Sox interested in Yolbert Sanchez

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Sox acquired high ceiling guys in their trades, but they were also trading premium talent which allowed them to target more developed prospects that provide less of a trade-off between floor & ceiling than you typically see in the draft.  Moncada was legit a top 2 prospect and had both a high ceiling and high floor.  The same basically applies to Eloy with a little bit less upside.  Lopez, Kopech, & Cease all looked like they had floors of back-end relievers but with TOR potential.  Only Basabe was a true high ceiling, low floor type prospect.

Read the article I posted. If you're really arguing the above guys weren't high ceiling low floor guys idk what to tell you pal.

When your range of outcomes 2 SD either way is 6+ WAR or 0 WAR you're a high risk high reward prospect. That is the definition of a ceiling guy. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Nardiwashere]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Floor vs ceiling in most scouting circles is as follows:

Floor - a guy who doesn't need to improve much to be a back end guy in the mlb now. He doesnt have great stuff - no ++ pitches - but everything he throws is around average and he has good command. His stuff will never really play up enough to be a 3 or more, but his command and arsenal make him a safe bet to be in the league for a while. 

Ceiling - a guy who flashes ++ tools. A pitcher with a ++ pitch paired with a secondary that lacks consistency but has great movement. Command for ceiling guys tend to be the last thing to come, if it comes at all. For the majority of their life they got by on incredible talent, but when they reach top level competition their inconsistencies come to light. Their stuff can look unhittable one day and then he can lose command entirely the next day.

Exactly.. and in 2015, Carson Fulmer was a "stuff" guy who had issues with his command.  It doesn't matter if people thought he could end up in the bullpen if he never put it together.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Much more complicated than that.

 

What you quoted literally affirms my point.

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What you quoted literally affirms my point.

It really doesn't.  If everything as as clear and easy as you make it sound nobody would ever screw up a pick.  Thing is there is an incredible amount of complexity that going into projecting a college hitter, let alone a HS hitter and that the greater data available on college hitters doesn't make it that much less of a guessing game. 

I'd argue personally that trying to draft "high floor" guys is pointless.  It's as much of a guessing game as taking "combine guys".

Edited March 26, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Exactly.. and in 2015, Carson Fulmer was a "stuff" guy who had issues with his command.  It doesn't matter if people thought he could end up in the bullpen if he never put it together.

Guys with command issues are pretty much never high floor guys. Hence why arguing that for fulmer makes zero sense.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It really doesn't.  If everything as as clear and easy as you make it sound nobody would ever screw up a pick.  Thing is there is an incredible amount of complexity that going into projecting a college hitter, let alone a HS hitter and that the greater data available on college hitters doesn't make it that much less of a guessing game. 

I'd argue personally that trying to draft "high floor" guys is pointless.  It's as much of a guessing game as taking "combine guys".

It's not easy. Nothing is easy. I said strike zone command in college DOES NOT correlate to strike zone command in professional baseball. Strike zone command in A ball doesnt even have a direct correlation to strike zone command in MlB. When you get up to AA it gets a little better but having strike zone command in college doesn't mean a whole lot. Hence why its not an indicator for a high floor guy... in fact, the article you linked states it means higher ceiling lower floor which was also my argument for steele walker.

I dont disagree with you entirely but there is certainly statistical evidence that says less production and more tools has a higher bust rate than more production and lesser tools. So based on that, high floor guys can have value to a team that has taken a lot of risks on top level talent (like moncada, kopech, cease and robert.)

Edited March 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's not easy. Nothing is easy. I said strike zone command in college DOES NOT correlate to strike zone command in professional baseball. Strike zone command in A ball doesnt even have a direct correlation to strike zone command in MlB. When you get up to AA it gets a little better but having strike zone command in college doesn't mean a whole lot. Hence why its not an indicator for a high floor guy... in fact, the article you linked states it means higher ceiling lower floor which was also my argument for steele walker.

I dont disagree with you entirely but there is certainly statistical evidence that says less production and more tools has a higher bust rate than more production and lesser tools. So based on that, high floor guys can have value to a team that has taken a lot of risks on top level talent (like moncada, kopech, cease and robert.)

I think we have some common ground here as it's intuitive to think that most low minors hitters are benefiting more from the typical hard throwing no control A ball pitcher than any great command of the strike zone.  For college hitters using metal bats completely screws up the data imo.  I'd be looking carefully at how how any college hitter performed in wooden bat summer league ball.  

I'm curious as all hell to see how Madrigal fairs in AA this year once guys that can find the zone start pounding him and he has to prove he won't get the bat knocked out of his hand.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

14 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think we have some common ground here as it's intuitive to think that most low minors hitters are benefiting more from the typical hard throwing no control A ball pitcher than any great command of the strike zone.  For college hitters using metal bats completely screws up the data imo.  I'd be looking carefully at how how any college hitter performed in wooden bat summer league ball.  

I'm curious as all hell to see how Madrigal fairs in AA this year once guys that can find the zone start pounding him and he has to prove he won't get the bat knocked out of his hand.  

As for you first point - it was even worse when I was in college. I was there pre-bat change and the numbers guys put up were absurd and it was so hard to tell if a smaller guy could actually hit the ball with authority at the next level because they could hit for power with those juiced bats. I even dropped a couple bombs - that's how juiced the bats were.

I think a guy like Madrigal is much safer today than he was 15 years ago - pre-bat change. Madrigal hit the ball with authority with wood and the less juiced metal bats. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[OneDog847]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

Fulmer was simply a bad pick. His ceiling wasn't particularly high due to his small build. He wasn't on the draft board for many teams because it was a laughable pick that high. You seem to be confusing "high ceiling draft pick" with "terrible draft pick".

The disturbing thing is that the Sox spent a ton of time scouting a Vanderbilt Team that had both Carson Fulmer and Walker Buehler in the starting rotation. 

We all know who the Sox thought was the better pitcher...

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, OneDog847 said:

The disturbing thing is that the Sox spent a ton of time scouting a Vanderbilt Team that had both Carson Fulmer and Walker Buehler in the starting rotation. 

We all know who the Sox thought was the better pitcher...

The Sox were far from the only team in baseball that thought he was the better pitcher. Fulmer was much better in college.

Sometimes guys with high floors and what appears to be limited ceilings turn into Superstars - see Jose Altuve. Scouting isn't black and white. 

I also think people should pump their breaks on Walker Buehler. Would I take him over Fulmer today? Obviously. Is he a guaranteed + pitcher going forward? No. Walker has one + ++ pitch (his fastball) and then a whole lot of ???. Will he continue to grow and improve? Possibly, but I am not all in on the Walker Buehler camp like some are. He needs to develop his secondary stuff or he'll be an inconsistent starter going forward whose best year was his rookie year.

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

The disturbing thing is that the Sox spent a ton of time scouting a Vanderbilt Team that had both Carson Fulmer and Walker Buehler in the starting rotation. 

We all know who the Sox thought was the better pitcher...

Considering Buehler was picked 24th, color me unimpressed.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The point is they didnt target developed prospects. Kopech and moncada were both rated highly because of their tools not their production. They both had a lot of development left. That is my point. Moncada wasnt blowing the doors off in the minors.

Moncada put up a wRC+ of over 150 at both High A & AA prior to the trade, so he was in fact blowing the doors off in the minors.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Guys with command issues are pretty much never high floor guys. Hence why arguing that for fulmer makes zero sense.

Fulmer wasn’t a high floor guy, but he wasn’t drafted by Hostetler so it’s not really reflective of our current draft strategy IMO.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Moncada put up a wRC+ of over 150 at both High A & AA prior to the trade, so he was in fact blowing the doors off in the minors.

Pal, read the article. 

Moncada wasn't top 25 in MiLB production yet he was the #1 prospect. He was the definition of a lots of tools, less production, prospect. 

I think when they removed prospect rankings from the system, Moncada dropped somewhere to around 20 or 25 in prospect rankings.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

37 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

The disturbing thing is that the Sox spent a ton of time scouting a Vanderbilt Team that had both Carson Fulmer and Walker Buehler in the starting rotation. 

We all know who the Sox thought was the better pitcher...

Didn’t Buehler have significant health / durability concerns at the time?  Not everything is black and white unless you’re using the benefit of hindsight.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Pal, read the article. Jeezus. 

Moncada wasn't top 25 in MiLB production yet he was the #1 prospect. He was the definition of a lots of tools, less production, prospect. 

I think when they removed prospect rankings from the system, Moncada dropped somewhere to around 20 or 25 in prospect rankings.

I don’t even know what “wasn’t top 25 in MLB production” even means.  He was literally one of the top hitters in both his respective leagues in 2016 as a 21 year old.  If you’re suggesting his elite tools caused him to jump from 25 to 1 in terms of prospect rankings, that still doesn’t suggest he’s a low floor guy.  Like we saw the absolute worst of him last year and he was a 2 win player. A guy who can be league average while striking out 200 times and playing well below his defensive capabilities is the definition of a high floor player.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t even know what “wasn’t top 25 in MLB production” even means.  He was literally one of the top hitters in both his respective leagues in 2016 as a 21 year old.  If you’re suggesting his elite tools caused him to jump from 25 to 1 in terms of prospect rankings, that still doesn’t suggest he’s a low floor guy.  Like we saw the absolute worst of him last year and he was a 2 win player. A guy who can be league average while striking out 200 times and playing well below his defensive capabilities is the definition of a high floor player.

It means when evaluating via KATOH and removing prospect rankings, he fell all the way from 1 to 20. Meaning his ranking was boosted by his tools. Here you good.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-yoan-moncada/

This breaks it down a little so far.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

Here are some actual articles on Yolbert Sanchez.....

 

Quote

 

Cuban Defector SS Yolbert Sanchez Cleared to Sign

 

by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel

January 22, 2019

Sources tell FanGraphs that earlier today, Cuban defector shortstop Yolbert Sanchez was cleared by MLB to sign with clubs starting on February 5. He’s scheduled to hold private workouts in the Dominican Republic later this week. According to Francys Romero, Sanchez and fellow Cuban Jorge Tartabull left Cuba in June. Sanchez resurfaced in the Dominican Republic in the last 3-5 weeks, according to scouts. Very few decision-making evaluators have seen him recently, but that’s expected to change between now and February 5. Sanchez has been scouted in international tournaments (the video embedded below is of Sanchez playing for Industriales in Cuba’s top pro league), so scouts do have some history with him.

Sanchez, and the timing of his free agency, are notable for two reasons. First, he’s an older prospect who will be paid from a team’s international bonus pool, money normally spent on 16-year-old prospects who don’t even play regular pro games until almost a year after signing. Compared to most other prospects acquired this way, Sanchez, who turns 22 in March, is less risky and should have a quicker timeline to the big leagues. Second, the Baltimore Orioles have by far the most international pool money left of any team, as they’ve spent little of their initial $5.5 million bonus pool, and might have over $6 million in space after trading for additional pool space. We’re unsure of the precise amounts, but believe the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies to have the most pool space remaining behind Baltimore, though all three are thought to have less than $3 million in space, leaving the Orioles with a potentially significant amount of breathing room between themselves and the nearest competition. Sanchez is seen by scouts as a $2-4 million type prospect.

 

After missing out on the last consensus seven-figure prospects on the market in current Rays prospect RHP Sandy Gaston and current Marlins prospect CF Victor Victor Mesa, who last showcased and then signed in October, some speculated the Orioles would be forced to sign several prospects in the $100,000-to-$500,000 per player bonus range in order to use their full pool space, which they already began doing before the new front office regime was put in place.

The Orioles had to be hoping a player like Sanchez would come along before this signing period closes on June 15, 2019, allowing new GM Mike Elias to add a premium individual talent to the farm system. Sources speculated to us that clubs that have not yet verbally allocated most of their 2019 signing pool can offer Sanchez millions and hope he waits a few more months to sign, though this may be a means of trying to keep Baltimore honest and force them to use most of their pool to sign Sanchez, rather than offering an amount that’s slightly more than the club with the second-highest remaining 2018 international bonus pool.

Sanchez draws mixed reviews for his offensive potential, but scouts agree he has above average-to-plus running, fielding, and throwing tools, and he will stick at shortstop. The Orioles took two shortstops with their Rule 5 Draft picks in December and the position is seen as an organizational weakness at the upper levels for the rebuilding club.

 

 

Quote

 

Orioles, Rangers, Astros Have Recently Scouted Yolbert Sanchez

By Steve Adams | February 5, 2019 at 7:22pm CDT

 

As of today, 21-year-old Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez is formally cleared to sign with Major League clubs. Sanchez, who recently left Cuba and has since been living and working out in the Dominican Republic, emerged as the most touted talent on the international free-agent market in late January when it was first reported that he’d be cleared to sign on this day.

At present, the Orioles and their near-$6MM signing pool are the runaway leaders in terms of pool money available. The Dodgers’ $1.4MM remaining pool is the next largest, though teams are still allowed to trade international funds between now and the close of the current signing period on June 15.

According to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, the Orioles recently sent new general manager Mike Elias and a contingent of evaluators to the Dominican Republic to scout the newly available shortstop. The O’s aren’t the only ones who’ve seen him, however, as the report also indicates that Rangers president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and Astros president of baseball ops Jeff Luhnow were both in the Dominican Republic recently to scout Sanchez in person. Houston can’t offer Sanchez more than $300K until the next signing period begins on July 2, though Texas can trade for additional funds on top of the $850K the organization currently has in its pool.

The point regarding the next signing period is a key distinction, particularly given that Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen tweeted today that Sanchez’s camp has told interested teams that one club has already put forth an offer of $2MM if he’s willing to wait until the 2019-20 signing period begins. That could be a negotiation tactic, though it’s common for teams to have verbal agreements with international free agents in place well in advance of the signing period’s commencement, and Sanchez is surely a know commodity to other clubs throughout the league.

Sanchez isn’t necessarily considered an elite prospect, but he’ll turn 22 in March and, as such, could be closer to the Majors than most amateurs available in international free agency. Longenhagen and colleague Kiley McDaniel wrote at the time they reported Sanchez’s impending availability to MLB clubs that his glove, speed and throwing arm all draw above-average to plus ratings from scouts. His offensive upside, however, is not as universally agreed upon.

Sanchez appeared in 128 appeared across parts of three seasons in the Cuban National Series before leaving the island in 2018 and batted a combined .297/.338/.345 through 435 plate appearances. Sanchez homered just once in that span, although the majority of his plate appearances came as a teenager and he struck out at just an 8.7 percent clip.

 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t even know what “wasn’t top 25 in MLB production” even means.  He was literally one of the top hitters in both his respective leagues in 2016 as a 21 year old.  If you’re suggesting his elite tools caused him to jump from 25 to 1 in terms of prospect rankings, that still doesn’t suggest he’s a low floor guy.  Like we saw the absolute worst of him last year and he was a 2 win player. A guy who can be league average while striking out 200 times and playing well below his defensive capabilities is the definition of a high floor player.

I posted a link describing the immense amount of risk moncada had attached to him for a #1 prospect - compared to others.

[yesterday333]

Somebody tell me when they are done arguing ceiling and floor and we can go back to talking about Yolbert...

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

25 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

Somebody tell me when they are done arguing ceiling and floor and we can go back to talking about Yolbert...

I never understood this angle. It's a white Sox and baseball forum. The only people who view these things as arguments are those with closed minds. 

I post thoughts in hope of reciprocating equally valid and reasonable points from others in rebuttal. That is how you learn new things. It's not an argument, it's a discussion with counter viewpoints. Nothing more.

The only people who view things like this on the internet as arguments are those who get angry and worked up by a random strangers comments, and those who have no desire to learn something new... I check in for the views of those who disagree with me. Not to have my thoughts and opinions reaffirmed by everyone. Nothing is gained from that.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[yesterday333]

29 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I never understood this angle. It's a white Sox and baseball forum. The only people who view these things as arguments are those with closed minds. 

I post thoughts in hope of reciprocating equally valid and reasonable points from others in rebuttal. That is how you learn new things. It's not an argument, it's a discussion with counter viewpoints. Nothing more.

The only people who view things like this on the internet as arguments are those who get angry and worked up by a random strangers comments, and those who have no desire to learn something new... I check in for the views of those who disagree with me. Not to have my thoughts and opinions reaffirmed by everyone. Nothing is gained from that.

Sorry... I just found your "discussion" boring. "i'm right" "how could you say that, I'm right" "No this is what I mean which make me right" "That's so illogical, this is how you should see it, I'm right" in a thread topic that is about a player we might be trying to get, not what you guys are "discussing." I wanted to discuss with another poster why he isn't a fan of signing him, and I disagreed with him, but my post got lost in your "discussion"

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

Sorry... I just found your "discussion" boring. "i'm right" "how could you say that, I'm right" "No this is what I mean which make me right" "That's so illogical, this is how you should see it, I'm right" in a thread topic that is about a player we might be trying to get, not what you guys are "discussing." I wanted to discuss with another poster why he isn't a fan of signing him, and I disagreed with him, but my post got lost in your "discussion"

it didnt get lost. He still got the notification. He chose to not respond on his own accord - not because of another discussion in the thread. 

Also, the discussion included sources and outside citations that were interesting reads as well. It was not an "I'm right youre wrong" discussion. Some may have done that, but others gave rational and educated view points as to why the had that opinion. 

Frequently, just as in real life, a topic can evolve from it's initial starting point. The point of entry was related to Yolbert but the conversation evolved - that's typically how conversations in real life and internet forums go.

[yesterday333]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

it didnt get lost. He still got the notification. He chose to not respond on his own accord - not because of another discussion in the thread. 

Also, the discussion included sources and outside citations that were interesting reads as well. It was not an "I'm right youre wrong" discussion. Some may have done that, but others gave rational and educated view points as to why the had that opinion. 

Frequently, just as in real life, a topic can evolve from it's initial starting point. The point of entry was related to Yolbert but the conversation evolved - that's typically how conversations in real life and internet forums go.

You realize when a thread topic breaks down like this, people quit coming to it because they don't wanna read post after post of people calling each "discussing" (it showed all the signs of arguing, like calling each other illogical and questioning others sanity, but you said its not arguing) Thus the original topic gets drowned and people quit caring to visit the topic. 

The thread title is "Sox interested in Yolbert Sanchez." Something nice about message boards is you can start a new thread to discuss a new topic. So if you wanted to evolve your discussion to something else, you can start a new topic while people who still wanted to talk about the other topic can still do that.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

You realize when a thread topic breaks down like this, people quit coming to it because they don't wanna read post after post of people calling each "discussing" (it showed all the signs of arguing, like calling each other illogical and questioning others sanity, but you said its not arguing) Thus the original topic gets drowned and people quit caring to visit the topic. 

The thread title is "Sox interested in Yolbert Sanchez." Something nice about message boards is you can start a new thread to discuss a new topic. So if you wanted to evolve your discussion to something else, you can start a new topic while people who still wanted to talk about the other topic can still do that.

Why are you discussing something like this in a thread about Yolbert Sanchez? Couldnt you start another thread to voice your opinion about threads going in different directions?