An Interesting Idea with Rodon

[Lillian]

Apparently Rodon is waiting for a second opinion, before proceeding with the anticipated Tommy John Surgery. He will turn 27, at the end of the year and will be arbitration eligible, next year. He'll be a free agent in 2022, at age 29. If he has TJ surgery, he will miss all of next year and thus have only one year left, before he becomes a free agent. With Scott Boras as his agent, that could mean that the Sox will likely have to competitively bid for his services. Given that this surgical procedure has become so common and so well perfected, with pitchers coming back, as good as ever, perhaps management should consider extending him now. 

Carlos might appreciate having a little more security, given his recent injuries. If the Sox could give him something more than what he would likely receive in arbitration, given the fact that he won't pitch next year, perhaps he would be willing to take a "discount" for a few years, beyond his free agent year. Quantifying such a proposal is something I'd prefer to leave to others, but the idea of offering him a little security, in exchange for some contractual consideration, beyond his free agent year, could make sense for both sides. If not, why even bother to keep him? If they can't extend him, could it almost make more sense to just not offer him a contract, after this season? 

Edited May 13, 2019 by Lillian

[Lillian]

Would one of you moderators please repost this new thread to "Palehose Talk"? I inadvertently posted it in the Future Sox section.

[greg775]

There is no reason to sign him. None. If the Sox can't afford a surgically rebuilt Rodon, then they have major problems.

[vilehoopster]

This is an interesting idea, but it would have to be a pretty significant "discount". I'm not ready to write him off completely, but I am getting there very quickly. I would say the odds are less than 50% (if he gets TJ surgery) that he is even a decent pitcher. The Sox just took that gamble to the tune of $4.65 million that Nate Jones could bounce back from his continual injuries and now that looks like totally wasted money. Maybe something with a few years but really cheap and loaded with incentive clauses. 

Wow, when you think about the money wasted on Jones and the Machado bubbies, Hahn has really pissed away a lot of money this year. 

[mqr]

If he has TJ I'm cutting my loses now tbh. I'm not paying him in 2020 to keep him around so we can see if maybe he could pitch when it should absolutely be go time for the team. 

[Soxfest]

He is hurt all the time, no sense signing him long term, might be another John Danks contract.

[ChiSox59]

I suggested this in Rodon thread without much support and mostly negative reaction, but I would totally approach Rodon with an extension right now (assuming he's going to have to get TJS).  

Something like 3 years $16M (20: $2.5M (out with TJS), 21: $5.5M, 22: $8M) and then a series of team options at $10M, $12M and $14M, each with a $500k buyout.  So Rodon is guaranteed $16.5M over the next three, and it gives the Sox a lot of upside if he comes back strong.  

The naysayers will say why would you guarantee a guy $16M over the next three who has just underwent two major arm and shoulder operations?  Well he's making $4.2M this season.  Assume he'd get a slight raise in arbitration even with being out all of 2019 - call it $4.5M.  And then he'd probably get $6M+ in 2020, his final year of arb.  So if the Sox were to go that route, they're paying Rodon $10-12M for two years in which they know we won't pitch in year 1, and may well take some bumps in 2020 in his first year back from surgery.  And then he is a FA.  The deal I proposed would give the Sox an extra year for somewhere between $4-6M more than they'd pay him for 2 years via the arb process, but most importantly, the Sox would then get a series of team options that could be well below market value if Carlos comes back strong.  That could turn into a significant asset either for the Sox, or via trade down the line. 

For Carlos, it gives him some security. If he turns a deal like this down, he's a FA a looking for a new deal with a new team he doesn't know.  He'd have to go through the rehab process with an unfamiliar training staff. While the deal I propose would definitely limit his upside, he makes a bit more in the next two years while he rehabs in a place he is comfortable with, and if he is able to come back healthy, he still has some options that while may be a bit below market value, are still nice paydays.  He could potentially be looking at a minor league deal if he is nontendered. 

I think it makes sense for both sides.  I would prefer something a little cheaper from the Sox end - at least to start - but the numbers I proposed is something I think could actually get done and work for both sides.  Basically you're betting $8M that Rodon will be able to come back from this and in exchange you get 4 free agents years (thee of which are team options) at an AAV of $11M. 

For me, its either extend him or non-tender him.  I don't think going through the arb process two more times with him makes much sense. If you're going to keep him around, use your current leverage and get some potentially undermarket club options to make up for being loyal to your guy.  Its a win-win IMO. And even if Rodon is never able to regain his form, its not like a $5.5M and $8M guarantee in 20 and 21 are going to kill the org.  It is a gamble worth taking IMO.  

Edited May 13, 2019 by ChiSox59

[Lip Man 1]

54 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I suggested this in Rodon thread without much support and mostly negative reaction, but I would totally approach Rodon with an extension right now (assuming he's going to have to get TJS).  

Something like 3 years $16M (19: $2.5M (out with TJS), 20: $5.5M, 21: $8M) and then a series of team options at $10M, $12M and $14M, each with a $500k buyout.  So Rodon is guaranteed $16.5M over the next three, and it gives the Sox a lot of upside if he comes back strong.  

The naysayers will say why would you guarantee a guy $16M over the next three who has just underwent two major arm and shoulder operations?  Well he's making $4.2M this season.  Assume he'd get a slight raise in arbitration even with being out all of 2019 - call it $4.5M.  And then he'd probably get $6M+ in 2020, his final year of arb.  So if the Sox were to go that route, they're paying Rodon $10-12M for two years in which they know we won't pitch in year 1, and may well take some bumps in 2020 in his first year back from surgery.  And then he is a FA.  The deal I proposed would give the Sox an extra year for somewhere between $4-6M more than they'd pay him for 2 years via the arb process, but most importantly, the Sox would then get a series of team options that could be well below market value if Carlos comes back strong.  That could turn into a significant asset either for the Sox, or via trade down the line. 

For Carlos, it gives him some security. If he turns a deal like this down, he's a FA a looking for a new deal with a new team he doesn't know.  He'd have to go through the rehab process with an unfamiliar training staff. While the deal I propose would definitely limit his upside, he makes a bit more in the next two years while he rehabs in a place he is comfortable with, and if he is able to come back healthy, he still has some options that while may be a bit below market value, are still nice paydays.  He could potentially be looking at a minor league deal if he is nontendered. 

I think it makes sense for both sides.  I would prefer something a little cheaper from the Sox end - at least to start - but the numbers I proposed is something I think could actually get done and work for both sides.  Basically you're betting $8M that Rodon will be able to come back from this and in exchange you get 4 free agents years (thee of which are team options) at an AAV of $11M. 

For me, its either extend him or non-tender him.  I don't think going through the arb process two more times with him makes much sense. If you're going to keep him around, use your current leverage and get some potentially undermarket club options to make up for being loyal to your guy.  Its a win-win IMO. And even if Rodon is never able to regain his form, its not like a $5.5M and $8M guarantee in 20 and 21 are going to kill the org.  It is a gamble worth taking IMO.  

Interesting idea but I think it is to much of a risk given his history. Also given it's Scott Boras has he ever agreed to something along these lines with a frequently injured player? Somehow I don't think he'd go for it.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Interesting idea but I think it is to much of a risk given his history. Also given it's Scott Boras has he ever agreed to something along these lines with a frequently injured player? Somehow I don't think he'd go for it.

Is $16M over two season he can actually pitch with three team options thereafter really much of a risk in today's game though?  That isn't very much money.  Its definitely a risk, but its a calculated risk that could have a fair amount of value if it works out. 

[Lillian]

Paying any pitcher for future years is a risk, especially today, with all of the injuries they are sustaining. At least in this case, he will have already had TJ surgery, and his shoulder was already "cleaned up" without any apparent negative effect. If Rodon were not willing to accept such a deal, then he would be sealing is own fate. Cut him loose. 

[black jack]

I thought for sure this "interesting idea" was to somehow trade him for a left handed bat.

[Lillian]

27 minutes ago, black jack said:

I thought for sure this "interesting idea" was to somehow trade him for a left handed bat.

Touché. LOL. Now you're talkin'

[pcq]

Rodon has given the Sox every reason not to invest further in him. I hope Ashley does not mind. Cut bait. 

[OneDog847]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I suggested this in Rodon thread without much support and mostly negative reaction, but I would totally approach Rodon with an extension right now (assuming he's going to have to get TJS).  

Something like 3 years $16M (20: $2.5M (out with TJS), 21: $5.5M, 22: $8M) and then a series of team options at $10M, $12M and $14M, each with a $500k buyout.  So Rodon is guaranteed $16.5M over the next three, and it gives the Sox a lot of upside if he comes back strong.  

The naysayers will say why would you guarantee a guy $16M over the next three who has just underwent two major arm and shoulder operations?  Well he's making $4.2M this season.  Assume he'd get a slight raise in arbitration even with being out all of 2019 - call it $4.5M.  And then he'd probably get $6M+ in 2020, his final year of arb.  So if the Sox were to go that route, they're paying Rodon $10-12M for two years in which they know we won't pitch in year 1, and may well take some bumps in 2020 in his first year back from surgery.  And then he is a FA.  The deal I proposed would give the Sox an extra year for somewhere between $4-6M more than they'd pay him for 2 years via the arb process, but most importantly, the Sox would then get a series of team options that could be well below market value if Carlos comes back strong.  That could turn into a significant asset either for the Sox, or via trade down the line. 

For Carlos, it gives him some security. If he turns a deal like this down, he's a FA a looking for a new deal with a new team he doesn't know.  He'd have to go through the rehab process with an unfamiliar training staff. While the deal I propose would definitely limit his upside, he makes a bit more in the next two years while he rehabs in a place he is comfortable with, and if he is able to come back healthy, he still has some options that while may be a bit below market value, are still nice paydays.  He could potentially be looking at a minor league deal if he is nontendered. 

I think it makes sense for both sides.  I would prefer something a little cheaper from the Sox end - at least to start - but the numbers I proposed is something I think could actually get done and work for both sides.  Basically you're betting $8M that Rodon will be able to come back from this and in exchange you get 4 free agents years (thee of which are team options) at an AAV of $11M. 

For me, its either extend him or non-tender him.  I don't think going through the arb process two more times with him makes much sense. If you're going to keep him around, use your current leverage and get some potentially undermarket club options to make up for being loyal to your guy.  Its a win-win IMO. And even if Rodon is never able to regain his form, its not like a $5.5M and $8M guarantee in 20 and 21 are going to kill the org.  It is a gamble worth taking IMO.  

Rodon's form has been a dude that is always battling an injury. He hasn't been very good when "healthy" either. 

The White Sox are a cheap ass organization. 5.5 and 8 million is a lot to them. 

Non-tender is the easy answer.

[Lip Man 1]

5 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Rodon's form has been a dude that is always battling an injury. He hasn't been very good when "healthy" either. 

The White Sox are a cheap ass organization. 5.5 and 8 million is a lot to them. 

Non-tender is the easy answer.

Yet they'll waste said money on guys like Keppinger, LaRoche, Dunn, Alonso and Jay

[pcq]

Adios Carlios.

[poppysox]

On 5/13/2019 at 4:11 PM, Soxfest said:

bHe is hurt all the time, no sense signing him long term, might be another John Danks contract.

I would never give him Danks money.  Maybe a third of it.

Edited May 15, 2019 by poppysox

[Kalapse]

It's so incredibly disheartening that this league has an anti-trust exemption.

[oldsox]

4 hours ago, Kalapse said:

It's so incredibly disheartening that this league has an anti-trust exemption.

Please briefly explain.

[Donaldo]

On 5/13/2019 at 3:11 PM, Soxfest said:

He is hurt all the time, no sense signing him long term, might be another John Danks contract.

Even when he's "healthy," he's constantly having issues with blisters.

I hate like hell to give up on a player with so much talent, but talent isn't the issue.

Maybe they could try converting him into a closer because he's just not durable enough to be a starter.