2020 MLB Draft Thread

[Y2Jimmy0]

59 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Rounds 4 and 5 you could go 10k (like last year) and then bring round 2 and 3 to 2 mil and 1 mill correct?

Theoretically, yes but I'm not sure punting 2/5 picks makes much sense. You should get the 5 best players you can sign in my opinion. 

[GGajewski18]

18 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Theoretically, yes but I'm not sure punting 2/5 picks makes much sense. You should get the 5 best players you can sign in my opinion. 

Agreed, especially in a 5 round draft.

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Theoretically, yes but I'm not sure punting 2/5 picks makes much sense. You should get the 5 best players you can sign in my opinion. 

Yes. Back then you could punt the 4 to 5 pick and still get legitimate prospects in the 6th and 7th round but with 5 rounds you want 5 legitimate prospects because you don't know who you can get later for 20k

[southsider2k5]

On 5/26/2020 at 11:51 PM, southsider2k5 said:

Another side thought, how many guys are seeing the Oakland As right now knowing that they will only get 20k offers in 2 weeks and thinking that there is no way in hell they will sign with them, versus a franchise like the White Sox who are going to keep paying their guys.

To follow up on this, check out this string of tweets on the topic,  Hopefully this helps the Sox.

 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I’ve seen some people compare Crochet to Chris Sale. Does anyone know if that’s actually somewhat true?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

There are definitely some similarities.  They're both tall left handers with nasty stuff but they do it different. Sale's delivery is much more violent than Crochet's. Sale is more across his body with a low 3/4 arm slot that makes his already great stuff play up because he's able to create crazy angles on his pitches.   Crochet does it easier lands closed and has a more traditional 3/4 arm slot.  Mechanics wise Crochet is closer to Andrew Miller than Chris Sale.  I'm not sure you can ever comp anyone to Chris Sale.  The guy's a freak. 

[Jack Parkman]

17 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I’ve seen some people compare Crochet to Chris Sale. Does anyone know if that’s actually somewhat true?

It's more about the Stuff+6-6 LHP+ low 3/4 delivery+reliever risk coming out of college. When we make that comparison, we're talking about Sale, the amateur prospect in 2010, not Sale, the MLB pitcher on a HOF trajectory. 

Edited May 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[HollywoodTim]

I think Stacey King once said, "If you're scared, buy a dog."  If they end up making a safe pick here instead of a high upside risk I'm just going to go ahead and call the guy Lance Broadway regardless of whatever his name is.  Then I'll wake up from this trade players for prospects / draft high / sign INTL FAs dream I'm having and realize I'm still a White Sox fan and it's still 2007-2015 or whatever.

[HollywoodTim]

It's disappointing to see a Law quote in this thread about draft philosophy still coming from the top.  The reinsdorf/williams regime just cannot ever go away.  

And for all of the crap Law gets here including for his criticism of Sale as a prospect, for the most part I think he's been very correct about our system, and I think he has also proven to have some of the best or most reliable sources about our organization.  I remember when it was Phil Rogers just spouting whatever line of bullshit Dave Wilder was feeding him, for a while.

[HollywoodTim]

Also: passing on Rick Porcello and drafting Aaron Poreda because nobody wanted to pay Porcello.  Never forget.

[Flash]

Draft hope #1 (in order of preference) Abel, Detmers, Meyer, Howard - most mocks have WS grabbing Bailey and while I wouldn't be crushed, if top pitchers are off the board, I'd prefer Howard, ideally under-slotted ($3.75-4M range)

                     #2  Jared Shuster, Masyn Winn or possibly Austin Wells (quite possible all 3 will be gone).

                     #3-5 if Howard selected at 11, I'd focus on pitchers with all 3 picks. If we get one of the top pitchers at 11, I'd try to grab a college SS/2B w/one of these picks. 

[whisoxman20051917]

My five-round mock:

First round in order of who I think the Sox will select (not necessarily what I'd choose) I truly believe they'll go college here (which seems their M.O. in the first round), though I'd prefer to see a prep player like Ed Howard or Jared Kelley instead.They'd choose Reid Detmers or Max Meyer if either fall to #11. Provided that doesn't happen, I believe they'll go with this order: Garrett Mitchell, Heston Kjerstad, Patrick Bailey, Garrett Crochet and Cole Wilcox.

Second round: There are a ton of prep arms in this round, and I wouldn't mind paying over-slot to grab one. I really like Tanner Witt here, but they wouldn't go wrong with guys like Justin Lange, Hunter Barnhart, Jared Jones, Ben Hernandez and Alex Santos here either if available for the Sox. They all have good arms. The last two may even be had at slot value or below, as their commitments to UIC and Maryland shouldn't be insurmountable. It may take going up to $600,000 over-slot to sign Witt, but I believe it'd be worth it -- he even wields an intriguing power bat which could play at right field or an infield corner. As teams can still spend up to 5% over the draft allotment without incurring anything more than a tax on the overage, most of the over-slot cash can be used with this pick.    

Third round: I really like Landon Knack of East Tennessee State with this pick here: He's a college senior whose velocity really ticked up this year. Throwing up to 98 mph with adequate off-speed pitches, he's got solid command with terrific control. All he did in four starts this year was post a 1.08 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in 25 innings, allowing just 12 hits and one walk while fanning a whopping 51! As a college senior, he still lacks some leverage in comparison with prep guys and college underclassmen. Thus, it wouldn't be out of line to sign him to under-slot to help afford a prep guy in the second round and perhaps the fourth as well.

Fourth round: If the Sox sign Knack, that gives them the financial flexibilty to go after Arkansas recruit Cayden Wallace. He reminds me a lot of a young Todd Frazier with his power and defensive potential, and an under-slot signing of Knack (or other guys like Miami's Brian Van Belle, Louisville's Luke Smith or South Alabama's Drake Nightengale) could help get that done. If the Sox go a more traditional at-slot pick in the third round, guys who could be available here include Oklahoma's Dane Acker, Louisville lefty reliever Michael Kirian or Georgia Tech's Ryan Webb.

Fifth round: OK, the first four picks would include Garrett Mitchell, Tanner Witt, Landon Knack and Cayden Wallace. This is such a strong pitching draft, that I believe the White Sox must go with yet another pitcher in the fifth round. A dark-horse candidate I really like is Tulane's Braden Olthoff, who converted to pitcher as a senior in high school. All he does is throw strikes, He's got a good build (6'4", 208 lb.) and doesn't have much mileage on his arm. In four starts totaling 28 innings for Tulane this year, he posted an impressive 0.32 ERA and 0.54 WHIP by surrendering just twelve hits and three walks while striking out 47. His fastball isn't overpowering (tops at 93-94) which explains why he may fall to the fifth round (his highest ranking is by Baseball America at 192), but also features an above-average changeup, along with an adequate slider and curve. With his command (plus he's never surrendered a gopher ball in his three years of JUCO and Division-1 baseball), he could be a quick riser. It's likely that Olthoff could be signed for a slightly under-slot bonus if need be as well.

UDFA: With bonuses maxed out at a mere $20,000 for all players beyond the fifth round, we won't see any high school guys or many college underclassmen in the UDFA ranks. The likeliest to sign would be college seniors who've already graduated, or even likelier, players who were already fifth-year seniors who already getting up there in years. There could be strong competition for these players, and with the inability to spend more than the next guy, the odds may be with signing local guys. The Sox also have a propensity for signing players in baseball families. Here's my list of who the Sox could target:

Justin Dirden: For SE Missouri State, he hit 9 homers and knocked in 26 over just 70 at-bats while hitting .414/.471/.900. He profiles as a corner outfielder and turns 23 in July.
Dan Bolt: With Bradley this year, he slashed .357/.449/.881 with 7 homers in just 42 at-bats. Like Dirden, he profiles as a corner bat.
Will Simoneit: A Glen Ellyn native, he slashed .377/.462/.642 as a catcher with Wake Forest this year.
Ty Johnson. A fifth-year senior with Tulane, he slashed .362/.492/.681 while catching the likes of the aforementioned Braden Olthoff.    
Brett Auerbach: A versatile player who could play left field, third base and catcher, he slashed .388/.506/.642 with three homers, 12 SB, 17 walks and just 8 strikeouts in 17 games for Alabama.

Dylan Dodd (LHP): A native of downstate Danville and formerly of Kankakee CC, he posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP as a starter for SE Missouri State while allowing just 22 hits and 7 walks while fanning 36 in 26 1/3 innings.

Colton Johnson (LHP) With Illinois State, he posted a 3.60 ERA by surrendering just six walks while fanning 37 in 25 innings.

Tristan Weaver (LHP) A native of downstate Auburn, he posted a 1.85 ERA and 0.66 WHIP for Indiana State in 24 1/3 innings by allowing just eight hits and eight walks while fanning 34.

Jarret Olson (LHP) A native of LaSalle, he posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year for Michigan State with 13 hits, 15 walks and 28 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings.

Eric Orze (RHP). A native of Carol Stream, Orze has determination by the bucketful as he's already survived both testicular and skin cancer. He's got the classic pitcher build (6'3, 185 lb) but profiles as a reliever as he understandably runs out of gas quickly. In 19 2/3 innings for New Orleans this year, he posted a 2.75 ERA allowing just five hits in 19 2/3 innings.

Jason Ruffcorn (RHP) Son of former Sox hurler Scott Ruffcorn, he pitched eight innings of shutout relief as an Oklahoma senior as he allowed 3 hits and one walk while fanning 12.

Ty Madrigal (LHP) Twin brother of Nick, he posted a 4.43 ERA for Loyola Marymount this year as a redshirt senior. His best year was as a junior when he posted a terrific 1.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 54 punchouts in 47 relief innings.

Chase Maddux (RHP) Wouldn't it be nice to win a public relations coup over the Cubs with this son of Hall-of-Famer Greg? At a lanky 6'2" and 145 pounds, he really doesn't profile as a prospect but he did well as a fifth-year senior out of the pen with UNLV with a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings while walking four and fanning 19.

Other impressive arms who could be difficult to sign but are worth pursuing include Portland's Christian Peters (RHSP), UCLA's Kyle Mora (RHRP), Miami's Brian Van Belle (RHSP), Luke Smith (RHSP), Auburrn's Carson Spiers and Florida Sta LHRP Antonio Velez.

 

  

   

[Flash]

Excellent post. Lots of analysis. I like Garrett Mitchell better than Bailey et al but hoping for Howard if the top arms are taken. 

[Dominikk85]

Are you worried about that diabetes thing with Mitchell?

[Flash]

2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Are you worried about that diabetes thing with Mitchell?

My guess is there have been a number of professional athletes in general and baseball players in particular who have enjoyed success while also managing this health challenge but I have no idea of the performance and/or longevity impact. I do like Mitchells tools and his upside, especially if he can tap into his power and hope he has a lengthy and productive career, ideally with the WS.   

[ptatc]

48 minutes ago, Flash said:

My guess is there have been a number of professional athletes in general and baseball players in particular who have enjoyed success while also managing this health challenge but I have no idea of the performance and/or longevity impact. I do like Mitchells tools and his upside, especially if he can tap into his power and hope he has a lengthy and productive career, ideally with the WS.   

There are a number of of professional athletes, the most prominent one in Chicago,  Jay Cutler.  They just have to be monitored much more closely with workouts and eating.

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

There are a number of of professional athletes, the most prominent one in Chicago,  Jay Cutler.  They just have to be monitored much more closely with workouts and eating.

The biggest issue with the diabetes is other clubs. Even if the Sox are comfortable with it, many teams aren't and it potentially limits trade options down the road. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Pref list:

1. Austin Martin

2. Asa Lacy

3. Spencer Torkelson

4. Zack Veen

5. Emerson Hancock

6. Max Meyer

7. Mick Abel

8. Garrett Crochet

9. Cade Cavalli

10. Heston Kjerstad

11. Reid Detmers

12. Robert Hassell

13. Ed Howard

14. Cole Wilcox

15. Tyler Soderstrom

 

[DirtySox]

@Harold's Leg Lift 

You obviously aren't enamored with Bailey seeing as he's not on your preference list. Curious your overall thoughts and assessment of him?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I do have some concerns about Bailey that pushes him down the board.  I don't like his swing.  He has a deep load which means he pushes his hands back and that creates an arm bar and he does this from both sides of the plate.  Arm bars are subjective as some will tell you there are hall of famers who had an arm bar but I feel it makes it very difficult to consistently barrel up an inside fastball.  I also question his durability.  Durability is one of if not the biggest qualities for a catcher.  Big league catchers take an absolute beating and Bailey's not the biggest guy in the word.   I'm not sure he's a guy that can consistently catch you 120+ games a season. I feel there will be much better options available at 1-11.  

[DirtySox]

 

[BigHurt3515]

On 5/31/2020 at 1:27 PM, whisoxman20051917 said:

My five-round mock:

First round in order of who I think the Sox will select (not necessarily what I'd choose) I truly believe they'll go college here (which seems their M.O. in the first round), though I'd prefer to see a prep player like Ed Howard or Jared Kelley instead.They'd choose Reid Detmers or Max Meyer if either fall to #11. Provided that doesn't happen, I believe they'll go with this order: Garrett Mitchell, Heston Kjerstad, Patrick Bailey, Garrett Crochet and Cole Wilcox.

Second round: There are a ton of prep arms in this round, and I wouldn't mind paying over-slot to grab one. I really like Tanner Witt here, but they wouldn't go wrong with guys like Justin Lange, Hunter Barnhart, Jared Jones, Ben Hernandez and Alex Santos here either if available for the Sox. They all have good arms. The last two may even be had at slot value or below, as their commitments to UIC and Maryland shouldn't be insurmountable. It may take going up to $600,000 over-slot to sign Witt, but I believe it'd be worth it -- he even wields an intriguing power bat which could play at right field or an infield corner. As teams can still spend up to 5% over the draft allotment without incurring anything more than a tax on the overage, most of the over-slot cash can be used with this pick.    

Third round: I really like Landon Knack of East Tennessee State with this pick here: He's a college senior whose velocity really ticked up this year. Throwing up to 98 mph with adequate off-speed pitches, he's got solid command with terrific control. All he did in four starts this year was post a 1.08 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in 25 innings, allowing just 12 hits and one walk while fanning a whopping 51! As a college senior, he still lacks some leverage in comparison with prep guys and college underclassmen. Thus, it wouldn't be out of line to sign him to under-slot to help afford a prep guy in the second round and perhaps the fourth as well.

Fourth round: If the Sox sign Knack, that gives them the financial flexibilty to go after Arkansas recruit Cayden Wallace. He reminds me a lot of a young Todd Frazier with his power and defensive potential, and an under-slot signing of Knack (or other guys like Miami's Brian Van Belle, Louisville's Luke Smith or South Alabama's Drake Nightengale) could help get that done. If the Sox go a more traditional at-slot pick in the third round, guys who could be available here include Oklahoma's Dane Acker, Louisville lefty reliever Michael Kirian or Georgia Tech's Ryan Webb.

Fifth round: OK, the first four picks would include Garrett Mitchell, Tanner Witt, Landon Knack and Cayden Wallace. This is such a strong pitching draft, that I believe the White Sox must go with yet another pitcher in the fifth round. A dark-horse candidate I really like is Tulane's Braden Olthoff, who converted to pitcher as a senior in high school. All he does is throw strikes, He's got a good build (6'4", 208 lb.) and doesn't have much mileage on his arm. In four starts totaling 28 innings for Tulane this year, he posted an impressive 0.32 ERA and 0.54 WHIP by surrendering just twelve hits and three walks while striking out 47. His fastball isn't overpowering (tops at 93-94) which explains why he may fall to the fifth round (his highest ranking is by Baseball America at 192), but also features an above-average changeup, along with an adequate slider and curve. With his command (plus he's never surrendered a gopher ball in his three years of JUCO and Division-1 baseball), he could be a quick riser. It's likely that Olthoff could be signed for a slightly under-slot bonus if need be as well.

UDFA: With bonuses maxed out at a mere $20,000 for all players beyond the fifth round, we won't see any high school guys or many college underclassmen in the UDFA ranks. The likeliest to sign would be college seniors who've already graduated, or even likelier, players who were already fifth-year seniors who already getting up there in years. There could be strong competition for these players, and with the inability to spend more than the next guy, the odds may be with signing local guys. The Sox also have a propensity for signing players in baseball families. Here's my list of who the Sox could target:

Justin Dirden: For SE Missouri State, he hit 9 homers and knocked in 26 over just 70 at-bats while hitting .414/.471/.900. He profiles as a corner outfielder and turns 23 in July.
Dan Bolt: With Bradley this year, he slashed .357/.449/.881 with 7 homers in just 42 at-bats. Like Dirden, he profiles as a corner bat.
Will Simoneit: A Glen Ellyn native, he slashed .377/.462/.642 as a catcher with Wake Forest this year.
Ty Johnson. A fifth-year senior with Tulane, he slashed .362/.492/.681 while catching the likes of the aforementioned Braden Olthoff.    
Brett Auerbach: A versatile player who could play left field, third base and catcher, he slashed .388/.506/.642 with three homers, 12 SB, 17 walks and just 8 strikeouts in 17 games for Alabama.

Dylan Dodd (LHP): A native of downstate Danville and formerly of Kankakee CC, he posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP as a starter for SE Missouri State while allowing just 22 hits and 7 walks while fanning 36 in 26 1/3 innings.

Colton Johnson (LHP) With Illinois State, he posted a 3.60 ERA by surrendering just six walks while fanning 37 in 25 innings.

Tristan Weaver (LHP) A native of downstate Auburn, he posted a 1.85 ERA and 0.66 WHIP for Indiana State in 24 1/3 innings by allowing just eight hits and eight walks while fanning 34.

Jarret Olson (LHP) A native of LaSalle, he posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year for Michigan State with 13 hits, 15 walks and 28 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings.

Eric Orze (RHP). A native of Carol Stream, Orze has determination by the bucketful as he's already survived both testicular and skin cancer. He's got the classic pitcher build (6'3, 185 lb) but profiles as a reliever as he understandably runs out of gas quickly. In 19 2/3 innings for New Orleans this year, he posted a 2.75 ERA allowing just five hits in 19 2/3 innings.

Jason Ruffcorn (RHP) Son of former Sox hurler Scott Ruffcorn, he pitched eight innings of shutout relief as an Oklahoma senior as he allowed 3 hits and one walk while fanning 12.

Ty Madrigal (LHP) Twin brother of Nick, he posted a 4.43 ERA for Loyola Marymount this year as a redshirt senior. His best year was as a junior when he posted a terrific 1.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 54 punchouts in 47 relief innings.

Chase Maddux (RHP) Wouldn't it be nice to win a public relations coup over the Cubs with this son of Hall-of-Famer Greg? At a lanky 6'2" and 145 pounds, he really doesn't profile as a prospect but he did well as a fifth-year senior out of the pen with UNLV with a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings while walking four and fanning 19.

Other impressive arms who could be difficult to sign but are worth pursuing include Portland's Christian Peters (RHSP), UCLA's Kyle Mora (RHRP), Miami's Brian Van Belle (RHSP), Luke Smith (RHSP), Auburrn's Carson Spiers and Florida Sta LHRP Antonio Velez.

 

  

   

Thank you for highlighting some SEMO guys, unfortunately I haven't been able to watch them play much the past couple years so I haven't gotten the chance to see Dodd pitch but he was considered a two way player coming from JUCO, but focused solely when he made the jump. Dirden came from Jeffco (Buehrle's JUCO) and had a great Junior year, he then got injured (shoulder I believe) at the beginning of last year and redshirted. He was off to a hot start this year and was probably going to break records, he has a great bat. Would love the Sox to pick up one. 

[Springfield Soxfan]

Bailey is the pick for sure.   

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I do have some concerns about Bailey that pushes him down the board.  I don't like his swing.  He has a deep load which means he pushes his hands back and that creates an arm bar and he does this from both sides of the plate.  Arm bars are subjective as some will tell you there are hall of famers who had an arm bar but I feel it makes it very difficult to consistently barrel up an inside fastball.  I also question his durability.  Durability is one of if not the biggest qualities for a catcher.  Big league catchers take an absolute beating and Bailey's not the biggest guy in the word.   I'm not sure he's a guy that can consistently catch you 120+ games a season. I feel there will be much better options available at 1-11.  

Yeah, there are many mlb players with an arm bar but usually they tend to be 240 hitters with power like frazier.

Griffey obviously was an exception but I would prefer no arm bar. It is also not an easy thing to change, I have been working with a HS kid and he has a hard time correcting that despite working on it a lot.

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, sox71 said:

Bailey is the pick for sure.   

I don't believe he will be.