Rainy Day Poll: Evaluate the Big 3 Trades

[gusguyman]

I saw a tweet today from the WS about how today is the first time Cease and Eloy have been teammates since the trade. It sent me down a google hole, and I realized that it had been about 2 years since the big 3 white flag trades. Most of the major pieces have either arrived or are one the cusp of hitting the majors (Sorry Basabe fans). As such, it seems like a great time to revisit them and guess which of the 3 trades ends up getting us the most, and which ends up the best for us. I compiled the stats of all the players below to make it a bit easier. 

IMO, the Sale trade will produce the most for us (I love Eloy, but I really think he is a DH which limits his impact). However, Sale put up a couple amazing seasons for Boston, so I think the Eaton trade may end up being the most lopsided for us. What do ya'll think?

(ALSO: Yes, the Shields trade sucked, not the topic here though. Don't be the asshole who derails this with a Hahn rant, we already have threads for that.)

Edited May 18, 2019 by gusguyman
Apparently HTML is a no-go, had to make an image :(

[Baker]

In the Quintana trade I would have preferred Kelly Crull instead of Flete. 

[poppysox]

Great poll question.  I love that for me these are not easy to answer.   We did really--really well in all three trades in my opinion.  Now, with a little time passing it is obvious we really won the Eaton trade.  When Dunning is healthy 3 of our starters  could well come from this deal.  Sale and Q deals are both nice with each producing a potential TOR starter and at least 2 or 3 major league roster pieces who will be producing years after Sale & Q have hung em up.  Since we did give up Sale & Q and they have produced well it hard to call them wins for us but more like everyone got what they wanted.  

[greg775]

I had to go with the Cubs trade. We are being led to believe Eloy and Cease are both truly special. So it's a no brainer. Until proven otherwise, that's by far the best of the trades.

[gusguyman]

I want to hear the rationale of the one person who thinks Gio & Reylo will be the best players.

[Chicago White Sox]

I think the Sale trade provides the most value, but we also gave up our best chip in the process.  To me, the best trade right now is the Quintana trade but it’s entirely possible that Eaton deal looks like a complete steal in a couple years if Giolito keeps this up.

Not to go negative here and derail the thread, but the returns of these trades make it that much more frustrating that we haven’t been able to supplement all these pieces via the draft.  This rebuild would be looking pretty good if we were even semi competent with our drafting.

[Jack Parkman]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not to go negative here and derail the thread, but the returns of these trades make it that much more frustrating that we haven’t been able to supplement all these pieces via the draft.  This rebuild would be looking pretty good if we were even semi competent with our drafting.

^^^^

[gusguyman]

55 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think the Sale trade provides the most value, but we also gave up our best chip in the process.  To me, the best trade right now is the Quintana trade but it’s entirely possible that Eaton deal looks like a complete steal in a couple years if Giolito keeps this up.

Not to go negative here and derail the thread, but the returns of these trades make it that much more frustrating that we haven’t been able to supplement all these pieces via the draft.  This rebuild would be looking pretty good if we were even semi competent with our drafting.

Especially considering the hit rate on the trades. Moncada was as close as to a sure thing as can be, as the #1 prospect and already at AAA, but the rest had real risks. Gio and Lopez already had MLB time, but both had lost some prospect shine and came with asterisks (Gio especially). For everyone else, there was a lot of pedigree but no one was even at AA yet.

Out of the 8 legit prospects we got in return, 5 are already in the MLB, Cease is all but guaranteed to get there and Basabe/Dunning still have outside shots. Those main 6 all still have at least a small chance to be All-stars at some point in their career, and it looks like at least a couple will end up as foundational players. That is 75% of a rebuild right there, and way better conversion on prospects than I expected.

[poppysox]

Best value and best for the White Sox both imply getting the better end of the deal.  We obviously got the better end of the Eaton deal.  Our two best starters this year and a future probable for one oft injured outfielder.  I liked Eaton but would do this over in a heartbeat.

[poppysox]

4 hours ago, Baker said:

In the Quintana trade I would have preferred Kelly Crull instead of Flete. 

Two players of star potential for a good # 2/3 starter.  Good for both teams but I like our long term on it. Very good trade for a rebuild.

[Timmy U]

3 hours ago, gusguyman said:

I want to hear the rationale of the one person who thinks Gio & Reylo will be the best players.

I didn’t vote this way, but if you really believe in Giolito’s start to the year with the changes he’s made, you could argue he’s headed to being a number 2 starter.  That’s pretty valuable.  Hell, Keith Law might pick option two.  Bonus:  right now those guys are our entire starting rotation.  Giolito and ReyLo and pray for rainouts?

[turnin' two]

3 hours ago, gusguyman said:

I want to hear the rationale of the one person who thinks Gio & Reylo will be the best players.

I wasn't the first, but I voted there.  The question was, if I read it correctly, which provides the most value, not the best players.  That trade could net the Sox 3 starting pitchers in the majors, for an injury prone, singles hitting RF.  I hadn't even looked at the WAR chart, but upon seeing it, Reylo and Gio have provided more WAR than Eaton already.  Gio looks like a new man that could feature prominently in the rotation (way to go Parkman!  Your faith pulled him through!).  Reynaldo has been a bit touch and go, but his last 6 starts after a horrible start have yielded a 3.19 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and 10.1 K/9.  Both of these guys could be major parts of the next good Sox team.  Could Eloy and Cease be better?  Yes, and I hope they are.  Are Moncada and Kopech more important pieces?  Yeah they are.  but if Gio and Lopez are 3&4 in the rotation after Kopech and Cease, and maybe Dunning as the 5, well I think the Sox will have received more value on that trade.  They didn't trade a Cy Young caliber possible HOFer for Gio, Lopez and Dunning.  They did for Moncada and Kopech.  They didn't trade a 200 inning a year, former All Star workhorse.  They traded a completely replaceable OFer.  Since the trade, Eaton has 671 PA.  I'd take the possibility of 1 MLB SP for that.  2 is a homerun.  The prospect of 3?  That, in my opinion, is the most value they got back.  Cmon, that trade, could realistically fill out 3/5 of an MLB rotation.  That is pretty amazing.  For Adam Eaton.  What they got, in light of what they traded, that is the most value.

[wrathofhahn]

Had Kopech not blown out his arm I would have voted for the majority. I can't now though. Cease is dominating and has tremendous stuff. Eloy is injured but still a top prospect.

Basabe and Diaz are more interesting but it's all about the top guys.

[poppysox]

A fair minded person would give Rick Hahn props for all three deals.  Our probable starting rotation and minimum of two everyday players and possibly more.  These deals alone should make the rebuild a success when coupled with top draft choices.

[zisk]

  Is it possible we win all 3 trades? Yes it is. If so, the anti Hahn crowd will be sad and happy all at once. P.S. Don't forget

the Luis Robert signing!

[Capital G]

I think we will get the most production from YoYo and Kopech. But the Q trade for Cease and Eloy was the one that netted us the most value.

[Flythesock]

It’s just impressive to me that Chris Sale has actually become even better in Boston and yet that trade very much looks like a win-win at this point. How often does a team trade a cheap young Hall of Fame pitcher and get an adequate return?

 

But it in terms of value returned for value given, it’s the Eaton trade. Had he remained healthy it would’ve been more of a tossup, but his injuries and the emergence of Giolito and Lopez make it a slam dunk. 

[ChiSox59]

Moncada and Kopech are most critical.

Eloy and Cease for Q was easily the best return.  

[GradMc]

I gave a slight edge to the Q trade because Kopech's current status.

The Sox got what they going to get for whom they gave up: 

(1) A talented but untested pitcher.

(2) A solid but oft-injured outfielder

(3) A hard luck .500 pitcher

 

 

[ron883]

3 minutes ago, GradMc said:

I gave a slight edge to the Q trade because Kopech's current status.

The Sox got what they going to get for whom they gave up: 

(1) A talented but untested pitcher.

(2) A solid but oft-injured outfielder

(3) A hard luck .500 pitcher

 

 

Weak take. Severely underrating the players traded. 

[mqr]

56 minutes ago, GradMc said:

I gave a slight edge to the Q trade because Kopech's current status.

The Sox got what they going to get for whom they gave up: 

(1) A talented but untested pitcher.

(2) A solid but oft-injured outfielder

(3) A hard luck .500 pitcher

 

 

You’re being about as uncharitable as possible and are flat out wrong on one.

1) An apparent Hall of Famer

2) A player who consistently put up 4+ win seasons, health never a concern

3) A pitcher who consistently put up 4+ win seasons

All on contracts that could have provided serious, serious surplus value. 

[GreenSox]

On 5/18/2019 at 8:04 PM, gusguyman said:

I want to hear the rationale of the one person who thinks Gio & Reylo will be the best players.

I didn't vote that way, but, arguably, Gio currently is the best player and Gio/Reylo  is currently the best 2 player package.  It's certainly not indefensible.  And relative to what the Sox gave up to get them, it's very defensible. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by GreenSox

[poppysox]

22 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I didn't vote that way, but, arguably, Gio currently is the best player and Gio/Reylo  is currently the best 2 player package.  It's certainly not indefensible.  And relative to what the Sox gave up to get them, it's very defensible. 

We gave up the least valuable of the 3 assets to get 2 members and maybe 3 of our rotation.  Actually, the returns on all three deals are pretty darn good.  Hahn does very well in these type of negotiations.  

[GreenSox]

20 minutes ago, poppysox said:

We gave up the least valuable of the 3 assets to get 2 members and maybe 3 of our rotation.  Actually, the returns on all three deals are pretty darn good.  Hahn does very well in these type of negotiations.  

The sale return was light in secondary pieces.  But overall yes those were good trades.  But the rest of them have been generally awful and made on the other teams' terms, as have his moves for veterans.  And his drafts haven't yielded much yet.  You need all of the above to build a winner.

[gusguyman]

7 hours ago, GreenSox said:

I didn't vote that way, but, arguably, Gio currently is the best player and Gio/Reylo  is currently the best 2 player package.  It's certainly not indefensible.  And relative to what the Sox gave up to get them, it's very defensible. 

I purposely left the questions a little bit vague, I wanted people to use their own opinions of value, and what makes a trade better.

Personally, I am going with which group of players will generate the most WAR for the WS for question 1. I understand betting on the upside of Eloy/Cease, but Moncada has been worth the same WAR as Gio/lopez already. He and Gio both took huge steps forward so far this season, but you have to be pretty down on Kopech to think he doesn't provide enough WAR  to make Moncada/Kopech better than Gio/Rey.

However, I did pick Gio/Rey as the best trade for the WS because they are already worth more WAR than Eaton, and that gap is only going to grow.