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ALONSO 2019 DUNN 2011 OFFICIAL COMPARISON THREAD OF DOOM


Greg Hibbard

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36 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Do you watch the games?  He hits 9 out of 10 balls between 2nd base and 1st base where there are 6 defenders.  

Literally none of this matters. 

He is not the first person in baseball history to be heavily pull oriented into the shift. That's why the shift exists.

He also isnt 40% worse, in regards to pulling the ball, than every other pull oriented hitter who is shifted on in major league baseball.

The difference between a hit and an out can be as small as a millimeter on the barrel.

He actually has decent ev which makes his outcomes even more unlikely as EV correlates better to average than pull heavy sprays. He should expect your babip - even after shifting - to fall between 250-265 (250 would be low too). He's been unlucky regardless of what your eyes may tell you - it's just basic statistics. 

Go look at Joey Gallo. Extreme case. Every ground ball he hits is to the right side and he's a extreme fly ball hitter... his BABIPs before this year were 250.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Literally none of this matters. 

He is not the first person in baseball history to be heavily pull oriented into the shift. That's why the shift exists.

He also isnt 40% worse, in regards to pulling the ball, than every other pull oriented hitter who is shifted on in major league baseball.

The difference between a hit and an out can be as small as a millimeter on the barrel.

He actually has decent ev which makes his outcomes even more unlikely as EV correlates better to average than pull heavy sprays. He should expect your babip - even after shifting - to fall between 250-265 (250 would be low too). He's been unlucky regardless of what your eyes may tell you - it's just basic statistics. 

If you expect his BABIP to be ~.250 and he’s striking in 21% of his plate appearances, his batting average should be ~.200.  He’s probably had some bad luck but not likely a ton.

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He's been unlucky but even when he had a BABIP near 300 last year he still only managed a 97 wRC+.   It wasn't too hopeful to think he'd work out as a 1.5 WAR DH in a rebuild year (after he failed to attract Machado, go figure...) but that hope is gone now.   Just cut him and let Palka DH.

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15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If you expect his BABIP to be ~.250 and he’s striking in 21% of his plate appearances, his batting average should be ~.200.  He’s probably had some bad luck but not likely a ton.

Sure if home runs dont count and he hits none. Add 25 home runs and he's up to 250 over 500 PA.

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I think at this point he had a run of terrible luck and either because of it or some other reason he's become totally lost up there. The truth is likely that he saw his bad numbers early and got inside his own head instead of sticking with the plan that had him making quality contact. Now he's making his own luck and it's not good.

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On 5/20/2019 at 3:36 PM, Greg Hibbard said:

2019 Alonso through 170 PAs - .181/.282/,329/.611

2011 Dunn through 208 PAs - .184/.331/.333/.664

WHO SAYS WE CAN'T RELIVE 2011

Updated since he now officially has the same number of PA's as Dunn when you posted this.

 

2019 Alonso through 208 PAs - .172/.279/.300/.579

2011 Dunn through 208 PAs - .184/.331/.333/.664

 

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Alonso has been utterly horrific and every bit as bad as 2011 Dunn. However, the situation isn't NEARLY the disaster that the Dunn deal appeared to be. Alonso can be nothing but a memory in a little over a month if we want.  

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We can also add in the Chris Davis comparison, the guy who started out the year 0-40 or something close to that. At this point Yonder has a 1 point lead in batting average .172 to .171. He is .2 ahead of him in WAR at -.5 to -.7

Yonder has 1 more HR 6-5, and 6 more RBIs but has 25% more at bats.

Yonder is historically bad.

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I for one am interested to see what happens when they bring Jay into the fold. He's gonna start, but our outfield right now is good with Tilson, Leury and Eloy. Tilson is hitting the ball very well and keeping that average around .300, so they would be foolish to sit him. Leury has been a great option for lead-off, so I doubt they move him out of the lineup, and Eloy will not be removed obviously.

My guess is, he takes Cordell's spot on the team.

What I would like to happen, if Jay really has to be here, is he takes over in left or center, Eloy moves to DH or learns how to play first, and Yonder sits his rich ass on the pine. Better yet, DFA him.

What I think will happen is Jay takes over in center, Leury is moved to 2nd, and Yolmer gets the short stick. Leury then would primarily play second while spelling players here and there who need rest at different positions. Yonder still gets his ABs.

Edited by ScooterMcGee
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3 hours ago, SouthWallace said:

Is he following orders to play him every day?   Is RR is really that obtuse and obstinate?  I just can't wrap my head around it.

I find it hard to imagine the FO is ordering RR to play him every day in order to make them not look as bad (as they would be if he was benched or waived) because I guess the sense Renteria may just say "screw you" and quit. I don't think he'd allow himself to be put in that position because if it happened once it can happen again and again.

I'm guessing to a certain  extent RR is bullheaded and feels that Alonso will snap out of it. That's my best guess anyway.

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