good rookie season.

The tank is far from over unfortunately. 

[mqr]

1 hour ago, GreatScott82 said:

It's not fun seeing Tim Anderson's low OBP. The reality of the situation is, that's really bad. His defensive metrics are on the rise, but he needs to improve this area of his game or he will simply not pan out. 

Not sure getting a decent everyday player out of the middle of the first round, and the middle of the top 100 is not panning out. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by mqr

[mqr]

32 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

The tank is far from over unfortunately. 

Then it's already failed

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, mqr said:

Then it's already failed

It already has failed. Most can see it. They had an incredible head start and injuries and non-performance has derailed it. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It already has failed. Most can see it. 

That's far too black and white at this point. 6 months from now the outlook could easily flip. Dooooon't feel confident it will though. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

I just look at it differently. Hahn has had a really bad record of using free agency to get productive mlb players at any price point, compared to other GMs. This was another offseason where he could show their scouting or decisionmaking has improved, even in looking for short term pieces or even using it to find undervalued assets.

It also lets the same team (front office) off the hook of the bigger picture. 

We had 2 years of major league playing time available to find a power hitting first baseman. 2 years to find an innings eater that isn't great but can give you 180 ip and a 4.5 era. 2 years to find versatile, decent outfielders. These are roles you should be able to find through good scouting and playing time.

2 years with roster space where you can hunt for players through waivers, free agency, rule 5 drafts, trades and of course internal player development.

In that time they provided it to:

Dylan covey, Miguel Gonzalez, Hector Santiago, Manny Banuelos, Carson Fulmer, Wily Garcia, Daniel Palka, Nicky Delmonico, Avisail Garcia, Alec Hansen, Matt Skole, Casey Gillaspie, Ryan Cordell, Charlie Tilson, and Leury Garcia.

Of that group, the sox did not find any they were confident enough to give average production to, and needing to rely on free agency and trades to provide short-term, average production on the team because they could not do it through their own scouting and development.

In similar places, other teams have found at least decent albeit replaceable players. And while the sox have had a decent record of dumpster diving for relievers, they instead felt the need to pay market rate for 2 middle relievers after spending considerable capital to acquire lots of minor league and college relievers saying this was the new moneyball. 

So basically, I think this offseason was indicative of a longstanding Hahn-era problem of not being able to squeeze greater value from marginal parts, and always feeling like he has to pay market rates for average production from multiple positions, to the point you end up with a higher team salary than you'd expect from the players on it.

Well those 2 years you're talking about were the 1st 2 years of the rebuild and isn't the idea to be bad and get high draft picks? Granted drafting isn't their strong suit nor is being successful in free agency. Yes it sucks that attempts to find a gem amongst the rhinestones hasn't worked out but isn't that the case with most teams? I know my baseball expertise isn't good enough to find the handful of guys over the last 2 years who have given teams value  Jed Lowrie blossomed in his age 33 season and continued it last year. Outside of him I'm hard pressed to think of anyone. Maybe you can find more but younger guys because I doubt the Sox were looking too hard for over 30 guys.

Like Balta is fond of saying about free agents  , the majority of them flop even the inexpensive ones. . So  seems most teams are bad at picking productive free agents not just the Sox. It gets even harder when you are shopping the bargain bin. Twins were a good example of that last year. It makes it harder when you start looking more for offense than you do for defense. My own personal philosophy is find the undervalued good defensive players and do what you can to get the hitting to catch up.That's why i thought Jackie Bradley jr was worth a shot 4 -5 years ago when he wasn't hitting in his 1st couple years. It's why I still like Byron Buxton. It's why I can still tolerate Engel when most can't.

The young relievers are still young. Throwing them into the fire in stressful situations isn't a great idea . Let them develop pitching the 5th, 6th or 7th innings . I like vets around them eating up the stressful innings . Maybe a few of the young guys do well in their roles and then can be moved into the stressful innings and eventually take over the spots of Herrera and Colome.

I'm not exactly thrilled either how things worked out but there's no choice but to move on and hope we draft better and sign productive  free agents and we get some good surprises from our farm system. The history isn't great for those things but it's not like anyone signed this year is a long term piece they were just roster fillers or enticements for Manny. Most get upset because Hahn said no stop gaps but looking at it realistically  roles had to be filled just to field a team that wasn't going to lose 110 games . Those aren't stopgaps they're placeholders. Small difference  I know. The meaningful decisions are yet to be made . Strike 1 on that front but more pitches are coming and all I can do is hope we get some hits.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It already has failed. Most can see it. They had an incredible head start and injuries and non-performance has derailed it. 

Oh please.None of the prospects that we were all so high on have even played 2 full seasons yet while most haven't even seen the majors . Kopech had a brief cup of coffee No Cease No Eloy, Robert, none of the OF prospects . The rebuild failed because Moncada,Giolito and Lopez didn't become instant stars and we didn't sign a whale ?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I can think of a cheaper option who we could still sign today (angry 2016 related sigh) and there were a ton of comparable relievers who signed for less than we spent on Colome or Herrera.

So you're saying that you would have signed Shields and a bunch of cheaper relievers while at the same time pursuing Machado while also not signing Alonso and Jay ? Revisionist history until you can show me when you laid out your plan when the off season started.

Also I still don't see the point of crying over spilled milk. Was the point of this off season to spend as little as possible while pursuing a whale so that whale could play on another 100 loss team while also having spent so little that there's no chance to turn any of your cheaper guys into prospects and also hurt the young arms in the process ?

Edited March 6, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Oh please.None of the prospects that we were all so high on have even played 2 full seasons yet while most haven't even seen the majors . Kopech had a brief cup of coffee No Cease No Eloy, Robert, none of the OF prospects . The rebuild failed because Moncada,Giolito and Lopez didn't become instant stars and we didn't sign a whale ?

Not because of that, the injuries have killed it. It pushes development time back significantly. Also, for a rebuild to maximize the window the majority of the players have to arrive within a season or two of each other. You want roughly 7-8 of your best players to arrive within 15 months. The three guys up will have already used 3/7 controllable years before the rest catch up. Kopech will also be in that boat (3/7) as he takes 2020 as a mulligan in his TJS recovery. Murphy's law has derailed it more than anything else. Any lost development time for key prospects is brutal once the first guy has been called up. 

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well those 2 years you're talking about were the 1st 2 years of the rebuild and isn't the idea to be bad and get high draft picks? Granted drafting isn't their strong suit nor is being successful in free agency. Yes it sucks that attempts to find a gem amongst the rhinestones hasn't worked out but isn't that the case with most teams? I know my baseball expertise isn't good enough to find the handful of guys over the last 2 years who have given teams value  Jed Lowrie blossomed in his age 33 season and continued it last year. Outside of him I'm hard pressed to think of anyone. Maybe you can find more but younger guys because I doubt the Sox were looking too hard for over 30 guys.

Like Balta is fond of saying about free agents  , the majority of them flop even the inexpensive ones. . So  seems most teams are bad at picking productive free agents not just the Sox. It gets even harder when you are shopping the bargain bin. Twins were a good example of that last year. It makes it harder when you start looking more for offense than you do for defense. My own personal philosophy is find the undervalued good defensive players and do what you can to get the hitting to catch up.That's why i thought Jackie Bradley jr was worth a shot 4 -5 years ago when he wasn't hitting in his 1st couple years. It's why I still like Byron Buxton. It's why I can still tolerate Engel when most can't.

The young relievers are still young. Throwing them into the fire in stressful situations isn't a great idea . Let them develop pitching the 5th, 6th or 7th innings . I like vets around them eating up the stressful innings . Maybe a few of the young guys do well in their roles and then can be moved into the stressful innings and eventually take over the spots of Herrera and Colome.

I'm not exactly thrilled either how things worked out but there's no choice but to move on and hope we draft better and sign productive  free agents and we get some good surprises from our farm system. The history isn't great for those things but it's not like anyone signed this year is a long term piece they were just roster fillers or enticements for Manny. Most get upset because Hahn said no stop gaps but looking at it realistically  roles had to be filled just to field a team that wasn't going to lose 110 games . Those aren't stopgaps they're placeholders. Small difference  I know. The meaningful decisions are yet to be made . Strike 1 on that front but more pitches are coming and all I can do is hope we get some hits.

What I'm talking about has no bearing on that.

The Phillies found Odubel Herrera on waivers (2015)

The Reds found Scooter ganett on waivers (2017)

The Brewers found Jesus Aguilar on waivers. (2017). They found decent production from Keon Broxton in a low level trade. Junior Guerra from the white sox in 2016.

Obviously, famously, Max Muncy was on waivers.

Other teams have been able to find decent starters, if not long term pieces, through the use of waivers, rule 5 and playing time for marginal pieces. The white sox ... lets hope Daniel Palka pans out as a possible DH.

[TaylorStSox]

2 hours ago, GreatScott82 said:

It's not fun seeing Tim Anderson's low OBP. The reality of the situation is, that's really bad. His defensive metrics are on the rise, but he needs to improve this area of his game or he will simply not pan out. 

This is where I see a lot of the stat guys get it wrong. You want every player to be a prototype, but you don't consider how the team fits together. If your SS is a plus defender and gets 20/25, he doesn't have to be a high obp guy to be incredibly valuable, especially if you have a high obp 2nd and 3rd baseman. You don't need your 1st baseman to hit 40 bombs if you're getting plus power out of your C etc. It's about how the pieces on the team fit together. Not everyone has to be the prototypical player. It's not fantasy baseball. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by TaylorStSox

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not because of that, the injuries have killed it. It pushes development time back significantly. Also, for a rebuild to maximize the window the majority of the players have to arrive within a season or two of each other. You want roughly 7-8 of your best players to arrive within 15 months. The three guys up will have already used 3/7 controllable years before the rest catch up. Kopech will also be in that boat (3/7) as he takes 2020 as a mulligan in his TJS recovery. Murphy's law has derailed it more than anything else. Any lost development time for key prospects is brutal once the first guy has been called up. 

injuries have derailed it. The train can be put back on the track. Your fantasy of the ideal rebuild is just that a fantasy . You can map it out however you want in your head but the reality is always going to be that prospects flop and get injured and roster building is always in a state of flux.

[Soxbears2001]

 

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's fun when people cite batting average as some doomsday stat.

He led the league in strikeouts and hit .236. Paint that however you want.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

What I'm talking about has no bearing on that.

The Phillies found Odubel Herrera on waivers (2015)

The Reds found Scooter ganett on waivers (2017)

The Brewers found Jesus Aguilar on waivers. (2017). They found decent production from Keon Broxton in a low level trade. Junior Guerra from the white sox in 2016.

Obviously, famously, Max Muncy was on waivers.

Other teams have been able to find decent starters, if not long term pieces, through the use of waivers, rule 5 and playing time for marginal pieces. The white sox ... lets hope Daniel Palka pans out as a possible DH.

I didn't mean to put you on the spot . It's just like I said though , you named a handful among 30 teams. it's all easier said then done.Once we found Quintana that was under the current regime wasn't it ? What about Quentin, Thornton, Jenks. Seems like a lot of guys from 2005 were those types of value. Iguchi, Dye, Konerko and probably more.

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, Soxbears2001 said:

 

He led the league in strikeouts and hit .236. Paint that however you want.

And still managed to be an okay contributor. A huge chunk of his strikeouts can be wiped out by very slight adjustments and less bad strike zone luck.

Edited March 6, 2019 by mqr

[Chisox378]

I will say this once again. The Sox organization, right now, whether its the coaching in the minors, or Steverson the hitting coach, or a bad philisophy by someone in the organization, but right now Sox hitters are programed to hit from .210 to .250 with 5 to 6 times the strikeouts to walks, and hit HRs or strikeout.  Its bad hitting.  The small ball days of Ozzie and good baseball have been replaced with Adam Dunn and Jim Thome philosophy. It doesnt create runs, it doesnt make the defense work, its selfish baseball.