Have we hit bottom?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Many thought the 2018 season was rock bottom for this rebuild, then the 2018-2019 offseason happened. I think we’ve hit rock bottom and things start looking up from here.

What do you think? Do you agree or do you think worse times are still ahead?

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Many thought the 2018 season was rock bottom for this rebuild, then the 2018-2019 offseason happened. I think we’ve hit rock bottom and things start looking up from here.

What do you think? Do you agree or do you think worse times are still ahead?

Worse would be a Jimenez OPS under 800 (considering he's pretty one-dimensional) and any type of major injury to Moncada, Luis Robert, Dylan Cease, Madrigal, or setback to Kopech in his rehab.

So no, we haven't reached the bottom, yet.

Or the Cubs going on another tear in the NL Central over the next 2-3 years while our rebuild fails to take off.

Getting trolled by Padres' owner/fans and the Phillies doesn't make things any easier, though.  It's kind of embarrassing for a major market like Chicago to be blown out of the water by SD, of all places.  It's a really cool city, but c'mon.  It's not SF, NY, Chicago, LA, etc.

[GreenSox]

Yes, we'll do better than 62 wins for the foreseeable future.  So we've hit bottom in the single season sense.

Have we hit bottom in the consecutive losing season sense?  Don't see a light at the end of that tunnel.  But some better pitching would help.

[turnin' two]

8 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Yes, we'll do better than 62 wins for the foreseeable future.  So we've hit bottom in the single season sense.

Have we hit bottom in the consecutive losing season sense?  Don't see a light at the end of that tunnel.  But some better pitching would help.

It had better come from within.  Can't see them spending on a top tier starter.  Probably not even 2nd tier.  If there is any hope, Kopech, Cease, and Dunning better all hit their ceilings, or close to them.    

[Harry Chappas]

I think we are rock bottom but not necessarily looking good going forward.

[zisk]

3 hours ago, Harry Chappas said:

I think we are rock bottom but not necessarily looking good going forward.

You might be right, but in my opinion it was last year. Almost every thing went wrong last year including the Kopech gut punch.

If we just have bad luck instead of horrible luck this year, we will take a step forward.

[Moan4Yoan]

8 hours ago, turnin' two said:

It had better come from within.  Can't see them spending on a top tier starter.  Probably not even 2nd tier.  If there is any hope, Kopech, Cease, and Dunning better all hit their ceilings, or close to them.    

This.  The Sox front office has proven they won’t pay market value for premier free agents so expect only second tier free agents and “value” veteran retread acquisitions like we saw this offseason going forward.  The young starters will have to hit at a high volume for the Sox rebuild to be successful.

[Springfield Soxfan]

I have never been more down on the Sox in my life.  Have not given up hope and will love this team.   However, with the lack of a marquee free agent and all the pitching prospects going down or flaming out (except for Cease), I am starting to lose hope. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, sox71 said:

I have never been more down on the Sox in my life.  Have not given up hope and will love this team.   However, with the lack of a marquee free agent and all the pitching prospects going down or flaming out (except for Cease), I am starting to lose hope. 

It’s always darkest before dawn ?

[hogan873]

I believe we've hit bottom.  The problem is that we may spend quite a while at the bottom.  2019 looking better and 2020 and beyond being competitive years currently hinges on all or most of the prospects living up to their potential.  It was shown this off season that the team cannot compete in the big FA sweepstakes, so there's no reason to believe that they will be signing a big name next off season.

I was thinking at the end of last season that the Sox could be a surprise contender in 2019.  Now I don't think it's a possibility until 2021 at the earliest...and that may be a stretch.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Harper2Sox said:

This.  The Sox front office has proven they won’t pay market value for premier free agents so expect only second tier free agents and “value” veteran retread acquisitions like we saw this offseason going forward.  The young starters will have to hit at a high volume for the Sox rebuild to be successful.

Jay, Guyer and McCann seem closer to Third Tier if there was such a category...

[Balta1701]

On paper the White Sox are a better team right now than they were to finish last season, with a marginal improvement in the bullpen, Eloy added, and minor downgrades across several other positions in the lineup. Furthermore, some of the guys they played for the full year last year should improve. So, on paper, they should have hit bottom last season - but it's not a guarantee. What would it take for this team to be worse next year? Struggles from the guys who struggled last year, and 1 or 2 major injuries, just like last year. Basically, for 2018 to not have been rock bottom, things just need to go like they did last year, which is at least worrisome because there's a clear path for how it could happen.

Hopefully that's a remote chance and when the season is over people will act like it was obvious how much they were going to improve this year, but it's not overly pessimistic to worry at this point, because you can back that storyline up with how things went last year.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

On paper the White Sox are a better team right now than they were to finish last season, with a marginal improvement in the bullpen, Eloy added, and minor downgrades across several other positions in the lineup. Furthermore, some of the guys they played for the full year last year should improve. So, on paper, they should have hit bottom last season - but it's not a guarantee. What would it take for this team to be worse next year? Struggles from the guys who struggled last year, and 1 or 2 major injuries, just like last year. Basically, for 2018 to not have been rock bottom, things just need to go like they did last year, which is at least worrisome because there's a clear path for how it could happen.

Hopefully that's a remote chance and when the season is over people will act like it was obvious how much they were going to improve this year, but it's not overly pessimistic to worry at this point, because you can back that storyline up with how things went last year.

Madrigal, Cease and Robert...along with that #3 pick, and another #3-7 in 2020, that’s a big risk to wager the rebuild on without at least two 3-5 fWAR players (one pitcher, one hitter) from outside the organization.

Catcher has to be the most concerning, along with that Lester/Shields/Verlander “over the top” veteran pitching acquisition.  They simply can’t blow that like they have over and over again since Dunn.

There’s no easy replacement for Yasmani Grandal if we can’t sign him...maybe trading for Austin Hedges with Mejia supplanting him.  Gary Sanchez is another bad season away from being pushed out of N.Y., but is not good enough defensively (sound familiar?)

[Harry Chappas]

3 hours ago, Harper2Sox said:

This.  The Sox front office has proven they won’t pay market value for premier free agents so expect only second tier free agents and “value” veteran retread acquisitions like we saw this offseason going forward.  The young starters will have to hit at a high volume for the Sox rebuild to be successful.

The issue is this organization has hit on very low volume of developing players and there is no reason to believe they will hit on any more than one or  two of the current crop and we were shown that they will not bid properly for free agents so in 5 years we will most likely be where we are now.

The ineptness of this front office is shown in this past off-season by over paying for bad free agents and then trading for a $9M contract for a worthless player from a divisional for looking to cut salary. 

The fact that Jon Jay is making more then Adam Jones ends any debate of the front office having any kind of clue. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

The issue is this organization has hit on very low volume of developing players and there is no reason to believe they will hit on any more than one or  two of the current crop and we were shown that they will not bid properly for free agents so in 5 years we will most likely be where we are now.

The ineptness of this front office is shown in this past off-season by over paying for bad free agents and then trading for a $9M contract for a worthless player from a divisional for looking to cut salary. 

The fact that Jon Jay is making more then Adam Jones ends any debate of the front office having any kind of clue. 

At first I thought you were talking about Nova at $9 million....that will go down with Derek Holland as more wasted money.  Why not try something new, like a Japanese or Korean just to see if something sticks to the wall?

What, KW ran out of videotape from JPL?

[NWINFan]

The White Sox have hit bottom, but 2019 will be a very important year. We just can't keep hearing about all these great prospects. They have to get to the major league level and develop.  Another 100-loss year and any other Kopech type setback will not instill confidence. Regardless, I don't see this team do anything significant until 2021.

[GreatScott82]

If you don't want to spend market value on premium free agents, then you sure as hell better be good at draft and development. The Sox are just brutal at developing from within. This has been the biggest problem over the years. Even teams who do not undergo full on rebuilds still bring up prospects to perform for their MLB clubs. Hahn has done a nice job bringing in some high level prospects, but the development aspect is the killer. Also, having an owner to fully commit to NOT spending market value will hinder any chance at accelerating this process. KW and Hahn will continue to take daggers for Uncle Jerry, but we all know he is the problem. Also, KW and Hahn have done a horrible job bringing in free agents as well. So not only has the prospect development be poor, but pro scouting has been poor. Where is the accountability here? None. We are forced to let these same guys who dug this horrible organizational hole be the ones in charge of rebuilding a team? For me, this is rock bottom as a fan.Let's not forget one of KW or Hahn lied to us after Machado signed with SD. One guy told us that money wouldn't be a hindrance when the time came for acquiring premium free agent talent. Another guys said "we just couldn't go to that $300 million level" Hmmm? Are we stupid? The trust level is completely shot. They need to do something bold very soon to earn our trust back, because it's gone right now. And we know nobody will be getting fired. Most organizations would have made changes to the front office a long time ago. Yes, Eloy will likely be good. And there is hope for guys like Madrigal, Rutherford, Gonzalez, and Robert, but there are no guarantees. And the track record has indicated that this rebuild will likely fail- due to the three guys who run this team. 

Edited March 12, 2019 by GreatScott82

[Lip Man 1]

Until the White Sox prove they can develop their young kids AND actually keep them healthy, I'd say they haven't hit rock bottom yet.

[flavum]

3 minutes ago, GreatScott82 said:

If you don't want to spend market value on premium free agents, then you sure as hell better be good at draft and development. The Sox are just brutal at developing from within. This has been the biggest problem over the years. Even teams who do not undergo full on rebuilds still bring up prospects to perform for their MLB clubs. Hahn has done a nice job bringing in some high level prospects, but the development aspect is the killer. Also, having an owner to fully commit to NOT spending market value will hinder any chance at accelerating this process. KW and Hahn will continue to take daggers for Uncle Jerry, but we all know he is the problem. Also, KW and Hahn have done a horrible job bringing in free agents as well. So not only has the prospect development be poor, but pro scouting has been poor. Where is the accountability here? None. We are forced to let these same guys who dug this horrible organizational hole be the ones in charge of rebuilding a team? For me, this is rock bottom as a fan.Let's not forget one of KW or Hahn lied to us after Machado signed with SD. One guy told us that money wouldn't be a hindrance when the time came for acquiring premium free agent talent. Another guys said "we just couldn't go to that $300 million level" Hmmm? Are we stupid? The trust level is completely shot. They need to do something bold very soon to earn our trust back, because it's gone right now. And we know nobody will be getting fired. Most organizations would have made changes to the front office a long time ago. Yes, Eloy will likely be good. And there is hope for guys like Madrigal, Rutherford, Gonzalez, and Robert, but there are no guarantees. And the track record has indicated that this rebuild will likely fail- due to the three guys who run this team. 

Can’t argue with any of that. We’re really in a wait-and-see mode over the next couple years. If the Sox aren’t a winning team set for a 2021-2025 run, hopefully Reinsdorf will be stepping aside/selling, or whatever by then so a new regime will have the guts to clean house thoroughly. Until then, we hope the prospects we have figure it out.

[caulfield12]

1.2 million in attendance is going to be it, hopefully.

A 60% falloff in attendance from 2007.

Of course, they’ll still be wildly profitable unless they spend another $42 million on buddies/family/friends of Top 2019-20 Free Agents.

Rumors are they are seriously thinking about relocating Trout’s entire hometown in NJ to The Village of Bedford Park.

Edited March 12, 2019 by caulfield12

[Cashman]

The Sox hit rock bottom, when they failed to land a major FA this offseason. We have become the Pirates. 

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Cashman said:

The Sox hit rock bottom, when they failed to land a major FA this offseason. We have become the Pirates. 

Minus the much nicer and newer stadium and the cool downtown location....and the picturesque Clemente Bridge/Statue.

Definitely some similarities, dumping fan favorites McCutcheon, Cole, Mercer, Harrison, etc.

Edited March 12, 2019 by caulfield12

[wegner]

I think this season's record will be better just because the pen is improved.  I do not expect them to be much better than a .500 club in 2020 and then vying for the playoffs in 2021.

 I do not expect the Sox to be players for any of the big free agents but I do expect them to be in the hunt for the next level down players that can help fill out a nice roster.  I hope if that is the route they take that they will be aggressive early in the free agent season with a little more than market value approach to sign them quickly before other teams start heavily bidding on them.  The less than stellar free agents are getting shorter term deals these days and that is right in the Sox wheel house...unfortunately.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, wegner said:

I think this season's record will be better just because the pen is improved.  I do not expect them to be much better than a .500 club in 2020 and then vying for the playoffs in 2021.

 I do not expect the Sox to be players for any of the big free agents but I do expect them to be in the hunt for the next level down players that can help fill out a nice roster.  I hope if that is the route they take that they will be aggressive early in the free agent season with a little more than market value approach to sign them quickly before other teams start heavily bidding on them.  The less than stellar free agents are getting shorter term deals these days and that is right in the Sox wheel house...unfortunately.

Except we did the opposite this offseason, struck too early and paid above market value for Nova, Herrera, Jay, McCann...overpaid for Colome in terms of trade value and under appreciating Narvaez...overpaying by giving anything (Call) away and assuming Alonso’s contract when the Indians likely would have been forced to discount/subsidize him closer to March 29th.  

[wegner]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except we did the opposite this offseason, struck too early and paid above market value for Nova, Herrera, Jay, McCann...overpaid for Colome in terms of trade value and under appreciating Narvaez...overpaying by giving anything (Call) away and assuming Alonso’s contract when the Indians likely would have been forced to discount/subsidize him closer to March 29th.  

I am not counting Jay and McCann as players to target when you are serious about being competitive.  Nova should be a decent innings eater and veteran presence.  It seems that you do have to overpay to get good bullpen arms.  Listen, I wish the Sox would be in on the bigger free agents but clearly they will not be and I am done with hoping that they will.  I am not going to start rooting for another club so I just hope that a strategy of targeting the right guys to work with a younger core that is going to need to be good works.  I do agree with you that this was a crappy offseason.