Sox interested in Yolbert Sanchez

[Chicago White Sox]

This argument is pretty ridiculous.  He are all the top 3 round picks under Hostetler (Fulmer was not his pick FYI):

• 2016-1: Zack Collins (in between)
• 2016-1: Zack Burdi (floor)
• 2016-2: Alex Hansen (ceiling)
• 2016-3: Alex Call (floor)
• 2017-1: Jake Burger (floor)
• 2017-2: Gavin Sheets (floor)
• 2017-3: Luis Gonzalez (floor)
• 2018-1: Nick Madrigal (floor)
• 2018-2: Steele Walker (floor)
• 2018-3: Konner Pilkington (floor)

Out of 10 picks under Hostetler, there have been 8 clear cut “floor” picks and only one true “ceiling” pick.  I’ll say Collins falls in between while he was high risk as a catching prospect, there was belief at the time his fallback would be as a passable 1B.  Either way, it’s pretty clear we’ve gone with a safe draft strategy under Hostetler.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This argument is pretty ridiculous.  He are all the top 3 round picks under Hostetler (Fulmer was not his pick FYI):

• 2016-1: Zack Collins (in between)
• 2016-1: Zack Burdi (floor)
• 2016-2: Alex Hansen (ceiling)
• 2016-3: Alex Call (floor)
• 2017-1: Jake Burger (floor)
• 2017-2: Gavin Sheets (floor)
• 2017-3: Luis Gonzalez (floor)
• 2018-1: Nick Madrigal (floor)
• 2018-2: Steele Walker (floor)
• 2018-3: Konner Pilkington (floor)

Out of 10 picks under Hostetler, there have been 8 clear cut “floor” picks and only one true “ceiling” pick.  I’ll say Collins falls in between while he was high risk as a catching prospect, there was belief at the time his fallback would be as a passable 1B.  Either way, it’s pretty clear we’ve gone with a safe draft strategy under Hostetler.

I agree and after all those "floor picks" not a single one of them really looks like a great "floor" pick in hindsight.  That's not good.  Granted it's early for all the post '16 picks.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

While I guess I see your frustration of a guy who cant hit, I think getting a top 10 int prospect with some really strong tools as the head of this class isn't a bad thing. I am interested to see how the whole class plays out. 

Yolmer Sanchez was putting up better numbers in the majors than this kid was in Cuba at a similar age. Somehow I don't find that a good thing. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I agree and after all those "floor picks" not a single one of them really looks like a great "floor" pick in hindsight.  That's not good.  Granted it's early for all the post '16 picks.

Seconded, with Collins leaning toward floor to me. The only ceiling pick they made was Hansen and he almost hit before completely losing it last year. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[SoxAce]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This argument is pretty ridiculous.  He are all the top 3 round picks under Hostetler (Fulmer was not his pick FYI):

• 2016-1: Zack Collins (in between)
• 2016-1: Zack Burdi (floor)
• 2016-2: Alex Hansen (ceiling)
• 2016-3: Alex Call (floor)
• 2017-1: Jake Burger (floor)
• 2017-2: Gavin Sheets (floor)
• 2017-3: Luis Gonzalez (floor)
• 2018-1: Nick Madrigal (floor)
• 2018-2: Steele Walker (floor)
• 2018-3: Konner Pilkington (floor)

Out of 10 picks under Hostetler, there have been 8 clear cut “floor” picks and only one true “ceiling” pick.  I’ll say Collins falls in between while he was high risk as a catching prospect, there was belief at the time his fallback would be as a passable 1B.  Either way, it’s pretty clear we’ve gone with a safe draft strategy under Hostetler.

Preach. Also falls in line with the more OBP oriented approach for the hitters which is what I mentioned earlier. 

"So was bmags. Funny. But I'll say their philosophy has definitely changed under Hostetler focusing more on OBP oriented hitters (Collins, Burger, Walker, etc). High floor guys."

 

Edited March 26, 2019 by SoxAce

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Carson Fulmer was drafted 8 overall.  What pitcher drafted that high doesn’t have a floor of ending up in the bullpen?

Indeed, college pitchers drafted in the top ten do have a high floor.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

I agree and after all those "floor picks" not a single one of them really looks like a great "floor" pick in hindsight.  That's not good.  Granted it's early for all the post '16 picks.

Luis Gonzalez looks like a great pick, although it seems like he had a bit more upside than many originally thought.  Burdi looked like a decent floor pick floor prior to his injury, as he appeared to have top 5 reliever upside (and given the going rate for relievers, there may have been some arbitrage value there).  Still too early to write-off Burger and Sheets, but the initial returns don’t look great, especially when you consider they’re bat first guys.  Call seems like a wasted pick as he a tweener with a 4th OF type ceiling.   What’s funny is a year ago, Hansen would have looked like the best pick of the entire 2016 & 2017 classes and he was the only true “ceiling” guy we took.

[Nardiwashere]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yolmer Sanchez was putting up better numbers in the majors than this kid was in Cuba at a similar age. Somehow I don't find that a good thing. 

Here's my take... If the Cuban has no chance to be anything more than a poor man's Yolmer Sanchez, why would he command so much money and be a top 10 guy in his class?  Seems like a very inefficient way to spend the allotted money.  One would think there's more potential here than people are assuming.

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Indeed, college pitchers drafted in the top ten do have a high floor.

Not with TINSSAAPP.  As we've seen.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This argument is pretty ridiculous.  He are all the top 3 round picks under Hostetler (Fulmer was not his pick FYI):

• 2016-1: Zack Collins (in between)
• 2016-1: Zack Burdi (floor)
• 2016-2: Alex Hansen (ceiling)
• 2016-3: Alex Call (floor)
• 2017-1: Jake Burger (floor)
• 2017-2: Gavin Sheets (floor)
• 2017-3: Luis Gonzalez (floor)
• 2018-1: Nick Madrigal (floor)
• 2018-2: Steele Walker (floor)
• 2018-3: Konner Pilkington (floor)

Out of 10 picks under Hostetler, there have been 8 clear cut “floor” picks and only one true “ceiling” pick.  I’ll say Collins falls in between while he was high risk as a catching prospect, there was belief at the time his fallback would be as a passable 1B.  Either way, it’s pretty clear we’ve gone with a safe draft strategy under Hostetler.

Based on this, floor to you means college mostly. Theres nothing about Steele Walker that says high floor. 

[yesterday333]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yolmer Sanchez was putting up better numbers in the majors than this kid was in Cuba at a similar age. Somehow I don't find that a good thing. 

Ok but if the scouting community seems to think of him as a top 10 player in the class there has to be more to it than that. Either that or its not a good intl class. Are you just upset at the kind of player rather than the approach? Because I think the approach is what should be done... Get a top guy for about half your pool and then fill it out with a bunch of lower guys. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Nardiwashere said:

Here's my take... If the Cuban has no chance to be anything more than a poor man's Yolmer Sanchez, why would he command so much money and be a top 10 guy in his class?  Seems like a very inefficient way to spend the allotted money.  One would think there's more potential here than people are assuming.

Because if you got a really good chance at Jose Iglesias that player under your control for 6 years is pretty useful. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Preach. Also falls in line with the more OBP oriented approach for the hitters.

Yes, "preach" because you appear to be incapable of adding anything  of substance to these discussions but for passive aggressive vibes at some and a lot of thataboy to others. 

The Sox targeted high ceiling guys for the rebuild. I've already posted an article clearly citing and showing this... with comparisons to other rebuilds. That was my point when discussing acquiring this guy via Intl free agency.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, "preach" because you appear to be incapable of adding anything to these discussions but for passive aggressive vibes at some and a lot of thataboy to others. 

The Sox targeted high ceiling guys for the rebuild. I've already posted an article clearly citing and showing this... with comparisons to other rebuilds. 

physician, heal thyself.  You are the poster child for overly aggressive takes and binary thinking.

[Y2Jimmy0]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yolmer Sanchez was putting up better numbers in the majors than this kid was in Cuba at a similar age. Somehow I don't find that a good thing. 

Offensively. I think Yolbert is a better defender with a better arm and is faster though. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Based on this, floor to you means college mostly. Theres nothing about Steele Walker that says high floor. 

On the offensive side, college guys with good on-base skills or a polished hit tool but without elite power or speed and don’t play a premium position are what I’d deem a high floor pick.  Unless you think Walker can play CF, he’s the defition of a high floor guy.  There were definitely HS guys or pure college athletes we could have taken in the 2nd round that provided far more upside.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

On the offensive side, college guys with good on-base skills or a polished hit tool but without elite power or speed and don’t play a premium position are what I’d deem a high floor pick.  Unless you think Walker can play CF, he’s the defition of a high floor guy.  There were definitely HS guys or pure college athletes we could have taken in the 2nd round that provided far more upside.

The change in philosophy has been obvious but hasn't clearly shown any better results.  Not that any team hits on even half their first round picks but the change seemed to occur sometime around the time Hawkins was entering non prospect status in late 2016.  You can see they also have attempted to get high best high upside guys in the system (I like that "combine guy" term someone used yesterday) via Int. Signings and trade (Rutherford obvious example).

Overall this remains a bottom 1/3 drafting and development club and probably bottom 1/5.  Hard to consistently win until that changes.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

physician, heal thyself.  You are the poster child for overly aggressive takes and binary thinking.

Nothing binary about my views here. And aggressive takes? Nah, I just dont like people who add nothing. I post to the post not the poster. Many struggle with that in the internet world. 

I come to places like this for educated and rational opposing views because I'm not scared to learn something new or evolve. I am actually willing to change my mind on things - amazing really. 

[Nardiwashere]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

Indeed, college pitchers drafted in the top ten do have a high floor.

Ok... so without hindsight... Carson Fulmer's best case scenario/comp at the time he was drafted was who, Carlos Martinez?  Is that a low ceiling pick?  

Just because he turned out to be bad, doesn't mean he never had a ceiling.  I agree that Burdi was a floor guy in the 1st round... But when I think of SPs who are floor guys, I imagine a pitcher with lesser stuff that has a shot at the rotation but will never be very good.

[frogsplash31]

Besides Madrigal, the Sox are weak up the middle in the minors. Seems like a solid get if they can land hin.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

On the offensive side, college guys with good on-base skills or a polished hit tool but without elite power or speed and don’t play a premium position are what I’d deem a high floor pick.  Unless you think Walker can play CF, he’s the defition of a high floor guy.  There were definitely HS guys or pure college athletes we could have taken in the 2nd round that provided far more upside.

Walker had more swing and miss in his game than most at his level and he is a very good athlete.

I think we greatly disagree on what a floor guy is. On base skills in college do not translate to great on base skills in MiLB. There's actually not even great correlation between strike zone command in A ball and zone command in MLB. 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, "preach" because you appear to be incapable of adding anything  of substance to these discussions but for passive aggressive vibes at some and a lot of thataboy to others. 

The Sox targeted high ceiling guys for the rebuild. I've already posted an article clearly citing and showing this... with comparisons to other rebuilds. That was my point when discussing acquiring this guy via Intl free agency.

The Sox acquired high ceiling guys in their trades, but they were also trading premium talent which allowed them to target more developed prospects that provide less of a trade-off between floor & ceiling than you typically see in the draft.  Moncada was legit a top 2 prospect and had both a high ceiling and high floor.  The same basically applies to Eloy with a little bit less upside.  Lopez, Kopech, & Cease all looked like they had floors of back-end relievers but with TOR potential.  Only Basabe was a true high ceiling, low floor type prospect.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Ok... so without hindsight... Carson Fulmer's best case scenario/comp at the time he was drafted was who, Carlos Martinez?  Is that a low ceiling pick?  

Just because he turned out to be bad, doesn't mean he never had a ceiling.  I agree that Burdi was a floor guy in the 1st round... But when I think of SPs who are floor guys, I imagine a pitcher with lesser stuff that has a shot at the rotation but will never be very good.

Floor vs ceiling in most scouting circles is as follows:

Floor - a guy who doesn't need to improve much to be a back end guy in the mlb now. He doesnt have great stuff - no ++ pitches - but everything he throws is around average and he has good command. His stuff will never really play up enough to be a 3 or more, but his command and arsenal make him a safe bet to be in the league for a while. 

Ceiling - a guy who flashes ++ tools. A pitcher with a ++ pitch paired with a secondary that lacks consistency but has great movement. Command for ceiling guys tend to be the last thing to come, if it comes at all. For the majority of their life they got by on incredible talent, but when they reach top level competition their inconsistencies come to light. Their stuff can look unhittable one day and then he can lose command entirely the next day.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Sox acquired high ceiling guys in their trades, but they were also trading premium talent which allowed them to target more developed prospects that provide less of a trade-off between floor & ceiling than you typically see in the draft.  Moncada was legit a top 2 prospect and had both a high ceiling and high floor.  The same basically applies to Eloy with a little bit less upside.  Lopez, Kopech, & Cease all looked like they had floors of back-end relievers but with TOR potential.  Only Basabe was a true high ceiling, low floor type prospect.

The point is they didnt target developed prospects. Kopech and moncada were both rated highly because of their tools not their production. They both had a lot of development left. That is my point. Moncada wasnt blowing the doors off in the minors.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Walker had more swing and miss in his game than most at his level and he is a very good athlete.

I think we greatly disagree on what a floor guy is. On base skills in college do not translate to great on base skills in MiLB. There's actually not even great correlation between strike zone command in A ball and zone command in MLB. 

Much more complicated than that.

Quote

Based on these data, the ability to hit for doubles power is the most important predictor of a player’s making the majors or earning a few WAR. However, it’s interesting to see that walk rate and single rate both gain a good amount of steam at the high end of the spectrum. This implies that hitters who get on base often in college tend to have higher upsides — but possibly lower floors — than hitters who don’t.