winninguglyin83 Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 final thoughts from Baseball Prospectus on the wonderfully satisfying 2003 season, plus a recommendation that the Sox go after I-Rod: Chicago White Sox C-Ya, Wouldn't Wanna B-Ya: Some people might think that, being critics and all, we take some sort of schadenfreudean pleasure whenever a manager gets fired, but that isn't really the case. Evaluating managers is, in fact, among the most difficult elements of our job; we're forced to either overemphasize the importance of factors like lineup order and bunting strategy that are easy to evaluate objectively, or to close our eyes and walk through the forest of intangibles, hoping not to bump into any conifers along the way. Jerry Manuel was fired on Monday after six years captaining the White Sox. By today's standards, that's a long tenure; Manuel's teams achieved a 500-471 record over the period, with one division title, one third place effort--and four second place finishes. There is perhaps no better way for a manager to seal his fate than to consistently finish in second place. With a very poor team, there are more fundamental problems to address, and the manager is usually given a pardon; winning pennants, on the other hand, speaks for itself, even when it shouldn't. But when his team finishes second, a manager's leadership is invariably called into question. The principal reason that the Sox have consistently finished in second is because they've consistently been the second best team. Management's strategy has been to make one or two significant off-season moves that improve the team's chances, but do not place the Sox in a position to dominate a division that, at least since the demise of the Ramirez-Thome Indians, could easily be dominated. Some of those moves (Jose Valentin and Bartolo Colon) have worked out fine on their own merits, others (David Wells and Royce Clayton) haven't, but with each 80something win season, it hardly seems to matter. This winter, finally, management may be forced to pick a direction. Bartolo Colon's contract is up; though he didn't have a spectacular season, it's hard to think of the Sox competing without him or a pitcher of similar quality. Magglio Ordonez has one more year on his contract. So does Esteban Loaiza. Carlos Lee is arbitration-eligible and is likely to command more than he should because of his good counting numbers. Frank Thomas had a nice, rebound season, but he'll be 36 next year. The point is that this hand of cards is too expensive, both in terms of salary and opportunity cost, to play passively. The White Sox need either to throw caution to the wind and take a stab at someone like Ivan Rodriguez with a short-team deal (in addition to resigning Colon), or to liquidate Lee and Loaiza for value while they can. Either approach is defensible, and either is superior to continuing to hold the middle ground. Jerry Manuel, in part because of his personality, and in part because of factors entirely unrelated to it, was a symbol of the White Sox' passivity. If his firing indicates that the Pale Hoes are ready to take a more definitive course of action--and the selection of the new manager should be dictated by just what course that is--then we're all for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 My God somebody writing is actually making sense. Seems like pretty good analysis. Second place is the 1st Loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesox61382 Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 That is a very good article. It would be interesting to see what the Sox could get for Lee and/or Loaiza. I like Lee, but unless he finds the plate disipline he had in 2002 he will never be a great player, and the 6+M/yr he will probably get through arbitration seems a little steep for his production. There is still the hope that this years power increase and ability to get his average up is a preview of better things to come, but you have to look at it both ways. Maybe that is as high as Lee goes. For years we have talked about potential for Lee, and most years we turn into Cubs fans and say wait for next year. I am on the fence with Lee. I like him, but if the Sox can get a good deal in return for him then I wouldn't be against trading him either(just hope he doesn't finally put it all together). Loaiza is also an interesting possibility. He is getting an increase of 3M this up coming year(assuming the Sox pick up his option). While 3.5M/yr is very cheap for his production last year there is no guarantee that he will duplicate. In fact, I would say the odds are in favor of him regressing a good amount in 2004. VERY rarely do 31 year old pitchers with career ERA's around 5 all of a sudden see the light and drasticly turn things around. His trade value is probably as high as it will ever be. With almost every team in baseball looking for cheap quality pitching, Loaiza could net the Sox a heafty ruturn. You can think of it as selling a stock at its highest point when you are pretty sure that the stock will go down in the near future. If the Sox got a good deal with players that address MULTIPLE other weaknesses, than I think a Loaiza trade would be worth it, especially if he regresses drasticly in 2004. Still you have to look at it the other way as well. 3.5M/yr for a pitcher coming off a season in which he posted a sub-3 ERA is hard to give up. IRod is a pipedream, especially if the article suggests BOTH Colon and IRod. Stick with Olivo. I think you will see improvements. Even IRod didn't start off his career with guns blazing. 1st year(91) .264 AVG .630 OPS, 2nd year(92) .260 AVG .660 OPS, 3rd year(93) .273 AVG .727 OPS, and it was his 4th year that he started to breakout. So give Olivo some time to develop. This is going to be a VERY active offseason for the Sox. With the number of FAs, arbitration eliegible players, big salaries tied up in players, and a team with a good amount of hole there will most likely be a lot of moves(mostly trades) and you could see a very different Sox team in 2004, which might be good(if they fix a couple of holes and put a team that can contend on the field) or bad(if they deceide to semi-rebuild). At this point it is all speculation, because one big trade could answer a lot of questions. I don't envy KW, because he is going to have his hands full with a limited budget to attempt to make improvements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted October 9, 2003 Author Share Posted October 9, 2003 let's get the playoffs and world series over, find out who the manager is going to be and also find out if management is going to bag it -- or GO FOR IT. I thought they made an excellent point about how the Sox settled for second place. One thing that was glossed over -- the failure of so many young Sox pitchers to come through. If we would have gotten anything out of Ginter, Rauch, West, Parque, Wells, Fogg and the others who were supposed to be carrying us by now ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Trade Lee while the getting is good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted October 9, 2003 Author Share Posted October 9, 2003 not opposed to trading CLee. but if you do, who plays left field? Rowand with Reed in center? Rowand with Harris in center? Everett with Rowand in center? Borchard is not ready to contribute -- and may never be. Not opposed to trading Lee if the Sox can get a decent shortstop. doubt we would get much more than one player -- or perhaps an OK player and a prospect. other teams will have the questions about Caballo the Sox have -- low walk totals, inconsistent defense, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Hudler Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 If the Sox pay Carl Everett more than Carlos Lee, they are dumber than I ever could have imagined.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted October 10, 2003 Share Posted October 10, 2003 I - Rod here would be interesting apparently his agent wants him to ply at 1st or 3rd next year as well as Catcher to increase his value. Looks like he had a great relationship with his teammates at da Marlind. But there's no way we can afford him. Also saw that da Giants r cutting $10 million in payroll, so Cruz Jr., Felix Rodriguez and J.T Snow and even Ponson r likely to be wearing different uniforms in 2004. Any1 interested in these guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted October 10, 2003 Author Share Posted October 10, 2003 lots of guys will be out there of interest. What matters is THE PRICE. Snow doesn't have much left in the tank, in my opinion. Ponson will be pricey for a guy who has never put together a complete dominating season. Cruz is a chronic underachiever. Don't know enough about Frank Rodriguez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 10, 2003 Share Posted October 10, 2003 Stupid question but is ANY team going to be INCREASING payroll this year? Could this free agent market be cheaper than last year? The only teams I hear that are talking about spending money are Baltimore and San Diego. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesox61382 Posted October 10, 2003 Share Posted October 10, 2003 "Stupid question but is ANY team going to be INCREASING payroll this year? Could this free agent market be cheaper than last year? The only teams I hear that are talking about spending money are Baltimore and San Diego." That is an interesting question. All I keep reading and hearing about is how a most teams are either going to cut payroll or remain about the same. You might see the big 3: Boston, NNY, and LA slightly increase payroll, but I don't see any big increases from those 3. Teams like the NYM, Philly, and Cubs might add a little payroll, but once agian nothing big. Baltimore and San Diego appear to be the only organizations that could see a fairly drastic increase in payroll, and with all the potential big name players looking for increases things don't add up. I really think you might be able to get some guys at bargain prices, especially second-tier players. I think salaries are beginning to level off after about a 5-year span of inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSteve Posted October 10, 2003 Share Posted October 10, 2003 ...Cruz is a chronic underachiever... I think if he gets in the right situation, he'll be fine. He was batting behind Barry for a little. I think if he has only little pressure, like he'd have here, he'd be a great pickup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted October 10, 2003 Author Share Posted October 10, 2003 guess I can't shake the sight of those two bone-headed fielding plays he made against the Marlins. And I wonder why the Mariners, Blue Jays and now Giants have all given up on him. Cruz isn't what the Sox need. The Sox need a center fielder who can really go get the ball and a shortstop who understands the value of getting on base, not swinging for the fences. I agree there should be plenty of bargains out there. We got one in Loaiza. Red Sox got one in Ortiz. Picked up another one in Mueller. They're out there. Just got to have the luck -- and scouts -- to find the right pieces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted October 10, 2003 Share Posted October 10, 2003 lots of guys will be out there of interest. What matters is THE PRICE. Snow doesn't have much left in the tank, in my opinion. Ponson will be pricey for a guy who has never put together a complete dominating season. Cruz is a chronic underachiever. Don't know enough about Frank Rodriguez Frank Rodriguez??? I think it's Felix Rodriguez whon were talking about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted October 10, 2003 Share Posted October 10, 2003 If the Sox pay Carl Everett more than Carlos Lee, they are dumber than I ever could have imagined.... I couldn't agree more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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