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Great NYP article on Lucas


Real

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https://nypost.com/2019/06/01/how-white-soxs-lucas-giolito-went-from-bust-to-ace-in-the-making/amp/

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Though his .252 BABIP and 3.81 xFIP indicate he has had some good fortune and could be in line for some regression, he is not going to revert back to the pitcher he was last year. He make occasionally get some bumps and bruises, but we’re looking at an ace-in-the-making who is still just 24.

The fact Giolito was the third-most added pitcher (behind Brandon Woodruff and Jordan Lyles) this week, and still owned in less than 40 percent of ESPN leagues, is crazy. It may have taken the 16th pick of the 2012 draft some time to figure things out, but he is here, and fantasy owners should be taking notice. Pick him up before it’s too late.

Edited by Real
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12 minutes ago, ptatc said:

interesting that one of the biggest changes is that he is throwing the fastball a lot less and the change up much more

 

That's been the key to his recent success, just how well in concert the change-up is setting up his fastball.  It's been like clockwork.  They are way ahead of the change, followed by being way behind the fastball.  He's made it look so easy.  It's been a pleasure to watch!

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13 hours ago, Real said:

Regressing towards an xFIP really isnt a thing. Standardizing home runs against basically standardizes quality of contact against - which can vary pitcher to pitcher. Giolito could be a true 8% home run guy with his new stuff.

Normalizing towards FIP is much more likely.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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