Eloy officially got paid

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Actually no it's pretty much the same Snell signed 5/50 into his 7th year of control plus one option year. He made the minimum prior 558K.  So it's basically 7/51

Jimenez will make 6/43 + 16.5 option it becomes 7/59.5. We paid more for a player far less accomplished.

And a player that is 3 years younger than Snell is 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes though it has seemed like pitchers are getting much less in these pre-lock-up years likely due to greater injury risk.

Would anyone even dare offer Lopez, Rodon, Kopech or Cease a deal like that, as of today?

For how much?  How many years?

[Y2Jimmy0]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You’re assuming he’s at minimum an 825-850 ops guy right off the bat...by say the deal wasn’t happening “after.”

Would the White Sox offer the equivalent contract to Moncada (to buy out one FA year) after his 2017/18 results?  Or less than what they’re willing to give Eloy?

The problem here is that Moncada and Robert have much less incentive to extend because of their initial record-setting contracts...and Kopech/Cease are way too risky with TJS surgeries in their histories.

I don't understand what this has to do with Robert and Moncada. 

I'm saying that part of the reason for doing the deal is Eloy starting with the team and not going to AAA ever again. If the Sox sent Eloy down to minors, called him up on April 26th and tried to extend him next offseason, I think the player and agent are much less inclined to do a similar deal. 

[Moan4Yoan]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox are going to pay Eloy $43 million for the same years that the Cubs will give Bryant $70 to $75 million for.

Yep, there will likely be savings.  But there are varying levels of stardom.  If Eloy isn’t the player that Kris Bryant is, the $43 million minimum may be what Eloy is worth.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I don't understand what this has to do with Robert and Moncada. 

I'm saying that part of the reason for doing the deal is Eloy starting with the team and not going to AAA ever again. If the Sox sent Eloy down to minors, called him up on April 26th and tried to extend him next offseason, I think the player and agent are much less inclined to do a similar deal. 

The bottom line is we don’t (yet) have any other young players we either should or could lock up...like the Indians, five or six at one point were locked up to team-friendly deals...especially pitching (obviously not Bauer!)

Edited March 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Harper2Sox said:

Yep, there will likely be savings.  But there are varying levels of stardom.  If Eloy isn’t the player that Kris Bryant is, the $43 million minimum may be what Eloy is worth.

This is also not taking into account any wage inflation over those six years.

[wrathofhahn]

9 hours ago, Kalapse said:

You fucked up the contract language: there is no option attached, it's a straight 5 year deal. I'll also ignore the minutia and big picture shit you're clearly missing here and just say wage theft and the neutering of unions is cool as shit. Full disclosure: I do own a Robert Nutting shirsey, only half ironically due to the name, I mostly admire his restraint.

Thanks for the information. I got it off an initial media report to the Snell extension thanks for the correction I should have looked at Snells service time to dblcheck.

There is no need to be hostile it is the players and agents job to get the best deal possible noone is chastising Jimenez for taking the money just that the organization overpaid by what appears a large margin.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

What he is saying is that if Eloy becomes a star, it’s quite possible his last 3 arb years would have been something like $10M, $16M, $24M. Obviously the Sox will be paying something far less during the season like $7.5M, $9M, and $11.5M during those seasons, and then have 2 options that should be well below market value (if he turns into a star). 

There is definitely some upside, but in order for to a be a great contract for the Sox, Eloy has to become one of the best 5 hitters in the game. I do also agree with you that they’re paying him a lot more early for potential big savings on the 6th season and the two options.

I don’t know man, this really seems like an overpay to me.  Bregman just got $100M for five addional seasons (including two free agent years).  However, when you factor in his pre-arb salaries from 2017 to 2019, they essentially got eight seasons of control for a total of $102M.  This is for a durable 24 year old coming off a 7.6 win season.

Meanwhile, Eloy who has never had a single at-bat in the majors and has a history of soft tissue injuries is potentially getting $75M over eight years.  Yes, only $43M of that is guaranteed (still unprecedented), but we’re talking about $27M difference between him and one of the best young players in all of baseball.  While I’m glad we’ve bought out a free agent year, this is extension is absolutely crazy to me from a benchmarking standpoint.  Again, I don’t dislike the move, just think it’s way more player friendly than team friendly based on recent extension & arbitration figures.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t know man, this really seems like an overpay to me.  Bregman just got $100M for five addional seasons (including two free agent years).  However, when you factor in his pre-arb salaries from 2017 to 2019, they essentially got eight seasons of control for a total of $102M.  This is for a durable 24 year old coming off a 7.6 win season.

Meanwhile, Eloy who has never had a single at-bat in the majors and has a history of soft tissue injuries is potentially getting $75M over eight years.  Yes, only $43M of that is guaranteed (still unprecedented), but we’re talking about $27M difference between him and one of the best young players in all of baseball.  While I’m glad we’ve bought out a free agent year, this is extension is absolutely crazy to me from a benchmarking standpoint.  Again, I don’t dislike the move, just think it’s way more player friendly than team friendly based on recent extension & arbitration figures.

100% agreed.

Yet aother $50+ million this offseason that could have been earmarked to Machado/Harper to turn this thing around...

Edited March 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[wrathofhahn]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t know man, this really seems like an overpay to me.  Bregman just got $100M for five addional seasons (including two free agent years).  However, when you factor in his pre-arb salaries from 2017 to 2019, they essentially got eight seasons of control for a total of $102M.  This is for a durable 24 year old coming off a 7.6 win season.

Meanwhile, Eloy who has never had a single at-bat in the majors and has a history of soft tissue injuries is potentially getting $75M over eight years.  Yes, only $43M of that is guaranteed (still unprecedented), but we’re talking about $27M difference between him and one of the best young players in all of baseball.  While I’m glad we’ve bought out a free agent year, this is extension is absolutely crazy to me from a benchmarking standpoint.  Again, I don’t dislike the move, just think it’s way more player friendly than team friendly based on recent extension & arbitration figures.

Agreed. I think we could have waited and if we wanted to lock up Eloy we could have done so for similar money.

I don't understand the need to do this now unless we were getting a bunch of options on FA years which didn't happen at least according to reports.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t know man, this really seems like an overpay to me.  Bregman just got $100M for five addional seasons (including two free agent years).  However, when you factor in his pre-arb salaries from 2017 to 2019, they essentially got eight seasons of control for a total of $102M.  This is for a durable 24 year old coming off a 7.6 win season.

Meanwhile, Eloy who has never had a single at-bat in the majors and has a history of soft tissue injuries is potentially getting $75M over eight years.  Yes, only $43M of that is guaranteed (still unprecedented), but we’re talking about $27M difference between him and one of the best young players in all of baseball.  While I’m glad we’ve bought out a free agent year, this is extension is absolutely crazy to me from a benchmarking standpoint.  Again, I don’t dislike the move, just think it’s way more player friendly than team friendly based on recent extension & arbitration figures.

I think that is a fair take.  Definitely curious to see how they spread out the money.  Would like them to pay him a fat signing bonus and lower the amounts due later on.  As SS2K and I have pointed out, there is definitely still upside, but I do think another club option or two at the backend would have been appropriate considering the unprecedented nature of this deal.  

All in all, I am happy with it.  But I will reserve final judgement until I see the finalized terms. 

[ChiSox59]

Just now, wrathofhahn said:

Agreed. I think we could have waited and if we wanted to lock up Eloy we could have done so for similar money.

I don't understand the need to do this now unless we were getting a bunch of options on FA years which didn't happen at least according to reports.

Right or wrong, I think part of the timing has to do with how this offseason has played out.  

[Chicago White Sox]

31 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This.

For example, using the numbers above, none of which are records, but high end dollars TODAY, and not accounting for any inflation in 4 seasons.

'22 getting $7.5, could be $10m= $2.5m savings

'23 9m/16m = 7m

'24 11.5m/24 = $12.5m

'25 16.5m/25m = 8.5m

'26 18.5m/25m= 6.5m

Total saved in this scenario is $37.5 million on the end years.  If you push his free agent years into the $30m range, based off thinking he will be a stage below Arenado and Trout, that pushes the savings to $47.5 million.  If we get some wage inflation that pushes a free agent deal for him into the $35 million range, we are talking about nearly $60 million in savings.

You’re overinflating the savings here.  We bought out one free agent year, yet you’re treating it like two.  You’re also ignoring the fact we’re paying him $9M above what he would have made in his pre-arb seasons.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re overinflating the savings here.  We bought out one free agent year, yet you’re treating it like two.  You’re also ignoring the fact we’re paying him $9M above what he would have made in his pre-arb seasons.

Not really, no.  As I said, I could have inflated the numbers pretty easily, both to match the current top stars on the market, and to add in wage inflation over those 6-8 years.

[Jake]

Anyone else find it strange that there still is no announcement from Sox on this?

Any reason the commissioner's office might scrutinize this? Or would we really wait out Eloy's "head cold" before completing (yet another) physical?

[Orlando]

Ok guys, no need to worry. The Sox just released Guyer so now we know what the hold up was. Expect an announcement on Eloy shortly 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Jake said:

Anyone else find it strange that there still is no announcement from Sox on this?

Any reason the commissioner's office might scrutinize this? Or would we really wait out Eloy's "head cold" before completing (yet another) physical?

It is probably as simple as the news got out before the Sox were done with this.

[Chicago White Sox]

44 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox are going to pay Eloy $43 million for the same years that the Cubs will give Bryant $70 to $75 million for.

That’s not an accurate comparison.  The Cubs will have paid Bryant (an MVP winner) a total of $26M for his first five seasons.  He will have to increase his 2019 salary of $13M by ~30% next year just to match Eloy’s guaranteed money over his first six years.  That will likely happen if he has a rebound in performance, but the difference between what he’ll get paid and what we just guaranteed Eloy should be minimal for those same seasons.  Yes, there is some upside in year 7 as well, but this is 100% about buying a single free agent year.  That’s where almost all the value in this extension resides.

And I’ll keep saying it, but I don’t dislike the move.  I just don’t think it’s that team friendly compared to many other extensions including the Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Anderson deals.  I think Hahn/KW overpaid here a bit relative to other benchmarks, but if that’s the price of locking down Eloy for an 8th year so be it.  I’m just not going to sugar coat this deal and make it look this is some steal when IMO it isn’t.

 

[Dominikk85]

43m is a lot but if he becomes a top30 hitter he will easily make 35+ in arbitration. Of course he could bust but I don't think this is a bad deal especially since they get two options.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s not an accurate comparison.  The Cubs will have paid Bryant (an MVP winner) a total of $26M for his first five seasons.  He will have to increase his 2019 salary of $13M by ~30% next year just to match Eloy’s guaranteed money over his first six years.  That will likely happen if he has a rebound in performance, but the difference between what he’ll get paid and what we just guaranteed Eloy should be minimal for those same seasons.  Yes, there is some upside in year 7 as well, but this is 100% about buying a single free agent year.  That’s where almost all the value in this extension resides.

And I’ll keep saying it, but I don’t dislike the move.  I just don’t think it’s that team friendly compared to many other extensions including the Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Anderson deals.  I think Hahn/KW overpaid here a bit relative to other benchmarks, but if that’s the price of locking down Eloy for an 8th year so be it.  I’m just not going to sugar coat this deal and make it look this is some steal when IMO it isn’t.

 

Chris Sale's extension was signed in 2013.  Clearly it is going to be different than what Eloy is signing in 2019. But it is also worth noting what players were getting in free agency in 2013, and recognizing that six years of inflation are also in play there.  Then project that forward to 2026.  Top players aren't going to be getting $25 to $30 million a season then.  I mean that is supposedly why everyone is so upset about how "cheap" the Harper and Machado deals were that the Sox didn't offer, so now the Sox have Eloy wrapped up for a fraction of those costs.

The same applies to Q and Eaton as well.  Anderson was never has highly ranked as Jimenez, and that deal was signed a couple of years ago.

[ChiSox59]

25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re overinflating the savings here.  We bought out one free agent year, yet you’re treating it like two.  You’re also ignoring the fact we’re paying him $9M above what he would have made in his pre-arb seasons.

I think you’re underestimating what Eloy would make in his 4 arb seasons. If he is 75% as good as we hope he is, he’s going to be playing at a very nice discount in years 4-6 of this contract. Plus you have the option years, that is reported correctly, should be at an AAV of $17M, which should be a good value even if Eloy isn’t a superstar. 

[Dick Allen]

If he's a star, the Sox come out a bit ahead. If he sucks, Eloy comes out ahead. If he's just a good player, whatever the difference really doesn't matter. If he's good enough the Sox still want him 6 or 7 years from now, that's a good sign.

[Chicago White Sox]

59 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And the Angels paid an extra $70 million for waiting versus what this deal covers.  It is the poster child for getting a deal like this done as soon as possible.

Are we now comparing Eloy to arguably the best player in baseball history?

[bmags]

53 minutes ago, Jake said:

Anyone else find it strange that there still is no announcement from Sox on this?

Any reason the commissioner's office might scrutinize this? Or would we really wait out Eloy's "head cold" before completing (yet another) physical?

I saw he missed yesterday with a sinus infection so maybe he's just really sick? 

edit: ANNNND i read your full post which included this. I think if there's a press conference announcement they may wait. Or there are some minor "incentives" they are working out.

[southsider2k5]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are we now comparing Eloy to arguably the best player in baseball history?

$70 million is a ton of money.