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FS Podcast: Keith Law


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Great job getting Keith Law for your podcast. I just listened and it was very good. Keith seems to have a good pulse on the Sox. Likes the top guys, not so much Madrigal (which I get), likes this year’s draft and thinks we are not deep as a system (which is true). I guess I gave away the gist of the podcast but definitely worth a listen if anyone hasn’t yet. Great work!

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Law really likes Dalquist. Advanced strike thrower already with future projection. Noted that if he got to college and had a normal development path, he saw him as a guy that would be top half of the first round pick in the future. Really excited about this one.

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2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Law really likes Dalquist. Advanced strike thrower already with future projection. Noted that if he got to college and had a normal development path, he saw him as a guy that would be top half of the first round pick in the future. Really excited about this one.

That was really exciting as it's not something I'm sure I picked up on.

Continuing to get a better read on Beard. So yes, tools are there, exciting package and believes he can hit, but the risk profile is higher for him due to geographical reasons (MS being a poor baseball locale for development), but it's somewhat mitigated by his unique speed.

He's going to be fun to watch, and considering the pitchers probably won't work much this year, he's going to be easy to focus on in AZL.

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

That was really exciting as it's not something I'm sure I picked up on.

Continuing to get a better read on Beard. So yes, tools are there, exciting package and believes he can hit, but the risk profile is higher for him due to geographical reasons (MS being a poor baseball locale for development), but it's somewhat mitigated by his unique speed.

He's going to be fun to watch, and considering the pitchers probably won't work much this year, he's going to be easy to focus on in AZL.

As @ChiliIrishHammock24 said, 85 grade speed!

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2 minutes ago, bmags said:

That was really exciting as it's not something I'm sure I picked up on.

Continuing to get a better read on Beard. So yes, tools are there, exciting package and believes he can hit, but the risk profile is higher for him due to geographical reasons (MS being a poor baseball locale for development), but it's somewhat mitigated by his unique speed.

He's going to be fun to watch, and considering the pitchers probably won't work much this year, he's going to be easy to focus on in AZL.

Law verbatim on Dalquist.

Quote

"Really advanced command for a high school pitcher." "If he goes to college he's going to come out as a 1st rounder as long as healthy." "If he goes to school and has 3 years of success, and the body does fill out the way we think it's going to and a couple of years from now he's 93-96, he's a no doubt first rounder. He might be a top ten pick."

 

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I enjoyed hearing what he had to say on Thompson.

Said that he was looking like a first rounder until a bad spring pushed him down... if they right his ship he could be really good.

Also said there’s a chance spring wasn’t a fluke and he never even makes the bigs.

Called it a roll of the dice.

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38 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Law verbatim on Dalquist.

 

 

10 minutes ago, hi8is said:

I enjoyed hearing what he had to say on Thompson.

Said that he was looking like a first rounder until a bad spring pushed him down... if they right his ship he could be really good.

Also said there’s a chance spring wasn’t a fluke and he never even makes the bigs.

Called it a roll of the dice.

What happens if Dalquist bets on himself and doesn't sign? Seems like he can force the Sox to give him well over 2 million if he has top ten potential. 

Aren't pretty much all high school pitchers taken in the second round a roll of the dice? 

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8 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

 

What happens if Dalquist bets on himself and doesn't sign? Seems like he can force the Sox to give him well over 2 million if he has top ten potential. 

Aren't pretty much all high school pitchers taken in the second round a roll of the dice? 

It's a rarity that a player selected in the top 10 rounds does not sign. Teams absolutely do the diligence before making the pick due to the potential of losing the slot value. The White Sox know his number and planned to be able to meet it.

Regardless, Harold indicated that Dalquist has already signed.

Edited by DirtySox
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1 hour ago, OneDog847 said:

 

What happens if Dalquist bets on himself and doesn't sign? Seems like he can force the Sox to give him well over 2 million if he has top ten potential. 

Aren't pretty much all high school pitchers taken in the second round a roll of the dice? 

He has top 15 in three years potential IF his body fills out, he continues to develop as projected, and his fastball sits 93-96. 

Dalquist will sign, teams do not roll the dice in the first few rounds without fully knowing prep prospects signing bonus demands to forego college. This was a quality pick in the third round and the Sox adjusted their entire draft strategy in order to get Dalquist into the mix. 

Really please we added two promising prep arms in Thompson and Dalquist. Our system needed more talent like this in the low minors to develop. Both are easily 5 years away from the majors.

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Think his opinion on Moncada is a bit ill informed, especially when he in the next breath he mentions Eloy's advanced plate control as a huge long term plus.

Moncada is a very unique hitter.  He's 11th in avg exit velocity, just a tick below guys like Schwarber and Yelich and coupled with his elite speed allows him a massive 379 BABIP.  That will regress a bit but not too much, he should be able to produce BABIPs in the 330-360 range in his prime.  His walk rate is down to 7% but I'd expect it to go back up next year as pitcher's start to work around him.  His power is starting to become well known.

Law says Moncada will be an above average regular but he's already a borderline star even with the growing pains.  If he finishes this season with 4+ WAR the sky is the limit for him in 3-4 years as he matures mentally.  He could be a 6 WAR player which would certainly mean he lived up to his prospect billing.

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2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Law verbatim on Dalquist.

 

His top 50 report had him as "solid command and control" for his age so I think that's why I didn't pick up on it as much, but the "he could start in college right away" probably was the bigger tell.

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21 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Think his opinion on Moncada is a bit ill informed, especially when he in the next breath he mentions Eloy's advanced plate control as a huge long term plus.

Moncada is a very unique hitter.  He's 11th in avg exit velocity, just a tick below guys like Schwarber and Yelich and coupled with his elite speed allows him a massive 379 BABIP.  That will regress a bit but not too much, he should be able to produce BABIPs in the 330-360 range in his prime.  His walk rate is down to 7% but I'd expect it to go back up next year as pitcher's start to work around him.  His power is starting to become well known.

Law says Moncada will be an above average regular but he's already a borderline star even with the growing pains.  If he finishes this season with 4+ WAR the sky is the limit for him in 3-4 years as he matures mentally.  He could be a 6 WAR player which would certainly mean he lived up to his prospect billing.

^^^^

Moncada's likely to finish the season with 4.5-5.5 WAR. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

^^^^

Moncada's likely to finish the season with 4.5-5.5 WAR. 

It’s crazy how little people seem to be talking about this, especially relative to last year. He’s 24 and looks like a perennial all-star.

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