Who is your top 2019-20 free agent target

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

41 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I do think that the Sox will end up with one of Martinez/Castellanos. Their market is teams with a DH, so eliminate half of the league already. In the AL East, the only team that might need a DH and not have to worry about the luxury tax is the Rays. In the central, we're probably the only team that would have interest, maybe the Twins but I doubt it. In the west, maybe the Astros go for one, but I don't know how aggressively. Keep in mind that A's DH Khris Davis will be a free agent too, and he's arguably better than Castellanos. If the competition for the 3 DHs is the White Sox, Rays, Twins, Astros, and *maybe* the Yankees/Red Sox get in on one but I doubt it, then I think we get one

I hate the idea of a DH type being one of our best hitters. If you ever reach the World Series in hurts you greatly in the road games and is especially bad if you don't have home field advantage.

[GermanSoxFan]

Concerns where to play someone if the Sox reach the WS are not in my top 100 concerns for the Sox future.

 

However, Castellanos came up as a 3B and is athletic enough to play a decent 1B IMO. I don‘t think he‘d kill our chances in LF in that small a sample of games. Same for Martinez, minus the infield part. 

I think if Castellanos dedicated himself to work on playing 1B he‘d be better than Abreu, easily.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

17 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Concerns where to play someone if the Sox reach the WS are not in my top 100 concerns for the Sox future.

 

However, Castellanos came up as a 3B and is athletic enough to play a decent 1B IMO. I don‘t think he‘d kill our chances in LF in that small a sample of games. Same for Martinez, minus the infield part. 

I think if Castellanos dedicated himself to work on playing 1B he‘d be better than Abreu, easily.

The goal is to always win the World Series. Some very lean years makes us long for success but without achieving the ultimate goal it's just more failure but with better players.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

33 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The goal is to always win the World Series. Some very lean years makes us long for success but without achieving the ultimate goal it's just more failure but with better players.

Yeah but you dont not sign jD Martinez for that reason. Theres 180+ other games that matter more than 3 games in the WS in which hed have to play left field. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's difficult to say now who to target. Too much depends on what happens this year with Moncada at 3rd , what Anderson does and how the OF prospects look So I'm thinking you can never have enough pitching so definitely a front line starter since our starters will all be so young .Plus everyone assumes Kopech will be back to full strength but missing a year will hurt and there's no guarantee he can come right in  and pitch above average or even have the same stuff. Projecting Cease and Kopech to be our top starters is fraught with peril with both having had TJ surgery . Maybe Giolito's TJ surgery had an adverse affect on him in some way whether in mind or body or both that he just can't overcome.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I don't really see Martinez opting out. Even if he does, I don't see the Sox going after him. They won't be a top player for one of the best FA available. 

If I had to pick out of the list who I think stands the best chance to be on the Sox come 2020, it'll be one of Marcell Ozuna or Khris Davis. For pitching, I'll go with Michael Wacha, Jake Odorizzi, or Rick Porcello. Those guys seem much more within the Sox standards of FA (2nd tier and down). Though I would be completely shocked if they are actually able to convert on any starter. We're going to hear a whole lot of "won't go beyond 4 years" with these guys thanks to JR's inevitable contract restrictions. I'm pretty convinced they are going with the sink-or-swim mentality regarding catcher. I really have a gut feeling we're going to most likely see Zavala/Collins as a platoon. I simply have zero expectations on what they will actually be able to convert on within the market after this disastrous offseason. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I don't really see Martinez opting out. Even if he does, I don't see the Sox going after him. They won't be a top player for one of the best FA available. 

If I had to pick out of the list who I think stands the best chance to be on the Sox come 2020, it'll be one of Marcell Ozuna or Khris Davis. For pitching, I'll go with Michael Wacha, Jake Odorizzi, or Rick Porcello. Those guys seem much more within the Sox standards of FA (2nd tier and down). Though I would be completely shocked if they are actually able to convert on any starter. We're going to hear a whole lot of "won't go beyond 4 years" with these guys thanks to JR's inevitable contract restrictions. I'm pretty convinced they are going with the sink-or-swim mentality regarding catcher. I really have a gut feeling we're going to most likely see Zavala/Collins as a platoon. I simply have zero expectations on what they will actually be able to convert on within the market after this disastrous offseason. 

You don’t think JD will be able to beat $62.5M on the open market next winter? I think he easily beats that if he has another big season in 2019.

Edited March 7, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah but you dont not sign jD Martinez for that reason. Theres 180+ other games that matter more than 3 games in the WS in which hed have to play left field. 

Of course I realize that but you had better have really good depth where you can make his absence be less painful when it matters most. He's not exactly a gazelle now so a 34 year old Martinez in the OF or whatever his age might be if he signed with the Sox and they somehow manage to get to the World Series isn't a great scenario. Great for the season and AL playoffs but too integral of a piece to have to put up with his defense when older or removing him for a defensive replacement only to lose his bat if a crucial game gets to extra innings after he's removed or limiting him to pinch hitting role.

Just my preference right now to stick with a starting pitcher, that could change.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I love the idea of Collins and Seby splitting catcher duties for 7 years.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Maybe I'm in the minority but I love the idea of Collins and Seby splitting catcher duties for 7 years.

I’d be fine with Collins rotating between catcher, 1b, and DH (sitting against lefty starters) but I really hope the Sox acquire a plus defender at catcher. I don’t think either of those two guys are that.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You don’t think JD will be able to beat $62.5M on the open market next winter? I think he easily beats that if he has another big season in 2019.

I honestly don't know if he is going to want to risk it. He didn't exactly have a big market the first go around, and now he is a little older. Couple that with the fact he is a legit DH, already 15 teams are eliminated from his market. Yankees won't be in on him, and I think it would be pretty easy to eliminate most of the remaining AL teams (Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Twins, A's for instance). I'll be interesting. If he can put up 40 bombs again, maybe... But if he has anything that looks like regression, I could see him playing it safe. Plus he is on Boston. Not like there are many better teams available.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I honestly don't know if he is going to want to risk it. He didn't exactly have a big market the first go around, and now he is a little older. Couple that with the fact he is a legit DH, already 15 teams are eliminated from his market. Yankees won't be in on him, and I think it would be pretty easy to eliminate most of the remaining AL teams (Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Twins, A's for instance). I'll be interesting. If he can put up 40 bombs again, maybe... But if he has anything that looks like regression, I could see him playing it safe. Plus he is on Boston. Not like there are many better teams available.

This is likely his last chance to cash in on a big payday. Considering EE signed a 3/60 deal with the Indians two years ago at age 34, I’d be shocked if JD doesn’t beat that easily at age 32 unless he has a bad season in 2019. JD is a much better hitter than EE was when he entered free agency, also as a DH only type.

Edited March 7, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This is likely his last chance to cash in on a big payday. Considering EE signed a 3/60 deal with the Indians two years ago at age 34, I’d be shocked if JD doesn’t beat that easily at age 32 unless he has a bad season in 2019. JD is a much better hitter than EE was when he entered free agency, also as a DH only type.

I understand that, I just don't see much of a market for him. It's crazy to think guys like Kimbrel are still out there. He's been the best closer in baseball and is only 30. The market isn't changing any time soon.  

[Bob Sacamano]

9 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I honestly don't know if he is going to want to risk it. He didn't exactly have a big market the first go around, and now he is a little older. Couple that with the fact he is a legit DH, already 15 teams are eliminated from his market. Yankees won't be in on him, and I think it would be pretty easy to eliminate most of the remaining AL teams (Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Twins, A's for instance). I'll be interesting. If he can put up 40 bombs again, maybe... But if he has anything that looks like regression, I could see him playing it safe. Plus he is on Boston. Not like there are many better teams available.

I agree with you. I don't think he opts out. Being a DH mostly eliminates half the teams already. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

10 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I honestly don't know if he is going to want to risk it. He didn't exactly have a big market the first go around, and now he is a little older. Couple that with the fact he is a legit DH, already 15 teams are eliminated from his market. Yankees won't be in on him, and I think it would be pretty easy to eliminate most of the remaining AL teams (Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Twins, A's for instance). I'll be interesting. If he can put up 40 bombs again, maybe... But if he has anything that looks like regression, I could see him playing it safe. Plus he is on Boston. Not like there are many better teams available.

JD Martinez will 100% opt out. He re-enters the market next time with a QO though. He should be able to get another 5/100 deal though. The Sox should be more than willing to do that. Hell, the Sox should have done it last off-season. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

JD Martinez is a stud, but I could totally see him being one of those guys on the wrong side of 30 whose performance falls off a cliff once they sign with the White Sox. It would be so predictable.

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

JD Martinez is a stud, but I could totally see him being one of those guys on the wrong side of 30 whose performance falls off a cliff once they sign with the White Sox. It would be so predictable.

Being a 32-year old DH (with a QO attached this time around) makes me think he won't even opt-out to risk not getting paid what hes' even under contract for the remaining 3 years of his current deal. Hell, he signed mid-February last year after coming off of a great year. At the very least, I think maybe him and the Red Sox hammer out a new deal, adding another year or two, before he can potentially opt-out.

Edited March 7, 2019 by soxfan2014

[Chicago White Sox]

47 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

JD Martinez is a stud, but I could totally see him being one of those guys on the wrong side of 30 whose performance falls off a cliff once they sign with the White Sox. It would be so predictable.

Even if he falls off a clip, he’s starting at a wRC+ level of 170.  The reality is he should be an incredibly good hitter even with a ton of regression.  Given that the young studs are all off the table, he’s definitely a guy we should go after hard next year.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Even if he falls off a clip, he’s starting at a wRC+ level of 170.  The reality is he should be an incredibly good hitter even with a ton of regression.  Given that the young studs are all off the table, he’s definitely a guy we should go after hard next year.

Sox fans are so scarred that they are viewing a stud like JD in the same vein as LaRoche and Dunn. Two completely different animals. JD is not a tier 3/4 FA signing like many of the guys they’ve signed in year’s past. He was the #3 hitter in baseball by wRC+ last season. 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sox fans are so scarred that they are viewing a stud like JD in the same vein as LaRoche and Dunn. Two completely different animals. JD is not a tier 3/4 FA signing like many of the guys they’ve signed in year’s past. He was the #3 hitter in baseball by wRC+ last season. 

I agree he’s a different animal than those other guys.  That being said, there is risk adding a bat-only guy in his early 30’s no matter how good he is.  I don’t really see an alternative for us as long as the duration is reasonable.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I agree he’s a different animal than those other guys.  That being said, there is risk adding a bat-only guy in his early 30’s no matter how good he is.  I don’t really see an alternative for us as long as the duration is reasonable.

No question but like you said even if he regresses some and becomes a 135 wRC+ hitter he’s still a top 20 hitter in MLB. When’s the last time the Sox had two of the top 20 best hitters in baseball (assuming Eloy becomes that in the near future)?

edit: guess they were close in 2017 due to Avi’s fluke season but I imagine the last time they came anywhere close (outside of 2017) was over a decade ago.

Edited March 7, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No question but like you said even if he regresses some and becomes a 135 wRC+ hitter he’s still a top 20 hitter in MLB. When’s the last time the Sox had two of the top 20 best hitters in baseball (assuming Eloy becomes that in the near future)?

edit: guess they were close in 2017 due to Avi’s fluke season but I imagine the last time they came anywhere close to close outside of 2017 was over a decade ago.

My worry is Edwin Encarnacion. Age 32 has a 150 wrc+ season, then 136, 130, 115 and he became someone you gave away pretty quickly. So you can still get some productive years but you should plan on it being between 115-130 wrc+ when you pay for him.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

My worry is Edwin Encarnacion. Age 32 has a 150 wrc+ season, then 136, 130, 115 and he became someone you gave away pretty quickly. So you can still get some productive years but you should plan on it being between 115-130 wrc+ when you pay for him.

Just to be the jerk who points this out, Daniel Palka had a wrc+ of 109 last year in a rookie season, so while 135-130-120-115 over 4 years would be a clear and obvious upgrade if Palka did not improve, is it a $100 million upgrade?

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Just to be the jerk who points this out, Daniel Palka had a wrc+ of 109 last year in a rookie season, so while 135-130-120-115 over 4 years would be a clear and obvious upgrade if Palka did not improve, is it a $100 million upgrade?

We don't know the cost of JD yet, he was suppressed his last go around in free agency despite productivity. If he drops off at all this year it will be used against him.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

My worry is Edwin Encarnacion. Age 32 has a 150 wrc+ season, then 136, 130, 115 and he became someone you gave away pretty quickly. So you can still get some productive years but you should plan on it being between 115-130 wrc+ when you pay for him.

If we got 150, 136, 130, and 115 from JD on a 4/$85M type contract, I’d be thrilled.