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ALONSO 2019 DUNN 2011 OFFICIAL COMPARISON THREAD OF DOOM


Greg Hibbard

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2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

2019 Alonso through 170 PAs - .181/.282/,329/.611

2011 Dunn through 208 PAs - .184/.331/.333/.664

WHO SAYS WE CAN'T RELIVE 2011

And the difference: one guy is in the middle of the final year of his contract (with a vesting option) and one guy was awful in the first of a 4-year deal. One is 100000x easier to get rid of than the other. Just give it another month at the most.

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14 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

2019 Alonso through 170 PAs - .181/.282/,329/.611

2011 Dunn through 208 PAs - .184/.331/.333/.664

WHO SAYS WE CAN'T RELIVE 2011

I have confidence that Alonso can get that avg up to .184 in those 38 more at bats

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17 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

And the difference: one guy is in the middle of the final year of his contract (with a vesting option) and one guy was awful in the first of a 4-year deal. One is 100000x easier to get rid of than the other. Just give it another month at the most.

Most of us thought Dunn's signing was an unfixable disaster.  He actually became somewhat tolerable with time.  I don't think Alonso's situation is quite that dire.  I would bat him lower in the order and release him if things don't get better by ASB.  Taking up space from the young guys getting AB's and having Jimenez in outfield is more troubling than his dismal performance.

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1 hour ago, soxfan2014 said:

And the difference: one guy is in the middle of the final year of his contract (with a vesting option) and one guy was awful in the first of a 4-year deal. One is 100000x easier to get rid of than the other. Just give it another month at the most.

I hope you're right but I'll have to see it to believe it that the Sox will eat nine million bucks.

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3 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I hope you're right but I'll have to see it to believe it that the Sox will eat nine million bucks.

It's much much much more likely than them paying him another 9 million bucks

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5 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I hope you're right but I'll have to see it to believe it that the Sox will eat nine million bucks.

It's like 6 at this point.  It's pocket change in the grand scheme of things.  The hold up is likely Hahn trying to save face in the next meeting with JR.  Of course I'd imagine even at his age JR can read a slash line and ask his GM why Yonder is on the roster.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said:

2019 Alonso through 170 PAs - .181/.282/,329/.611

2011 Dunn through 208 PAs - .184/.331/.333/.664

WHO SAYS WE CAN'T RELIVE 2011

Sometimes I think Kenny and his staff may not be very good at evaluating talent. :)

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20 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

You're gonna have a low BABIP when the defenders know you can only hit it to 1/3rd of the field

Will never understand how professional baseball hitters can not hit baseballs to all parts of the field. How is your bat control so poor you can only pull the ball? 

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Alonso has put up higher than a 1.1 fWAR one time in his career with a 2.4. Trading for him for any other reason than getting Machado considering he is being paid more than ever would be dumb. No surprise he brings little to no value, but this bad is a surprise. 

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9 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

UPDATE

2019 Alonso through 181 PAs - .178/.287/,318/.606

2011 Dunn through 208 PAs - .184/.331/.333/.664

Will Alonso have more walks than hits in 2019? He has 24 walks and 28 hits.

 

Hopefully. 

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7 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Alonso is massively unlucky.

He has a good walk to K ratio, above average exit velo, good groundball rate but the hits are not coming.

 

wOBA: .269

xWOBA: .330 (league average is .316)

Babip: .195

This should improve a lot in the second half

 

Again....he isn't that unlucky, he is just super easy to defend.  He hits the ball in the same spot 90% of the time.  The shift kills him.  This isn't something that is going to normalize.  He'd likely be hitting like .250 if teams played him straight up, but they don't and they won't.  

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4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Again....he isn't that unlucky, he is just super easy to defend.  He hits the ball in the same spot 90% of the time.  The shift kills him.  This isn't something that is going to normalize.  He'd likely be hitting like .250 if teams played him straight up, but they don't and they won't.  

This is just wrong. Even with the shift your expected BABIP is 250-260. That means he's nearly 70 points off shift league average. Its more than one SD from the mean - that's very unlucky. So yes it absolutely should normalize. 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is just wrong. Even with the shift your expected BABIP is 250-260. That means he's nearly 70 points of shift league average. Its more than one SD from the mean - that's very unlucky.

Do you watch the games?  He hits 9 out of 10 balls between 2nd base and 1st base where there are 6 defenders.  

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12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Again....he isn't that unlucky, he is just super easy to defend.  He hits the ball in the same spot 90% of the time.  The shift kills him.  This isn't something that is going to normalize.  He'd likely be hitting like .250 if teams played him straight up, but they don't and they won't.  

His expected batting average per Statcast is .242 and I’m assuming that doesn’t account for the shift so you’re pretty much on the money.

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