2020 MLB Draft Thread

[ChiSoxFanMike]

11 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

 

 

If this is true, I wonder if the Sox could underslot Howard in the 1st and overslot Kelley in the 2nd. I would like that a lot.

[PolishPrince34]

Would love for that scenario to happen. Doubtful Kelley will be there in the 2nd Round with teams with multiple picks. 

[PolishPrince34]

10 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Mayo mock. More Bailey. Zzz.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-3?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Mayo also didn’t have Howard in the first. Interested to see if he drops due to his medicals/Shoulder.

[bmags]

Howard definitely seems like those recent prep SSs that go 20-30 to the better orgs and turn into a hot prospect. Though, those orgs are good at that, maybe it's more than the player.

I'd be pro howard though.

The nice thing about prep arm in first is there's no development this season anyway.

[timbo8]

so is howard really good huh

[southsider2k5]

53 minutes ago, bmags said:

Howard definitely seems like those recent prep SSs that go 20-30 to the better orgs and turn into a hot prospect. Though, those orgs are good at that, maybe it's more than the player.

I'd be pro howard though.

The nice thing about prep arm in first is there's no development this season anyway.

We essentially did that with Tim Anderson.  Sure he went to a JuCo, but he was a basketball players up until mid high school, and essentially came out of college with a high school level of experience.  I'd love a Howard pick in concept, especially if we get an underslot deal to do it.

[DirtySox]

For those trying to distinguish/learn more about the prep hitters that we are hearing mentioned, will share some BA scouting reports.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-draft-top-prospects/

Austin Hendrick:

Quote

Hendrick impressed scouts with his hitting and power potential over the summer showcase circuit, where he showed the ability to lay off bad pitches at East Coast Pro and at USA Baseball’s PDP League. He put together a three-home run game on June 27 and upped the ante at the 2019 Under Armour High School All-American Game when he hit a ball out of Wrigley Field. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound outfielder has the quickest pure bat speed in the class and complements it with light tower raw power, giving him arguably the best power/hit combo of any high school hitter. Hendrick has extremely quick hands that allow him to get to his 70-grade power, though he’s had to implement some timing mechanisms to keep himself back. Those adjustments have included a quirky toe-tap which has been replaced by a fluid leg kick. Hendrick’s consistency with his bat leaves fewer questions than for other high school hitters, though he does have some swing-and-miss concerns. However, the pitching he regularly faces in Pennsylvania is significantly worse than the better arms in the high school class, and he has the natural tools to make all the adjustments necessary as he moves up the ladder. He showed that ability to adjust last summer in games. Hendrick has proved he can play all three outfield positions in high school, but scouts are split on his defensive routes. Some scouts believe he tracks the ball well, but most agree that his arm strength is near the top of the class. Hendrick is best suited to play in a corner-outfield spot, where his power and above-average arm strength suit him well. A 2020 high school preseason first-team All-American, Hendrick wasn’t seen much this spring, but likely would have had a tough time changing his draft stock much given the competition. Hendrick is older for the high school class and will turn 19 in the middle of June. Still, he should be one of the first prep names selected, and it’s unlikely he makes it to campus at Mississippi State.

Robert Hassell:

Quote

Hassell is at the top of the list when it comes to the best hitters in the high school class. He was voted as the top pure hitter in the class by scouting directors, over outfielders like Austin Hendrick and Pete Crow-Armstrong and has few holes in a loose, lefthanded swing. Hassell was the most consistent hitter for USA Baseball’s 18U National Team last summer, leading the Americans in 10 offensive categories while posting a .514/.548/.886 slash line. For his efforts, he was named the World Baseball Softball Confederation’s 2019 International Player of the Year. Hassell has a lean frame with an exceptionally handsy swing that reminds some scouts of players like Jarred Kelenic and Riley Greene, in terms of hittingl potential. He brings a sound approach to the table and understands the strike zone, rarely swinging and missing no matter the stuff, using the entire field and showing an advanced ability to make adjustments. Hassell has a fairly lean frame at 6-foot-2 and 190 pounds, and scouts are mixed on his future power potential, with some wondering how much bigger he’ll get and others more optimistic about him developing average or 55-grade power. Defensively, Hassell has a chance to stick in center field. He’s an above-average runner with above-average arm strength, but his speed is better underway and he lacks the elite sort of footspeed that most major league center fielders possess. It’s more likely that he winds up in a corner, where he could be a good defender, though that will put more pressure on the Vanderbilt commit growing into more power. It’s rare for the top prep hitter in the class to fall out of the top half of the first round, but teams didn’t see Hassell much this spring and he’ll also be competing against a strong group of prep outfielders.

Tyler Soderstrom:

Quote

Soderstrom is at the top of a strong 2020 prep catching class (along with Texas catcher Drew Romo) and was one of the biggest risers last summer after a wire-to-wire terrific offensive performance. A 6-foot-2, 190-pound UCLA commit, Soderstrom hit well at a number of big showcase events, including the Area Code Games, showing power potential and a polished lefthanded bat. Almost every scout is excited about the offensive potential he offers, with plus raw power that he gets to frequently in games now, and more physical projection. Defensively, there are more questions. While the consensus on his bat is glowing, almost every evaluator questions his ability to remain behind the plate moving forward. His size is a question, as is his ability to sit behind the plate and be a good receiver. He’ll need to improve his lower-half flexibility, and while his natural arm strength is impressive, he needs to shorten his arm stroke and improve his footwork on throws. Scouts believe Soderstrom has the passion to catch, so some teams could send him out and let him figure it out, while others might be more inclined to let him play third, first or even a corner-outfield spot, where his bat could move quicker and still profile well. There are some similarities with Soderstrom and 2018 Indians first-round pick Bo Naylor (though Naylor had better natural feel to hit at the time) and enough teams seem to like him in the first round that he won’t get to campus in Los Angeles.

Ed Howard:

Quote

Howard is the top prep shortstop in a light high school class at the position and midwest area scouts should have good history with him considering he played alongside D-backs’ second-round pick Alek Thomas (2018) as an underclassman at Mount Carmel (Ill.) High. Howard wowed scouts as a junior in Perfect Game’s Jupiter WWBA tournament, showing high-level ability on both sides of the ball. While he has upside as a hitter, the polished part of Howard’s game comes from his glove. He’s a no-doubt shortstop at the next level as a solid athlete with reliable hands and a strong, accurate throwing arm. He moves fluidly in the middle of the diamond and has the ability to throw from all angles with excellent body control and a solid internal clock. In the 2020 class, he’s the clear-cut top prep defender at the position and has the potential to be a plus defensive shortstop in the big leagues . The one critique in his defensive game is that scouts would like to see better foot speed. He’s a solid runner, but not a burner by any means. Scouts will have to project more on Howard’s offensive game, particularly after not seeing him in games this season. He shows all the tools you want to see, with good bat speed, some bat-to-ball skill and a lithe, 6-foot-2, 185-pound frame that has plenty of room to add more muscle and impact ability. At present he’s more of a gap-to-gap, line-drive type hitter, but scouts want to see him refine his approach. He did a nice job of progressing throughout the summer in 2019 and showing he can make adjustments, but teams are still waiting for him to put it all together. While he is committed to Oklahoma, it’s rare for the top high school shortstop to not go in the first round, and a team that buys into his upside could jump on him in the middle or back half of the first round.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by DirtySox

[Harry Chappas]

I'm not certain underslot/overslot is a great idea in this draft especially in Shirley's maiden voyage.  

[DirtySox]

Via Law Chat today.

Quote

Alan

1:28

Morning. Curious about Crochet not being present in your first round mock. Is the lack of track record causing the slide?

Keith Law

1:29

He only pitched once this spring, throwing an unannounced relief appearance on the final weekend that I was told only six scouts saw. He also got lit up by RHB last year. If he's just a reliever, which is a real probability, then he's not a first rounder.

1:30

Oh, also, he missed the first three weekends of the year for undisclosed reasons.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

A few other draft bits from Law's chat.

Quote

Ben

1:32

Klaw, thanks as always.  Haven't really kept up to date with draft talk, just this week started reading some things you've put out, mock-wise, to familiarize myself.  Just curious, how do you think the abbreviated draft will affect team's approach this year? Would it be silly to get away from best talent available over system needs?

Keith Law

1:33

Always BPA. Never draft for need. Now this year some teams may choose to be more conservative and rank college  talent over HS, or hitting over pitching, which is understandable given the state of the game and the economy, but I still wouldn't draft for need.

Quote

JO

1:42

Hey Klaw, As for just the bat, how does Torkelson compare to Andrew Vaughn?  I assume you have seen both in person. Does one seem to have more power than the other? Same for hit tool, approach and and barrel awareness. Or would you call them a push on hitting?  Thanks

Keith Law

1:42

Vaughn much better hitter. Torkelson has more power and could possibly play LF.

Quote

Marco

1:43

Do you think Reid Detmers has a chance to add velo to the FASTBALL and eventually  become a #2 SP?

Keith Law

1:43

No.

Quote

Zzz

1:46

Any chance the White Sox could underslot Ed Howard at 11 and use those savings to get value with later picks?

Keith Law

1:46

I suppose there's a chance but it's not very likely.

Quote

Jeb

1:48

What's the argument against Bitsko in the first round? Cold weather, short history? Is signability an issue? I understand why he might not be a top-10 pick, but it seems like he'd be a pretty good gamble later in the first round based of stuff and age, at a minimum?

Keith Law

1:48

Didn't pitch this spring and was barely scouted last year because he was still a 2021 guy until the fall.

Quote

Chris

1:56

Is blaze Jordan going to be drafted high enough to sign or will he end up in college?

Keith Law

1:57

I think someone takes him high enough for him to sign, but he's not really that good. It's a bet on raw power he can't get to with his current swing. Add him to the list of kids who were massively overhyped when they were 13 and didn't turn out to be anything close to what they were supposed to be.

Quote

Kretin

2:06

I've read a lot about Meyer being slightly shorter than a pitcher should be. Is this a big concern for teams over his stuff and results?

Keith Law

2:06

He's not, and it's only a slight issue. I think if he were 6'3" we'd talk about him at 1-1.

Quote

addoeh

2:06

Do you think a team with real WS expectations might take a few relievers that are ready now to increase their odds this year?  I'm thinking especially after the first round.

Keith Law

2:07

Yes.

Quote

Mary Jo

2:10

In a recent column on The Athletic, you showed why picking HS arms in the first round doesn't frequently pay off. In a class full of good college talent, how many HS pitchers do you have in your top 20?

Keith Law

2:10

Rankings? I think 1.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

Quote

Hi

2:15

If Detmers isn't available at  pick #11, who do the White Sox pivot to?

Keith Law

2:15

If he's not there someone else from the top ten is there (by definition) so they might end up with Kjerstad or Cavalli.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

Quote

JO

2:17

Speaking of Cavalli. Isn't he going to be a reliever all the way given is command issues? Do you really think he can or should go in the first round? If so Isn't it a gamble that his command will straighten up?

Keith Law

2:18

No, I do not see that at all with him. I think you overstate his command issues and underestimate the potential for an athlete like Cavalli, who was still hitting part-time last year, to improve in pro ball.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

Quote

Mike

2:20

What do you think Mick Abel and Nick Bitsko's floors are? Any chance either falls out of the top 20?

Keith Law

2:20

I wouldn't be surprised if Bitsko fell to the comp round and was paid first-round money there. It's a good outcome for him and would mean some team takes him with their second pick, mitigating their risk by presumably taking a bat or college arm with their first pick.

I think I would love for the White Sox to do something like this. Kinda fits along with Law's comment of them taking bigger risks when the opportunity cost is lower. Though Bitsko probably doesn't last til 47.

Edited June 4, 2020 by DirtySox

[bmags]

sigh, yeah I still really like Cavalli at 11. 

It's weird/fun being back by the 10/11 range, way more all over the place.

[ChiSoxJon]

17 hours ago, DirtySox said:

 

 

Could definitely get behind this...prefer him as a prospect to Bailey

Like Detmers too

[DirtySox]

Listening to Longenhagen on Fegan's podcast. Some notes.

- White Sox are in a good position to pounce on a college player that they didn't expect to be there if a team or two ahead of them does something weird. Notes Kjerstad and Detmers specifically as players that could fall into their lap. Says the Pirates are a team with a whole lot of uncertainty on their selection which could be the lynchpin to this scenario.

- Eric says he does see a possibility of the White Sox going away from the general tendencies of past drafts. But mentions it being in a similar way to last year where you get the certainty with the number one pick (Vaughn), than diversifying into the prep pool immediately after (Dalquist/Thompson). Also mentions the same Law sentiment of going risky in a spot where the opportunity cost is less.

- Notes that there are a few teams in the top ten who believe that Ed Howard has the biggest upside in the draft. Says Ed Howard at 11 would be a fine pick, and that's about where he has him on his personal board.

- Says that White Sox approach of college players early is fine, but they have been getting alot of corner guys and not much up the middle players.

- Notes that he is hearing lots of scuttlebutt on teams taking college seniors in rounds 4 and 5 at 20K to 30K in order to be able to sign prep players in rounds 2 and 3.

- Doesn't mention any of the prep bats we've been talking about.

- Mock on Monday.

Edited June 5, 2020 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

Listening to Callis on the White Sox Talk podcast.

- Mentions that right after pick 10 is where things get murky.

- Notes that even though he mocked Bailey to the Sox himself weeks ago, he thinks that the interest/preference is over blown and that he doesn't think he's going to be the pick.

- Says that there is a "persistent thought" that the Sox are in on one particular high school player, but who specifically that is, is unknown. Mentions Hassell, Hendrick, Howard, and Soderstrom. Also mentions Abel, Kelly, and Bitsko as possibilities.

- From a college standpoint he says there is an outside chance Detmers gets to them, but if not, his gut says they are going to take one of the prep players listed above.

- Callis thinks Detmers is the best player that could possibly fall to the White Sox at 11. Calls him the prototypical number 3 starter.

- Suggests Ed Howard is a valid pick at 11. Has him ranked 15th. Says he doesn't have the loud carrying tool like Witt Jr or CJ Abrams. Has him being drafted in the 17-29 range. Thinks he might be pushed down the board due to the amount of solid college pitching available.

- Says the position player he hears the most with the White Sox is Soderstrom. He thinks if they take a high school position player it will be him. Notes the history of high school catchers is bad and how often they switch off the position. Says Tyler can really really hit and is athletic. Profiles well at 3B.

- Concludes Detmers or Soderstrom as the pick at this point.

Edited June 5, 2020 by DirtySox

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

Listening to Callis on the White Sox Talk podcast.

- Mentions that right after pick 10 is where things get murky.

- Notes that even though he mocked Bailey to the Sox himself weeks ago, he thinks that the interest/preference is over blown and that he doesn't think he's going to be the pick.

- Says that there is a "persistent thought" that the Sox are in on one particular high school player, but who specifically that is, is unknown. Mentions Hassell, Hendrick, Howard, and Soderstrom. Also mentions Abel, Kelly, and Bitsko as possibilities.

- From a college standpoint he says there is an outside chance Detmers gets to them, but if not, his gut says they are going to take one of the prep players listed above.

- Callis thinks Detmers is the best player that could possibly fall to the White Sox at 11. Calls him the prototypical number 3 starter.

- Suggests Ed Howard is a valid pick at 11. Has him ranked 15th. Says he doesn't have the loud carrying tool like Witt Jr or CJ Abrams. Has him being drafted in the 17-29 range. Thinks he might be pushed down the board due to the amount of solid college pitching available.

- Says the position player he hears the most with the White Sox is Soderstrom. He thinks if they take a high school position player it will be him. Notes the history of high school catchers is bad and how often they switch off the position. Says Tyler can really really hit and is athletic. Profiles well at 3B.

- Concludes Detmers or Soderstrom as the pick at this point.

Doesn't sound like Howard is an underslot pick that some perceive him to be.

[Jerksticks]

I know you take BPA no matter what, but I really think the Sox should just take Best Pitcher Available at every pick for the next few years.  Arms arms arms.  I want to see the stables overflowing 

[Sleepy Harold]

FWIW, this staff draft has the Sox selecting Pete Crow-Armstrong & Gage Workman.

Edited June 5, 2020 by Sleepy Harold

[ptatc]

10 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

FWIW, this staff draft has the Sox selecting Pete Crow-Armstrong & Gage Workman.

Personally, I'll be stunned if they take a HS outfielder with their first pick. Pitcher or catcher I could buy more.

[DirtySox]

14 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

FWIW, this staff draft has the Sox selecting Pete Crow-Armstrong & Gage Workman.

Just for those that might not click into the article:

Quote

Keep in mind this is not a mock draft — we aren’t predicting what teams will do — but rather an experiment of how we would make picks if acting as decision-makers for various teams.

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by DirtySox

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Just for those that might not click into the article:

 

Got it. I don't have access to that site.

[Quin]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

I know you take BPA no matter what, but I really think the Sox should just take Best Pitcher Available at every pick for the next few years.  Arms arms arms.  I want to see the stables overflowing 

That's certainly one way to get 2-way players.

[Dominikk85]

New Longenhagen Chat

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-6-5-2020/