Fangraphs Top 30 White Sox Prospects

[NorthSideSox72]

2 hours ago, yesterday333 said:

I don't think that is true at all. I think with having Futuresox, we have a group of people who are experts on our system. These lists, while done by well informed experienced opinions, don't have the background or complete understanding that Futuresox has. It is easier for us to see where they are off on their opinions for us. We also take into consideration other lists and peoples opinion and can point out where they differ from the rest of the scouting community. When everybody else loves Cease FGs isn't high on him and we can point to other educated opinions on why we think they are wrong. There are some people who question this lists and the peoples credentials, most of us just look at it as another piece to the puzzle.

While I appreciate the respect for FutureSox, let's be real here. FS gets people to games live, talks to scouts, talks to players and coaches, etc., and that's very good as blogs go. Better than most. But Kiley and Eric are both guys who scouted for MLB clubs, also see a lot of games in person, and have similar contacts. It is probably true FS probably has more total combined knowledge specific to the Sox system, but it is also true that Kiley and Eric have much more professional experience with evaluating talent in general. The best bet is to read both and take them for what they are.

I have some serious disagreements with this list too, but it isn't because I think Kiley and Eric are just "writers". I think they have some biases (like ALL of us) and don't have time to get super-deep on any one system to get some of the nuanced info.

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I respect the writers, but I have been adamant that their evaluation of Cease has been stubborn for a couple years. 

Yeah, I mean they’ve spoken at length why they are consistently the low ones on The Cease archetype. So while they may be wrong about him specifically, it’s at least a consistent viewpoint that they’ve been able to back up in the past. It’s less about him than it is about hard throwers with TJ that require projection on command/control. And it’s generally been “hey we think these guys are relievers way way more often than they are TOR starters, specifically more often than the rest of he industry acknowledges”

[Eminor3rd]

Just now, NorthSideSox72 said:

 The best bet is to read both and take them for what they are.

This is, I think, the key takeaway. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah, I mean they’ve spoken at length why they are consistently the low ones on The Cease archetype. So while they may be wrong about him specifically, it’s at least a consistent viewpoint that they’ve been able to back up in the past. It’s less about him than it is about hard throwers with TJ that require projection on command/control. And it’s generally been “hey we think these guys are relievers way way more often than they are TOR starters, specifically more often than the rest of he industry acknowledges”

Yes but the problem with their Cease assessment is their question mark of him changes every year because he had disproved another.

The control but not command thing? Come on. One of their prior concerns of Cease was his control. When he stopped walking people it became command even though he has clearly shown an improvement in the area - which is all you ask of a prospect.

Another: they questioned the results he had based on his age because his injuries held him back. So he goes and dominates AA as a slightly younger player. They move on from that.

Durability and the ability to pitch an entire season was a prior doubt. He did it, so they moved on from that.

Now they are discussing his stuff? He has a 6-7 grade fastball, with a 6 grade quality secondary and a league average 3rd pitch. That is just as much as a guy like Sale entered the league with and having two ++ pitches is more than at least half the starters in the game today. To question his stuff is just questioning to question.

Scouts are notoriously stubborn because their opinions need to be concrete as their decisions typically lead to FINAL decisions but they arent scouting for a team anymore and they dont have to stand by their opinion regardless or results anymore.

They have questioned 5 things about cease and he disproved 4 of them on the field. He has adapted and grown and shown an ability to adjust. These are qualities of a big league arm. For much of the scouting community, cease is a top 25 prospect. For them, he's a potential long reliever. They are just too far gone with their cease bias and they won't relinquish it until he now disproves them at the mlb level and that shouldnt be how it is. They no longer work for a team which means they no longer need to be as stubborn. Evaluate the kid properly. 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah, I mean they’ve spoken at length why they are consistently the low ones on The Cease archetype. So while they may be wrong about him specifically, it’s at least a consistent viewpoint that they’ve been able to back up in the past. It’s less about him than it is about hard throwers with TJ that require projection on command/control. And it’s generally been “hey we think these guys are relievers way way more often than they are TOR starters, specifically more often than the rest of he industry acknowledges”

Also I feel I presented my disagreements logically and in a way that wasnt stating mine was superior - it was simply my view. 

The Adolfo arm grade and Cease grade were my only big disagreements and I feel I formulated that view respectfully and reasonably - supporting it with evidence. Adolfo can't go from the best arm in the minor leagues to a 50 FV arm when no one has seen him throw post TJ and plenty of pitchers bounce back fully from TJ.

I am of the "read them all and use them all as a tool" camp. I tend to give them more respect and credit than the majority of others because I understand how meticulous their process is.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[oldsox]

They have Bryce Bush in RF.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

23 minutes ago, oldsox said:

They have Bryce Bush in RF.

That's not the first time I've seen Bush listed as an outfielder. He's supposed to be pretty raw with the glove. 

[ChiSoxJon]

6 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

That's not the first time I've seen Bush listed as an outfielder. He's supposed to be pretty raw with the glove. 

Looked solid in ST

[Dominikk85]

16 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

While I appreciate the respect for FutureSox, let's be real here. FS gets people to games live, talks to scouts, talks to players and coaches, etc., and that's very good as blogs go. Better than most. But Kiley and Eric are both guys who scouted for MLB clubs, also see a lot of games in person, and have similar contacts. It is probably true FS probably has more total combined knowledge specific to the Sox system, but it is also true that Kiley and Eric have much more professional experience with evaluating talent in general. The best bet is to read both and take them for what they are.

I have some serious disagreements with this list too, but it isn't because I think Kiley and Eric are just "writers". I think they have some biases (like ALL of us) and don't have time to get super-deep on any one system to get some of the nuanced info.

I agree. The FS guys Know more about the sox prospect but what they lack is comparison to other teams prospects. The value the real scouts and guys that travel a lot like eric and kiley have is that they have seen 1000s of guys so they rank it better. The FS have a lot of specific knowledge but I'm not sure they can really say what is a 50 hit tool or a 60 arm if they see it. They also might be a little too positive on some guys because they are obviously also fans albeit they try to be objective.

[OneDog847]

Fangraphs write up was very sobering. The Sox system clearly lacks depth and will no longer be a top 10 system once Jimenez is off the list in a couple months. 

Also, where are all of our international guys? A legit farm system should have a good amount of high upside young international players coming through the pipeline. 

[bmags]

The lack of youth added during a time when we were in penalty box in international was a poor choice.

[Harry Chappas]

The fear is that this front office has no history of succeeding in what they are setting out to do and the early results are not impressive thus when we see something like this it make us all feel that we are in for a miserable next 10 years so instead of realizing that we try to tell ourselves those that have failed miserably will now succeed and those telling us that they may not are wrong.  It is the only way we can stay on as fans. 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

The fear is that this front office has no history of succeeding in what they are setting out to do and the early results are not impressive thus when we see something like this it make us all feel that we are in for a miserable next 10 years so instead of realizing that we try to tell ourselves those that have failed miserably will now succeed and those telling us that they may not are wrong.  It is the only way we can stay on as fans. 

Pretty much. Though it can all change if just one or two guys comes out of nowhere in a positive way this year.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

Pretty much. Though it can all change if just one or two guys comes out of nowhere in a positive way this year.

They have a lot of these guys too. 

Also, no way they move out of the top 10 system rankings with Eloys promotion. They will still have 6 top 100ish guys, and they have a lot of guys in the back end that are young and have a chance to really jump. Time will tell.

[OneDog847]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

They have a lot of these guys too. 

Also, no way they move out of the top 10 system rankings with Eloys promotion. They will still have 6 top 100ish guys, and they have a lot of guys in the back end that are young and have a chance to really jump. Time will tell.

Depends on who you ask I suppose. Keith Law doesn't even have them in the top 10 right now with Eloy included. 

The Sox really really need Kopech, Cease, Robert, and Madrigal to all hit. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

Depends on who you ask I suppose. Keith Law doesn't even have them in the top 10 right now with Eloy included. 

The Sox really really need Kopech, Cease, Robert, and Madrigal to all hit. 

No, not really.

[Jake]

I think they're clearly too low on Kopech and Cease and probably too high on Madrigal. There are a number of guys in the 45/50 FV that it's easy to see climbing up these kinds of lists soon.

[Boopa1219]

14 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

Fangraphs write up was very sobering. The Sox system clearly lacks depth and will no longer be a top 10 system once Jimenez is off the list in a couple months. 

Also, where are all of our international guys? A legit farm system should have a good amount of high upside young international players coming through the pipeline. 

Yeah, it is severely top heavy. After you get by Madrigal and Robert, you're going to find a lot of bullpen guys and utility types. 

They really need to hit on their first two draft picks as they shouldn't be picking that high again anytime soon. 

[Dominikk85]

The biggest issue is really that everyone got hurt or took long to develope. Sure the sox system is not as strong anymore as it was a yes ago but considering they graduated a ton of guys already it is still plenty strong. Imo you need to look at prospects plus young major leaguers, not just prospects and there the sox are still around the top. I mean which team can graduate 4-5 top100 guys and will still have like 6 left after this year? 

Just look at the cubs system after all their graduations and trades.

 

But problem is the young major leaguers all took quite a bit and many prospects got hurt. They don't have a Soto,acuna, Hoskins, Torres that became a 4 win player immediately.

If giolito and moncada hit right away, kopech stayed healthy and Roberts played full seasons the sox situation would look totally different.

They just need guys to step up, at least moncada and giolito had a good start, hopefully they can keep it up.

Edited April 4, 2019 by [email protected]

[Chicago White Sox]

Here’s a big beef I have with Fangraphs’ rating.  Look at their 2018 updated rankings and the compare them to 2019:

• Jimenez: 65 => 60
• Madrigal: 60 => 55
• Collins: 50 => 45
• Basabe: 50 => 45
• Adolfo: 50 => 45
• Burdi: 50 => 40
• Hansen: 50 => 40

What exactly did Jimenez, Madrigal, Basabe, & Adolfo do to drop a grade?  Does Burdi’s injury really warrant a two grade drop?  I totally get Collins’ drop and I can understand Hansen’s two grade drop as well, but the rest of these are nonsensical to me.  I mean, they rated all of Basabe’s tools the same or better and still dropped him a grade.  

To me, it just seems they have skepticism of our player development (maybe after Moncada’s underperformance last year) and penalized the system across the board.

[TomPickle]

On 4/2/2019 at 10:36 AM, TomPickle said:

Didn't Robert have the best sprint speed in the Fall League last year? Not sure why his speed is only a 60. Unless speed is taking into account base running ability too? I've never really been sure.

Seems like an 80 grade run tool to me.

[bmags]

On 4/4/2019 at 7:01 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

Here’s a big beef I have with Fangraphs’ rating.  Look at their 2018 updated rankings and the compare them to 2019:

• Jimenez: 65 => 60
• Madrigal: 60 => 55
• Collins: 50 => 45
• Basabe: 50 => 45
• Adolfo: 50 => 45
• Burdi: 50 => 40
• Hansen: 50 => 40

What exactly did Jimenez, Madrigal, Basabe, & Adolfo do to drop a grade?  Does Burdi’s injury really warrant a two grade drop?  I totally get Collins’ drop and I can understand Hansen’s two grade drop as well, but the rest of these are nonsensical to me.  I mean, they rated all of Basabe’s tools the same or better and still dropped him a grade.  

To me, it just seems they have skepticism of our player development (maybe after Moncada’s underperformance last year) and penalized the system across the board.

They docked Jimenez because they said they viewed him as almost certainly to be a DH and his ongoing injuries with his body type.

They docked madrigal after an inperson and a belief his power wouldn't play up as much as they hoped. I'm guessing the others was all injury based.

Burdi basically lost his slider since TJS, which was the pitch that caused them to rank him so highly in the first place I believe.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, TomPickle said:

Seems like an 80 grade run tool to me.

31.3 feet per second is fucking absurd. That's faster than Buxton.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

They docked Jimenez because they said they viewed him as almost certainly to be a DH and his ongoing injuries with his body type.

They docked madrigal after an inperson and a belief his power wouldn't play up as much as they hoped. I'm guessing the others was all injury based.

Burdi basically lost his slider since TJS, which was the pitch that caused them to rank him so highly in the first place I believe.

I think Madrigal probably moves back up 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, TomPickle said:

Seems like an 80 grade run tool to me.

So I guess they assume 1 second to get out of the box so his home to first time was 3.87.  Damn