April 10 Gamethread 1:10pm first pitch

[greg775]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

In fact, less wins is better for next year’s draft position.

I'm thinking most fans won't be singing this tune this season. If the Sox management feels this way again this season, I just hope we have embarrassingly low attendance figures all season. Please, fans, stay away!! Go to one game if you have to (like I will try to do just to see the Cell and have a corned beef sandwich) but please please keep that stadium empty all season. I mean yes Eloy, Moncada and Timmy and Abreu are all stars but nobody else is worth your money. Not one pitcher on our staff is worth paying money to see, just those four players I mentioned. That's scary really.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I'm thinking most fans won't be singing this tune this season. If the Sox management feels this way again this season, I just hope we have embarrassingly low attendance figures all season. Please, fans, stay away!! Go to one game if you have to (like I will try to do just to see the Cell and have a corned beef sandwich) but please please keep that stadium empty all season. I mean yes Eloy, Moncada and Timmy and Abreu are all stars but nobody else is worth your money. Not one pitcher on our staff is worth paying money to see, just those four players I mentioned. That's scary really.

This is basically the 2013/2014 Cubs. Wins don’t matter this year and they likely won’t matter until 2021 because I am assuming next year will be another 85-90 loss season. And that’s ok as long as we see progress from Moncada, TA, Eloy, and eventually Collins and Cease when they are called up this summer as well as the kids on the farm. I’m also hopeful Rodon, Herrerra, and Colome turn in a solid first half of the season so we can trade them in July to further reinforce the farm. Those are the things I’m looking forward to in addition to the June draft. I just don’t see why wins/losses matter this year especially when everyone knew this team was nowhere near contending particularly after missing out on the two superstars in free agency last winter.

[soxfan49]

1 hour ago, Goober said:

Heblows got an xbh!?

Yeah you should've seen the excitement on your mom's face 

Edited April 11, 2019 by soxfan49

[Thad Bosley]

9 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This is basically the 2013/2014 Cubs. Wins don’t matter this year and they likely won’t matter until 2021 because I am assuming next year will be another 85-90 loss season. And that’s ok as long as we see progress from Moncada, TA, Eloy, and eventually Collins and Cease when they are called up this summer as well as the kids on the farm. I’m also hopeful Rodon, Herrerra, and Colome turn in a solid first half of the season so we can trade them in July to further reinforce the farm. Those are the things I’m looking forward to in addition to the June draft. I just don’t see why wins/losses matter this year especially when everyone knew this team was nowhere near contending particularly after missing out on the two superstars in free agency last winter.

Em, no.  This is NOT the 2013/2014 Cubs.  The 2013/2014 Cubs were owned by Tom Ricketts with a one/two punch of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer making things happen in the front office, on their way to four consecutive playoff appearances, including a World Series title.  All of that in just seven years on the job.

Meanwhile, our Sox, conversely, are owned by Jerry Reinsdorf and backed by the front office dynamic duo of Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn.  Heading into their 19th year together now as the 1-2-3 brain trust atop the organization, they have all of two postseason appearances to speak of during the nearly two decades, and none at all in over a decade now.  

Surely you can see the competency gap between the two organizations. 

[Balta1701]

10 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This is basically the 2013/2014 Cubs. Wins don’t matter this year and they likely won’t matter until 2021 because I am assuming next year will be another 85-90 loss season. And that’s ok as long as we see progress from Moncada, TA, Eloy, and eventually Collins and Cease when they are called up this summer as well as the kids on the farm. I’m also hopeful Rodon, Herrerra, and Colome turn in a solid first half of the season so we can trade them in July to further reinforce the farm. Those are the things I’m looking forward to in addition to the June draft. I just don’t see why wins/losses matter this year especially when everyone knew this team was nowhere near contending particularly after missing out on the two superstars in free agency last winter.

The years you've chosen are interesting and instructive, and they aren't the same.

For the Cubs in 2013, it looks like they had only 1 player on the roster who would be a difference-maker 2 years later, that's Rizzo. They acquired Arrieta midseason, he only pitched 50 innings for them. They didn't have any other pieces of their strong starting rotation present, and still had 1 or 2 older pieces like Samardzija that they hadn't yet moved away. That team won 66 games.

In 2014, a number of their pieces had arrived. Arrieta, Hamels, Hendricks, Baez, Soler all made appearances. Not everyone was a difference-maker, Baez was young and bad, and they had other stuff on the way (Bryant), but importantly - they were seeing positive signs from several of those guys and it led to a 7 game improvement. Things were starting to look up.

The White Sox are like the 2014 Cubs in 1 way - a lot of the young guys they're relying on are now here and called up. They're not all here, but for the Cubs, they were legitimately seeing progress. If we're like the 2014 Cubs, we should be seeing progress. If we're like the 2013 Cubs, then we have a handful of scraps that we'll eventually need to trade, and we will need to basically replace everything on the roster before we're in place to do any damage. 

So the question is - are the guys who are here trending upwards?

[SCCWS]

11 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This is basically the 2013/2014 Cubs. Wins don’t matter this year and they likely won’t matter until 2021 because I am assuming next year will be another 85-90 loss season. And that’s ok as long as we see progress from Moncada, TA, Eloy, and eventually Collins and Cease when they are called up this summer as well as the kids on the farm. I’m also hopeful Rodon, Herrerra, and Colome turn in a solid first half of the season so we can trade them in July to further reinforce the farm. Those are the things I’m looking forward to in addition to the June draft. I just don’t see why wins/losses matter this year especially when everyone knew this team was nowhere near contending particularly after missing out on the two superstars in free agency last winter.

When I look at this rebuild, I would say that Rodon, Lopez, Gio, Anderson, Eloy and Moncada are all key elements of it. Phase 1

Phase 2 to me is Cease, Kopech, Burdi, Collins, Robert, Madrigal. 

Ironically that is 6 pitchers and 6 positional players. One or two others will develop in the minors and become part of the core.  A few of the above will fizzle out.  So half of our rebuild pieces , to me, are already on the MLB roster. If this year is worst than last, the rebuild may be longers than we think.  Right now, the positional players are off to a good start but the pitchers are struggling. Really early but when we get to September , we need to see at least most of the 6 having solid years. 

Trading Rodon only sets the overall rebuild back unless you hit gold w the return.  Especially since Gio, Lopez, Cease and Kopech are all RH. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The years you've chosen are interesting and instructive, and they aren't the same.

For the Cubs in 2013, it looks like they had only 1 player on the roster who would be a difference-maker 2 years later, that's Rizzo. They acquired Arrieta midseason, he only pitched 50 innings for them. They didn't have any other pieces of their strong starting rotation present, and still had 1 or 2 older pieces like Samardzija that they hadn't yet moved away. That team won 66 games.

In 2014, a number of their pieces had arrived. Arrieta, Hamels, Hendricks, Baez, Soler all made appearances. Not everyone was a difference-maker, Baez was young and bad, and they had other stuff on the way (Bryant), but importantly - they were seeing positive signs from several of those guys and it led to a 7 game improvement. Things were starting to look up.

The White Sox are like the 2014 Cubs in 1 way - a lot of the young guys they're relying on are now here and called up. They're not all here, but for the Cubs, they were legitimately seeing progress. If we're like the 2014 Cubs, we should be seeing progress. If we're like the 2013 Cubs, then we have a handful of scraps that we'll eventually need to trade, and we will need to basically replace everything on the roster before we're in place to do any damage. 

So the question is - are the guys who are here trending upwards?

This is exactly what we are seeing no? TA and Moncada have taken huge steps forward. Eloy is getting his first taste in MLB and holding his own. We should see promotions for Collins and Cease come July/August. Veterans like Rodon, Colome, and Herrera are shaping up to be nice trade pieces in July.

Like I said, the only guy that has truly disappointed me to this juncture is Lopez. The rest of the roster is a combination of aging vets, AAAA players, and wild card former prospects (I’ll put Gio in this category). Sounds a lot like the 2013/2014 Cubs to me.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, SCCWS said:

When I look at this rebuild, I would say that Rodon, Lopez, Gio, Anderson, Eloy and Moncada are all key elements of it. Phase 1

Phase 2 to me is Cease, Kopech, Burdi, Collins, Robert, Madrigal. 

Ironically that is 6 pitchers and 6 positional players. One or two others will develop in the minors and become part of the core.  A few of the above will fizzle out.  So half of our rebuild pieces , to me, are already on the MLB roster. If this year is worst than last, the rebuild may be longers than we think.  Right now, the positional players are off to a good start but the pitchers are struggling. Really early but when we get to September , we need to see at least most of the 6 having solid years. 

Trading Rodon only sets the overall rebuild back unless you hit gold w the return.  Especially since Gio, Lopez, Cease and Kopech are all RH. 

How do you figure half the rebuild pieces are on the MLB roster? I’d say 1/4 and of those I only consider TA, Moncada, Eloy, and Lopez as vital elements (Kopech too once he returns from injury and Gio is a wild card). The second wave won’t arrive until later this season or next season. The third wave of prospects in 2021 and beyond. 2021 is the year in which their contention window needs to start. I don’t see it opening any sooner and I’ve said this since last summer before the Kopech injury and last offseason. With this in mind, Rodon should absolutely be on the trading block this summer if he starts out strong and they can get a haul for him - two top 100 prospects and another low level org guy. 

Edited April 11, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Bob Sacamano]

16 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

How do you figure half the rebuild pieces are on the MLB roster? I’d say 1/4 and of those I only consider TA, Moncada, Eloy, and Lopez as vital elements (Kopech too once he returns from injury and Gio is a wild card). The second wave won’t arrive until later this season or next season. The third wave of prospects in 2021 and beyond. 2021 is the year in which their contention window needs to start. I don’t see it opening any sooner and I’ve said this since last summer before the Kopech injury and last offseason. With this in mind, Rodon should absolutely be on the trading block this summer if he starts out strong and they can get a haul for him - two top 100 prospects and another low level org guy. 

Maybe not this year for Rodon. Let him build a track record first (if he has a great , healthy 2019) and depending on how they are doing mid-way through the season next year, I think about extending him. If he's not extended at that point, deal him for one last haul.

Edited April 11, 2019 by soxfan2014

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Maybe not this year for Rodon. Let him build a track record first (if he has a great , healthy 2019) and depending on how they are doing mid-way through the season next year, I think about extending him. If he's not extended at that point, deal him for one last haul.

For a number of reasons, I don’t see an extension as a realistic option with Rodon. IMO they should trade him if he has a strong first half to this season to maximize the return while he is still healthy and under team control for another 2+ seasons. 

Edited April 11, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Bob Sacamano]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

For a number of reasons, I don’t see an extension as a realistic option with Rodon. IMO they should trade him if he has a strong first half to this season to maximize the return while he is still healthy and under team control for another 2+ seasons. 

Yeah if he builds any sort of track record, he probably will be hard to extend (Boras client). I don't actually think they will extend him either if that is the case. I just am not sure you're going to get a lot for him trading him this year unless he just straight dominates up until the trade deadline.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Yeah if he builds any sort of track record, he probably will be hard to extend (Boras client). I don't actually think they will extend him either if that is the case. I just am not sure you're going to get a lot for him trading him this year unless he just straight dominates up until the trade deadline.

He’s definitely had injury issues but if he stays healthy the first half of this season and performs well, there will definitely be interested suitors. I’d say his track record is as good or better than someone like Jeff S when the Cubs traded him and Jason H in July 2014 for a haul.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

He’s definitely had injury issues but if he stays healthy the first half of this season and performs well, there will definitely be interested suitors. I’d say his track record is as good or better than someone like Jeff S when the Cubs traded him and Jason H in July 2014 for a haul.

HIs record is absolutely not as good as Jeff Samardzija's. In the 2.5 seasons prior to his trade, Samardzija was a 2.7 fWAR pitcher, a 3 fWAR pitcher, and midseason he was on path to a 4.5 fWAR season. Rodon had one 2.8 fWAR season but that was 3 years ago, since then his injury prevented him from being worth anything. He hasn't matched Samardzija's reliability and he hasn't matched Samardzija's peak (which was right when he was traded). Rodon would need to put up a sub-3 ERA in >100 innings in the first half of this year to be anywhere close to that value - he wouldn't have the reliabilty of Jeff S at that point, but he'd also have another year of control. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

HIs record is absolutely not as good as Jeff Samardzija's. In the 2.5 seasons prior to his trade, Samardzija was a 2.7 fWAR pitcher, a 3 fWAR pitcher, and midseason he was on path to a 4.5 fWAR season. Rodon had one 2.8 fWAR season but that was 3 years ago, since then his injury prevented him from being worth anything. He hasn't matched Samardzija's reliability and he hasn't matched Samardzija's peak (which was right when he was traded). Rodon would need to put up a sub-3 ERA in >100 innings in the first half of this year to be anywhere close to that value - he wouldn't have the reliabilty of Jeff S at that point, but he'd also have another year of control. 

Shark at the time of the trade had accumulated 8.4 fWAR. Rodon is at 6.8 currently. He’s under team control for an extra year and 3 years younger than Shark was at the time of trade. No doubt in my mind that if Rodon produces a healthy and highly productive first half to this season that his trade value will be equal to Shark’s was at that time at a minimum.

[ChiSox59]

16 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

If Giolito becomes a solid #5 that’d be a bonus. He was always considered a huge wild card. So yeah, Lopez is the only guy that I’m upset about in terms of their start to the season. Moncada and TA look awesome. Eloy is holding his own. Rodon has been very good. The only tradable assets in the pen come July, Colome and Herrerra, have been great. The farm system has gotten off to a good start. I’d take this start over an 8-3 start with all the vets tearing up while Moncada, TA, Rodon, and Eloy looking awful. Wins don’t matter this season, they never did. In fact, less wins is better for next year’s draft position.

At some point Moncada, TA and Rodon need to learn how to win games at the major league level.  Taking a step forward this season was important.  Veterans playing well to potentially get something of future value was also important.  

Moncada has overall looked good, though he didn't have a great homestand.  TA has been awesome.  Rodon has been meh.  The rest has been garbage outside of a couple innings from Herrera.  Young pensmen look overmatched.  Lopez looks like he doesn't belong.  Gio has been mostly 2018 version of Gio that isn't a major league caliber SP.

I know you're mostly a blindly positive guy, and that is great.  I am definitely far on the optimistic side as far as Sox fans go, but to say you've been encouraged with this start asinine.  This teams sucks balls and we have very little in the way of close to the majors impact talent waiting in the wings.  

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Shark at the time of the trade had accumulated 8.4 fWAR. Rodon is at 6.8 currently. He’s under team control for an extra year and 3 years younger than Shark was at the time of trade. No doubt in my mind that if Rodon produces a healthy and highly productive first half to this season that his trade value will be equal to Shark’s was at that time at a minimum.

Yeah but the Cubs also had Samardzija work out of the bullpen for >2 seasons and that's where some of the team control went, that suppresses his numbers even more than Rodon's injury. Samardzija had accumulated 8 fWAR in the 2.5 seasons prior to the trade. Rodon has put up that 6.8 in the equivalent of 3 full seasons. Teams will pay more for extra control but he's a clearly worse pitcher so far.

[bmags]

100% believe if Rodon goes to astros he'll become a star.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Yeah but the Cubs also had Samardzija work out of the bullpen for >2 seasons and that's where some of the team control went, that suppresses his numbers even more than Rodon's injury. Samardzija had accumulated 8 fWAR in the 2.5 seasons prior to the trade. Rodon has put up that 6.8 in the equivalent of 3 full seasons. Teams will pay more for extra control but he's a clearly worse pitcher so far.

Wouldn’t the fact that he worked out of the bullpen for half his MLB career prior to the trade kind of work against the superior track record as a starter argument?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

100% believe if Rodon goes to astros he'll become a star.

Tucker and Alvarez please ?

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Wouldn’t the fact that he worked out of the bullpen for half his MLB career prior to the trade kind of work against the superior track record as a starter argument?

Um, no? He was a starter for 2.5 years and outperformed any 3 year stretch you want to pick for Rodon. For Rodon to be worth the kind of return Samardzija brought, he needs to have an excellent first half, better than what we've seen so far.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Um, no? He was a starter for 2.5 years and outperformed any 3 year stretch you want to pick for Rodon. For Rodon to be worth the kind of return Samardzija brought, he needs to have an excellent first half, better than what we've seen so far.

Yea, I disagree. 2.5 years isn’t exactly what I would consider a proven track record in the way you are framing it to be. If Rodon maintains an ERA in the low 3’s with strong peripherals while proving he’s healthy, he’ll be worth what Shark was worth in 2014, at least. Again, extra year of control, 3 years younger, and higher ceiling.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

At some point Moncada, TA and Rodon need to learn how to win games at the major league level.  Taking a step forward this season was important.  Veterans playing well to potentially get something of future value was also important.  

Moncada has overall looked good, though he didn't have a great homestand.  TA has been awesome.  Rodon has been meh.  The rest has been garbage outside of a couple innings from Herrera.  Young pensmen look overmatched.  Lopez looks like he doesn't belong.  Gio has been mostly 2018 version of Gio that isn't a major league caliber SP.

I know you're mostly a blindly positive guy, and that is great.  I am definitely far on the optimistic side as far as Sox fans go, but to say you've been encouraged with this start asinine.  This teams sucks balls and we have very little in the way of close to the majors impact talent waiting in the wings.  

Not sure where to start with this one. Moncada has looked great overall, not just good. Gio had one great start, one awful start. Rodon has been very good overall despite a bad outing vs the Rays. Colome and Herrera have a combined 2.45 ERA across 11 innings. Agree that TA has been awesome and Lopez has been terrible. That doesn’t seem like a terrible start to the season to me from an individual player performance perspective.

[ChiSox59]

33 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Not sure where to start with this one. Moncada has looked great overall, not just good. Gio had one great start, one awful start. Rodon has been very good overall despite a bad outing vs the Rays. Colome and Herrera have a combined 2.45 ERA across 11 innings. Agree that TA has been awesome and Lopez has been terrible. That doesn’t seem like a terrible start to the season to me from an individual player performance perspective.

Yah, just going to agree to disagree.  But way to find the positives, man! 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, just going to agree to disagree.  But way to find the positives, man! 

I’ve found it’s the only way to live a happy life, for me at least!

[greg775]

Can somebody into stats look this one up? How many "blowouts" have the Sox suffered this season compared to all other teams? And how bout looking it up from last season.

I would venture to guess it's not hyperbole to suggest the Sox since the end of the Robin era get blown out of games more often than any other team. It's ridiculous. Poor Bennetti and Stoney often have to start talking about stuff other than the game in the early innings.

You know if the Sox were halfway competitive Hawk never would have considered retiring. I know, Hawk is a granddad and all that, but he hadn't seen truly bad baseball like this in a long long time. Mentally he probably simply couldn't go on, especially since he got crabby whenever his color announcer tried to offer anything.

Edited April 11, 2019 by greg775