Rodon to IL; Giolito activated

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I'd be seriously tempted, assuming surgery. With normal raises they'll pay him $14 million the next 2 years, give or take a million or so. They are very unlikely to recoup that money. Almost all of 2020 will be lost on rehab, and 2021 you'll have a guy coming back from multiple arm injuries who would need to be a middle of the rotation pitcher to be worth it, and the guy hasn't even been a back of the rotation quality pitcher since 2016. That's 4 years since he was worth anything. No one would pay $14 million for Rodon as a free agent after 2020.

People want money for Keuchel? There's the money for a season of him.

Rodon has zero leverage though.  He's making $4.2M this season.  Sox offer him a 1 year deal $4.5M for 2020.  I'd be shocked if he rejected it.  No one is going to pay him more than that on the FA market as a SP coming off TJS and a should surgery a year prior.  

And I personally don't want Keuchel. 

[mqr]

Kopech already throwing seems like a good sign. That guy is a freak. 

[ChiSox59]

31 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I can't see Boras doing this with us, at least not in advance, but what would likely happen this offseason if he were non-tendered is that he'd sign with someone on the equivalent of a 2 year deal (maybe somehow the 2nd year is an option?) worth something like $1-2 million a year, with some 2021 performance bonuses based on innings pitched or something like that. That way he can do his rehab next year, throw some minor league innings, maybe if everything goes perfectly he contributes to someone's bullpen in September, and then both sides get an opportunity in 2021.

Personally if I were him I'd go to a team like Houston or Tampa Bay, someone with a recent reputation for unlocking pitchers with good stuff.

Why would he take this over signing a 1 year deal with the Sox in 2020 with a slight raise on his $4.2M 2019 salary? 

[ChiSox59]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have no idea what Reinsdorf has to do with Cease starting the season in the minors.  I’d wager large sums of money that not a single GM would have started the season with Cease in their opening day roster given our current situation.  It would have been a damn right fireable offense unless he agreed to extension beforehand.  That being said, Dylan will likely be up by sometime in June if not sooner.

I am sorry, but the people banging the Cease drum super hard right now are clueless.  Plus, as you said, he's going to be up soon.  He's not wasting away in the minors.    

Edited May 3, 2019 by ChiSox59

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Rodon has zero leverage though.  He's making $4.2M this season.  Sox offer him a 1 year deal $4.5M for 2020.  I'd be shocked if he rejected it.  No one is going to pay him more than that on the FA market as a SP coming off TJS and a should surgery a year prior.  

And I personally don't want Keuchel. 

Well yeah, but why would the White Sox offer him that? Assuming surgery, that's a lot more than he'll get paid on the FA market, the costs of keeping him in 2021 would be a lot higher than that because we'd have to offer him final year arbitration dollars after him barely pitching at all in 2020 - so basically you're paying him $4.5 million in 2020 and >that amount in 2021 to hold onto him in arbitration, and he costs us a 40 man roster slot in December both years and thus we lose someone else/have to clear a spot for them. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Why would he take this over signing a 1 year deal with the Sox in 2020 with a slight raise on his $4.2M 2019 salary? 

Why would the White Sox offer so much money to a guy who won't pitch much if at all in 2020 and then will be trying to rehab in 2021 before becoming a free agent again? 

Compared to what Rodon would get on the FA market that is literally RickHahning money down the toilet. 

[bmags]

So anyway this is a fairly large setback. 

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well yeah, but why would the White Sox offer him that? Assuming surgery, that's a lot more than he'll get paid on the FA market, the costs of keeping him in 2021 would be a lot higher than that because we'd have to offer him final year arbitration dollars after him barely pitching at all in 2020 - so basically you're paying him $4.5 million in 2020 and >that amount in 2021 to hold onto him in arbitration, and he costs us a 40 man roster slot in December both years and thus we lose someone else/have to clear a spot for them. 

Except if he doesn't pitch in 2020, they're in pretty much the same spot they'll be in this offseason.  Just offer him another 1 year deal in the $4.5-5M.  If he does come back in 2020 and pitches well for 10 starts or so, maybe he won't accept that and prefers to go to arb and his 2021 salary is more like $7M.  But I don't think Rodon's tab is going to be upwards of $14M for 2 seasons as you suggested.  More like $9-10M (if he misses the rest of 19 and most/all of 2020), and $11-12M if he comes back in 2020 and pitches well. A somewhat hefty sum for 30-35 starts at best, but likely worth it.  

I guess we'll see.  I could see it going either way, but I personally would be shocked if the Sox cut bait with Rodon this offseason.  I also think we should also see the extent of the injury before we make any real judgement.  All this assumes he is going down with TJS and is out until like August 2020.  It is still possible this injury is something far less serious than that, though I am not holding my breath. 

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Why would the White Sox offer so much money to a guy who won't pitch much if at all in 2020 and then will be trying to rehab in 2021 before becoming a free agent again? 

Compared to what Rodon would get on the FA market that is literally RickHahning money down the toilet. 

$4.5M isn't really alot of money in baseball sense.  Its very rare for guys to take salary cuts once they're in arb, but the Sox will hold all the leverage.  Maybe they can get him to sign a 2 or 3 year deal where he makes a $1M or so in 2020, and then $5M in 21 and $10M option or something in 2022.  We'll see.  I really don't think the Sox are going to just let him walk.  48 hours ago he was either our #1 trade asset or our ace for the next 3 seasons.  I don't think they're just going to give up all hope, but I am not discounting the fact that there may be some merit to what you're proposing.  I just don't see it happening.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Except if he doesn't pitch in 2020, they're in pretty much the same spot they'll be in this offseason.  Just offer him another 1 year deal in the $4.5-5M.  If he does come back in 2020 and pitches well for 10 starts or so, maybe he won't accept that and prefers to go to arb and his 2021 salary is more like $7M.  But I don't think Rodon's tab is going to be upwards of $14M for 2 seasons as you suggested.  More like $9-10M (if he misses the rest of 19 and most/all of 2020), and $11-12M if he comes back in 2020 and pitches well. A somewhat hefty sum for 30-35 starts at best, but likely worth it.  

I guess we'll see.  I could see it going either way, but I personally would be shocked if the Sox cut bait with Rodon this offseason.  I also think we should also see the extent of the injury before we make any real judgement.  All this assumes he is going down with TJS and is out until like August 2020.  It is still possible this injury is something far less serious than that, though I am not holding my breath. 

Well first of all, Boras isn't going to just sign a deal with the White Sox, he's going to force the White Sox to choose arbitration or not, you know that as well as I do...and if the White Sox offer him an arbitration value that is below his contract this year, it's possible, but it's probably 50/50 that they'd lose if Boras came back with a $6 million offer on their side. 

And even if everything worked out well the way you envision, that's still an awful lot of money to RickHahn away on a guy who hasn't been a successful big league pitcher at all since 2016, and never a dominant one. How happy are we with Nova's money right now? You're talking Nova money and Nova's been far more reliable than Rodon. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

$4.5M isn't really alot of money in baseball sense.  Its very rare for guys to take salary cuts once they're in arb, but the Sox will hold all the leverage.  Maybe they can get him to sign a 2 or 3 year deal where he makes a $1M or so in 2020, and then $5M in 21 and $10M option or something in 2022.  We'll see.  I really don't think the Sox are going to just let him walk.  48 hours ago he was either our #1 trade asset or our ace for the next 3 seasons.  I don't think they're just going to give up all hope, but I am not discounting the fact that there may be some merit to what you're proposing.  I just don't see it happening.  

Well not in my eyes.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Well not in my eyes.

In your eyes this org will never finish over .500 again in its history, so its all relative.  

Hopefully the injury is a minor set back and he's back in a month or so.  Until the full extent of the injury is known, I will reserve final judgement.  But like I said, if he is in fact getting TJS, there is an argument to be made that letting him walk is the right play.  But I see Hahn trying to enforce his leverage in this situation before just throwing his hands up and letting Carlos hit the FA market.  Maybe that's where it ends up when Boras tell Hahn to GFY, but IMO, that would only be costing his client a fair deal of cash. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

In your eyes this org will never finish over .500 again in its history, so its all relative.  

Hopefully the injury is a minor set back and he's back in a month or so.  Until the full extent of the injury is known, I will reserve final judgement.  But like I said, if he is in fact getting TJS, there is an argument to be made that letting him walk is the right play.  But I see Hahn trying to enforce his leverage in this situation before just throwing his hands up and letting Carlos hit the FA market.  Maybe that's where it ends up when Boras tell Hahn to GFY, but IMO, that would only be costing his client a fair deal of cash. 

Offering a pitcher with a blown out arm way more than their market value is not "Enforcing their leverage". 

This somewhat reminds me of people's fantasy with Garcia last year where the White Sox were going to decline him arbitration but he was going to accept a lesser value without hitting the market. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Offering a pitcher with a blown out arm way more than their market value is not "Enforcing their leverage". 

This somewhat reminds me of people's fantasy with Garcia last year where the White Sox were going to decline him arbitration but he was going to accept a lesser value without hitting the market. 

I'm with you. I think it is fairly likely Rodon gets non-tendered. It really doesn't make sense. Just cut your losses. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm with you. I think it is fairly likely Rodon gets non-tendered. It really doesn't make sense. Just cut your losses. 

And then he signs a minor league deal with an option with someone in February that buys him 2 years to do rehab and recovery but also doesn't require him to have a 40 man roster spot until he's actually done with the IL. 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Offering a pitcher with a blown out arm way more than their market value is not "Enforcing their leverage". 

This somewhat reminds me of people's fantasy with Garcia last year where the White Sox were going to decline him arbitration but he was going to accept a lesser value without hitting the market. 

Enforcing his leverage would be offering him something like a 3-4 year deal where he makes peanuts in 2020 while he rehabs, a similar sum to what he would have made in 2020 in 2021 ($5-6M, maybe give him some incentives), and a team option or two for 22 and 23.  Not too similar from the deal the Twins gave Pineda before 2018 when they knew he was going to be out the whole seasons.  2 years $10M - 2M in 18 and $8M in 19.  I am not proposing something quite that high, but similar idea.  Its not like this has never been done before.  

Rodon and Boras can shake their dick at the offer if they want, but Rodon isn't getting some golden goose offer in FA and I assume he would prefer to rehab with the team he knows than go to some new org and go through that process.  

Again...we'll see what happens. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And then he signs a minor league deal with an option with someone in February that buys him 2 years to do rehab and recovery but also doesn't require him to have a 40 man roster spot until he's actually done with the IL. 

Yes, exactly. It is what it is. 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Enforcing his leverage would be offering him something like a 3-4 year deal where he makes peanuts in 2020 while he rehabs, a similar sum to what he would have made in 2020 in 2021 ($5-6M, maybe give him some incentives), and a team option or two for 22 and 23.  Not too similar from the deal the Twins gave Pineda before 2018 when they knew he was going to be out the whole seasons.  2 years $10M - 2M in 18 and $8M in 19.  I am not proposing something quite that high, but similar idea.  Its not like this has never been done before.  

Rodon and Boras can shake their dick at the offer if they want, but Rodon isn't getting some golden goose offer in FA and I assume he would prefer to rehab with the team he knows than go to some new org and go through that process.  

Again...we'll see what happens. 

But you see what is different? The team that had Pineda, the Yankees - they did not offer him arbitration. That made him a free agent, and he tested the market to find that deal. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 more years of control after this year. So if he has the surgery soon, he comes back second half of next year at the earliest. So then we will have him for a year where we are hoping he can fully adjust to pitching after the surgery. Plenty of people on here give players mulligans their first full year back after a big surgery. That year will be his last year of control.

[mqr]

15 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

2 more years of control after this year. So if he has the surgery soon, he comes back second half of next year at the earliest. So then we will have him for a year where we are hoping he can fully adjust to pitching after the surgery. Plenty of people on here give players mulligans their first full year back after a big surgery. That year will be his last year of control.

2021 needs to be go time. Not sure I can deal with giving a guy a mulligan.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

2021 needs to be go time. Not sure I can deal with giving a guy a mulligan.

Agreed. I'm just referring to people saying that you can't really judge a player until he's been a full season removed from surgery. We need him to be good in 21. We can't wait for him to be fully past the surgery and mediocre since there is no additional control after that season.

And there should be no thought in anyone's head that we should sign him to an extension. Dude has not proven he can stay healthy.

Edited May 3, 2019 by soxfan2014

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

2021 needs to be go time. Not sure I can deal with giving a guy a mulligan.

Which is why he's probably going to get non-tendered.  He could make a hell of a reliever for some other team. Rodon's time with the Sox is finished.

Edited May 3, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Which is why he's probably going to get non-tendered.  He could make a hell of a reliever for some other team. Rodon's time with the Sox is finished.

You make a good point. They would have to pay him next year not to play. So probably well over $10 million in total to see what he has in 2021. We have probably seen the last of Carlos Rodon in a White Sox uniform. 

His wife had some comments about money during the winter. It was hard to tell what side of the fence she was on. I read them and couldn't figure out if she was hinting the White Sox were trying to lowball him or he might just take less money to stay. Doesn't matter at this point.

Edited May 3, 2019 by Dick Allen

[Jose Abreu]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

So anyway this is a fairly large setback. 

Meh. It sucks that we won’t be able to trade him for value but I don’t think he was ever gonna stay here after his contract is up. I’ve never been less fazed by a season ending injury to one of my team’s best pitchers for that reason. Kopech, on the other hand, was devastating. Dunning too. 

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Meh. It sucks that we won’t be able to trade him for value but I don’t think he was ever gonna stay here after his contract is up. I’ve never been less fazed by a season ending injury to one of my team’s best pitchers for that reason. Kopech, on the other hand, was devastating. Dunning too. 

Who cares, we had him for 2.5 more years, that's a long time. I want 2021 to be very competitive, now we need a body to replace him that is more expensive and likely older.