Who is your top 2019-20 free agent target

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

49 minutes ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

So, you LOL at Harper and Machado as first ballot HOFers? Just checking. LOL.

Yes. They are 26. Harper could average about 5 war a year the next 5 years (until he's 31) and hed have the same career WAR as Mike Cameron. Both guys have a lot to prove and do before you can call them 1st ballot hall of famers. Harper has 180 career homers.

Could both become it? Sure but it's less likely that they arent both 1st ballot hofers than it is that they are.

[zisk]

chris archer might be a fit.

 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, zisk said:

chris archer might be a fit.

 

While it is Pittsburgh, he does have 2020 and 2021 team options for $9 and $11 million, with a $1.75 million buyout required to release him. Given that they found a sucker stupid enough to take Ivan Nova and $9 million off their hands this year, if he performs comparably to the last year or two, his option will probably be picked up and they may look to trade him.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

While it is Pittsburgh, he does have 2020 and 2021 team options for $9 and $11 million, with a $1.75 million buyout required to release him. Given that they found a sucker stupid enough to take Ivan Nova and $9 million off their hands this year, if he performs comparably to the last year or two, his option will probably be picked up and they may look to trade him.

Isn’t Archer essentially a modern day Javy Vazquez? Advanced metrics love him and his FIP/WAR always look great but he consistently underperforms his advanced metrics with a very mediocre ERA. He’s also on the wrong side of 30 and his numbers have regressed for several years now. Hard pass, especially if a trade involves anyone of value.

[Chicago White Sox]

Here’s what I’d like to see the Sox do next offseason:

• Sign J.D. Martinez to 4/$96M deal
• Sign Verlander to 2/$74M deal
• Sign Grandal to 4/$60M deal
• Make QO to Abreu (he’ll accept)
• Trade Yolmer Sanchez to Dodgers for Joc Peterson

Lineup:

1. Madrigal, 2B
2. Moncada, 3B#
3. Martinez, DH
4. Jimenez, LF
5. Pederson, RF*
6. Abreu, 1B
7. Grandal, C#
8. Anderson, SS
9. Basabe, CF#

Bench:

• IF: Rondon
• OF: Engel
• UT: Garcia#
• BC: Zavala

Rotation:

1. Verlander
2. Rodon*
3. Lopez
4. Kopech
5. Cease

Bullpen:

• CL: Herrera
• SU: Burdi
• SU: Fry*
• MR: Hamilton
• MR: Frare*
• MR: Burr
• LR: Banuelos*

I’m guessing the payroll after all these additions would be around $140M, so theoretically this should work.  I also think this team can legitimately win the AL Central in 2020.

[thxfrthmmrs]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Here’s what I’d like to see the Sox do next offseason:

• Sign J.D. Martinez to 4/$96M deal
• Sign Verlander to 2/$74M deal
• Sign Grandal to 4/$60M deal
• Make QO to Abreu (he’ll accept)
• Trade Yolmer Sanchez to Dodgers for Joc Peterson

Lineup:

1. Madrigal, 2B
2. Moncada, 3B#
3. Martinez, DH
4. Jimenez, LF
5. Pederson, RF*
6. Abreu, 1B
7. Grandal, C#
8. Anderson, SS
9. Basabe, CF#

Bench:

• IF: Rondon
• OF: Engel
• UT: Garcia#
• BC: Zavala

Rotation:

1. Verlander
2. Rodon*
3. Lopez
4. Kopech
5. Cease

Bullpen:

• CL: Herrera
• SU: Burdi
• SU: Fry*
• MR: Hamilton
• MR: Frare*
• MR: Burr
• LR: Banuelos*

I’m guessing the payroll after all these additions would be around $140M, so theoretically this should work.  I also think this team can legitimately win the AL Central in 2020.

What the Verlander?

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

What the Verlander?

I don’t follow, are you questioning the dollar amount?

[ron883]

13 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes. They are 26. Harper could average about 5 war a year the next 5 years (until he's 31) and hed have the same career WAR as Mike Cameron. Both guys have a lot to prove and do before you can call them 1st ballot hall of famers. Harper has 180 career homers.

Could both become it? Sure but it's less likely that they arent both 1st ballot hofers than it is that they are.

So the HOF voters use WAR as a basis for their votes? This is news to me. You aren't required to tirelessly defend the FOs failure to land Machado and Harper this off-season you know. 

[SoxFanForever]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t follow, are you questioning the dollar amount?

You want to pay Verlander $37 million a year? 

[hi8is]

Manny, is that you?

[Chicago White Sox]

30 minutes ago, SoxFanForever said:

You want to pay Verlander $37 million a year? 

I mean, that’s what it will likely cost on a short-term deal, at least for us.  Not many ~7 win pitchers out there and I’m assuming he’ll push to break Greinke’s AAV record.  I’m sure a team like the Yankees would happily pay close to that amount and we’d have top them to have any chance.

What our alternatives for addressing for the top of the rotation?  I think there is no chance in hell we go 7/$200M+ on Cole or Sale.  Doesn’t leave a lot of options IMO unless you’re prepared to empty your prospect coffers to acquire one.

Edited March 10, 2019 by Chicago White Sox

[greg775]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Here’s what I’d like to see the Sox do next offseason:

• Sign J.D. Martinez to 4/$96M deal
• Sign Verlander to 2/$74M deal
• Sign Grandal to 4/$60M deal
• Make QO to Abreu (he’ll accept)
• Trade Yolmer Sanchez to Dodgers for Joc Peterson

Lineup:

1. Madrigal, 2B
2. Moncada, 3B#
3. Martinez, DH
4. Jimenez, LF
5. Pederson, RF*
6. Abreu, 1B
7. Grandal, C#
8. Anderson, SS
9. Basabe, CF#

Bench:

• IF: Rondon
• OF: Engel
• UT: Garcia#
• BC: Zavala

Rotation:

1. Verlander
2. Rodon*
3. Lopez
4. Kopech
5. Cease

Bullpen:

• CL: Herrera
• SU: Burdi
• SU: Fry*
• MR: Hamilton
• MR: Frare*
• MR: Burr
• LR: Banuelos*

I’m guessing the payroll after all these additions would be around $140M, so theoretically this should work.  I also think this team can legitimately win the AL Central in 2020.

Great post. Legitimate stuff except for skepticism that the Sox will sign any impactful free agents.

[thxfrthmmrs]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I mean, that’s what it will likely cost on a short-term deal, at least for us.  Not many ~7 win pitchers out there and I’m assuming he’ll push to break Greinke’s AAV record.  I’m sure a team like the Yankees would happily pay close to that amount and we’d have top them to have any chance.

What our alternatives for addressing for the top of the rotation?  I think there is no chance in hell we go 7/$200M+ on Cole or Sale.  Doesn’t leave a lot of options IMO unless you’re prepared to empty your prospect coffers to acquire one.

Any deal for Verlander will be heavily impacted by his performance this season. Needless to say his decline could happen any time now and might even be as early as this year (his ERA after his first 10 starts were 3.35 last year). Say if he regressed to 4.5 WAR and 3.20 ERA, would you still pay  him $37 M AAV? If he somehow comes near the elite production in his age 36 season. I might go for 1/$37 M deal for his age 37 season, but certainly not a 2 year, high dollar value deal unless it's a vesting option in year 2.

Probably the max I'd go for JV (and Sox for that matter) for a non-vesting contract is 2/$60M. That's still sound pretty crazy for a pitcher's age 37/38 seasons.

[Chicago White Sox]

27 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Any deal for Verlander will be heavily impacted by his performance this season. Needless to say his decline could happen any time now and might even be as early as this year (his ERA after his first 10 starts were 3.35 last year). Say if he regressed to 4.5 WAR and 3.20 ERA, would you still pay  him $37 M AAV? If he somehow comes near the elite production in his age 36 season. I might go for 1/$37 M deal for his age 37 season, but certainly not a 2 year, high dollar value deal unless it's a vesting option in year 2.

Probably the max I'd go for JV (and Sox for that matter) for a non-vesting contract is 2/$60M. That's still sound pretty crazy for a pitcher's age 37/38 seasons.

I don’t disagree with your views and my entire idea is centered around Justin not showing any signs of regression next year.  If he does, then I probably would explore other options, although there really aren’t a ton of good ones.  Like I have a really bad feeling we end up overpaying for Bumgarner.  To me, that’s much scarier than gambling on Verlander’s age 37/38 seasons.

[caulfield12]

There are seven categories of free agents (at least the way I'm organizing it) for next year.

Instead of putting it into age or lifetime fWAR (which I'll write later)...I put them into tiers of likelihood.

My assumptions in doing this exercise were that Moncada, Anderson, Madrigal (2B), Jimenez (LF) and Robert (CF) were going to be the starters in April/May 2020.  And a rotation of Rodon, Lopez, Kopech, Cease and multiple question marks (Dunning/Banuelos/Covey/E.Santana) as well.

In order to compete next year, they need to do THREE of the following, and ARGUABLY, FOUR.

 

1) 1B/DH

Abreu (QO), Alonso being locked in with 550+ PA's and some combination of Palka/Guyer/Rondon/Delmonico

75%

 

2) FRONT-LINE STARTING PITCHER

50%

Since it's the White Sox, we can forget about Sale/Cole/Verlander...for various reasons.

That leaves Z.Wheeler, Porcello, Bumgarner and possibly Keuchel (signs one year deal, or one+ option not exercised)

 

3)  BIG-TIME HITTER (regardless of position)

JD Martinez, Goldschmidt, Rendon, Didi Gregorious, Donaldson, Bogaerts, Khris Davis, Scotter Gennett

25%

 

4)  RIGHT FIELDER (this is more about marketing than need...especially if Basabe/Rutherford/Adolfo struggle)

N.Castellanos

M.Ozuna

Puig (more about marketing at this point, although he's been a solid 2 fWAR player and potentially 2.5-4.0, watch weight gain/loss of fast-twitch muscles)

25%

 

5)  Catcher/Yasmani Grandal (will be competing with every team in baseball, and one gets the feeling from the front office that they're "all in" in terms of forcing Collins and Zavala into this position, come hell or high water)

10-15%

 

6)  Closer/Craig Kimbrel

5-10%

This means that Herrera, Colome, Nate Jones and Burdi are all basically disasters...and Fry has a sophomore slump instead of progressing.  HUGE REBUILD fail, as we were led to believe that drafting all those college relievers (Hamilton and Burr being two of the leaders) would start to pay dividends.

 

7) Zach Greinke

This is the other place (besides Japan and Korea) to look for a front-line starting pitcher.  Of course, it's going to come with a $96 or $64 million (2020/21) pricetag, but it wouldn't cost any talent and would limit the "7-10 years down the line" liability with one of the long-term deals they rejected.

 

In the end, they bring back Abreu/Alonso (they're not going to deliberately screw him over PA's unless he hits like he did for CLE in the 2nd half again, ONE pitcher (list of 4) and ONE legit middle of the order hitter (list of 5).

They end up spending $250-300 million doing that, instead of putting it all in the basket of one individual superstar/star player.

Other than the 3 young RFer's that are FA's, it also risks THIRTY-SOMETHING VETERAN FAIL (see 2009-2018).

Edited March 11, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Since I was pretty much going insane without Jimenez/Robert to watch...I, unsurprisingly have adopted the Padres as my NL team, just to stay in touch with NL players for fantasy baseball and because they would obviously look like the White Sox with Machado, Tatis Jr., a ton of money spent in Latin America across 15-25 minor leaguers and a nice/newer stadium.

Observations:

They have six outfielders (Jankowski out for 2-3 months) cuts them down to W.Myers and Margot as the surefire starters, with Reyes/Cordero/Renfroe all competing for the third/starting spot on one corner, likely RF.

They have a ton of pitching prospects, but Lucchesi and Chris Paddack are the only really impressive ones...and Paddack might not even break with the team.  The later is quite similar to Kopech, very cocky but he backs it up and has that "swagger."

Jose Pirela is essentially their version of Yolmer...solid, hits well enough but not for much power, not super fast but you can plug him in at multiple positions across the diamond and get a 1-2.5 fWAR, a bit like Marwin Gonzalez but more a natural 1B/corner OF than 3B or CF type.

Francisco Mejia is going to be a monster...he's really short, only 5'8", but I've been really impressed with his offensive approach this spring and he possesses all the raw defensive tools as well.  Austin Hedges has his work cut out holding him off as the starter.

Urias has been hurt the last week, but he's the likely starter at SS with Kinsler at 2B and Hosmer at 1B.

 

Conclusion:  If we had the right scouts in place, we should target one of their 4 RF'ers (assuming we don't bring in Castellanos/Puig/Ozuna) or Austin Hedges (assuming we don't join Grandal bidding.)  All four of them have their pluses and minuses. 

Now pulling off ANOTHER deal with San Diego/Preller, good luck Hahn.  We'd probably get tricked into taking Wil Myers' deal and sending them Bush and Fulmer, with Fulmer blossing into another Walker Buehler in the NL West.

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by caulfield12

[OneDog847]

I don't think the Sox will be ready to add any impact free agents this offseason. 2020 will most likely be another tank/developmental year. They will want to see what they have with guys like Basabe, Madrigal, Adolfo, Collins, Zavala, Cease, Kopech, Dunning, Lambert, etc. They will most likely go after FA following the 2020 season. 

The only caveat to this is adding a top of the rotation starter like Sale or Cole. I don't see the Sox being serious bidders for either but a team can never have too much pitching. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

1 minute ago, OneDog847 said:

I don't think the Sox will be ready to add any impact free agents this offseason. 2020 will most likely be another tank/developmental year. They will want to see what they have with guys like Basabe, Madrigal, Adolfo, Collins, Zavala, Cease, Kopech, Dunning, Lambert, etc. They will most likely go after FA following the 2020 season. 

The only caveat to this is adding a top of the rotation starter like Sale or Cole. I don't see the Sox being serious bidders for either but a team can never have too much pitching. 

If that's the case, 2019 and 2020 must have gone really wrong. The clock is ticking on the young guys already called up plus Anderson, if they show that they're part of the future core, we need to start acquiring other core pieces externally if we see guys who could help this team. You're always going to have prospects coming up in the pipeline (#3 pick this year, and another likely top 10 next year included), that's the sign of a healthy farm system.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

I don't think the Sox will be ready to add any impact free agents this offseason. 2020 will most likely be another tank/developmental year. They will want to see what they have with guys like Basabe, Madrigal, Adolfo, Collins, Zavala, Cease, Kopech, Dunning, Lambert, etc. They will most likely go after FA following the 2020 season. 

The only caveat to this is adding a top of the rotation starter like Sale or Cole. I don't see the Sox being serious bidders for either but a team can never have too much pitching. 

It’s simply suicide to wait that long.

Rodon will be gone after 2021.  Moncada after 2023.   Anderson is a complementary player at this point, although he has just as much opportunity as Yoan to break out into the 3-5 fWAR range.  

At best, they’re looking at a 3 year window by waiting another year, and completely invalidating the additions of Herrera and Colome to shore up the pen, not to mention Yonder Alonso.

They’re also guaranteeing the loss of another 15% of the remaining fanbase, unless Jimenez is a Rookie of the Year and Cease hits the ground running and not like Giolito.

This is the path to perpetual rebuilding...

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It’s simply suicide to wait that long.

Rodon will be gone after 2021.  Moncada after 2023.   Anderson is a complementary player at this point, although he has just as much opportunity as Yoan to break out into the 3-5 fWAR range.  

At best, they’re looking at a 3 year window by waiting another year, and completely invalidating the additions of Herrera and Colome to shore up the pen, not to mention Yonder Alonso.

They’re also guaranteeing the loss of another 15% of the remaining fanbase, unless Jimenez is a Rookie of the Year and Cease hits the ground running and not like Giolito.

This is the path to perpetual rebuilding...

Not to mention they only have $12.5M in payroll commitments next season.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Not to mention they only have $12.5M in payroll commitments next season.

If they want to completely demoralize the fanbase, sure, wait another year while Cleveland is vulnerable...wait for them to trade Lindor and Ramirez when/if they refuse to sign team-friendly extensions.

The only way no FA additions will be necessary...

Jimenez ROY

Cease with a sub 3.50 ERA in August and Sept

Robert and Madrigal come up late and show they belong in 2020

Collins rounds into a catcher who can start at least 120+ games defensively at the big league level

No hiccups with Kopech rehab

White Sox clearly have best bullpen in division...which would mean Herrera and Colome for 2020, but why if you’re not actually trying to compete?

Alonso and Abreu have their career seasons offensively.

Giolito, Nova and Santana hold their own or even pitch better than expected

 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If they want to completely demoralize the fanbase, sure, wait another year while Cleveland is vulnerable...wait for them to trade Lindor and Ramirez when/if they refuse to sign team-friendly extensions.

The only way no FA additions will be necessary...

Jimenez ROY

Cease with a sub 3.50 ERA in August and Sept

Robert and Madrigal come up late and show they belong in 2020

Collins rounds into a catcher who can start at least 120+ games defensively at the big league level

No hiccups with Kopech rehab

White Sox clearly have best bullpen in division...which would mean Herrera and Colome for 2020, but why if you’re not actually trying to compete?

Alonso and Abreu have their career seasons offensively.

Giolito, Nova and Santana hold their own or even pitch better than expected

 

Even if all those things happen, they will need to spend some serious money on free agents or risk having a sub $50M payroll.  Although I have no idea how Nova, Santana, & Alonso have any impact on our 2020 roster.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Not to mention they only have $12.5M in payroll commitments next season.

If this offseason has taught us anything, it's that they'll blow through that money up to $75 million pretty quick without bringing in anyone of value. Arb for Colome, Sanchez, Rodon, maybe Leury and McCann, pick up the option on Jones, and blow some money keeping Abreu around and it's back over $60 million before they make a single move.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Even if all those things happen, they will need to spend some serious money on free agents or risk having a sub $50M payroll.  Although I have no idea how Nova, Santana, & Alonso have any impact on our 2020 roster.

Alonso could easily get to 550 PA’s.  Renteria won’t screw him over if he’s playing well.

You can also practically guarantee if Nova or Santana pitch well in 2019 the extension money goes to them instead of a Verlander or Greinke from outside the organization.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If this offseason has taught us anything, it's that they'll blow through that money up to $75 million pretty quick without bringing in anyone of value. Arb for Colome, Sanchez, Rodon, maybe Leury and McCann, pick up the option on Jones, and blow some money keeping Abreu around and it's back over $60 million before they make a single move.

There will be no need for both Leury and Yolmer if Madrigal and Robert progress.

Maybe one stays...the more expensive one hopefully is also the one who nets the best return, likely Yolmer in a July/August trade.