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***Day 1 MLB Draft Thread***


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52 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jack, my problem with this is you keep preaching upside but then ignore Vaughns. Vaughn's upside is the best hitter on the planet. That's his ceiling. No one else in this draft has that offensive ceiling. Offense ages better than everything you've listed, and offensive value is greatly prioritized over anything else even as DH and 1st baseman - as well as corner outfielders - are being diminished by the market place.

Being fast and really good defensively is great, but theres a reason Buxton was sent down repeatedly despite being on a 3 WAR pace In those years and it's because the value of defense/base running is not as valuable as offensive value added.

@Look at Ray Ray Run

I wasn't saying that Vaughn had no upside, as much as I was lamenting how much of it was mitigated by his position on the diamond. Listen, I completely understand why they made this pick. They had to have thought that Vaughn's bat was light years ahead of Bleday, which is fine. They have to be proven right. He absolutely has to rake. ( I hate the term "mash" and much prefer "rake") As long as he hits piss rockets and makes pitchers look silly, it is fine. I agree that for position players, hitting comes first and defense second, however I don't like taking players whose entire value revolves around the two most volatile tools in the amateur-pro transition in the top 5. Personal philosophy. There is a really good chance that his power and hit tool won't translate like they think it does. If it translates, and he's actually a 70 hit/80 power guy then it is a wonderful pick. I happen to think that hit and power are the hardest tools to accurately scout amateur position players on and a lot of times you end up wrong. I'd rather pick a 55 hit/60 power guy with plus defense and arm(Bleday) than a guy who has his entire value in hit/power. My argument isn't that Vaughn doesn't have bigger upside, but it is more that they absolutely have to nail this pick and I'd rather have someone with a larger margin for error. I think Vaughn's is razor thin. This is going to be their last top 5 pick for a while and it might be their last top 10 pick for a while, so success is key. 

This is the upside pick here, but it reeks of Jared Mitchell upside and not Mike Trout upside. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 minute ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Can someone explain to me why the other pitchers with 94 MPH velocity and two pitches went before this kid?

Yup. I understand proximity to the big leagues and being able to project a little better plays into this but this kid has the best stuff by far of any of the pitchers taken

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

@Look at Ray Ray Run

I wasn't saying that Vaughn had no upside, as much as I was lamenting how much of it was mitigated by his position on the diamond. Listen, I completely understand why they made this pick. They had to have thought that Vaughn's bat was light years ahead of Bleday, which is fine. They have to be proven right. He absolutely has to rake. ( I hate the term "mash" and much prefer "rake") As long as he hits piss rockets and makes pitchers look silly, it is fine. I agree that for position players, hitting comes first and defense second, however I don't like taking players whose entire value revolves around the two most volatile tools in the amateur-pro transition in the top 5. Personal philosophy. There is a really good chance that his power and hit tool won't translate like they think it does. If it translates, and he's actually a 70 hit/80 power guy then it is a wonderful pick. I happen to think that hit and power are the hardest tools to accurately scout amateur position players on and a lot of times you end up wrong. I'd rather pick a 55 hit/60 power guy with plus defense and arm(Bleday) than a guy who has his entire value in hit/power. My argument isn't that Vaughn doesn't have bigger upside, but it is more that they absolutely have to nail this pick and I'd rather have someone with a larger margin for error. I think Vaughn's is razor thin. 

Please Jack show me factual backing that states the hit tool and power tool are the most volatile. I've been asking for this forever. I am genuinely curious as to where you got this information from.

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Just now, TheTruth05 said:

Yup. I understand proximity to the big leagues and being able to project a little better plays into this but this kid has the best stuff by far of any of the pitchers taken

Exactly.  Unless this kid blows his arm out which any pitcher can, are teams really that excited about adding a potential #3, #4, or fifth starter sooner over a waiting a bit longer for a potential ace?

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1 minute ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Watching his highlites I'm lost as to how he wasnt the number 1 pitcher to go, ha. Or at least higher than 24. Must really hate high school pitchers.

The success of right handed high schoolers drafted near the top of a draft is near zero. Josh Beckett is the last one I can think of but I may be forgetting someone.

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1 minute ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Watching his highlites I'm lost as to how he wasnt the number 1 pitcher to go, ha. Or at least higher than 24. Must really hate high school pitchers.

Pipeline says some scouts project him as a reliever and not a starter so that is part of it I'm sure 

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Just now, wegner said:

Pipeline says some scouts project him as a reliever and not a starter so that is part of it I'm sure 

Maybe.  I still can’t believe the fat guy shaped like Joba Chamberlain with two pitches, one being a 94 mph fastball, was taken over him.  

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5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Please Jack show me factual backing that states the hit tool and power tool are the most volatile. I've been asking for this forever. I am genuinely curious as to where you got this information from.

Just 20 years of being a diehard baseball fan and a prospect nerd. I trust FV much more once they've been in the pro ranks for a full season, rather than as an amateur. A lot of it has to do with the Aluminum/Wood transition and quality of competition. When you're in the pros, You're facing everyone's Friday starter. 

I'm a math nerd and get really into the numbers. If you have the Davenport projections of Vaughn and Bleday, that would be great. I don't know where to get them. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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