3/10 vs A's, 3pm, whitesox.com

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Nope the opposite is true bud. It might be easier to get under it but it is harder to make quality contact. I am talking about the combo of launch angle + exit velocity. It is easier to get a higher exit velocity on a lower pitch. 

LOL no, it's literally not.

I have posted a link already showing average LA of pitches based on placement of the zone - that showed that I was correct. I am presenting you the scientific reason for why it happens, and you deny that. 

Now you are talking launch angle + exit velocity when the point you claimed was it's easier to elevate a low pitch than a high one. Your other point isn't true either, ftr.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/sean-doolittle-excelling-with-high-fastballs-c273645330

Yes, some pitchers have been good with them because an entire generation of hitters failed to see them frequently. As I said, all data has shown that low balls lead to lower BAA and fewer runs (hence why pitchers live DOWN in the zone in todays game and run scoring has dipped to levels that we haven't seen in the modern game). That doesn't mean that no one can be successful up in the zone. You are pointing to individual examples - I am pointing to the entirety of data for the entire league.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

As the chart shows Parkman.

Average exit velocity:

Low - 86.6

Middle - 86.8

High - 87

Pitches high in the zone not only have higher launch angles, but they also have higher exit velocity. I'm sure Parkman will say "no" and deny the facts though.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

LOL no, it's literally not.

I have posted a link already showing average LA of pitches based on placement of the zone - that showed that I was correct. I am presenting you the scientific reason for why it happens, and you deny that. 

Now you are talking launch angle + exit velocity when the point you claimed was it's easier to elevate a low pitch than a high one. Your other point isn't true either, ftr.

I wasn't clear enough. It makes perfect sense that it is easier to elevate something further off the ground. I always meant the combo of launch angle+EV. Bottom line it is easier to hit a low pitch hard and far. Bottom line it is easier to get quality contact on a lower pitch than a high one, regardless of if it is a grounder or not. 

[JoshPR]

44 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No. I'm not sure why people think hitters take dramatic upper cut swings that lead to dropping the barrel head down on the ball. Even people who are fly ball oriented don't like continually dropping the barrel down on the ball. You prefer to drive through the ball - not sweep it. 

The high fastball is easier to square up - hence why it's thrown less. 

Throw it less cause it ain't being called a strike like it used to

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

As the chart shows Parkman.

Average exit velocity:

Low - 86.6

Middle - 86.8

High - 87

Pitches high in the zone not only have higher launch angles, but they also have higher exit velocity. I'm sure Parkman will say "no" and deny the facts though.

Is the chart only for fastballs, or do they include hanging breaking balls?

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

As the chart shows Parkman.

Average exit velocity:

Low - 86.6

Middle - 86.8

High - 87

Pitches high in the zone not only have higher launch angles, but they also have higher exit velocity. I'm sure Parkman will say "no" and deny the facts though.

I want to know where they define these zones. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I wasn't clear enough. It makes perfect sense that it is easier to elevate something further off the ground. I always meant the combo of launch angle+EV. Bottom line it is easier to hit a low pitch hard and far. Bottom line it is easier to get quality contact on a lower pitch than a high one, regardless of if it is a grounder or not. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Btw this conversation has been purely about the 4 seam fastball and no other pitch. Even old school Hawk used to say to hitters facing a pitcher with a good heater "you have to make them get it down" 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[thxfrthmmrs]

36 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

As the chart shows Parkman.

Average exit velocity:

Low - 86.6

Middle - 86.8

High - 87

Pitches high in the zone not only have higher launch angles, but they also have higher exit velocity. I'm sure Parkman will say "no" and deny the facts though.

What about batting average dude? Hitters have a hard time catching up to high fastball at premium velocity.

Seriously, read this article. It debunks all the outdated philosophies you're throwing out here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-more-mlb-batters-become-launch-angle-disciples-pitchers-are-quietly-adapting/2018/03/27/ecace82c-2dda-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.ae5e7f2a9f2e

"That shift in pitching theory can be summed up like this: fewer sinkers, fewer low pitches, more breaking balls, more four-seam fastballs, more high pitches. The logic, while an oversimplification, goes like this: If hitters, with their uppercut swings, have figured out how to go down and scoop low fastballs — the pitcher’s bread and butter for generations — over the walls, they would have a much tougher time doing so with high fastballs and well-placed breaking balls."

"You could watch the trend play out month-to-month in the data from 2017. Here are the percentage of overall pitches leaguewide that were sinkers, month by month, according to FanGraphs: April, 19.6 percent; May, 19.0; June, 19.2; July, 18.4; August, 18.4; September/October, 16.9. That comes out to a 16 percent decline across just one season, and it continued a four-year decline in the prevalence of sinkers, from 21.5 percent of all pitches in 2014, to 20.4 percent in 2015, to 18.7 in 2016 and down to 18.6 in 2017."

"But it wasn’t only pitch selection that was changing, but also pitch placement. Here, using data from Statcast, are the month-to-month averages of pitches characterized as high in 2017: April, 27.1 percent; May, 28.8; June, 32.2; July, 33.1; August, 33.9; September/October, 33.0. (The major league leader, among pitchers who threw at least 300 pitches in 2017, was Nationals closer Sean Doolittle, with 60.8 percent of his pitches considered high.)"

“As a kid, you’re taught, ‘Down in the zone, down in the zone,’ ” said San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey, who was also a star pitcher as an amateur. “And when I first got up [to the majors], you were still seeing tons of [sinkers] and hard sliders. But now, hitters are geared to handling hard velocity down in the zone and hard sliders, so what you’re seeing is elevated four-seamers and curveballs making more of a comeback. It’s definitely something we’ve talked about this spring.”

Edited March 11, 2019 by thxfrthmmrs

[caulfield12]

Jimenez, Mendick and Robert in lineup today...

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/white-sox-vs-brewers/2019/03/11/567544#game_state=preview,game_tab=videos,game=567544

[Jake]

It's pretty simple. It's easier to make contact with a low pitch, but the contact on a high pitch is more likely to be productive contact. Part of the reason pitchers like to throw fastballs in the low part of the zone is to generate weak contact, but also to set up offspeed pitches that are designed to look like the same pitch. When you fool a guy with speed, you want the pitch low because he'll pull away from it. But if you only throw offspeed pitches low, then you'll have no deception on them.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Another good read here:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/39080/rubbing-mud-astroification-gerrit-cole/

TL;DR - High fastball and healthy dosage of curveball is Astro's bread and butter. It's no surprise a team like them, Indians, Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers are at the forefront of this revolution

It's also not surprising that Cole increased the spin rate of his fastball significantly (leading to rising action) and usage of his curveball when he got to the Astros and became one of the best pitchers in baseball.

[Jack Parkman]

21 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

What about batting average dude? Hitters have a hard time catching up to high fastball at premium velocity.

Seriously, read this article. It debunks all the outdated ideologies you're throwing out here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-more-mlb-batters-become-launch-angle-disciples-pitchers-are-quietly-adapting/2018/03/27/ecace82c-2dda-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.ae5e7f2a9f2e

"That shift in pitching theory can be summed up like this: fewer sinkers, fewer low pitches, more breaking balls, more four-seam fastballs, more high pitches. The logic, while an oversimplification, goes like this: If hitters, with their uppercut swings, have figured out how to go down and scoop low fastballs — the pitcher’s bread and butter for generations — over the walls, they would have a much tougher time doing so with high fastballs and well-placed breaking balls."

"You could watch the trend play out month-to-month in the data from 2017. Here are the percentage of overall pitches leaguewide that were sinkers, month by month, according to FanGraphs: April, 19.6 percent; May, 19.0; June, 19.2; July, 18.4; August, 18.4; September/October, 16.9. That comes out to a 16 percent decline across just one season, and it continued a four-year decline in the prevalence of sinkers, from 21.5 percent of all pitches in 2014, to 20.4 percent in 2015, to 18.7 in 2016 and down to 18.6 in 2017."

"But it wasn’t only pitch selection that was changing, but also pitch placement. Here, using data from Statcast, are the month-to-month averages of pitches characterized as high in 2017: April, 27.1 percent; May, 28.8; June, 32.2; July, 33.1; August, 33.9; September/October, 33.0. (The major league leader, among pitchers who threw at least 300 pitches in 2017, was Nationals closer Sean Doolittle, with 60.8 percent of his pitches considered high.)"

“As a kid, you’re taught, ‘Down in the zone, down in the zone,’ ” said San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey, who was also a star pitcher as an amateur. “And when I first got up [to the majors], you were still seeing tons of [sinkers] and hard sliders. But now, hitters are geared to handling hard velocity down in the zone and hard sliders, so what you’re seeing is elevated four-seamers and curveballs making more of a comeback. It’s definitely something we’ve talked about this spring.”

Thank you sir. Despite "conventional wisdom " the data says the opposite. 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[thxfrthmmrs]

11 minutes ago, Jake said:

It's pretty simple. It's easier to make contact with a low pitch, but the contact on a high pitch is more likely to be productive contact. Part of the reason pitchers like to throw fastballs in the low part of the zone is to generate weak contact, but also to set up offspeed pitches that are designed to look like the same pitch. When you fool a guy with speed, you want the pitch low because he'll pull away from it. But if you only throw offspeed pitches low, then you'll have no deception on them.

I think this was the case until hitters learned to adjust their swing plane to the pitch to get a better launch angle at certain pitches. The sinker is one that's getting hit the hardest during this launch angle revolution, and pitchers are cutting back on the usage and going for rising fastballs instead and combining it with more breaking ball usage.

[thxfrthmmrs]

This is 2017 data but the 2 seamer/sinker has the highest xwOBA (worst outcome for pitchers) out of all pitches. I assume it was worse in 2018 with the number of hitters refining their swing plane.

https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-best-hitters-by-pitch-type-in-2017-c263978558

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

25 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

What about batting average dude? Hitters have a hard time catching up to high fastball at premium velocity.

Seriously, read this article. It debunks all the outdated ideologies you're throwing out here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-more-mlb-batters-become-launch-angle-disciples-pitchers-are-quietly-adapting/2018/03/27/ecace82c-2dda-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.ae5e7f2a9f2e

"That shift in pitching theory can be summed up like this: fewer sinkers, fewer low pitches, more breaking balls, more four-seam fastballs, more high pitches. The logic, while an oversimplification, goes like this: If hitters, with their uppercut swings, have figured out how to go down and scoop low fastballs — the pitcher’s bread and butter for generations — over the walls, they would have a much tougher time doing so with high fastballs and well-placed breaking balls."

"You could watch the trend play out month-to-month in the data from 2017. Here are the percentage of overall pitches leaguewide that were sinkers, month by month, according to FanGraphs: April, 19.6 percent; May, 19.0; June, 19.2; July, 18.4; August, 18.4; September/October, 16.9. That comes out to a 16 percent decline across just one season, and it continued a four-year decline in the prevalence of sinkers, from 21.5 percent of all pitches in 2014, to 20.4 percent in 2015, to 18.7 in 2016 and down to 18.6 in 2017."

"But it wasn’t only pitch selection that was changing, but also pitch placement. Here, using data from Statcast, are the month-to-month averages of pitches characterized as high in 2017: April, 27.1 percent; May, 28.8; June, 32.2; July, 33.1; August, 33.9; September/October, 33.0. (The major league leader, among pitchers who threw at least 300 pitches in 2017, was Nationals closer Sean Doolittle, with 60.8 percent of his pitches considered high.)"

“As a kid, you’re taught, ‘Down in the zone, down in the zone,’ ” said San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey, who was also a star pitcher as an amateur. “And when I first got up [to the majors], you were still seeing tons of [sinkers] and hard sliders. But now, hitters are geared to handling hard velocity down in the zone and hard sliders, so what you’re seeing is elevated four-seamers and curveballs making more of a comeback. It’s definitely something we’ve talked about this spring.”

Holy shit. I'm gonna shoot myself in the head. It debunks nothing. 

The entire premise of this discussion was they claimed it's easier to elevate a low pitch than a high one (wrong) and that exit velocity on high pitches is lower than low pitches (wrong.)

Yet here you are quoting some nonsense. I literally already proved my point with actual data and outcomes. Facts. sorry if that bothers you. 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I think this was the case until hitters learned to adjust their swing plane to the pitch to get a better launch angle at certain pitches. The sinker is one that's getting hit the hardest during this launch angle revolution, and pitchers are cutting back on the usage and going for rising fastballs instead and combining it with more breaking ball usage.

Lol. The most effective pitch in 2016-2017 was a sinker thrown by zach Britton. Because he kept the pitch down. But that does not matter. 

Having someone tell me what pitchers are easier to hit is a good time though. Maybe someone else can tell me to hit the batting cage- because apparently my 18 years of baseball playing wasn't enough for me to draw conclusions.

No one is saying oooo man I hope he throws me a low slider instead of a high fastball. 

In fact, off speed rates have gone up significantly league wide because they're harder to hit than fastballs.

Edited March 11, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Lol. The most effective pitch in 2016-2017 was a sinker thrown by zach Britton. Because he kept the pitch down. But that does not matter. 

Having someone tell me what pitchers are easier to hit is a good time though. Maybe someone else can tell me to hit the batting cage- because apparently my 18 years of baseball playing wasn't enough for me to draw conclusions.

No one is saying oooo man I hope he throws me a low slider instead of a high fastball. 

In fact, off speed rates have gone up significantly league wide because they're harder to hit than fastballs.

Probably because they aren't throwing them high enough. High fastballs are hard for major leaguers to hit. I posted an article. One guy says high ones look like they are 200 MPH. Another guys says you have to cheat to catch up to it....

 

[Jack Parkman]

30 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

This is 2017 data but the 2 seamer/sinker has the highest xwOBA (worst outcome for pitchers) out of all pitches. I assume it was worse in 2018 with the number of hitters refining their swing plane.

https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-best-hitters-by-pitch-type-in-2017-c263978558

This is the article I was referring to. Thank you so much for finding it, and this is the basis for my argument. The point is that the low fastball is the pitch that has the worst outcome for pitchers. It is quite literally the worst pitch you can throw. 

Btw, my argument remains, that low fastballs lead to the worst outcome for a pitcher. It doesn't matter how it is achieved, the data says low fastballs=bad. 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[thxfrthmmrs]

33 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Holy shit. I'm gonna shoot myself in the head. It debunks nothing. 

The entire premise of this discussion was they claimed it's easier to elevate a low pitch than a high one (wrong) and that exit velocity on high pitches is lower than low pitches (wrong.)

Yet here you are quoting some nonsense. I literally already proved my point with actual data and outcomes. Facts. sorry if that bothers you. 

If you take a second to read the articles I provided, it clearly tells you 1) the low fastball/sinker lead to the worst outcome for pitchers. 2) more pitchers are ditching the low fastball and throwing more high fastballs, which led to better results.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If you take a second to read the articles I provided, it clearly tells you 1) the low fastball/sinker lead to the worst outcome for pitchers. 2) more pitchers are ditching the low fastball and throwing more high fastballs, which led to better results.

Even pitchers that aren't throwing the ball low as often still throw the majority if pitches LOW in the zone.

No one said anything about one pitch. Its location based and once again everything i have said is factually and statistically accurate.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Even pitchers that aren't throwing the ball low as often still throw the majority if pitches LOW in the zone.

No one said anything about one pitch. Its location based and once again everything i have said is factually and statistically accurate.

We were always talking about fastballs dude. We were discussing the philosophy "hard high, slow low" based on the comment I made yesterday. 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

20 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Why the fuck are they calling for low fastballs??? This isn't 1985 anymore. Low fastballs might as well be right down the middle unless they're painting the corners. It is like the Sox haven't heard of launch angle. Low fastballs get crushed in this day and age. 

@Look at Ray Ray Run

This is the comment I made that started the conversation. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It baffles me how anyone would think low balls have a higher launch angle than high balls. Here's an article stating how that is wrong.

https://community.fangraphs.com/effect-of-pitch-selection-on-launch-angle-and-exit-velocity/

It is basic math - the higher the pitch the higher the exit angle. Low balls are harder to lift.

I find it comical you quote sources you do not read through and pretend that is supports your argument and claim to be correct. The article you posted factually does not prove your point that high fastball are easier to barrel up.

"Of course that doesn’t mean higher pitches are better to swing at, high pitches are also known to induce more pop-ups and whiffs on certain types of fastballs (high spin) but for players who have trouble to elevate the ball it can make sense to swing a little less in the lower part of the zone. On the other hand a high whiff or popup rate type of player who has a good launch angle it might make sense to leave the high pitches alone."

Focus on that part of the statement, the paradigm shift is hitters are learning to elevate the low fastballs so they do not have to hit the high fastball, which have known (and statistically proven) to lead to worse outcome.