Chris Sale nearing extension with Boston

[southsider2k5]

 

[Balta1701]

I  guess this means Boston thinks his shoulder is fine.

[chitownsportsfan]

That seems like a steal for Boston -- health depending of course.  Sale is averaging like 6 fWAR a year in Boston.  $29/m a year for that isn't bad, at all.

[Balta1701]

As a starting point, this leaves the Red Sox probably slightly below the luxury tax line for next season. They are in the 3+ year penalty so they are paying 50% on any overage, and they'll be over by nearly $30 million this season which also earns another 12.5% penalty on top of that.

[Dam8610]

48 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You can't be more injured and not injured at the same time. If he had gone down for TJS that's one thing, but the guy actually wasn't hurt. The league isn't going to give you a redo for a deal you did where even if the medical records weren't complete, there wasn't anything of note.

I remember reading somewhere that he had a back or shoulder issue that wasn't disclosed. Pomeranz wasn't injured when Boston got him, but they were allowed to reverse the trade by the league, though they chose not to. MLB's reasoning was that the Padres didn't fully disclose his injury history.

[OmarComing25]

23 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

That seems like a steal for Boston -- health depending of course.  Sale is averaging like 6 fWAR a year in Boston.  $29/m a year for that isn't bad, at all.

Even when healthy he always fades down the stretch, which is why I didn't want him to come back as I don't see that getting better into his 30s.

[caulfield12]

28 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

That seems like a steal for Boston -- health depending of course.  Sale is averaging like 6 fWAR a year in Boston.  $29/m a year for that isn't bad, at all.

$54-60 million perceived worth on FA market, there’s your surplus value...compared to the Jimenez deal.

Edited March 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[OneDog847]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Go back to 2016, post Shields. How do you fix it?

Get a new front office and sign guys like Lowrie, Chacin, and Lorenzo Cain. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Get a new front office and sign guys like Lowrie, Chacin, and Lorenzo Cain. 

You do that, and you're approaching the luxury tax. They had a $130M payroll in 2016(!!!!!) IIRC the Luxury tax was around 180M in 2017. I don't think those guys were enough anyway. Great. You've gone from 78 to 84 wins. How are you getting the next 8? 

There wasn't anything they could do to get the extra 14 wins other than have a $250M payroll. The rebuild was really the only choice. 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

As a starting point, this leaves the Red Sox probably slightly below the luxury tax line for next season. They are in the 3+ year penalty so they are paying 50% on any overage, and they'll be over by nearly $30 million this season which also earns another 12.5% penalty on top of that.

Betts might be heading for a megadeal that actually tops Trout on an open market.  Not bad for 5’9.”  There’s just no way they can also afford Bogaerts (not to mention extending Benintendi) unless they expand Fenway by 8-10000 seats.

J.Bradley, Porcello, Pedroia...some names to watch who will be available.

 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Get a new front office and sign guys like Lowrie, Chacin, and Lorenzo Cain. 

Lowrie performing so well at this age was completely unpredictable...

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You do that, and you're approaching the luxury tax. They had a $130M payroll in 2016(!!!!!) IIRC the Luxury tax was around 180M in 2017. I don't think those guys were enough anyway. Great. You've gone from 78 to 84 wins. How are you getting the next 8? 

There wasn't anything they could do to get the extra 14 wins other than have a $250M payroll. The rebuild was really the only choice. 

 Neither Lowrie nor Cain were free agents after 2016 either. 

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 Neither Lowrie nor Cain were free agents after 2016 either. 

Classic Hahn playing 3 dimensional chess on a checkers board...they could have added Cain in the middle of 2017 when KC was tanking and convinced him to stay by bringing in Escobar and eventually Shields back.  While they were at it, Moose for third.

Edited March 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[OneDog847]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You do that, and you're approaching the luxury tax. They had a $130M payroll in 2016(!!!!!) IIRC the Luxury tax was around 180M in 2017. I don't think those guys were enough anyway. Great. You've gone from 78 to 84 wins. How are you getting the next 8? 

There wasn't anything they could do to get the extra 14 wins other than have a $250M payroll. The rebuild was really the only choice. 

Laroche retired early and they had other money coming off the books so the payroll would have been lower.

The Brewers didn't have to completely tear down in order to build a winner. It can be done. Just not by Hahn and company.  

[OneDog847]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

 

 

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

None of those guys were free agents after 2016 either. 

 

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Classic Hahn playing 3 dimensional chess on a checkers board...they could have added Cain in the middle of 2017 when KC was tanking and convinced him to stay by bringing in Escobar and eventually Shields back.  While they were at it, Moose for third.

 Cain and Chacin were FA after 2016. 

 

 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Laroche retired early and they had other money coming off the books so the payroll would have been lower.

The Brewers didn't have to completely tear down in order to build a winner. It can be done. Just not by Hahn and company.  

We helped by providing them Guerra, half our bullpen the last 2-3 years, Saladino.

Stearns is savvy. They somehow delve deep to find helpful pieces like Thames (JPN) and Aguilar (buried on CLE death chart) for low or no cost...it’s not like most of their position prospects hit, but they still have managed to piece together the devastating lockdown pen, Moustakas on the cheap, Yelich on the cheap in terms of assets surrendered, Cain at fair market value and lots of starting pitching depth to make up for no traditional TOR guy.

Edited March 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 Neither Lowrie nor Cain were free agents after 2016 either. 

I didn't think so, but I wasn't sure so I said nothing. I've looked stupid a few time lately responding to stuff with old info. 

And also, the Brewers traded pretty much everyone other than Braun around 2013. They were only in a position to add in 2017 because they had already torn it down. Thank you, try again. Even the jankees and Sawx did a mini-rebuild sometime within the last decade. There are exactly zero teams that are good currently that haven't gone through at least a 2-3 year rebuild of some sort. 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[pcq]

Sale might give you five years 20 plus starts and miss a fair amount of time. The rest is market value and why leave the Red Sox? Smart move. 

[Balta1701]

46 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I didn't think so, but I wasn't sure so I said nothing. I've looked stupid a few time lately responding to stuff with old info. 

And also, the Brewers traded pretty much everyone other than Braun around 2013. They were only in a position to add in 2017 because they had already torn it down. Thank you, try again. Even the jankees and Sawx did a mini-rebuild sometime within the last decade. There are exactly zero teams that are good currently that haven't gone through at least a 2-3 year rebuild of some sort. 

At the time I thought we had a legitimate shot starting in 2014 to pull one off in 3 years and we made legitimate progress in 2014 compared to 2013, but then we declared our 72 win team was ready to win right now and was willing to sacrifice 2016 for wins in 2015. It was a terrible decision top to bottom. A complete failure of Rick Hahn and company to understand their own roster, free agency, or the moves they were making 

But in hindsight, even if we hadn't, the guys making player development and selection decisions did such an awful job everywhere else that it really wasn't going to matter what we did, we were going to be in the 60s in wins by 2018-2019. Spend a lot more money and they're still in the 60s in wins and they've got Alex Gordon out in the OF or something like that. Try to do a short rebuild starting in 2014 and by 2017 they're falling back down as Quintana and Eaton break down and as they fail to develop anyone else. In either of these setups they have nothing worth any value to trade and we're looking at a bottom-5 system and a 65 win team in 2019.

Literally, the only version of the last 6 years that gives us a path forward is the one we're on right now. Everything might still turn around with the amount of talent in this group, even if it seems unlikely right now at least the guys exist. Given our organization, this is actually the best case scenario, and it actually could have been far worse. 

[LittleHurt05]

This offseason just keeps getting worse by the day.  Just when I think my interest in the Sox cant get lower, I am proven wrong. 

[SCCWS]

5 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

But it thought there was no way he was re-signing in Boston. All of these free agents down the line are getting signed. I thought options would be plentiful. 

Not sure where you got that notion. 

[SCCWS]

2 hours ago, pcq said:

Sale might give you five years 20 plus starts and miss a fair amount of time. The rest is market value and why leave the Red Sox? Smart move. 

Also he loves their throwback uniforms. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

At the time I thought we had a legitimate shot starting in 2014 to pull one off in 3 years and we made legitimate progress in 2014 compared to 2013, but then we declared our 72 win team was ready to win right now and was willing to sacrifice 2016 for wins in 2015. It was a terrible decision top to bottom. A complete failure of Rick Hahn and company to understand their own roster, free agency, or the moves they were making 

But in hindsight, even if we hadn't, the guys making player development and selection decisions did such an awful job everywhere else that it really wasn't going to matter what we did, we were going to be in the 60s in wins by 2018-2019. Spend a lot more money and they're still in the 60s in wins and they've got Alex Gordon out in the OF or something like that. Try to do a short rebuild starting in 2014 and by 2017 they're falling back down as Quintana and Eaton break down and as they fail to develop anyone else. In either of these setups they have nothing worth any value to trade and we're looking at a bottom-5 system and a 65 win team in 2019.

Literally, the only version of the last 6 years that gives us a path forward is the one we're on right now. Everything might still turn around with the amount of talent in this group, even if it seems unlikely right now at least the guys exist. Given our organization, this is actually the best case scenario, and it actually could have been far worse. 

This is a great post, very scary to think about alternate realities. To think that where they're at currently is a best case scenario, is sobering to say the least. 

[southsider2k5]

 

[SCCWS]

One reason why Sale re-upped w Boston.  Hopefully we are shooting for that kind of organization. 

 Sale was liberated from a Chicago team that never reached the playoffs during his seven seasons and finished above the .500 mark only twice.

“We’re not just trying to win this year,” Sale said. “We’re trying to win next year and the year beyond. Especially in this day and age, when half the league isn’t trying to win anything and we’re trying to win every year, that says a lot. As players, you can’t not respect it.”

 

https://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20190323/sale-says-winning-was-foremost-on-his-mind-as-he-finalized-new-contract