Fernando Tatis Jr. thread

[caulfield12]

Kershaw and other Dodgers' t.v. guy talking about how crushed Tatis, Jr., was when he discovered that White Sox had traded him in 2016...said that he cried and cried all day long and didn't understand why they didn't want him.

Ouch.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Kershaw and other Dodgers' t.v. guy talking about how crushed Tatis, Jr., was when he discovered that White Sox had traded him in 2016...said that he cried and cried all day long and didn't understand why they didn't want him.

Ouch.

If it holds, will his current 429 BABIP be a modern day record over a full season (say 500+ PA)? That’s really something. Even Avi during his magical 4.2 fWAR season was only at 392 BABIP.

[kitekrazy]

15 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Kershaw and other Dodgers' t.v. guy talking about how crushed Tatis, Jr., was when he discovered that White Sox had traded him in 2016...said that he cried and cried all day long and didn't understand why they didn't want him.

Ouch.

Probably because there's really no pressure on players in this organization.

[Chisoxfn]

I was actually listening to the Dodgers game and heard that exact comment.  20 year on pass for a ~6 WAR season. It is what it is...but this is one of those deals that could end up going down as one of the worst trades in baseball history.  

[Dominikk85]

Btw I still think you can't really criticise the sox for this. Sure never was a great trade but tatis was seen as a prospect but he wasn't seen as a top30 in that July 2 group and he hadn't played a game.  Mlb.com didn't rank him in the teams top20 either.

Here is an article about 15 july2 and tatis isn't even mentioned.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/scouting-reports-for-2015s-top-30-international-prospects-for-july-2/

Sure you could say why give up a lottery ticket for a bum pitcher but this happens all the time and most lotto tickets never become anything.

What happened was that tatis made an extreme improvement his first season, not just perfomance but tools too. Longenhagen said nobody saw this coming.

 

 

Edited August 3, 2019 by [email protected]

[Moan4Yoan]

Fernando Tatis Jr. clobbered a two-run homer -- his 20th round-tripper of the season -- to power the Padres to a 9-4 victory over the Mariners on Tuesday.

Tatis Jr. drilled a no-doubter to left field off Mariners lefty Wade LeBlanc to extend the Padres’ lead to five runs in the fifth inning. It was his lone hit in four at-bats. He also walked and scored an insurance run in the ninth. The 20-year-old sensation has gone deep six times in 22 games since the All-Star break and is on pace to become only the fifth hitter since 1999 to record a 20-homer, 20-steal rookie campaign. He owns a sparkling .322/.383/.592 triple-slash line with 56 runs scored, 20 home runs, 48 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 339 plate appearances. This is what a franchise cornerstone looks like in 2019.

 

[ron883]

On 8/2/2019 at 3:01 PM, Chisoxfn said:

I was actually listening to the Dodgers game and heard that exact comment.  20 year on pass for a ~6 WAR season. It is what it is...but this is one of those deals that could end up going down as one of the worst trades in baseball history.  

At this rate I think it is hands down the worst trade of all time. This kid looks like a young ARod

[caulfield12]

He's actually in kind of a rut now, I think a big part of it's because the Padres are 100% out of the wild card race.

While he has a consecutive hit streak going, they're usually just one hit per game, granted, there's 2-3 homers mixed in there.

His K rate is 8% and strikeout rate has been hovering around 30% for the last couple of months.

 

If you just looked at it superficially, you could see that Jimenez has 26 xb hits in 286 at-bats and Tatis has 37 in 339 at-bats...or that Tatis' error totals have crept up quite a bit in the last six weeks 1) due to forcing throws he shouldn't make, to go for a DP instead of taking out at first, for example, 2) Hosmer's having a bad year defensively, 3) he's waiting too long to make throws to show off his arm or going a little too much 3/4's sometimes and the ball will sail.  75% of the mistakes are throwing, rather than fielding.

The 975 ops doesn't seem sustainable due to the BABIP, but he gets SO many hits on balls in the infield...similar to those seasons Eaton and Avi had for the Sox.

I think he's made 5-6 outs in the last couple of weeks that were balls that were blistered right at fielders, it all evens out.

That said, he's also made two amazing plays...one was a ball with the infield at medium depth and he cut down the runner at the plate with a laser that he couldn't have replicated if he was given 100 tries to do it again.

Last night, there was a wild pitch and the ball got away from Narvaez...you could just see that he was determined to get to third from the start, and he REALLY accelerated between 2nd and 3rd, it's pretty incredible for a guy of his size.  

Of course, he also had a game where he got thrown out two consecutive innings at 3B, but they were errors of aggressiveness, and Andy Green wasn't too upset.  I don't think I've ever seen a player since the statcast era began that has been involved in more instant replay decisions on the basepaths.

So far, the only two comps for hitting this many homers from the SS position at age 20 are A-Rod and Carlos Correa.  And he's accumulated a 3.5 fWAR in just 77 games and headed for at least 20/20 and maybe 25/25 if he decides to steal more bases.    Like most Latin Americans, he's probably most vulnerable to sliders low and off the plate, but he's also gone through stretches where almost every hit was to RF because they didn't want him to get extended and pull the ball for homer or double.

 

[caulfield12]

Just hit his 21st homer tonight off Kikuchi.

Alex Rodriguez hit 36 in his age 20-21 (turned 21 during the year) rookie season, in 146 games played.

Carlos Correa hit 22 in his age 20-21 season (same as A-Rod, hit 21 during year), in 99 games played.

 

Tatis has 21 in just 78 games played, and he's not turning 21 until next January.

If you prorated that out to 146, he would be at 39 homers.

With 49 games remaining for the Padres, and most he can get to is 127 games played, having missed five weeks with the hamstring.

That would give him a projected 34 if he keeps up the current pace.

 

Those are the only shortstops in MLB history to hit 20+ homers in their age 20/21 season.

Edited August 7, 2019 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Just hit his 21st homer tonight off Kikuchi.

Alex Rodriguez hit 36 in his age 20-21 (turned 21 during the year) rookie season, in 146 games played.

Carlos Correa hit 22 in his age 20-21 season (same as A-Rod, hit 21 during year), in 99 games played.

 

Tatis has 21 in just 78 games played, and he's not turning 21 until next January.

If you prorated that out to 146, he would be at 39 homers.

With 49 games remaining for the Padres, and most he can get to is 127 games played, having missed five weeks with the hamstring.

That would give him a projected 34 if he keeps up the current pace.

 

Those are the only shortstops in MLB history to hit 20+ homers in their age 20/21 season.

No one answered my post above. His BABIP has dropped a bit but not by much. Still holding at 418. Would that be a modern day record or close to one?

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No one answered my post above. His BABIP has dropped a bit but not by much. Still holding at 418. Would that be a modern day record or close to one?

https://community.fangraphs.com/the-ten-highest-babips-since-1945/

This gives you some comps, trying to find a newer one.

If he ends up playing only 125 or so games, he might not qualify for full season results statistically. It will be close, since he always hits leadoff.

 

This year another rookie, Reynolds (Pirates) at 412, Moncada and Leury top five.

JD Martinez .369 in 2018

Avi Garcia two years ago at .392 in 2017

DJ LeMahieu .388

Odubel Herrera .387

Lorenzo Cain .380

Chris Johnson, Atl, .401

Dexter Fowler, .391 in 2012

Adrian Gonzalez, .380 in 2011

 

Edited August 8, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

22nd homer follows one of his best defensive plays of the year (took an outside high velocity fastball from J.Gray and hit it out down the RF line), did an entertaining Rickey Henderson impression with the celebration...on defense, fully extended to his left, got up quickly and threw a two hopper as quickly as he could to Hosmer who somehow snagged it. 

Had another single to RF for an RBI, should have had his 15th steal (now 5 caught stealing) but he couldn't hold onto the bag with the "oven mitt" and then McMahon kicked his forearm off the bag (non-renewable play, see Ron Gant vs. Kent Hrbek in World Series.)

Sixth leadoff homer (new club record, passed Wil Venable), fastest to 100 hits for any player in franchise history (Johnny Grubb).

22 homers in 79 games, beat Carlos Correa by 20.

Current pace=35.367

 

Nomar Garciaparra owns the all-time major league record for homers by a rookie shortstop with 36 in 1997.

27 is the NL rookie SS record, Trevor Story in 2016 (passed Troy Tulowitzki).

Edited August 9, 2019 by caulfield12

[kitekrazy]

On 8/6/2019 at 10:43 PM, ron883 said:

At this rate I think it is hands down the worst trade of all time. This kid looks like a young ARod

Nope. Not close to Ruth being sold to the Yankees.   I just thought the trade was odd since the Sox needed a bat more than a pitcher. 

[caulfield12]

Watch the highlights at MLB.com, three Gold Glove-level defensive plays in one game...one was a double play with Urias.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/rockies-vs-padres/2019/08/08/566330#game_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=566330

Edited August 9, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, kitekrazy said:

Nope. Not close to Ruth being sold to the Yankees.   I just thought the trade was odd since the Sox needed a bat more than a pitcher. 

https://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/10-worst-trades-in-baseball-history10.htm

Surprised Broglio/Brock was only 4th.

[Moan4Yoan]

19 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No one answered my post above. His BABIP has dropped a bit but not by much. Still holding at 418. Would that be a modern day record or close to one?

I’m pretty sure Tatis Jr. just said that no one cares about your BABIP statistics.  He’s a young phenom and star.  It’s over, my friend.  No stat is going to make this trade look any better.  Stop trying so hard.  This could potentially shape up to be one of the worst trades in MLB history.  He has better numbers at 20 years of age than the “young” Sox players we are all excited about that are 3 to 6 years older, lol.  He is better than Moncada, Anderson, and Eloy right now.  The Shields trade should be etched on Hahn’s gravestone.  What a clown.  See below for further evidence.  Maybe we can sign Tatis Jr. when he becomes a free agent at age 26 by offering him an incentive-based contract in years 8 and 9 and a chance to earn more money than other teams’ guaranteed contract offers?  ?

 

Fernando Tatis Jr. finished 2-for-5 with a home run, two RBI and two runs scored in a 9-3 win over the Rockies on Thursday.

Tatis opened the Padres' half of the first inning with a leadoff homer, shooting a Jon Gray pitch just over the wall in right field. An inning later he plated a run with an RBI single, and in the sixth he reached on a throwing error and scored on a Wil Myers double. The 20-year-old now has 22 homers and 14 steals to go with 51 RBI and 60 runs scored overall, batting a healthy .326/.387/.607 across 79 games. The NL Rookie of the Year race between he and Pete Alonso is shaping up for a very interesting final few months.

Edited August 9, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I’m pretty sure Tatis Jr. just said that no one cares about your BABIP statistics.  He’s a young phenom and star.  It’s over, my friend.  No stat is going to make this trade look any better.  Stop trying so hard.  This could potentially shape up to be one of the worst trades in MLB history.  He has better numbers at 20 years of age than the “young” Sox players we are all excited about that are 3 to 6 years older, lol.  He is better than Moncada, Anderson, and Eloy right now.  The Shields trade should be etched on Hahn’s gravestone.  What a clown.  See below for further evidence.  Maybe we can sign Tatis Jr. when he becomes a free agent at age 26 by offering him an incentive-based contract in years 8 and 9 and a chance to earn more money than other teams’ guaranteed contract offers?  ?

 

Fernando Tatis Jr. finished 2-for-5 with a home run, two RBI and two runs scored in a 9-3 win over the Rockies on Thursday.

Tatis opened the Padres' half of the first inning with a leadoff homer, shooting a Jon Gray pitch just over the wall in right field. An inning later he plated a run with an RBI single, and in the sixth he reached on a throwing error and scored on a Wil Myers double. The 20-year-old now has 22 homers and 14 steals to go with 51 RBI and 60 runs scored overall, batting a healthy .326/.387/.607 across 79 games. The NL Rookie of the Year race between he and Pete Alonso is shaping up for a very interesting final few months.

No question he’s a star but do you believe he will maintain a 400+ BABIP next year?

[fathom]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No question he’s a star but do you believe he will maintain a 400+ BABIP next year?

He reminds me of someone like Yoan who hits the ball hard, uses the whole field and is so fast that he’s always going to have a high BABIP

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 hours ago, fathom said:

He reminds me of someone like Yoan who hits the ball hard, uses the whole field and is so fast that he’s always going to have a high BABIP

350 sure but 400+?

[caulfield12]

He has a much better natural swing to the opposite field than Moncada.

The main disadvantage (to the oppo approach) is any ball pulled to the left side...especially deep SS...gives him a decent opportunity to beat it out.

Usually he hits liners to the opposite side and pulls grounders to the left hand side...but I’d guess 65-75% of those balls to the right side are very hard contact...95 mph and above.

Edited August 10, 2019 by caulfield12

[WilliamTell]

On 8/7/2019 at 12:43 AM, ron883 said:

At this rate I think it is hands down the worst trade of all time. This kid looks like a young ARod

This was Judy talked about on MLB network. Just depressing. 

[caulfield12]

Two steals, two walks, 2 RBI double and another excellent defensive play...

https://www.mlb.com/video/tatis-jr-s-smooth-stop

All three plays last night were better

 

https://www.mlb.com/video/tatis-jr-s-great-all-around-game

This was just one game...five highlights

https://www.mlb.com/video/tatis-jr-on-leadoff-hr-defense

 

Edited August 10, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/fernando-tatis-jr-is-on-another-level-entirely

"He's the most exciting young player I've seen since Ken Griffey Jr.," venerated baseball journalist Peter Gammons said a few Sundays ago during batting practice at the MLB Futures Game in Cleveland, nodding toward Junior—Griffey, not Tatis—behind the cage as he spoke.

Tatis has yet to even play 100 games in the bigs and already the chorus is nearing standing-room only.

"He's a top-10 player in the major leagues right now," says Skip Schumaker, an 11-year veteran who helped the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series and now serves as the Padres' first base coach. "He's all-world in defense, he's all-world in running the bases, he's all-world at the plate.

"He's a difference-maker when you put him in the lineup on both sides of the ball."

The kid is all of 20 years old. Already, he has joined Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Correa as the only three shortstops to have 18 or more homers in their age-20 seasons. Last month, he became the youngest player to belt leadoff home runs in consecutive games. He projects to finish the season batting .320/.383/.600 with 34 homers and 64 extra-base hits despite missing five weeks from late April to early June with a strained hamstring.

Despite standing 6'3 1/2", he plays shortstop with the agility of an Olympic gymnast, tumbling and somersaulting his way to sizzling worm-burners and one-hoppers clearly out of his reach and then finishing the plays with rockets to first that Statcast clocks as fast as 94 mph.

He is everything you've heard about Vladimir Guerrero Jr...times 10. That is no knock on Vladdy, whose arrival this spring was greeted with breathless anticipation and who just happens to be good buddies with Tatis.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2848713-fernando-tatis-jr-is-stealing-the-show

 

29 for last 109 (.266), and just 1 for his last 14, down from .339 to .315

Finally has hit a wall.  Still over 400 babip, .408 coming into last night (0/2 + 3 k’s).  29% k.

 

[caulfield12]

Injury prone!

Third injury in a year...fractured wrist, hamstring, now on 10 day IL for back spasms from an awkward swing, probably just being really conservative with nothing to play for this season.

But staying on the field, wrote a long time ago that was the biggest concern with how aggressively he plays and how he pushes himself to do things not even he should attempt.

[kitekrazy]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Injury prone!

Third injury in a year...fractured wrist, hamstring, now on 10 day IL for back spasms from an awkward swing, probably just being really conservative with nothing to play for this season.

But staying on the field, wrote a long time ago that was the biggest concern with how aggressively he plays and how he pushes himself to do things not even he should attempt.

and they traded him.....sounds like the perfect White Sox