CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 36 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I disagree, and apparently it seems GMs are more in line with my thinking. I wouldn't be surprised if he is given anything but a minor league contract this year, if anything at all. He may have thrown his last pitch in MLB. Not to mention the dude is always injured. It actually is a hot take. Maybe you end up being right .But he is not always injured. He pitched over 200 innings last year and faced the most batters in the AL. His ERA was a pretty good for the AL 3.74. His WHIP was 1.314 which is a little high for him but not terrible at all. 2019 will be his age 31 season. I also wouldn't go so far as to say GM's are in agreement with you. More than likely his contract demands were too high and he hasn't lowered then enough. As recently as 2017 he made the All Star team but he did pitch only 145.2 innings which as his lowest amount since his rookie year so obviously not always injured. His projections for this year are also pretty good . If he gets a minor league deal it will pretty much be because he has taken so long to come to terms with anyone. If he has thrown his last pitch in MLB there is a serious problem with his demands or MLB free agency. Not saying he fits with the Sox but just because a few others has compared him to Shields besides you doesn't make it accurate. This from Brooks baseball: Basic description of 2018 pitches compared to other LHP: His sinker is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has surprisingly little armside run and has some natural sinking action. His slider sweeps across the zone, has exceptional depth and has below average velo. His cutter has extreme cut action and has some natural sink. His change has slightly below average velo and has some natural sink to it. His fourseam fastball is straight as an arrow, generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has some natural sinking action and has essentially average velo. The thing that separate him is his sinker and the natural sinking action on his other pitches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 (edited) 21 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: It actually is a hot take. Maybe you end up being right .But he is not always injured. He pitched over 200 innings last year and faced the most batters in the AL. His ERA was a pretty good for the AL 3.74. His WHIP was 1.314 which is a little high for him but not terrible at all. 2019 will be his age 31 season. I also wouldn't go so far as to say GM's are in agreement with you. More than likely his contract demands were too high and he hasn't lowered then enough. As recently as 2017 he made the All Star team but he did pitch only 145.2 innings which as his lowest amount since his rookie year so obviously not always injured. His projections for this year are also pretty good . If he gets a minor league deal it will pretty much be because he has taken so long to come to terms with anyone. If he has thrown his last pitch in MLB there is a serious problem with his demands or MLB free agency. Not saying he fits with the Sox but just because a few others has compared him to Shields besides you doesn't make it accurate. This from Brooks baseball: Basic description of 2018 pitches compared to other LHP: His sinker is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has surprisingly little armside run and has some natural sinking action. His slider sweeps across the zone, has exceptional depth and has below average velo. His cutter has extreme cut action and has some natural sink. His change has slightly below average velo and has some natural sink to it. His fourseam fastball is straight as an arrow, generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has some natural sinking action and has essentially average velo. The thing that separate him is his sinker and the natural sinking action on his other pitches. 1. When any pitcher's best pitch is a sinker in this day and age, It makes me believe that they're not long for MLB. You can thank the Launch Angle Revolution for that. Low pitches get kilt. Sinkers are about to go the way of the knuckleball. They're an endangered species, on its way to extinction. Dylan Covey has a wicked sinker. How's that working for him??? 2. The bolded is not a good stat, actually quite the contrary. If you face a lot of batters, that means that you're giving up a ton of walks and hits. What you want is a guy who pitches a ton of innings and faces relatively few batters for the amount of innings that he's pitched. THAT is the sign of a good pitcher. Baserunners are not a good thing. 3. Keuchel lost velo, but got some back over the last season and a half. You don't know what you're going to get from him, especially with no spring. You add all of these up, and it shows me a guy on the decline who is about to blow up a la Shields. Thanks for making my argument for me. Edited March 21, 2019 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Someone might want to tell Noah Syndergaard to stop throwing a sinker because apparently no one succeeds with them anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: 1. When any pitcher's best pitch is a sinker in this day and age, It makes me believe that they're not long for MLB. You can thank the Launch Angle Revolution for that. Low pitches get kilt. Sinkers are about to go the way of the knuckleball. They're an endangered species, on its way to extinction. Dylan Covey has a wicked sinker. How's that working for him??? 2. The bolded is not a good stat, actually quite the contrary. If you face a lot of batters, that means that you're giving up a ton of walks and hits. What you want is a guy who pitches a ton of innings and faces relatively few batters for the amount of innings that he's pitched. THAT is the sign of a good pitcher. Baserunners are not a good thing. 3. Keuchel has lost velo the last 3 seasons, IIRC. I'll look up his rolling average on fangraphs. You add all of these up, and it shows me a guy on the decline who is about to blow up a la Shields. Thanks for making my argument for me. Making your argument for you? You compared a very successful pitcher to Dylan Covey. 204 innings pitched had a lot to do with facing the most hitters yes he gave up slightly more than a hit an inning barely. It wasn't a lot of walks that led to that. Stop patting yourself on the back thinking GM's agree with you . It has everything to do with him costing a draft pick while not lowering his demands. You also have no idea what you are talking about with low pitches and launch angle with regards to Keuchel. SInkers fool hitters into thinking fastball and then the bottom drops out producing ground balls not HR's. . Keuchel gave up less HR's /9 than Verlander, only .8 , yes that's right less than 1 HR every 9 innings. If he was giving up a ton of walks and hits his WHIP would be higher than 1.314. Your argument also said he was always injured and I disproved that SO what else you got ? Did you even bother reading the Brooks baseball report " generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers," Edited March 21, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 This was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Making your argument for you? You compared a very successful pitcher to Dylan Covey. 204 innings pitched had a lot to do with facing the most hitters yes he gave up slightly more than a hit an inning barely. It wasn't a lot of walks that led to that. Stop patting yourself on the back thinking GM's agree with you . It has everything to do with him costing a draft pick while not lowering his demands. You also have no idea what you are talking about with low pitches and launch angle with regards to Keuchel. SInkers fool hitters into thinking fastball and then the bottom drops out producing ground balls not HR's. . Keuchel gave up less HR's /9 than Verlander, only .8 , yes that's right less than 1 HR every 9 innings. If he was giving up a ton of walks and hits his WHIP would be higher than 1.314. Your argument also said he was always injured and I disproved that SO what else you got ? Did you even bother reading the Brooks baseball report " generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers," Read what fangraphs has to say. It isn't particularly nice. Yes, I realize that Keuchel has been an extreme ground ball pitcher. I'm not dumb. I just don't think pitching to contact is sustainable in this day and age, and the metrics tend to agree. https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=9434&position=P&gds=&gde=&type=6 Edited March 21, 2019 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 If anyone is interested, I went to this game and wrote about some impressions: https://soxon35th.com/2019/03/21/spring-training-takeaways-march-20-2019/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: If anyone is interested, I went to this game and wrote about some impressions: https://soxon35th.com/2019/03/21/spring-training-takeaways-march-20-2019/ That is an awesome pickup that Giolito was working on his breaking balls. I'm still somewhat optimistic about Giolito this year given his velocity has returned. His ST results have been awful, but the stuff is back, which is good. Even though I'm getting more than frustrated with his results in spring, I'm willing to give him until at least the ASB, if not until the end of 2019 before writing him off like most have already done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: That is an awesome pickup that Giolito was working on his breaking balls. I'm still somewhat optimistic about Giolito this year given his velocity has returned. His ST results have been awful, but the stuff is back, which is good. Even though I'm getting more than frustrated with his results in spring, I'm willing to give him until at least the ASB, if not until the end of 2019 before writing him off like most have already done. There was a point, relatively early on, where he was pretty much all off-speed. I couldn't really tell the difference between his curveball and change-up from where I was sitting but everything was 82-83 for awhile. Then he'd reach back and mix in 96. I think part of the problem is how predictable he was, in terms of whether he was throwing off-speed or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: Read what fangraphs has to say. It isn't particularly nice. Yes, I realize that Keuchel has been an extreme ground ball pitcher. I'm not dumb. I just don't think pitching to contact is sustainable in this day and age, and the metrics tend to agree. https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=9434&position=P&gds=&gde=&type=6 The author didn't say anything so bad as you have. He said if his slider doesn't come back to where it was, he could have slightly higher than average production or worse. Whatever that means . He is certainly covering his ass with a wide array of predicted results.He didn't latch onto low pitches and launch angle like you did because his sinker and other pitcher besides than slider have natural sink on them, When you give up less than 1 HR per 9 with half your games in a band box like Houston you are doing something right. The reasoning you used is not even close to the reasons that author came to his conclusions, which might be a slightly above average pitcher or worse but if he gets his slider back to where it was he could also be quite effective once again. He is still young enough to have a couple of good years left in him but also at the age where not many get better. But saying he could be Giolito bad in 2019 is a stretch that only a guy with little understanding of pitching while also latching onto a pet theory like low balls +the age of launch angle = HR's and applying them to Keuchel is just flat out bad analysis. Next time try looking past your nose and applying cute new phrases and pet theories and actually have more than a cursory look at the pitchers repertoire and history. That way you might convince me you aren't dumb by saying things like he is constantly injured. Edited March 21, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: The author didn't say anything so bad as you have. He said if his slider doesn't come back to where it was, he could have slightly higher than average production or worse. Whatever that means . He is certainly covering his ass with a wide array of predicted results.He didn't latch onto low pitches and launch angle like you did because his sinker and other pitcher besides than slider have natural sink on them, When you give up less than 1 HR per 9 with half your games in a band box like Houston you are doing something right. The reasoning you used is not even close to the reasons that author came to his conclusions, which might be a slightly above average pitcher or worse but if he gets his slider back to where it was he could also be quite effective once again. He is still young enough to have a couple of good years left in him but also at the age where not many get better. But saying he could be Giolito bad in 2019 is a stretch that only a guy with little understanding of pitching while also latching onto a pet theory like low balls +the age of launch angle = HR's and applying them to Keuchel is just flat out bad analysis. Next time try looking past your nose and applying cute new phrases and pet theories and actually have more than a cursory look at the pitchers repertoire and history. That way you might convince me you aren't dumb by saying things like he is constantly injured. I'll admit I was working with old data, and I know what Keuchel does and doesn't do well. I just don't like the guy as a pitcher. Also, I know my pitching. I don't need anyone's validation to tell me otherwise. Edited March 21, 2019 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Why are we still doing the Keuchel bit? He costs a draft pick and wants 4 years. He makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 9 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said: Why are we still doing the Keuchel bit? He costs a draft pick and wants 4 years. He makes zero sense. Yes, Zero. Looks like the rest of MLB says the same. Every year there is one FA who just should have taken the QO, and this year it is Keuchel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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