Do you look at Jose Abreu at "32" the same way you looked at Paul Konerko at 34?

[Greg Hibbard]

Let's say Abreu is 2 years older than listed (although there's nothing to prove that).

When Konerko hit FA as a 34 year old slow first baseman, did you want to renew him? as it because he had a breakout year in 2010 where he had one of the highest WARs of his career? Did you even think he could possibly replicate that?

Was it simply because "world series"/intangible things?

Did you want him to retire a White Sox, having played almost all of his games here? 

The sentiment with Abreu seems to be much that he's more disposable. Either flip him for value or don't re-sign him. The sentiment seems to be that he MUST be declining, even though we all know he was dinged up last year.

Konerko was a career 27.7 WAR player over 18 seasons. Abreu is a 19.4 over 5+ seasons.

If he has a .850 OPS / 3.0 WAR year, should we keep him?

Btw I'm one of the ones who generally thinks we should NOT keep him but I'm wondering why I felt differently about Konerko in 2010.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Greg Hibbard

[Bob Sacamano]

9 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Let's say Abreu is 2 years older than listed (although there's nothing to prove that).

When Konerko hit FA as a 34 year old slow first baseman, did you want to renew him? as it because he had a breakout year in 2010 where he had one of the highest WARs of his career? Did you even think he could possibly replicate that?

Was it simply because "world series"/intangible things?

Did you want him to retire a White Sox, having played almost all of his games here? 

The sentiment with Abreu seems to be much that he's more disposable. Either flip him for value or don't re-sign him. The sentiment seems to be that he MUST be declining, even though we all know he was dinged up last year.

Konerko was a career 27.7 WAR player over 18 seasons. Abreu is a 19.4 over 5+ seasons.

If he has a .850 OPS / 3.0 WAR year, should we keep him?

Btw I'm one of the ones who generally thinks we should NOT keep him but I'm wondering why I felt differently about Konerko in 2010.

Nothing come up in the minors to replace Paulie. Possible logjam of corner infielder/DH types in the near future.

[Greg Hibbard]

10 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Nothing come up in the minors to replace Paulie. Possible logjam of corner infielder/DH types in the near future.

Jeremy Reed?

Dayan Viciedo?

[Greg Hibbard]

LOL I guess Jeremy Reed was a flat out bust out at that point.

[Quin]

16 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Let's say Abreu is 2 years older than listed (although there's nothing to prove that).

When Konerko hit FA as a 34 year old slow first baseman, did you want to renew him? as it because he had a breakout year in 2010 where he had one of the highest WARs of his career? Did you even think he could possibly replicate that?

Was it simply because "world series"/intangible things?

Did you want him to retire a White Sox, having played almost all of his games here? 

The sentiment with Abreu seems to be much that he's more disposable. Either flip him for value or don't re-sign him. The sentiment seems to be that he MUST be declining, even though we all know he was dinged up last year.

Konerko was a career 27.7 WAR player over 18 seasons. Abreu is a 19.4 over 5+ seasons.

If he has a .850 OPS / 3.0 WAR year, should we keep him?

Btw I'm one of the ones who generally thinks we should NOT keep him but I'm wondering why I felt differently about Konerko in 2010.

Then lets not say that, because that's a very tired trope. There are American athletes who lie about their age - Shabazz Muhammad, Tom Shaw. 

International athletes who lie about their age tend to be little known prospects try to fib a bit to try and get a better life. Not the premier hitter for the Cuban national team ready for a massive payday.

[bmags]

The aging curve was much more forgiving the decade before, so it didn't seem that scary. When you had a bunch of guys in their mid thirties at the top of their game, it's not that big a stretch to see Konerko still there.

 

[OneDog847]

33 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Let's say Abreu is 2 years older than listed (although there's nothing to prove that).

When Konerko hit FA as a 34 year old slow first baseman, did you want to renew him? as it because he had a breakout year in 2010 where he had one of the highest WARs of his career? Did you even think he could possibly replicate that?

Was it simply because "world series"/intangible things?

Did you want him to retire a White Sox, having played almost all of his games here? 

The sentiment with Abreu seems to be much that he's more disposable. Either flip him for value or don't re-sign him. The sentiment seems to be that he MUST be declining, even though we all know he was dinged up last year.

Konerko was a career 27.7 WAR player over 18 seasons. Abreu is a 19.4 over 5+ seasons.

If he has a .850 OPS / 3.0 WAR year, should we keep him?

Btw I'm one of the ones who generally thinks we should NOT keep him but I'm wondering why I felt differently about Konerko in 2010.

Yep. Paulie helped bring a World Series Championshipto the South Side and a monument outside the Stadium. The Sox have never been good with Jose on the team. That isn't all on Jose but everyone remembers a winner and flags fly forever. 

[Colinski]

34 minutes ago, bmags said:

The aging curve was much more forgiving the decade before, so it didn't seem that scary. When you had a bunch of guys in their mid thirties at the top of their game, it's not that big a stretch to see Konerko still there.

 

This is the key point for me. Players are peaking earlier than ever and regressing earlier. You don’t see many age 35+ hitters still doing the business. You defo did in early/mid 2000s. 

Its simply I think Abreu will regress quicker. Having said that if he does have a 3 war season I would re-sign him, but more due to a thin free agent market elsewhere. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by Colinski

[Bob Sacamano]

40 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Jeremy Reed?

Dayan Viciedo?

Yeah Reed was traded like 6 years before the year you listed (2010).

[ron883]

@greg775 this seems like a topic where you would like to provide input

[Jack Parkman]

Older hitters are regressing earlier because pitchers are pitching at peak velocity. The average fastball is just under 93 mph and has hovered between 92.5 and 93.1mph over the last few seasons. As a hitter ages, it gets harder to catch up with these fastballs. In 2010 the average fastball was just under 91 mph. Huge difference. 

Edited May 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, ron883 said:

@greg775 this seems like a topic where you would like to provide input

Funny. I thought the same about you.

[bmags]

Also...man Paulie's 2010-2012 seasons were good. That 2010 team was so fun despite not making the playoffs and Manny Ramirez being on them.

[greg775]

17 minutes ago, ron883 said:

@greg775 this seems like a topic where you would like to provide input

I was getting around to it. Sometimes I wonder if posters want to hear my opinion if they've heard it before so I try to stifle. Thing is, I never know if anybody reads what I say since I am pretty much despised so it's tough for me to make a call on whether I should post or not.

As far as Abreu, I feel the same way about him as Paulie: In my mind, both are lifetime White Sox. I want to keep Jose all the way til he can't hit anymore. I felt the same way about Paulie. It's not Jose's fault that the team has been abysmal with him on the team. Jose like Paulie has proven himself to me, thus I would never want him to be traded. I want him to retire a White Sox just as I did Paulie. BTW there's nobody else on our team I feel fan loyalty to at this point. That's kind of sad the team is at the point almost everybody has to prove themselves. We used to have a few veterans.

Summary: Paulie A-plus career in my mind; Abreu B-plus career in my mind but I love both equally and do not wanna see Abreu play elsewhere.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

50 minutes ago, bmags said:

Also...man Paulie's 2010-2012 seasons were good. That 2010 team was so fun despite not making the playoffs and Manny Ramirez being on them.

Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, and Manny Ramirez were all on that 2010 team for a brief period of time. Those were the days.

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Older hitters are regressing earlier because pitchers are pitching at peak velocity. The average fastball is around just under 93 mph and has hovered between 92.5 and 93.1mph over the last few seasons. As a hitter ages, it gets harder to catch up with these fastballs. In 2010 the average fastball was just under 91 mph. Huge difference. 

That's what I have always thought. You have to be able to hit gas. Guys used to be able to get away with slider speed bats. The one thing Paulie could always do was turnaround major gas. He was hitting .400 and had some issue with his wrist, and then became old fast.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, and Manny Ramirez were all on that 2010 team for a brief period of time. Those were the days.

But Jones was really good!

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

That's what I have always thought. You have to be able to hit gas. Guys used to be able to get away with slider speed bats. The one thing Paulie could always do was turnaround major gas. He was hitting .400 and had some issue with his wrist, and then became old fast.

I didn't want to point this out until his numbers partially stabilized, but now his overall numbers look good but against the fastball 2019 Abreu is right on the path of 2018 Abreu. Here's, per 100 pitches, runs created against 4 seam fastballs.

Season     wFB/C

2014     2.55

2015     1.42

2016     1.04

2017     0.95

2018     0.47

2019     0.28

[ron883]

3 hours ago, greg775 said:

I was getting around to it. Sometimes I wonder if posters want to hear my opinion if they've heard it before so I try to stifle. Thing is, I never know if anybody reads what I say since I am pretty much despised so it's tough for me to make a call on whether I should post or not.

As far as Abreu, I feel the same way about him as Paulie: In my mind, both are lifetime White Sox. I want to keep Jose all the way til he can't hit anymore. I felt the same way about Paulie. It's not Jose's fault that the team has been abysmal with him on the team. Jose like Paulie has proven himself to me, thus I would never want him to be traded. I want him to retire a White Sox just as I did Paulie. BTW there's nobody else on our team I feel fan loyalty to at this point. That's kind of sad the team is at the point almost everybody has to prove themselves. We used to have a few veterans.

Summary: Paulie A-plus career in my mind; Abreu B-plus career in my mind but I love both equally and do not wanna see Abreu play elsewhere.

I don't despise you. I'm team Greg, despite our differing opinions on Abreu

Edited April 30, 2019 by ron883

[poppysox]

We sure love having a lot of DH types.  People want Collins to DH and draft Vaughn.  They want Abreu & Jimenez to DH and it would be great to pickup JD Martinez.  I like Abreu and have no problem with a 2 or 3 year extension at a fair rate.  But if that blocks some of these other guys it doesn't make sense.  If at the end of the day we need to trade Abreu I would rather do it a year early rather than a year to late.  FWIW most of us were delighted when Konerko's last couple of years ended.  They were painful to watch and tarnished an otherwise great career.  These guys should not hang on until the fans don't remember the good times.  No one should have a job for as long as they want.  These are multi millionaires and they need to produce to earn these salaries.  Times change.

[BackDoorBreach]

It would be pointless and a waste to resign him. 

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

It would be pointless and a waste to resign him. 

Completely agreed, which is why it would be smart GMing to trade him in June or July 

[Bob Sacamano]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Completely agreed, which is why it would be smart GMing to trade him in June or July 

Honestly no one is going to give up much for him.

[greg775]

4 hours ago, ron883 said:

I don't despise you. I'm team Greg, despite our differing opinions on Abreu

Thank you sir. I like this post.

[greg775]

4 hours ago, poppysox said:

We sure love having a lot of DH types.  People want Collins to DH and draft Vaughn.  They want Abreu & Jimenez to DH and it would be great to pickup JD Martinez.  I like Abreu and have no problem with a 2 or 3 year extension at a fair rate.  But if that blocks some of these other guys it doesn't make sense.  If at the end of the day we need to trade Abreu I would rather do it a year early rather than a year to late.  FWIW most of us were delighted when Konerko's last couple of years ended.  They were painful to watch and tarnished an otherwise great career.  These guys should not hang on until the fans don't remember the good times.  No one should have a job for as long as they want.  These are multi millionaires and they need to produce to earn these salaries.  Times change.

You are right. Eloy blows in left so he's the DH now; Abreu is moderately lousy at first so he's a DH; Yonder Alonso is a DH; Avi was our DH cause he stunk in right; Burger is gonna be DH cause he's chubby and not a great fielder and we already have a 3B; Collins is gonna be a DH. So many Dhs.