Eloy officially got paid

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, TomPickle said:

I will say that this deal could make a ton of sense depending on how it is structured. If they don't go super cheap on the first three years say something like this

2019: $5 MM
2020: $8 MM
2021: $10 MM
2022-24: $15 MM
2025-26: $16 MM

If Eloy lives up to the billing it would be very valuable to have a guy like that making something in the mid teens. You would be "over-paying" in the short term, but the White Sox can definitely afford to eat that small cost with the payroll as it currently stands.

They won't put that much money into the front 3 years, because they don't want to establish a precedent that other teams could use.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Bingo.  And if you break it down by year, it could save the Sox a ton of money too if he hits like the Sox think he is going to hit.

A couple of people have pointed this out and I think they might be right. 

2019, 2020, 2021 - pre arb.

2022: $12 million
2023: $15 million
2024: $20 million
2025: $25 million
2026: $30 million

I get $104 million counting pre-arb years and those numbers, all of which are high compared to current players. Unless the CBA totally demolishes the arbitration payment system, there's not a lot of savings if it's only through 2026 and $100m.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Chisox378 said:

I'm not looking to scare anybody but Eloy Jiminez 2019 Spring Training Stats:

26PA

.154 BA

9 K's

0 BB

Sox not developing players right.

No.  Just no.

[DirtySox]

Any followup to Hector's tweet anywhere else? I hadn't even considered if this is a good deal or not from a monetary perspective. I just selfishly want to watch Eloy as early and as much as possible

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A couple of people have pointed this out and I think they might be right. 

2019, 2020, 2021 - pre arb.

2022: $12 million
2023: $15 million
2024: $20 million
2025: $25 million
2026: $30 million

I get $104 million counting pre-arb years and those numbers, all of which are high compared to current players. Unless the CBA totally demolishes the arbitration payment system, there's not a lot of savings if it's only through 2026 and $100m.

Your front ends are heavy and your back ends are light based on what arb figures are and the types of dollars that usually come in those years.

[Dick Allen]

The one worry you have is what this would do to Eloy's motivation. A lot of guys have been paid and all of a sudden the performance drops off. Usually guys are very hungry at his age. 

Now, I'm trying to get in touch with Gene Lamont's people. I have to do better than Caulfield's YMCA with him. Maybe kiss cam.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your front ends are heavy and your back ends are light based on what arb figures are and the types of dollars that usually come in those years.

I very much disagree with your statement. The highest 1st year arbitration is still Bryant, at $10.9 million so $12 million is clearly higher. The highest 4th year arbitration dollar amount currently is Josh Donaldson, who got $23 million last year. Arenado filed for $30 this year, the Rockies filed for $24, but they agreed to a contract instead. Every single one of those years would break the current arbitration record for that year of arbitration. I could be a couple million light if those records fall before then, so if mentally you want to raise the total to $106 or $107 go ahead, but that calculation is right in a reasonable arbitration range for him assuming he's an elite player. 

[mqr]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The one worry you have is what this would do to Eloy's motivation. A lot of guys have been paid and all of a sudden the performance drops off. Usually guys are very hungry at his age. 

Now, I'm trying to get in touch with Gene Lamont's people. I have to do better than Caulfield's YMCA with him. Maybe kiss cam.

I really don't have any concerns about that with Eloy. He seems to have a special kind of makeup

[Dick Allen]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A couple of people have pointed this out and I think they might be right. 

2019, 2020, 2021 - pre arb.

2022: $12 million
2023: $15 million
2024: $20 million
2025: $25 million
2026: $30 million

I get $104 million counting pre-arb years and those numbers, all of which are high compared to current players. Unless the CBA totally demolishes the arbitration payment system, there's not a lot of savings if it's only through 2026 and $100m.

And that's if he performs at MVP levels. I don't see the motivation for the White Sox unless their are team options involved.

[mqr]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

And that's if he performs at MVP levels. I don't see the motivation for the White Sox unless their are team options involved.

If there's not, there won't be a deal. I'd bet the house on that. 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I very much disagree with your statement. The highest 1st year arbitration is still Bryant, at $10.9 million so $12 million is clearly higher. The highest 4th year arbitration dollar amount currently is Josh Donaldson, who got $23 million last year. Arenado filed for $30 this year, the Rockies filed for $24, but they agreed to a contract instead. Every single one of those years would break the current arbitration record for that year of arbitration. I could be a couple million light if those records fall before then, so if mentally you want to raise the total to $106 or $107 go ahead, but that calculation is right in a reasonable arbitration range for him assuming he's an elite player. 

Which is exactly what I said.  Your front ends are too heavy.  The Sox aren't going to create a deal that breaks records in each year.  The heaviest years will be the FA years, which will be options.  I laid out a 6/39 deal up front, with the last $60 million coming in years 7 and 8 earlier that also follows a decent arb progression.  A few dollars push up front, while it gets WAY bigger at the end.

19- $1m

20-$1.5m

21-$2m 

22-$5m

23-$10m

24-$20m

25-$30m*

26-$30m*

[mqr]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Which is exactly what I said.  Your front ends are too heavy.  The Sox aren't going to create a deal that breaks records in each year.  The heaviest years will be the FA years, which will be options.  I laid out a 6/39 deal up front, with the last $60 million coming in years 7 and 8 earlier that also follows a decent arb progression.  A few dollars push up front, while it gets WAY bigger at the end.

19- $1m

20-$1.5m

21-$2m 

22-$5m

23-$10m

24-$20m

25-$30m*

26-$30m*

I would think the pre-arb would be a touch higher, but yeah this is what I envision and I would sign that deal right this second. 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

And that's if he performs at MVP levels. I don't see the motivation for the White Sox unless their are team options involved.

There will be.  100%.  Think of the basic structure of the Anderson/Sale/Q/Eaton deals looked like.

[OneDog847]

So the Sox weren't willing to set the market for a couple of 26 year old superstars but are willing to set the market for a kid who hasn't had a single at bat in the Show yet? 

This is either gonna be a genius move, or blow up terribly in their faces if Eloy busts or catches the injury bug that seems to be going around the Sox right now. 

Why didn't the Cubs do this with Bryant/Baez or the Astros with Bregman/Springer? 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Which is exactly what I said.  Your front ends are too heavy.  The Sox aren't going to create a deal that breaks records in each year.  The heaviest years will be the FA years, which will be options.  I laid out a 6/39 deal up front, with the last $60 million coming in years 7 and 8 earlier that also follows a decent arb progression.  A few dollars push up front, while it gets WAY bigger at the end.

19- $1m

20-$1.5m

21-$2m 

22-$5m

23-$10m

24-$20m

25-$30m*

26-$30m*

I wasn't looking at the White Sox contract structure, I was looking at how much he'd make in arbitration deals. The fact that it comes in at just over $100 million would mean that a $100 million guaranteed deal basically offers nothing for the White Sox. Are the asterisks making the last 2 years option years? Because then that setup makes sense, because the guarantee is only $40 million. The White Sox give up a $40 million guarantee in exchange for cost security and for him giving up 1 year of free agency. 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I wasn't looking at the White Sox contract structure, I was looking at how much he'd make in arbitration deals. The fact that it comes in at just over $100 million would mean that a $100 million guaranteed deal basically offers nothing for the White Sox. Are the asterisks making the last 2 years option years? Because then that setup makes sense, because the guarantee is only $40 million. The White Sox give up a $40 million guarantee in exchange for cost security and for him giving up 1 year of free agency. 

That is exactly what they mean and how a deal like this would get done.

[Balta1701]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

There will be.  100%.  Think of the basic structure of the Anderson/Sale/Q/Eaton deals looked like.

You're projecting stuff onto Gomez's tweet that mildly contradicts the tweet and you're wondering why we're confused by it?

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're projecting stuff onto Gomez's tweet that mildly contradicts the tweet and you're wondering why we're confused by it?

Based on the White Sox history and the history of these kind of deals it seems obvious to me, but if you feel like you need to freak out about this, feel free.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Based on the White Sox history and the history of these kind of deals it seems obvious to me, but if you feel like you need to freak out about this, feel free.

So the guaranteed rate is probably less than half of the total.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

So the guaranteed rate is probably less than half of the total.

If it does get done, I would bet on the promised money being less than $50 million, and probably more like $40.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Based on the White Sox history and the history of these kind of deals it seems obvious to me, but if you feel like you need to freak out about this, feel free.

Not a freakout on this one, just confused, but would buy your version as making sense. 

[NorthSideSox72]

I am picturing this conversation as if it is happening in a bar, and it is fantastic.

SS2K5 and Balta are off in a corner shouting big numbers at each other, not even noticing caufield yelling into a literal megaphone and wearing a sandwich board that says "I knew TIm Hullett before you were in diapers". A crowd of drunk soccer fans has gathered near caufield and they are all egging him on and buying him drinks to juice out as much entertainment as possible. Chisox378 is sitting at the end of the bar nursing a warm beer and telling the bartender the world has gone to shit and why can't we go back to Mayberry. The bouncer (Mods) are standing there mouths agape like they are watching a car crash, no idea where to even start. Others walk by the bar, see what's going on and juuuuuust keep walking. 

 

[OneDog847]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

If it does get done, I would bet on the promised money being less than $50 million, and probably more like $40.

This is the only version that would make any sense from the Sox perspective. Giving him 100 million guaranteed with no team options would be insane. 

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I am picturing this conversation as if it is happening in a bar, and it is fantastic.

SS2K5 and Balta are off in a corner shouting big numbers at each other, not even noticing caufield yelling into a literal megaphone and wearing a sandwich board that says "I knew TIm Hullett before you were in diapers". A crowd of drunk soccer fans has gathered near caufield and they are all egging him on and buying him drinks to juice out as much entertainment as possible. Chisox378 is sitting at the end of the bar nursing a warm beer and telling the bartender the world has gone to shit and why can't we go back to Mayberry. The bouncer (Mods) are standing there mouths agape like they are watching a car crash, no idea where to even start. Others walk by the bar, see what's going on and juuuuuust keep walking. 

 

Fair.

[whitesoxwinner]

Eloy doesn't seem too happy..