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Player Development: Luck or Skill?


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While luck surely plays a significant factor in the $816M separating the Dodgers and White Sox in terms of Value Generated, it is telling that several of the organizations towards the bottom of our list have recently invested in many of the developmental tools the Dodgers and Astros have been using for years. 

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55 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

There's some luck and some skill involved. The ratio of each is what is worth debating. That said, there's no reason for any MLB team to not maximize their investment in player development. It costs less than players themselves, and the returns on investment typically are massive.

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58 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

There's some luck and some skill involved. The ratio of each is what is worth debating. That said, there's no reason for any MLB team to not maximize their investment in player development. It costs less than players themselves, and the returns on investment typically are massive.

Been saying that all along....

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I tend to believe that it is both, but luck has to do with whether or not a player clicks with the instructors at the minor league level. I truly believe that someone like Carson Fulmer could have been a good pitcher elsewhere and likewise there is a possibility that Tatis Jr never ascends if he's not traded. Similarly, I don't think that Sale becomes a great pitcher elsewhere to start his career and I don't think that Giolito turns it around if he doesn't get traded here. 

Long story short, it all depends on the player and the org they go to. if the player development staff and the player themselves click, you have a good player. If it is a bad baseball philosophy fit, then it doesn't work.  If you put the same group of players in a different organization, you have a completely different outcome. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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This is a good place to mention how impressive I thought Justin Jirschele the Winston-Salem Dash manager came across in a recent radio interview.  Only 29 year old and smart... with a good understanding of analytics.  His Dad is third base coach with KC.  Couldn't help but think to myself that we will see him in Chicago one day.

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16 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Great read.

Reading that a player went from Oakland, a place I really admire for their player dev as they seem to overperform prospect rankings quite often,  to the astros and was blown away by how advanced it was is a real eye opener to me.

I mentioned elsewhere, I just finished Astroball, I'll start The MVP Machine next week, it's hard being a fan of the white sox and just not seeing them in this conversation at all. They are trying to catch up to stuff that the these other top orgs started in 2012. Catching up is always easier than pioneering, but its hard when you haven't really added anyone to the org that knows this stuff. It's the same group.

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14 minutes ago, bmags said:

Reading that a player went from Oakland, a place I really admire for their player dev as they seem to overperform prospect rankings quite often,  to the astros and was blown away by how advanced it was is a real eye opener to me.

I mentioned elsewhere, I just finished Astroball, I'll start The MVP Machine next week, it's hard being a fan of the white sox and just not seeing them in this conversation at all. They are trying to catch up to stuff that the these other top orgs started in 2012. Catching up is always easier than pioneering, but its hard when you haven't really added anyone to the org that knows this stuff. It's the same group.

I have been impressed by Chris Getz (director of player development) and Justin Jirschele (29 year old manager of Dash) as examples of new blood in player development.  Getz said during this past week "watch what you see in the second half."  Was very confident our prospects are coming and coming fast.  Jirschele will blow your "Sox Off" when you hear him speak.  Smart analytics guy.

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There is no such thing as luck, nothing happens by chance. Everything that happens is God working in your life for a reason.

It would be nice to say that it's luck so no one can take accountability, but finding good players is skill and developing them is skill too. The key though is to find the player that wants to develop.

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18 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I have been impressed by Chris Getz (director of player development) and Justin Jirschele (29 year old manager of Dash) as examples of new blood in player development.  Getz said during this past week "watch what you see in the second half."  Was very confident our prospects are coming and coming fast.  Jirschele will blow your "Sox Off" when you hear him speak.  Smart analytics guy.

Getz came up through the Sox system, as did Jirschele. Getz had minimal experience with Royals player dev dept.

Though they may be smart and interested in doing it the right way, Id prefer they added some people who had come from orgs familiar with the newer techniques. It isn't required, but it would give me more confidence.

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

Though they may be smart and interested in doing it the right way, Id prefer they added some people who had come from orgs familiar with the newer techniques. It isn't required, but it would give me more confidence.

Thing is we don't know if that was talked about or not. Can only do so much but ultimately it's up to Jerry to open up the check book and pay these guys (as well as possibly the equipment for it). 

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1 hour ago, SoxAce said:

Thing is we don't know if that was talked about or not. Can only do so much but ultimately it's up to Jerry to open up the check book and pay these guys (as well as possibly the equipment for it). 

Uncharitably, I feel like there is an unspoken org rule to make sure to only bring in guys that are "part of the family" and won't try to shake the boat in a way that would make others look bad.

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1 hour ago, Chisox378 said:

There is no such thing as luck, nothing happens by chance. Everything that happens is God working in your life for a reason.

It would be nice to say that it's luck so no one can take accountability, but finding good players is skill and developing them is skill too. The key though is to find the player that wants to develop.

"Luck is the residue of design" - Branch Rickey.

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7 hours ago, poppysox said:

This is a good place to mention how impressive I thought Justin Jirschele the Winston-Salem Dash manager came across in a recent radio interview.  Only 29 year old and smart... with a good understanding of analytics.  His Dad is third base coach with KC.  Couldn't help but think to myself that we will see him in Chicago one day.

If we are shouting out coaches, we also need to recognize W-S pitching coach Matt Zaleski. I feel like every time I read a story about a pitcher doing well in our minor league system, his name is the one that comes up in player quotes.

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On 5/30/2019 at 1:41 PM, Jack Parkman said:

I tend to believe that it is both, but luck has to do with whether or not a player clicks with the instructors at the minor league level. I truly believe that someone like Carson Fulmer could have been a good pitcher elsewhere and likewise there is a possibility that Tatis Jr never ascends if he's not traded. Similarly, I don't think that Sale becomes a great pitcher elsewhere to start his career and I don't think that Giolito turns it around if he doesn't get traded here. 

Long story short, it all depends on the player and the org they go to. if the player development staff and the player themselves click, you have a good player. If it is a bad baseball philosophy fit, then it works. If you put the same group of players in a different organization, you have a completely different outcome. 

This is what I'm talking about. 

Carson Fulmer is awful and the White Sox have maximized arm outcomes about as well as anyone so how can you even say that fulmer failed because he was here? 

No player development team is taking a guy that can't even hang as a middle reliever in the big leagues and turning him into a viable starter. That is valuing player development way too highly.

Player development is not getting a player from B to A, but it may take a player from an A to an A+.

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7 hours ago, bmags said:

Getz came up through the Sox system, as did Jirschele. Getz had minimal experience with Royals player dev dept.

Though they may be smart and interested in doing it the right way, Id prefer they added some people who had come from orgs familiar with the newer techniques. It isn't required, but it would give me more confidence.

I'm confused. Do you want them to pioneer new things or drag behind and follow?

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5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm confused. Do you want them to pioneer new things or drag behind and follow?

good lord you're on one today.  All Sox fans want the Org to stop with the "friends and family" shit and at times hire from outside the family.  If improving the org requires poaching talent and trailblazers from frankly BETTER clubs than DO IT.  There's no shame in admitting others are doing it better and following their lead.

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3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

good lord you're on one today.  All Sox fans want the Org to stop with the "friends and family" shit and at times hire from outside the family.  If improving the org requires poaching talent and trailblazers from frankly BETTER clubs than DO IT.  There's no shame in admitting others are doing it better and following their lead.

How do you have any idea what Chris Getz is educated on or believes in?

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4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is what I'm talking about. 

Carson Fulmer is awful and the White Sox have maximized arm outcomes about as well as anyone so how can you even say that fulmer failed because he was here? 

No player development team is taking a guy that can't even hang as a middle reliever in the big leagues and turning him into a viable starter. That is valuing player development way too highly.

Player development is not getting a player from B to A, but it may take a player from an A to an A+.

Ray Ray, what I meant is that you can take the same 30 guys in a draft class, stick them with all 30 teams and get  30 different outcomes. 

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4 hours ago, bmags said:

This is so dumb.

A reach, sure... exaggeration to press a point, sure.. I guess. Dumb is a rebuttal without substance.

The point I was making is I always find the business side of sports to be comically reactionary and absurd - this would include the thing you are alluding too. Getz could certainly have been intelligent enough - as a Michigan graduate. Hiring from someone you know is standard and completely normal in the big corporate world - almost preferred! 80% of jobs are networked without and public exposure. 

In sports, you could be a top 5-7 winningest coach over a 10 year period and be fired for not being top 3. Its absurd. 

In regards to Getz, we'll see what happens. You don't ever catch up if you're always copying.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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