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Player Development: Luck or Skill?


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12 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Ray Ray, what I meant is that you can take the same 30 guys in a draft class, stick them with all 30 teams and get  30 different outcomes. 

Trout drafted #22 in his class.  All the genius minds in baseball were not in on that one either.  

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12 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Trout drafted #22 in his class.  All the genius minds in baseball were not in on that one either.  

What I'm saying is if Trout were drafted by the Pirates, Yankees or Astros, this version of Mike Trout wouldn't exist and he'd be a different player. He'd probably have been an MLB player anywhere, but Mike Trout as a Pirate might be a 4 win player, Mike Trout as a Yankee might be a 6 win player ' and Mike Trout as an Astro might be a 5 win player. It all depends on how the players themselves mesh with the player development staff and the organizational philosophy. Every team has their own different minutiae and those minutiae affect player development outcomes differently. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

What I'm saying is if Trout were drafted by the Pirates, Yankees or Astros, this version of Mike Trout wouldn't exist and he'd be a different player. He'd probably have been an MLB player anywhere, but Mike Trout as a Pirate might be a 4 win player, Mike Trout as a Yankee might be a 6 win player ' and Mike Trout as an Astro might be a 5 win player. 

Some fans here would think he would be 1 win if drafted by us.  I suspect when discussing elite players the variances would be minimal. Coaching can only do so much.  Great players are driven to be the best.

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On 5/31/2019 at 7:06 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A reach, sure... exaggeration to press a point, sure.. I guess. Dumb is a rebuttal without substance.

The point I was making is I always find the business side of sports to be comically reactionary and absurd - this would include the thing you are alluding too. Getz could certainly have been intelligent enough - as a Michigan graduate. Hiring from someone you know is standard and completely normal in the big corporate world - almost preferred! 80% of jobs are networked without and public exposure. 

In sports, you could be a top 5-7 winningest coach over a 10 year period and be fired for not being top 3. Its absurd. 

In regards to Getz, we'll see what happens. You don't ever catch up if you're always copying.

You don't ever catch up if you are always copying sounds good but most likely untrue. It's a copycat world whether it's sport ,tech, automotive, music, or a popular format for movies. Some copy and do it even better. Some are just updating and going with a proven model . One thing is for sure, get the physical equipment you need to analyze and hire people experienced with using those tools and you catch up in a hurry. One other thing if the people you have cannot adapt then adios.

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On 5/31/2019 at 8:06 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A reach, sure... exaggeration to press a point, sure.. I guess. Dumb is a rebuttal without substance.

The point I was making is I always find the business side of sports to be comically reactionary and absurd - this would include the thing you are alluding too. Getz could certainly have been intelligent enough - as a Michigan graduate. Hiring from someone you know is standard and completely normal in the big corporate world - almost preferred! 80% of jobs are networked without and public exposure. 

In sports, you could be a top 5-7 winningest coach over a 10 year period and be fired for not being top 3. Its absurd. 

In regards to Getz, we'll see what happens. You don't ever catch up if you're always copying.

I have always felt under this ownership the Sox are usually in a "react" mode and just aren't "proactive" very often.

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20 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I have always felt under this ownership the Sox are usually in a "react" mode and just aren't "proactive" very often.

Sure, they're reactive but there are many ways to get to the postseason.  This is one way.

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On 5/31/2019 at 10:52 AM, SoxAce said:

Thing is we don't know if that was talked about or not. Can only do so much but ultimately it's up to Jerry to open up the check book and pay these guys (as well as possibly the equipment for it). 

We are not as good as some in this phase of the game...I'm sure it's not because of money.  This area's people and equipment cost is nickels & dimes compared to player cost.  Clubs have arrived to believe in analytics at different paces.

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