2020 MLB Draft Thread

[DirtySox]

BA's mock through 11 that went up earlier today. Detmers goes 12th to Cinci if anyone was wondering.

Quote

1.) DET - Torkelson

2.) BAL - Martin

3.) MIA - Lacy

4.) KC - Veen

5.) TOR - Meyer

6.) SEA - Hancock

7.) PIT - Gonzales

8.) SD - Hassell

9.) COL - Soderstrom

10.) LAA - Kjerstad

11.) CHW - Abel

Notes:

This pick is tricky. Chicago has been connected to Tennessee LHP Garrett Crochet, Detmers and North Carolina State catcher Patrick Bailey—the typical collegiate suspects for the White Sox. However the noise with Mick Abel has been significant enough that we think it’s legit and with a new scouting director in Chicago there’s no guarantee the team continues to heavily target college players. Still, it’s worth noting that Mike Shirley has been with the club in a high-level role going back to 2010.

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by DirtySox

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I guess. Taking upside guys with flaws doesn't define "safe" for me. Safe is guys with few flaws but minimal high end talent. Floor vs. ceiling guys.

I don't see those guys as "safe." Poreda/Fields/Mitchell were unnecessarily risky picks, because they refused to pay players with a high ceiling and a higher floor. 

It's not necessarily a ceiling/floor thing, as much as a ceiling/floor combo thing. 

 

I'm on Crochet because I think that at #11, the ceiling/floor combo is enough to take that risk. I think that he's at least a Hader/Miller type if he stays healthy, and if everything goes right you have Chris Sale. 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't see those guys as "safe." Poreda/Fields/Mitchell were unnecessarily risky picks, because they refused to pay players with a high ceiling and a higher floor. 

But those are the guys with the high ceiling. Fields had big power. Poreda had electric stuff. Mitchell had awesome athleticism.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't see those guys as "safe." Poreda/Fields/Mitchell were unnecessarily risky picks, because they refused to pay players with a high ceiling and a higher floor. 

It's not necessarily a ceiling/floor thing, as much as a ceiling/floor combo thing. 

Guys with high floors and high ceilings are #1 draft picks.  There aren't many of those players at all in a draft.  There might be a few, tops.  That is why they go off of the board so quickly.  In the draft you are going to choose between more developed and limited ceilings versus lesser developed and higher ceilings.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

But those are the guys with the high ceiling. Fields had big power. Poreda had electric stuff. Mitchell had awesome athleticism.

It's not about only ceiling or only floor. It's about the combination of both. The gap becomes higher after the top 5, but it still exists. 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

It's not about only ceiling or only floor. It's about the combination of both. 

Of course but these players were all drafted between 25-29. You are talking about a high ceiling high risk player today at 11. When they were drafting in the high 20's there aren't many players that fit your description. There aren't many players that fit your description in the high 20's.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Of course but these players were all drafted between 25-29. You are talking about a high ceiling high risk player today at 11. When they were drafting in the high 20's there aren't many players that fit your description. There aren't many players that fit your description in the high 20's.

Let's just put it this way, it's about the ceiling/floor gap....I'm pretty much done because it's hard to explain and I'm at a loss for an explanation. 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Let's just put it this way, it's about the ceiling/floor gap. 

Of course it is. That gap is narrower at the top of the draft but is significantly wider at the end of the first round. By the time you get to the end of the first round, I would take the higher ceiling vs. the higher floor. Some years the Sox did that, other years they took the higher floor.

Edited June 10, 2020 by ptatc

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

12 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

BA's mock through 11 that went up earlier today. Detmers goes 12th to Cinci if anyone was wondering.

 

Interesting they have us going Abel EVEN IF Detmers is available.  I am super happy with either.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Let's just put it this way, it's about the ceiling/floor gap. 

Guys with no gap are either no ceiling high floor guys, or they are #1 picks.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Guys with no gap are either no ceiling high floor guys, or they are #1 picks.

Right. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Of course it is. That gap is narrower at the top of the draft but is significantly wider at the end of the first round. 

We're in agreement here...where your scouts have to do their work is to find the guys with a higher ceiling that also have a higher floor, relative to picks between 11-20, 20-30, etc. It's all relative. 

[HollywoodTim]

Poreda just had a big fastball.  I don't ever remember anything at all about a plus slider and I can't find a record of it online.  He was big fastball and that's all people talkied about, supposedly with the beginnings of a feel for a changeup which never turned into anything.  Maybe his slider developed more in the minors.

Poreda had size, strength, left-handedness and a big fastball.  He was a longshot project at best if he was ever thought of as a SP.  It was a safe pick also because there was a downside (and really ceiling) of MLB late inning reliever.

I don't think Crochet is very risky as far as prospects go.  Health and control are risks for most players, but his floor is as a very useful player and the timeline on him could be pretty quick.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Right. 

They players you mentioned are neither. They were high ceiling, high risk players that you find at the bottom of the first round.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

We're in agreement here...where your scouts have to do their work is to find the guys with a higher ceiling that also have a higher floor, relative to picks between 11-20, 20-30, etc. It's all relative. 

That would be nice. Unfortunately, those guys don't exist toward the end of the first round. Players always surprise in the minors but for drafting it just isn't feasible.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

12 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

Poreda just had a big fastball.  I don't ever remember anything at all about a plus slider and I can't find a record of it online.  He was big fastball and that's all people talkied about, supposedly with the beginnings of a feel for a changeup which never turned into anything.  Maybe his slider developed more in the minors.

Poreda had size, strength, left-handedness and a big fastball.  He was a longshot project at best if he was ever thought of as a SP.  It was a safe pick also because there was a downside (and really ceiling) of MLB late inning reliever.

I don't think Crochet is very risky as far as prospects go.  Health and control are risks for most players, but his floor is as a very useful player and the timeline on him could be pretty quick.

I mean, his floor is low and his ceiling his high.. You can't call him a high floor player AT ALL when he wasn't even very successful in college

[ptatc]

16 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

Poreda just had a big fastball.  I don't ever remember anything at all about a plus slider and I can't find a record of it online.  He was big fastball and that's all people talkied about, supposedly with the beginnings of a feel for a changeup which never turned into anything.  Maybe his slider developed more in the minors.

Poreda had size, strength, left-handedness and a big fastball.  He was a longshot project at best if he was ever thought of as a SP.  It was a safe pick also because there was a downside (and really ceiling) of MLB late inning reliever.

I don't think Crochet is very risky as far as prospects go.  Health and control are risks for most players, but his floor is as a very useful player and the timeline on him could be pretty quick.

There are some significant risk factors for health in pitchers. #1 is previous missed time due to an injury. #2 is consistent velocity #3 is mechanics. He unfortunately has all 3. Not to say he will be injured as it's impossible to exactly predict it but he does have a higher risk than most.

[hi8is]

Abel Abel and more Abel for me please. Prefer him to Crochet at least but I do believe in Crochet’s floor being Andrew Miller II.

[hi8is]

Tell me this doesn’t get the juices flowing...

 

Add in a 96+ MPH fastball that’s still gaining velo and wow.

[bmags]

For me with crochet, probably making a mistake but just seems like recent pitchers like him (Pearson, mclanahan) big dudes, big arms, questionable production or competition, have overperformed recently. 
 

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

13 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Tell me this doesn’t get the juices flowing...

 

Add in a 96+ MPH fastball that’s still gaining velo and wow.

This has convinced me... Abel > Detmers!

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

For me with crochet, probably making a mistake but just seems like recent pitchers like him (Pearson, mclanahan) big dudes, big arms, questionable production or competition, have overperformed recently. 
 

 

That "sinker" is like an insane screwball..

[bmags]

Man I think BA May have nailed their mock. 
 

so many picks make sense, and Howard to the Dodgers makes you gulp hard.

Love the BA dudes even though they overrate heady college players

[raBBit]

We pick #11. In my opinion (and in no particular order), there is no chance the 6 players below get to us. I'll throw Hancock as #7 even though he could be a guy who conceivably slips.

From there, we just have to rank our top 4 players left. So I am basically hoping for Detmers but each of the last few days it seems less and less likely. Past him, Abel's upside is tantalizing and he could  possibly be underslot so that'd be my fallback. If Detmers & Abel go in the top 10 I get less excited about our pick. 

1. Tork 2. Martin 3. Lacy 4. Gonzalez 5. Veen 6. Meyer 7. Hancock

1. Detmers 2. Abel 3. Hassell 4. Kjersted.

Edited June 10, 2020 by raBBit

[HollywoodTim]

48 minutes ago, ptatc said:

There are some significant risk factors for health in pitchers. #1 is previous missed time due to an injury. #2 is consistent velocity #3 is mechanics. He unfortunately has all 3. Not to say he will be injured as it's impossible to exactly predict it but he does have a higher risk than most.

Do you remember what your thoughts at the time were on Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, and Brady AIken?  Obviously we all know how they have turned out.  Aiken was supposedly the safest given the mileage on Rodon's arm yet he's an unquestionable bust.  And Sale had one of the best runs of any pitcher in MLB history before TJ, and there really isn't any reason to believe he's done.