2020 MLB Draft Thread

[DirtySox]

4 minutes ago, Flash said:

Could you share where they have Howard listed?

20th.

Quote

Howard is the top prep shortstop in a light high school class at the position and midwest area scouts should have good history with him considering he played alongside D-backs’ second-round pick Alek Thomas (2018) as an underclassman at Mount Carmel (Ill.) High. Howard wowed scouts as a junior in Perfect Game’s Jupiter WWBA tournament, showing high-level ability on both sides of the ball. While he has upside as a hitter, the polished part of Howard’s game comes from his glove. He’s a no-doubt shortstop at the next level as a solid athlete with reliable hands and a strong, accurate throwing arm. He moves fluidly in the middle of the diamond and has the ability to throw from all angles with excellent body control and a solid internal clock. In the 2020 class, he’s the clear-cut top prep defender at the position and has the potential to be a plus defensive shortstop in the big leagues . The one critique in his defensive game is that scouts would like to see better foot speed. He’s a solid runner, but not a burner by any means. Scouts will have to project more on Howard’s offensive game, particularly after not seeing him in games this season. He shows all the tools you want to see, with good bat speed, some bat-to-ball skill and a lithe, 6-foot-2, 185-pound frame that has plenty of room to add more muscle and impact ability. At present he’s more of a gap-to-gap, line-drive type hitter, but scouts want to see him refine his approach. He did a nice job of progressing throughout the summer in 2019 and showing he can make adjustments, but teams are still waiting for him to put it all together. While he is committed to Oklahoma, it’s rare for the top high school shortstop to not go in the first round, and a team that buys into his upside could jump on him in the middle or back half of the first round.

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by DirtySox

[Flash]

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

20th.

 

Thank you

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Ed was definitely the player most affected by the shutdown.  If he came out this spring and showed he can consistently impact the baseball he would have been an easy top 10 pick.  The Sox know him better than any other team so they may still take him at 11 but that would be very risky with so many good options  available at that pick.  It would also be a huge departure from their recent extreme risk averse draft strategy.  

[Flash]

I can see WS dangling a well below slot-value offer to him and keeping powder dry for rounds 2-5.

[PolishPrince34]

Anyone get the Mock Draft from Baseball America? 

[DirtySox]

49 minutes ago, PolishPrince34 said:

Anyone get the Mock Draft from Baseball America? 

Crochet.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Works for me.  

[DirtySox]

Mock 3.0 via BA.

Quote

1.) DET - Spencer Torkelson

2.) BAL - Austin Martin

3.) MIA - Asa Lacy

4.) KC - Nick Gonzales

5.) TOR - Emerson Hancock

6.) SEA - Garrett Mitchell

7.) PIT - Max Meyer

8.) SD - Zac Veen

9.) COL - Mick Abel

10.) ANA - Reid Detmers

11.) CHW - Garrett Crochet

Quote

Notes:

JJ: Where the White Sox are in their rebuild, it makes sense to go with a college arm or a college bat. Crochet carries some moderate risk because he missed time early this season, but before the shutdown, he showed some of the best pure stuff in a strong 2020 pitching class.

Carlos: Similar to Meyer, Crochet has plenty of upside to offer and I also think a college player would make sense considering Chicago’s window. This seems to be the range where Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad’s market could really open up.

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

Also of note. Cavalli at 15 to the Phils. Howard to the Dodgers at 29. Los Angeles would turn that kid into a superstar I bet.

[PolishPrince34]

I’m not very excited about that pick. Gives up a lot hits/contact and hasn’t been dominant in the college ranks. Also, has had issues with his back. Take a pass on him. Rather go with with a hitter in the 1st and high ceilings pitchers with 2nd -5th. Just like last year. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by PolishPrince34

[DirtySox]

Updated Crochet writeup via BA.

Quote

A 6-foot-6, 218-pound southpaw with a fastball that is regularly in the 96-100 mph range as well as a plus breaking ball, Crochet could have the best overall stuff in the class and he certainly has the best stuff of any lefthander. The abbreviated 2020 season hurts Crochet, who doesn’t have the track record of starting that many of the college arms around him do. For this reason, some scouts have compared him to Duke lefthander Graeme Stinson from the 2019 draft class, though Crochet has more starts under his belt at this time than Stinson did entering his junior season. Crochet split time as a starter and reliever during his freshman and sophomore seasons before entering his junior season with a full-time starting role. That was delayed, reportedly due to shoulder soreness, and Crochet made just one start against Wright State—when he threw 3.1 innings with six strikeouts—before the season ended. His stuff looked as loud as ever in that outing, with a fastball that sat between 93-98 mph range and touched 99, as well as a plus slider and above-average changeup. Crochet routinely creates uncomfortable at-bats against hitters, particularly lefties, with his length and the angle he creates in his delivery. His fastball explodes out of his hand and is a plus-plus pitch at the moment, giving him an elite two-pitch mix that gives him the fallback of a relief ace if starting doesn’t work out. His secondary offerings have been inconsistent in the past, but both have flashed above-average potential frequently enough to project that in the future. There aren’t any glaring reasons why Crochet couldn’t start, and his strike-throwing with Tennessee has been fine (3.37 walks per nine for his career), but teams are wary of the relative lack of track record in that role. If a team is willing to take a risk, Crochet’s pure stuff fits at the absolute top of the draft and while there’s a good deal of variance in his current profile, it’s difficult to find this stuff and size from a lefthander.

 

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Updated Crochet writeup via BA.

 

I'd be thrilled if the Sox took Crochet. Could end up like Sale. Similar to him there in so many ways, in terms of risk/reward. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Dominikk85]

On 4/13/2020 at 9:05 PM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's not something I'm too terribly worried about with this guy.  He's big, strong, athletic and he does it really clean and easy.  They can make little adjustments to help him add some deception or they could give him a 2 seamer or a different grip to make the ball cut.  He checks a lot of boxes for me.  

Definitely, some spin axis adjustment/pitch design could improve him a lot, you just have to trust the Sox pitching dev to do that.

Generally at 11 you have to concede something, this is not a top5 pick and you either have to give up ceiling if you want a really sound, polished player or floor and accept some flaws that need to be worked out if you want high ceiling.

The super safe but high upside guys will be long gone at 11 and you will have to give something.

[Y2Jimmy0]

2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Mock 3.0 via BA.

 

Some injury risk on Crochet. he reminds me some of Graeme Stinson which isn't a good thing. I don't think a college hitter is an option honestly. College pitching or a prep player. If this mock draft plays out in this manner, I think the White Sox Jared Kelley. They were all over Reid Detmers this spring but he'll be gone. I'd think Cade Cavalli and Tanner Burns are options on college side. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I don't see the Stinson comp.  Stinson was two different pitchers as a starter and reliever.  In short stints he was low to mid 90's and as a starter he was upper 80's t-90.  He clearly lacked arm strength which is why he dropped to the 4th round.  Arm strength is not a concern for Crochet.   He has been ouchy but nothing arm related.  If they knew the season would only be 4 weeks long he would have pitched from the get go but they held him back so he would be strong for conference play.   I would love this pick.  

[GGajewski18]

I'm with James here.  No way I see the Sox taking a college hitter this year.  Jared Kelly or Ed Howard are my top two choices at 11 assuming no one falls.  

I wonder now that Howard is projecting to go lower that they can under slot him in the first round and push another HS talent back to 49 and over slot there.  It'll be a very interesting draft this year imo.  

In regards to college pitching, I do like Crochet, but like many of you I do have concerns.   I really think going prep is the way to go this year.

[southsider2k5]

30 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I don't see the Stinson comp.  Stinson was two different pitchers as a starter and reliever.  In short stints he was low to mid 90's and as a starter he was upper 80's t-90.  He clearly lacked arm strength which is why he dropped to the 4th round.  Arm strength is not a concern for Crochet.   He has been ouchy but nothing arm related.  If they knew the season would only be 4 weeks long he would have pitched from the get go but they held him back so he would be strong for conference play.   I would love this pick.  

Didn't they say he had a shoulder problem?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Didn't they say he had a shoulder problem?

I think they called it "shoulder fatigue" which is loosely translated to "we have to win some god damn conference games so we don't get our asses fired."  

[Dominikk85]

I'm not against a college hitter but only if one of the top4 falls. 

Imo there is quite a drop of in talent of college hitters after that.

2012 college hitters

1. Mike Zunino

2. David Dahl

3.tyler naquin

4. Devan marrero

Other notables -

2013:

1. Bryant

2. Hunter Dozier 

3.dj Peterson

4. Hunter renfroe

Notables: Tim anderson

2014:

1. Schwarber

2. Conforto

3. Pentecost

4.trea Turner

Notables:Bradley Zimmer 

2015:

1. Swanson

2. Bergman

3. Benintendi

4. Happ

Notables: Kevin Newman, DJ Stewart

 

Generally the top 3 tend to be good to very good with some exceptions but then there usually is a big drop if in the first round and the rounds after that get really bad.

 

2015 was a bit of an exception as it was very deep on college guys but generally I would want one of the top4 or a prep guy. College pitcher I also would want one of the top 3-4.

[Flash]

14 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Some injury risk on Crochet. he reminds me some of Graeme Stinson which isn't a good thing. I don't think a college hitter is an option honestly. College pitching or a prep player. If this mock draft plays out in this manner, I think the White Sox Jared Kelley. They were all over Reid Detmers this spring but he'll be gone. I'd think Cade Cavalli and Tanner Burns are options on college side. 

Jimmy - between Kelley, Abel and Bitsko who do you prefer for WS and do you prefer any/all to Crochet?

[Y2Jimmy0]

Abel has the most upside but Kelley is the most polished. I just haven't heard the Sox linked to BItsko or even Abel at all. They really like Kelley though. If Kelley is on the board, I think that ends up being the pick. If it's not him though, I think they go college pitching most likely. 

[SoxAce]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Abel has the most upside but Kelley is the most polished. I just haven't heard the Sox linked to BItsko or even Abel at all. They really like Kelley though. If Kelley is on the board, I think that ends up being the pick. If it's not him though, I think they go college pitching most likely. 

I was just about to say just say Abel, James. You know you wanna. (he's my guy too)

[DirtySox]

Since Jimmy has indicated a potential link to Kelley, here's an updated scouting report via BA.

Quote

A man among boys in the high school class, Kelley is the most MLB-ready prep pitcher thanks to his current stuff and physicality. Standing 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Kelley runs his fastball up into the 97-99 mph range with shocking ease. He looks like he’s playing catch on the mound with a loose, fluid delivery and little to no head whack in his finish. Perhaps in part because of the ease of his entire operation, Kelley locates his premium stuff in a way that’s beyond his years, with some scouts projecting him to have future plus command. The ease in which he does everything makes it look like his fastball explodes out of his hand, and he pairs that pitch with a low-80s plus changeup that he throws with good arm speed. The pitch is a swing-and-miss offering with excellent diving life and, like he does with his fastball, Kelley shows good feel to spot it where he wants in or out of the strike zone. The biggest question with Kelley entering the spring was in regard to his breaking ball. Over the summer he showed a slider in the low 80s, sometimes-slurvy slider. It was inconsistent and far from the wipeout projection that teams would like to see out of the top high school pitcher in the class. While Kelley didn’t get a full spring season, scouts still saw signs of improvement from his breaking ball and gave it a chance for it to become average or above-average. Kelley will battle the stigma and spotty track record that comes with being a hard-throwing high school righty, while also competing in one of the strongest college pitching classes in recent memory. Still, he does several things at an exceptionally high level that are impossible to teach, and has No. 2 starter upside. Kelley is committed to Texas.

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Now stuff HS pitchers are scary.  Ok he's "MLB-ready" but he's not going to be in MLB for 3-5 years at the earliest.  What happens over those 3-5 years?  Does he get better?  His stuff and body are already maxed out. Personally I like guys who can keep building and improving themselves during that time over guys who have to maintain their stuff over that same time period.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Now stuff HS pitchers are scary.  Ok he's "MLB-ready" but he's not going to be in MLB for 3-5 years at the earliest.  What happens over those 3-5 years?  Does he get better?  His stuff and body are already maxed out. Personally I like guys who can keep building and improving themselves during that time over guys who have to maintain their stuff over that same time period.

I agree with you, but I will trust the scouts here. Sox have not been attracted to that prototype before so that they are here obviously could be related to Shirley but also could reflect their belief that Kelley is different (which hopefully they are right on but it's a dangerous game).