Acceptable Strikeout Rate

[KnightsOnMintSt]

Random topic here, but what is considered a normal acceptable strikeout rate. 

Like, let’s say a player has a .315 batting average, .350 OBP and a .850 OPS. Would a 40% strikeout rate be acceptable if those other numbers were that high?

[ron883]

That player would be carrying an unreal babip around .500. I'd imagine he hits the ball harder than any other players and with not much launch. Wouldn't happen, but obviously acceptable.

Edited April 19, 2019 by ron883

[KnightsOnMintSt]

5 minutes ago, ron883 said:

That player would be carrying an unreal babip around .500. I'd imagine he hits the ball harder than any other players and with not much launch. Wouldn't happen, but obviously acceptable.

I guess my bigger overall point/question is does strikeout rate ultimately matter? Or is that statistic kind of irrelevant if you put up good average, OBP, OPS, etc...?

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

I guess my bigger overall point/question is does strikeout rate ultimately matter? Or is that statistic kind of irrelevant if you put up good average, OBP, OPS, etc...?

It's more relevant for prospects and young hitters at the MLB level who haven't established themselves yet. 

Once a hitter establishes their OPS and OBP track record at the MLB level it doesn't really matter again until they reach age 31-33 or older, after which it could be a sign of impending decline. 

Strikeout rate is a huge deal for pitchers every season, but I'm assuming you're not asking about pitchers. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jose Abreu]

38 minutes ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

I guess my bigger overall point/question is does strikeout rate ultimately matter? Or is that statistic kind of irrelevant if you put up good average, OBP, OPS, etc...?

Definitely irrelevant if OBP/OPS/wRC+/wOBA, whatever you want to use, is good. Joey Gallo, for example, has a career .822 OPS but a 38% strikeout rate. He is a valuable batter because of the good OPS. 

[daggins]

It depends on the hitter, but a 40% K rate is basically untenable for a major leaguer. Anything north of 30% is suspect but an extreme player like Gallo can make it work. The ability to draw walks and hit for big power mitigates some of the unproductive outs.

[The Sir]

I'll use this thread to plug my comp tool again! Plug in PAs, number of each type of hit, BB-rate, and K-rate. It then does everything else automatically, including slash line and BABIP. This particular edition tracks what happens to someone with Moncada's numbers from last year as you drop nothing but the K-rate (player A is 2018 Moncada exactly, B drops K-rate to 25%, C to 20%, and D to 16%). The only change I made to B, C, and D is to adjust singles to maintain BABIP at .341, which was Moncada's last year (so I'm actually underestimating the improvement, since it's unlikely that the only thing a given player would do with increased contact is hit singles, and nary an XBH).

Anyways, a player who improves his K-rate from an abysmal 33% to a respectable 16%, and maintains everything else, even with ZERO improvement in power, increases his OPS by .124.

K-rate matters.

Player Comp.xlsx

[mqr]

The real problem with super high K rates is that they make it super difficult to be productive. If you manage to be productive in spite of that than it doesn't matter at all. You will still want to lower the K rate but you'd be fine if you didn't. 

It'd be perfectly fine if you were a super hero who struck out 60% of the time, but managed to have an impossible BABIP

[Texsox]

There are all sorts of successful players with those strikeout rates. They are called NL pitchers (when batting) which is yet another reason I'm glad to be a Sox fan. 

 

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

Idk what his k rate was, but I know Mike Trout led the league in strike outs one year. Pretty sure it was an MVP season as well. 

 

 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, 2nd_city_saint787 said:

Idk what his k rate was, but I know Mike Trout led the league in strike outs one year. Pretty sure it was an MVP season as well. 

 

 

Led the AL in total Ks with 186 in 2014 but was a decent 26% strikeout rate. Shows how much more Ks are occurring 5 years later.

[Dominikk85]

On 4/19/2019 at 3:17 AM, KnightsOnMintSt said:

Random topic here, but what is considered a normal acceptable strikeout rate. 

Like, let’s say a player has a .315 batting average, .350 OBP and a .850 OPS. Would a 40% strikeout rate be acceptable if those other numbers were that high?

K rate basically doesn't matter, a K is just an out. However more Ks mean you need to produce more with the remaining batted balls because a K is not only a missed chance for a groundout but also for a single, double, walk or homer.

League average K rate is a little over 20% in these days but 30% can work too if you hit 35 homers.

I developed a formula using K, BB rate and ISO to judge players.

https://community.fangraphs.com/introducing-k-bb-iso/

Basically it means the higher your iso and walk rate is the more Ks you can afford. Lower to medium powered guys with a sub 170 iso better have a K-bb rate of under 12 or so while guys with a 250 iso can be productive with a high teens % K-bb.

Above 20% it is getting tricky unless you have true 80 grade game power, in that case even 30 homers might not be enough to be a much about league average hitter.