2020 MLB Draft Thread

[Boopa1219]

4 hours ago, PolishPrince34 said:

Most scouts lean on him not making it as a defensive catcher. His next best position might be 3b or LF. Sorry, but I want someone up the middle or even has a chance in RF.  Their needs to be so much development done with Soderstrom And it scares me the White Sox would be able to make him into a key asset down the road. They’ve been struggling with developing players and moving them around (Bush, Curbello, Delgado, Fisher). Yes I know Bush and Delgado are both young still, but still are miles away. I also like Hassell, PCA, and Hendricks hitting profile better than Soderstrom. I agree with Law that their needs to be some mechanical changes done to get more power in his bat. Too much work for the 11th overall pick. 

Tim Anderson and Luis Robert say hello. Also,  Soderstrom is better than Bush, Curbelo, Delgado and Fisher.

Soderstrom’s bat is so good, that it would be a waste to have him play C. Move him to the OF or 3rd and have him rake his way up. I would be surprised if he’s a fast riser. Id rather draft someone who I have to worry about power, than draft someone with a suspect hit tool and plus power. 

And of course he’s going to take some work to develop, he’s 18. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Joshua Strong

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, HollywoodTim said:

Put it this way, he's no Carlos Rodon.  And how has Rodon turned out?

I guess teams shouldn’t left-handed college arms anymore if one as highly regarded as Carlos Rodon busted.

[PolishPrince34]

16 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

Tim Anderson and Luis Robert say hello. Also,  Soderstrom is better than Bush, Curbelo, Delgado and Fisher.

Soderstrom’s bat is so good, that it would be a waste to have him play C. Move him to the OF or 3rd and have him rake his way up. I would be surprised if he’s a fast riser. Id rather draft someone who I have to worry about power, than draft someone with a suspect hit tool and plus power. 

And of course he’s going to take some work to develop, he’s 18. 

Tim Anderson and Luis Robert never learned a new position like the other 4 players I mentioned. I know Soderstrom has more talent than Bush, Curbello, Delgado, and Fisher, but they struggled defensively with the transition of learning a new position and still developing as a hitter.  I just feel their are far better safer and higher HS ceilings than Soderstrom. 

[Boopa1219]

2 minutes ago, PolishPrince34 said:

Tim Anderson and Luis Robert never learned a new position like the other 4 players I mentioned. I know Soderstrom has more talent than Bush, Curbello, Delgado, and Fisher, but they struggled defensively with the transition of learning a new position and still developing as a hitter.  I just feel their are far better safer and higher HS ceilings than Soderstrom. 

They didn't learn a new position but they were/are projects in their own right.

I'll take the guy who can rake and has a high ceiling every time

[PolishPrince34]

How would you rank the high school players in this year’s draft class? Exclude Veen because he has no chance of dropping 

Edited June 7, 2020 by PolishPrince34

[HollywoodTim]

29 minutes ago, bmags said:

Why on earth would Rodons career be a comp to Detmers other than they are left handed?

Rodon: 3+ pitches arguably 2+ and 1++. 

Detmers: nothing even close to that.

Point being, even the guys who look like true #1's sometimes are quite a bit lesser.

Put it this way, where do you think a guy like Detmers slots in your playoff rotation?

Does he slot in front of Giolito?  No.  In front of Kopech?  No.  In front of Cease if Cease figures it out?  No.  In front of Reynaldo if Reynaldo figures it out?  Not for me.  Let's say Rodon puts his injuries behind him and signs a short-term extension, however likely or unlikely that may be.  Does he then slot in front of Rodon?  Not for me.  Does he even slot in front of Dallas Keuchel?  Right now, expecting Detmers to develop into a better SP than Dallas Keuchel is right now is already enough of an expectation.

I'd much rather draft a guy that I think, if he works out, is going to slot in front at least a few of those guys.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, GGajewski18 said:

I've seen comparisons of Crochet to Sale because he's left handed and a bit of a tiny motion.  

The big difference is that Sale never had arm issues in college or ever until this year when he's 31 and was suspended at the beginning of the season for undisclosed reasons.  Major red flags.  I do not want that 11 where I see his ceiling as an Andrew Miller and a floor as out of the league in 5 years.  

Some team will take him in the 20s and have him pitch in the bullpen this year.

He always had arm issues, it was just that that White Sox did everything they could to stop them before they became serious.  The Red Sox didn't.

[HollywoodTim]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I guess teams shouldn’t left-handed college arms anymore if one as highly regarded as Carlos Rodon busted.

I think he could be a nice pick in another place in the draft order and under a different set of organizational circumstances.  Go ace SP ceiling or star-ceiling position player IMO.  I like prototypical high caliber defenders in the OF with enough projection with the bat to move to RF legitimately.  Also true CFers who actually have the body type to stick for 6+ years and enough bat to hit 6th or higher in an order.  All-around great athletes with great bats work also.

This team is going to start resorting to trades to fill holes.  If we need a decent starting C or 4th or 5th starter with some upside, we will have the pieces to trade for one.  We shouldn't try to draft that guy IMO.  Bad strategy IMO.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, GGajewski18 said:

See, I think it's the other way around.  With Crochet's injury history and not much college success, if he struggles at all, it can sink fast.  

In general, for the Sox at 11, they would take Detmers over Crochet 10 times out of 10 because his floor is higher, safer pick, and can contribute next year if everything clicks.

Everything is above average with him that can make him a good #3.

 

Says who? I think their floor is exactly the same, but for different reasons. Both have the floor of never making it to MLB. With Crochet if that happens it's due to injury . With Detmers if it happens it's due to just sucking. "Safe" players are not actually that safe, in fact I'd argue that those players are actually the most risky of them all. I view baseball scouting through the lens of ceiling as the most important aspect. You draft the guy with the highest ceiling, period. What I've learned about "high floor" prospects in a baseball, is that the same things that make them look "safe" are the exact things that prevent them from ever making the majors or being successful once they get there. 

This isn't the case with other sports, but in baseball it's all about the ceiling. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[bmags]

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

Comps in draft talk are the worst.

Amen.

[bmags]

35 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

Rodon: 3+ pitches arguably 2+ and 1++. 

Detmers: nothing even close to that.

Point being, even the guys who look like true #1's sometimes are quite a bit lesser.

Put it this way, where do you think a guy like Detmers slots in your playoff rotation?

Does he slot in front of Giolito?  No.  In front of Kopech?  No.  In front of Cease if Cease figures it out?  No.  In front of Reynaldo if Reynaldo figures it out?  Not for me.  Let's say Rodon puts his injuries behind him and signs a short-term extension, however likely or unlikely that may be.  Does he then slot in front of Rodon?  Not for me.  Does he even slot in front of Dallas Keuchel?  Right now, expecting Detmers to develop into a better SP than Dallas Keuchel is right now is already enough of an expectation.

I'd much rather draft a guy that I think, if he works out, is going to slot in front at least a few of those guys.

And sometimes guys that look like true #3/4s turn out like number 1s. 
 

This is the same convo people had about Aaron Nola. The pitcher that will pitch on the majors will not look exactly like the one that was drafted. But he has great command, a great pitch, and good feel to pitch. And he’s a lefty. That tends to overperform.

[bmags]

40 minutes ago, PolishPrince34 said:

How would you rank the high school players in this year’s draft class? Exclude Veen because he has no chance of dropping 

I extremely still don’t know.

I still like Abel a lot and believe in Howard.

Cant make up my mind on Soderstrom after Laws take, and am now higher on PCA.

Not a fan of 19 year old picks, and then don’t know what to make of Bitsko/Hassel

[Dominikk85]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

And sometimes guys that look like true #3/4s turn out like number 1s. 
 

This is the same convo people had about Aaron Nola. The pitcher that will pitch on the majors will not look exactly like the one that was drafted. But he has great command, a great pitch, and good feel to pitch. And he’s a lefty. That tends to overperform.

Usually that comes with a velo bump. Shane bieber was like that, polished guy with great control and all of a sudden he threw 94 instead of 90 and became a star. Nola also increased his velo.

I think you can only take detmers there if you believe he has more velo in the tank. If he could add 2-3 mph with stuff like weighted balls (not sure if sox pitching dev does driveline) he could be a different guy. But if he sticks at low 90s or even regresses a little which sometimes happens under the tougher pro schedule it could also just be a 5 or even long relief.

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

And sometimes guys that look like true #3/4s turn out like number 1s. 
 

This is the same convo people had about Aaron Nola. The pitcher that will pitch on the majors will not look exactly like the one that was drafted. But he has great command, a great pitch, and good feel to pitch. And he’s a lefty. That tends to overperform.

Yeah, but Nola took a jump in FB velocity in the pros that is very rare from a college pitcher. 

He went from averaging under 92 to averaging over 93. That's a huge difference. Nola wasn't topping out at 96 mph like he is now. He was topping out at 94 on his good days at LSU. 

Quit pointing to Aaron Nola. He's the exception, not the rule. 

Fulmer is the counter-argument. Was topping out at 98 mph in NCAA, started working every 5th day and now he averages 93 and tops out at 95. Everything took a step backward for Fulmer as a pro. That's something that you just don't anticipate, and you can't really blame the Sox for it. One of those shit happens type things. Watching Fulmer at Vandy, it was really easy to see why the Sox loved him. Watching him as a pro, it's really easy to see why he sucks. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Dominikk85 said:

Usually that comes with a velo bump. Shane bieber was like that, polished guy with great control and all of a sudden he threw 94 instead of 90 and became a star. Nola also increased his velo.

I think you can only take detmers there if you believe he has more velo in the tank. If he could add 2-3 mph with stuff like weighted balls (not sure if sox pitching dev does driveline) he could be a different guy. But if he sticks at low 90s or even regresses a little which sometimes happens under the tougher pro schedule it could also just be a 5 or even long relief.

Bingo. Nice post. 

[Quin]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, but Nola took a jump in FB velocity in the pros that is very rare from a college pitcher. 

He went from averaging under 92 to averaging over 93. That's a huge difference. Nola wasn't topping out at 96 mph like he is now. He was topping out at 94 on his good days at LSU. 

Quit pointing to Aaron Nola. He's the exception, not the rule. 

Fulmer is the counter-argument. Was topping out at 98 mph in NCAA, started working every 5th day and now he averages 93 and tops out at 95. Everything took a step backward for Fulmer as a pro. That's something that you just don't anticipate, and you can't really blame the Sox for it. One of those shit happens type things. 

Projecting Detmers = Nola is a lot easier comp than Crochet = Sale, even at the time of the draft.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Quin said:

Projecting Detmers = Nola is a lot easier comp than Crochet = Sale, even at the time of the draft.

Not to me. That's not to say that Crochet can't take a step back in velocity/stuff when he turns pro. It's the biggest wild card with amateur pitching. 

A lot of the same concerns that people had about Sale in 2010 they have about Crochet this year. The huge difference is that Crochet has actually had injury issues, where Sale hadn't. It's absolutely a legit difference and concern. 

The bottom line is if they take either guy I'll hope for the best. If Crochet sticks as a starter though, he's got a much higher ceiling. The only thing that would force him into the bullpen is health. 

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[bmags]

All aces are the exception not the rule.

 

Of course there are 100 more examples of those that took a step back compared with to those that took a step forward, that’s baseball.

 

But Nola was a good pitcher before he was a great pitcher. Curiously don’t remember people raving how he’s likely to add velo...almost like you can’t guess.

 

Detmers has a good set of skills to build off of. If he takes a step back he’s in trouble, welcome to every prospect.

 

 

[Quin]

39 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not to me. That's not to say that Crochet can't take a step back in velocity/stuff when he turns pro. It's the biggest wild card with amateur pitching. 

A lot of the same concerns that people had about Sale in 2010 they have about Crochet this year. The huge difference is that Crochet has actually had injury issues, where Sale hadn't. It's absolutely a legit difference and concern. 

The bottom line is if they take either guy I'll hope for the best. If Crochet sticks as a starter though, he's got a much higher ceiling. The only thing that would force him into the bullpen is health. 

 

Sale was projected at #4, he fell to the Sox through luck.

Crochet is projected in the back half of the first.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Fulmer is the counter-argument. Was topping out at 98 mph in NCAA, started working every 5th day and now he averages 93 and tops out at 95. Everything took a step backward for Fulmer as a pro. That's something that you just don't anticipate, and you can't really blame the Sox for it. One of those shit happens type things. Watching Fulmer at Vandy, it was really easy to see why the Sox loved him. Watching him as a pro, it's really easy to see why he sucks. 

There's an awful lot you can blame the White Sox for with Fulmer. Changing up his delivery in his first full season, calling him up from AA to the big leagues to save the collapsing 2016 bullpen when he wasn't comfortable or adapted to that new delivery, needed reps as a starter, and had an ERA over 5 are at the top of the list.

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There's an awful lot you can blame the White Sox for with Fulmer. Changing up his delivery in his first full season, calling him up from AA to the big leagues to save the collapsing 2016 bullpen when he wasn't comfortable or adapted to that new delivery, needed reps as a starter, and had an ERA over 5 are at the top of the list.

Crap I forgot about that. If they changed his delivery, then that explains the stuff taking a step backwards. 

I'm a big fan of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" with pitchers. I might think that it needs to be fixed, but until they prove it through underperformance, I wouldn't touch a thing and let the guy do what got him drafted/to the big leagues until it has proven that it's not working. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[HollywoodTim]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

Sale was projected at #4, he fell to the Sox through luck.

Crochet is projected in the back half of the first.

"Luck"?  Did he also fall on Keith Law's draft board due to "luck?"

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

"Luck"?  Did he also fall on Keith Law's draft board due to "luck?"

He was the consensus #5, Keith Law had him #47. So yes, it was luck that he was at #13.

So, I'd say that was more bad analysis on Law's part, which is fine, because drafts an an an inexact science.

[HollywoodTim]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

All aces are the exception not the rule.

 

Of course there are 100 more examples of those that took a step back compared with to those that took a step forward, that’s baseball.

 

But Nola was a good pitcher before he was a great pitcher. Curiously don’t remember people raving how he’s likely to add velo...almost like you can’t guess.

 

Detmers has a good set of skills to build off of. If he takes a step back he’s in trouble, welcome to every prospect.

 

 

I think he's a great fit for a team like the Cubs or Cardinals, etc.  Get a safer bet, someone you can slot into Opening Day 2022 rotation probably or not far from it, someone to fit in the middle of a rotation for a team trying to more like "tread water-contend" vs. "flash dominate" contend as we will be trying to do, e.g. run out a bunch of developed top prospects in pre-arb and arb stage to try to win a title for a few short years before they start getting expensive and you have to scale back to being one of those mid-level "meh"ish playoff teams for a few years.  

Also maybe a great fit if it's like the Royals with Brady Singer where you have a bunch of picks and you're taking a mix of floor and ceiling, and you're picking up what appears to be BPA after he's already fallen in your lap.

I really would hate the pick because it feels ball-less.  

For the record I wanted Rodon > Guy the Marlins took who busted > lefty who busted > maybe other players > Nola.  But I was concerned about Rodon also because of the Boras factor and all the arb and FA issues that could result if he works out as advertised.  In general though I think it's more likely that the Crochets of the world become 10+million dollar "difference makers" than the Nola types turn into Nolas.  Lance Broadway was kind of that way.  Nola had better stuff but Broadway was supposed to be a solid #3/#4 who would come quick due to make up etc.

[HollywoodTim]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

He was the consensus #5, Keith Law had him #47. So yes, it was luck that he was at #13.

So, I'd say that was more bad analysis on Law's part, which is fine, because drafts an an an inexact science.

I think if it was the old system and both Sale and Crochet were INTL FAs from Latin America, they would both get really big bonuses because there would be teams not afraid to lose money when gambling on an arm even with injury fears.  Look at all the concerns about Tanaka and how much money was thrown at him.  But with draft picks teams are more afraid.  I think it's fear, not luck, and that if we are lucky, then we are lucky others were afraid.  At #13 we would have felt a lot less pressure.