Covey to Rotation (for Rodon)

[ChiSoxFanMike]

16 minutes ago, mqr said:

Castellanos would be alooooooooooooooooooooooot of pressure on Robert to be good in center

He's not good defensively but the guy can hit. And he's already familiar with the division which is a bonus. I'd be fine with Marcell Ozuna instead though.

[Balta1701]

26 minutes ago, Flythesock said:

We’ll see. If he puts up another big year then I think 4/100 or 5/115 is what it would take. 

Worth noting that he's currently sporting an .890 OPS because his HR totals have dropped a lot so far this year.

[bmags]

Castellanos is an abreu replacement.

[Flythesock]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Worth noting that he's currently sporting an .890 OPS because his HR totals have dropped a lot so far this year.

The stat cast data suggests that he’s just as good if not even a little better than the last few years. Those balls will start clearing fences real soon. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/j-d-martinez-502110?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Castellanos is an abreu replacement.

Considering that this franchise is still on pace to have Alonso on a deal no one will want to take from them next offseason, I'd say he's more a RF than a 1b/DH right now.

[Jack Parkman]

I like the Ozuna/Grandal plan for hitting. I can understand Wheeler, but only if he gets a deal similar to Eovaldi this past offseason. Wheeler might throw 100, but he gets hurt a TON. If it goes over 100M hard pass on Wheeler. I'd want to try to get Gerrit Cole, but I think he's destined to be a Jankee. I think this team needs a Lefty with Rodon no longer part of the team. I'd just go for MadBum and hope for the best, to be honest. As long as you're not expecting more than a #3 rotation stabilizer, he's fine. I'd have no problems giving him $100M, but I wouldn't go much more than $110M. 

so for me: 

Ozuna

Grandal

MadBum/Wheeler based on price. 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[bmags]

37 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Considering that this franchise is still on pace to have Alonso on a deal no one will want to take from them next offseason, I'd say he's more a RF than a 1b/DH right now.

Castellanos is an Abreu replacement.

[OneDog847]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No offense, but this is ridiculous.  Just because we missed out on Machado doesn’t mean we won’t spend at all.  We won’t be rocking a sub $70M payroll next year which is what you seem to be suggesting.  Give me Wheeler, Grandal, & Ozuna (which would be well within our budget) and we’d have a great shot at winning the division next year IMO.

No offense, but adding Zach Wheeler, Grandal, and Ozuna is not enough to get this team over the hump next year. A rotation led by Zach Wheeler and a bunch of kids isn't enough. Also, adding those 3 to long-term contracts will likely cost the Sox close to 200 million dollars total. I could see the Sox signing one of those guys but no way in hell will they sign all 3. 

[mqr]

9 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

No offense, but adding Zach Wheeler, Grandal, and Ozuna is not enough to get this team over the hump next year. A rotation led by Zach Wheeler and a bunch of kids isn't enough. Also, adding those 3 to long-term contracts will likely cost the Sox close to 200 million dollars total. I could see the Sox signing one of those guys but no way in hell will they sign all 3. 

Waiting for every player to be fully matured before supplementing them is a good way to get maybe 1 competitive year total. Risks need to be taken, that goes for any rebuild in any sport

Edited May 3, 2019 by mqr

[Jack Parkman]

15 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

No offense, but adding Zach Wheeler, Grandal, and Ozuna is not enough to get this team over the hump next year. A rotation led by Zach Wheeler and a bunch of kids isn't enough. Also, adding those 3 to long-term contracts will likely cost the Sox close to 200 million dollars total. I could see the Sox signing one of those guys but no way in hell will they sign all 3. 

If that is what you think, then this rebuild is doomed to failure and they might as well sell players that have already reached the majors as soon as they establish their value. Start thinking about what Moncada and Kopech will bring in a trade in 2021 or 2022. They aren't getting Gerrit Cole, and they aren't getting Mookie Betts. If you think they're still about as far away from competing as they were in 2017, then it's over already. They have to try next year, there is no other option.  Otherwise it's over now. 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

No offense, but adding Zach Wheeler, Grandal, and Ozuna is not enough to get this team over the hump next year. A rotation led by Zach Wheeler and a bunch of kids isn't enough. Also, adding those 3 to long-term contracts will likely cost the Sox close to 200 million dollars total. I could see the Sox signing one of those guys but no way in hell will they sign all 3. 

The White Sox offered Machado $250M, why wouldn’t they be willing to spend $200M on three important pieces?  And again, what is your payroll expectation for them next year exactly?  The lack have almost zero payroll commitments.

Also, I think a rotation of Wheeler, Cease, Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez could easily combine for 15+ WAR next year (when you have quality backup options like Dunning & Lambert in place for any missed time).  Therefore, to get to 88 wins (which should be enough to be in the mix for this shit division) we’d need 25 WAR from our bullpen and positional group.  With Grandal & Ozuna in the fold, that really shouldn’t a huge stretch.  I’d put those two plus Moncada, Anderson, & Jimenez at around 19 WAR next year.  That leaves about six WAR needed from CF, 1B, DH, 2B, and our bullpen.  That seems very much within reach, especially if someone like Robert is even semi decent as a rookie.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The White Sox offered Machado $250M, why wouldn’t they be willing to spend $200M on three important pieces?  And again, what is your payroll expectation for them next year exactly?  The lack have almost zero payroll commitments.

Also, I think a rotation of Wheeler, Cease, Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez could easily combine for 15+ WAR next year (when you have quality backup options like Dunning & Lambert in place for any missed time).  Therefore, to get to 88 wins (which should be enough to be in the mix for this shit division) we’d need 25 WAR from our bullpen and positional group.  With Grandal & Ozuna in the fold, that really shouldn’t a huge stretch.  I’d put those two plus Moncada, Anderson, & Jimenez at around 19 WAR next year.  That leaves about six WAR needed from CF, 1B, DH, 2B, and our bullpen.  That seems very much within reach, especially if someone like Robert is even semi decent as a rookie.

Just to say it again - the game you're trying to play is a game I learned not to play in 2015 because I was doing the exact same thing while thinking that team had a shot. When you try to project those results by counting what you think each guy will do, you are building in optimism without even realizing it, because you're leaving out injuries, you're being optimistic, and you're neglecting guys who straight up LaRoche it.

Let's just take one example from your text, "Easily combine for 15+ WAR" = this literally translates to a top 6 rotation in all of MLB in 2018 because only 6 rotations had 15 WAR from their starters. One of those guys is a rookie, 3 have been inconsistent, one of your main ones is in season 1 off of TJS, one of your backup options will probably not even be pitching until the middle of the season let alone be available to the big league roster, wheeler has put up 4 WAR in a season before  but, in 2016 he went down for TJS, his comeback in 2017 left him with an ERA over 5 and starts where he fell off a cliff late in the year. Could they be a top 5 rotation? Yes, that's a talented rotation. Is that the most likely outcome?

It sounds great to say "These guys should easily be a top 6 rotation in MLB", and you're right they could be, it's talented, but a couple things go wrong and suddenly you have a 5-7 win rotation and you finish below .500 even after spending your money. Does anyone look at that rotation in 2020 and immediately think "I would be stunned and disappointed if this wasn't one of the 6 best rotations in baseball"? That's the standard you just set because you said they should easily be top 6, and that is a very high standard.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just to say it again - the game you're trying to play is a game I learned not to play in 2015 because I was doing the exact same thing while thinking that team had a shot. When you try to project those results by counting what you think each guy will do, you are building in optimism without even realizing it, because you're leaving out injuries, you're being optimistic, and you're neglecting guys who straight up LaRoche it.

Let's just take one example from your text, "Easily combine for 15+ WAR" = this literally translates to a top 6 rotation in all of MLB in 2018 because only 6 rotations had 15 WAR from their starters. One of those guys is a rookie, 3 have been inconsistent, one of your main ones is in season 1 off of TJS, one of your backup options will probably not even be pitching until the middle of the season let alone be available to the big league roster, wheeler has put up 4 WAR in a season before  but, in 2016 he went down for TJS, his comeback in 2017 left him with an ERA over 5 and starts where he fell off a cliff late in the year. Could they be a top 5 rotation? Yes, that's a talented rotation. Is that the most likely outcome?

It sounds great to say "These guys should easily be a top 6 rotation in MLB", and you're right they could be, it's talented, but a couple things go wrong and suddenly you have a 5-7 win rotation and you finish below .500 even after spending your money. Does anyone look at that rotation in 2020 and immediately think "I would be stunned and disappointed if this wasn't one of the 6 best rotations in baseball"? That's the standard you just set because you said they should easily be top 6, and that is a very high standard.

I said I think that rotation could easily put up 15 WAR and that’s based on its talent level.  By no means am I suggesting that’s a guarantee (could <> should), but you can’t wait until all your young guys break out before adding via free agency or you’ve likely wasted a crucial year of your core.  You’ve got to take some chances and next year is when the window needs to be ripped open one way or the other.

[WBWSF]

Why Covey instead of Cease?  Is Hahn trying to lose on purpose?

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, WBWSF said:

Why Covey instead of Cease?  Is Hahn trying to lose on purpose?

At the very least, Covey is currently on the 40 man roster while Cease is not. Until it is 100% Certain that Rodon needs the TJ Surgery, you call Covey up to fill that role. If and when Rodon does have the surgery goes on the 60 day IL, and adding him to that list would open a 40 man roster spot.

Once Rodon is on the 60 day IL and the surgery is scheduled/happening for certain, then the next question becomes "What is best for Dylan Cease's health and development"? His inning totals in the minors are less than Kopech's were last year and he has also had a previous TJS, so there is something to be said for giving him 50 or 75 minor league innings to limit the stress on his arm of throwing to big leaguers all year. He'll be on an innings limit before the end of the season regardless. I'm not sure where I'd draw that line, but it won't be long if he continues pitching well.

[SonofaRoache]

17 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

No offense, but adding Zach Wheeler, Grandal, and Ozuna is not enough to get this team over the hump next year. A rotation led by Zach Wheeler and a bunch of kids isn't enough. Also, adding those 3 to long-term contracts will likely cost the Sox close to 200 million dollars total. I could see the Sox signing one of those guys but no way in hell will they sign all 3. 

Maybe not, but adding them with an improved Anderson, Moncada, Jimenez, and with Kopech, Cease, Robert, Madrigal, bullpen help, and any improvement from Rodon, Gio, and Lopey will help get them over the hump.  

[SCCWS]

17 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The White Sox offered Machado $250M, why wouldn’t they be willing to spend $200M on three important pieces?  And again, what is your payroll expectation for them next year exactly?  The lack have almost zero payroll commitments.

Also, I think a rotation of Wheeler, Cease, Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez could easily combine for 15+ WAR next year (when you have quality backup options like Dunning & Lambert in place for any missed time).  Therefore, to get to 88 wins (which should be enough to be in the mix for this shit division) we’d need 25 WAR from our bullpen and positional group.  With Grandal & Ozuna in the fold, that really shouldn’t a huge stretch.  I’d put those two plus Moncada, Anderson, & Jimenez at around 19 WAR next year.  That leaves about six WAR needed from CF, 1B, DH, 2B, and our bullpen.  That seems very much within reach, especially if someone like Robert is even semi decent as a rookie.

To get to 15 WAR, each would have to average 3. Wheeler Gio and Lopez combined for their career would not even be a 2 WAR per year.   Now Wheeler had a good year last year but  he has been up and down.  I think if those 5 combined for 8-10 WAR  that would be a giant leap and everything would have to fall into place.   For example, Rodon for his carer is not even a 2 WAR. 

[OneDog847]

18 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Just to say it again - the game you're trying to play is a game I learned not to play in 2015 because I was doing the exact same thing while thinking that team had a shot. When you try to project those results by counting what you think each guy will do, you are building in optimism without even realizing it, because you're leaving out injuries, you're being optimistic, and you're neglecting guys who straight up LaRoche it.

Let's just take one example from your text, "Easily combine for 15+ WAR" = this literally translates to a top 6 rotation in all of MLB in 2018 because only 6 rotations had 15 WAR from their starters. One of those guys is a rookie, 3 have been inconsistent, one of your main ones is in season 1 off of TJS, one of your backup options will probably not even be pitching until the middle of the season let alone be available to the big league roster, wheeler has put up 4 WAR in a season before  but, in 2016 he went down for TJS, his comeback in 2017 left him with an ERA over 5 and starts where he fell off a cliff late in the year. Could they be a top 5 rotation? Yes, that's a talented rotation. Is that the most likely outcome?

It sounds great to say "These guys should easily be a top 6 rotation in MLB", and you're right they could be, it's talented, but a couple things go wrong and suddenly you have a 5-7 win rotation and you finish below .500 even after spending your money. Does anyone look at that rotation in 2020 and immediately think "I would be stunned and disappointed if this wasn't one of the 6 best rotations in baseball"? That's the standard you just set because you said they should easily be top 6, and that is a very high standard.

Yes sir. The Sox have already played the game of signing a bunch of Tier B free agents in one offseason and hoping they all hit. We already know how that ended. 

The best course of action is to add an elite position player and an elite TOR arm via FA/trade and fill in the rest of the roster with cheap homegrown talent. However, the Sox FO showed us this last offseason that they are unwilling to put their $ where their mouth is. 

Like it or not, 2020 will likely be another tank/developmental year. The Sox still need to figure out what they have with a bunch of the young kids. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 5/2/2019 at 2:19 PM, justBLAZE said:

Hahn said Sox might look outside organization for pitching help, with Rodon on IL per Andy Masur on twitter.

Santana recycled  ! Shields  !

Edited May 5, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[kwolf68]

On 5/4/2019 at 9:56 AM, WBWSF said:

Why Covey instead of Cease?  Is Hahn trying to lose on purpose?

 

I have thought about that too. But I think given the makeup of the staff right now, considering its a complete dumpster fire, they want to let Cease just pitch in a relaxed controlled environment. 

The real issue is:

Gio and Rey-Trajectory says great arms, terrible consistency. 2019? Same ole same ole. Neither able to follow up great performances with any momentum.

Carlos-Trajectory says injury problems. Current status? IR

Kopech and Dunning, two of the three most promising arms are currently in TJS rehab

After this we have fodder like Nova, Banuelos,Covey and any "outside the organization" scrub we can cobble up to complete this terrible pitching situation. The back end of the bullpen is actually pretty good--IF we can get to it. 

The Sox have ZILCH outside of that mess. Injured guys, inconsistent guys, guys who just are not that good. 

Putting Cease into this frying pan just isn't a good idea I think. I think IF (big IF) the Sox get Rey and Gio pitching consistently, Rodon comes back and the Sox as a whole begin to play more consistent, quality baseball THEN we'll see Dylan Cease. Basically, you become a product of your environment, so before we bring up Cease the Sox need to cultivate a positive environment for their pitchers, and right now it's pretty damn  ugly. I turned to game off last night after 7 runs were scored and Renteria was sitting on his hands doing nothing while Boston was partaking in batting practice against Manny. 

 

Edited May 5, 2019 by kwolf68

[flavum]

On 5/4/2019 at 10:06 AM, Balta1701 said:

At the very least, Covey is currently on the 40 man roster while Cease is not. Until it is 100% Certain that Rodon needs the TJ Surgery, you call Covey up to fill that role. If and when Rodon does have the surgery goes on the 60 day IL, and adding him to that list would open a 40 man roster spot.

Once Rodon is on the 60 day IL and the surgery is scheduled/happening for certain, then the next question becomes "What is best for Dylan Cease's health and development"? His inning totals in the minors are less than Kopech's were last year and he has also had a previous TJS, so there is something to be said for giving him 50 or 75 minor league innings to limit the stress on his arm of throwing to big leaguers all year. He'll be on an innings limit before the end of the season regardless. I'm not sure where I'd draw that line, but it won't be long if he continues pitching well.

Cease is on the 40-man. Has been since November.