The 2020 Rotation - What’s Your Plan?

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, raBBit said:

His FIP is a full run + lower than his ERA. He strikes out over 10/9 and walks less then 3/9. You get his HR/FB% and LOB% in line with his career averages he's a solid #3. 

Javy Vazquez consistently underperformed his FIP. So did Samardzija. I'm tired of those types of pitchers. 

I looked up Wheeler on fangraphs, I guess he's been unlucky this year, but I still wouldn't give him more than 3/54. You could possibly talk me into 4/72. 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

And they may as well have offered them 20 bucks.  Making an offer doesn't get you credit.  Especially when there was a very small chance that the offer would have ever been accepted.  

I don't see any reason to expect that this team will spend on a premium free agent.  Because even though they tell us how "hard they try" they haven't done anything to show they will spend money like a big boy team.  I find it even more difficult to believe that this team will spend big money on a pitcher.  

I have every expectation of 

Giolito/Kopech/Cease/Lopez as the first 4.  With maybe 2 low cost veterans for depth.

So you too are of the opinion the Sox are now going to operate as one of the 3-4 lowest payrolls in the game moving forward.  K, got it.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when the Sox open up the pocketbook the next two years.  Will they beat everyone out for Cole?  Maybe not.  But they're not going to fill in the gaps off the clearance aisle any longer, IMO.  That's not to say they won't make minor signings, but I think they days of being a bottom 5 teams in payroll won't last very long.  

[OneDog847]

9 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

And they may as well have offered them 20 bucks.  Making an offer doesn't get you credit.  Especially when there was a very small chance that the offer would have ever been accepted.  

I don't see any reason to expect that this team will spend on a premium free agent.  Because even though they tell us how "hard they try" they haven't done anything to show they will spend money like a big boy team.  I find it even more difficult to believe that this team will spend big money on a pitcher.  

I have every expectation of 

Giolito/Kopech/Cease/Lopez as the first 4.  With maybe 2 low cost veterans for depth.

The Sox have still never given out a contract larger than 100 million. They have had many opportunities over the years but always seem to come up short for one reason or another. 

We will most likely be getting guys like Michael Wacha or Alex Wood when we can afford guys like Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgardner. 

 

[jenksycat]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

So you too are of the opinion the Sox are now going to operate as one of the 3-4 lowest payrolls in the game moving forward.  K, got it.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when the Sox open up the pocketbook the next two years.  Will they beat everyone out for Cole?  Maybe not.  But they're not going to fill in the gaps off the clearance aisle any longer, IMO.  That's not to say they won't make minor signings, but I think they days of being a bottom 5 teams in payroll won't last very long.  

So they get brownie points now just for an offer even if they know the offer is low?  That's an interesting take.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, jenksycat said:

So they get brownie points now just for an offer even if they know the offer is low?  That's an interesting take.

The White Sox offered more than 28 other clubs for Machado.  We don't know what the final offer for Harper was, but there were reports a few weeks ago that the Sox were super aggressive after missing out on Machado, even though the offer was never publicized.  It seems safe to assume they were at least in the top 3-4 in bidding on Harper.

I am not giving them brownie points, but the Sox were pretty damn close to getting Machado at $250M.  The man had purchased custom Sox gloves FFS.  Obviously it doesn't matter because they didn't get either of them, but the fact that they were that they offered a quarter billion+ dollars to those guys is certainly something they haven't done in the past.  I am willing to believe Hahn when he says that when the Sox are ready, they will spent on marquee free agents.  They're definitely closer to ready this coming offseason as opposed to last. 

I also understand why some Sox fans are reluctant to believe that the Sox will sign a marquee free agent.  We all had our hearts ripped out last winter.  I just find the folks that don't seem to grasp the fact that the Sox have under $20M committed to 2020 payroll, and if the go bargain hunting again, they could legitimately be sub $50M in payroll.  I see a higher likelihood of being north of $100M as opposed to sub $50M next season.  The Sox aren't suddenly going to operate as one the lowest payroll teams in the league from now on.  They have ALOT of money to spend.  

[OneDog847]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

So you too are of the opinion the Sox are now going to operate as one of the 3-4 lowest payrolls in the game moving forward.  K, got it.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when the Sox open up the pocketbook the next two years.  Will they beat everyone out for Cole?  Maybe not.  But they're not going to fill in the gaps off the clearance aisle any longer, IMO.  That's not to say they won't make minor signings, but I think they days of being a bottom 5 teams in payroll won't last very long.  

 

3 minutes ago, jenksycat said:

So they get brownie points now just for an offer even if they know the offer is low?  That's an interesting take.

The Sox had every opportunity to open up the checkbook this past offseason and got alligator arms when the bill came around. Why would the upcoming offseason be any different? 

It's a very interesting take indeed. I'm gonna walk into the Range Rover dealership down the street and offer them 30K cash for a 2020 Land Rover. Maybe I'll score some brownie points with the wife for trying. 

[elrockinMT]

Any of these gloom and doom predictions are the result of panicking.

Rodon

Giolito

Lopez

Cease

Kopech 

 

 

 

 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, OneDog847 said:

 

The Sox had every opportunity to open up the checkbook this past offseason and got alligator arms when the bill came around. Why would the upcoming offseason be any different? 

It's a very interesting take indeed. I'm gonna walk into the Range Rover dealership down the street and offer them 30K cash for a 2020 Land Rover. Maybe I'll score some brownie points with the wife for trying. 

If you fail to see the difference between last offseason and this coming, well....you clearly don't pay much attention.  

[beautox]

17 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

So you too are of the opinion the Sox are now going to operate as one of the 3-4 lowest payrolls in the game moving forward.  K, got it.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when the Sox open up the pocketbook the next two years.  Will they beat everyone out for Cole?  Maybe not.  But they're not going to fill in the gaps off the clearance aisle any longer, IMO.  That's not to say they won't make minor signings, but I think they days of being a bottom 5 teams in payroll won't last very long.  

I will be pleasantly surprised; but when the market served up Machado and Harper on their doorsteps they couldn't close the deal and thats with all major competitors out on them(NYY, BOS, CHC, LAD). I'm sure they'll pick up some mid tier vets and make some trades but I'll believe it when I see it. If you can't open up the pocket book for perennial all-stars that are 26, what makes you think they're going to pay top dollar against all the major franchises for top tier free agent players?

[OneDog847]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The White Sox offered more than 28 other clubs for Machado.  We don't know what the final offer for Harper was, but there were reports a few weeks ago that the Sox were super aggressive after missing out on Machado, even though the offer was never publicized.  It seems safe to assume they were at least in the top 3-4 in bidding on Harper.

I am not giving them brownie points, but the Sox were pretty damn close to getting Machado at $250M.  The man had purchased custom Sox gloves FFS.  Obviously it doesn't matter because they didn't get either of them, but the fact that they were that they offered a quarter billion+ dollars to those guys is certainly something they haven't done in the past.  I am willing to believe Hahn when he says that when the Sox are ready, they will spent on marquee free agents.  They're definitely closer to ready this coming offseason as opposed to last. 

I also understand why some Sox fans are reluctant to believe that the Sox will sign a marquee free agent.  We all had our hearts ripped out last winter.  I just find the folks that don't seem to grasp the fact that the Sox have under $20M committed to 2020 payroll, and if the go bargain hunting again, they could legitimately be sub $50M in payroll.  I see a higher likelihood of being north of $100M as opposed to sub $50M next season.  The Sox aren't suddenly going to operate as one the lowest payroll teams in the league from now on.  They have ALOT of money to spend.  

It is not safe to assume this at all. The Sox could have piovoted to Harper after Machado signed but there was nothing but crickets from the Sox camp in regards to Harper. KW even went on record after Machado signed saying something like the Sox couldn't afford a 300 million dollar contract because they had to take care of their young guys down the road. How do you expect to sign a guy who wants close to 300 million when you don't even have the $$ to do it? 

 

[turnin' two]

25 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

So you too are of the opinion the Sox are now going to operate as one of the 3-4 lowest payrolls in the game moving forward.  K, got it.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when the Sox open up the pocketbook the next two years.  Will they beat everyone out for Cole?  Maybe not.  But they're not going to fill in the gaps off the clearance aisle any longer, IMO.  That's not to say they won't make minor signings, but I think they days of being a bottom 5 teams in payroll won't last very long.  

Uh.  No.  Didn't say that.  I sure don't expect them to be in the top 3-4 either though.  And spending 120-140 million on a pitcher on his age 29-34 (maybe more) seasons doesn't seem like it is a realistic expectation.

The Sox may spend some money, but it will be on guys that are already on the roster and in the farm system, as well as guys to round out the roster.  I doubt they'll break the bank (or the mold) for a big free agent signing, especially a pitcher.  Which, honestly may be for the best because they seldom work out.  I think this team thinks they have the top end talent they need with Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Anderson etc on the offensive side, and they will count on Gio, Kopech and Cease on the pitching side.  

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, turnin' two said:

Uh.  No.  Didn't say that.  I sure don't expect them to be in the top 3-4 either though.  And spending 120-140 million on a pitcher on his age 29-34 (maybe more) seasons doesn't seem like it is a realistic expectation.

The Sox may spend some money, but it will be on guys that are already on the roster and in the farm system, as well as guys to round out the roster.  I doubt they'll break the bank (or the mold) for a big free agent signing, especially a pitcher.  Which, honestly may be for the best because they seldom work out.  I think this team thinks they have the top end talent they need with Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Anderson etc on the offensive side, and they will count on Gio, Kopech and Cease on the pitching side.  

You didn't blatantly say it, but if you don't think they're going to sign anyone but "low cost veterans", then they're going to be in the bottom tier of payrolls moving forward. 

The Sox need pitching help bad.  Gio, Kopech and Cease isn't going to be enough to actually be a good.  

[OneDog847]

3 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Uh.  No.  Didn't say that.  I sure don't expect them to be in the top 3-4 either though.  And spending 120-140 million on a pitcher on his age 29-34 (maybe more) seasons doesn't seem like it is a realistic expectation.

The Sox may spend some money, but it will be on guys that are already on the roster and in the farm system, as well as guys to round out the roster.  I doubt they'll break the bank (or the mold) for a big free agent signing, especially a pitcher.  Which, honestly may be for the best because they seldom work out.  I think this team thinks they have the top end talent they need with Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Anderson etc on the offensive side, and they will count on Gio, Kopech and Cease on the pitching side.  

This team won't be competing for anything till around 2022 if we are relying solely on all the prospects. 

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

It is not safe to assume this at all. The Sox could have piovoted to Harper after Machado signed but there was nothing but crickets from the Sox camp in regards to Harper. KW even went on record after Machado signed saying something like the Sox couldn't afford a 300 million dollar contract because they had to take care of their young guys down the road. How do you expect to sign a guy who wants close to 300 million when you don't even have the $$ to do it? 

 

There was a report that come out a few weeks ago (definitely since the season starter) that was posted here that said the Sox were very aggressive on Harper asfter Machado, despite it not really getting into the media.  I spent a couple minutes trying to find it, but this board's search capability isn't the strongest.  I believe it came from a notable writer - Heyman maybe?  

[turnin' two]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

You didn't blatantly say it, but if you don't think they're going to sign anyone but "low cost veterans", then they're going to be in the bottom tier of payrolls moving forward. 

The Sox need pitching help bad.  Gio, Kopech and Cease isn't going to be enough to actually be a good.  

Bottom tier next year... depends how you define it.  Bottom third?  I'd be surprised if they weren't.  They are 25th right now. 

I am yet to really see that this team wants to be good.  They haven't done anything to show that winning a championship is their ultimate goal.   This team has had two brief periods of any type of sustained success in 38 years (since Jerry bought the team). The early 90s (which the owner played a key role in scuttling) and the early 2000s.  Their much more established MO is bargain basement players, and bargain basement coaching, bargain basement scouting, bargain basement drafting and development.  Hell, they had 3 years to plan for this J2 signing period and have no one significant lined up.

Expecting them to all of a sudden start acting like the Yankees, Giants, Dodgers seems like a fool's errand.

[turnin' two]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

There was a report that come out a few weeks ago (definitely since the season starter) that was posted here that said the Sox were very aggressive on Harper asfter Machado, despite it not really getting into the media.  I spent a couple minutes trying to find it, but this board's search capability isn't the strongest.  I believe it came from a notable writer - Heyman maybe?  

I mean, they couldn't have tried that hard.  He signed for 25 mil AAV.  Significantly lower than most projections.  

[JuliusO1274]

1 hour ago, beautox said:

This is my "realistic" 2020 rotation; I don't think the sox are going to pursue Cole at anything more than cursory.

 

We shouldn't except this from the front office. There are no budget limitations for this team to pursue Cole for real and get him.

[OneDog847]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

There was a report that come out a few weeks ago (definitely since the season starter) that was posted here that said the Sox were very aggressive on Harper asfter Machado, despite it not really getting into the media.  I spent a couple minutes trying to find it, but this board's search capability isn't the strongest.  I believe it came from a notable writer - Heyman maybe?  

Dude, they were never serious on Harper or Machado. If they were serious they never would have dragged out the contract negotiations with Machado the way they did. JR didn't mess around when gave Albert Belle his big contract back in the day. He knew he wanted Belle and got the deal done early in the offseason. The pussyfooting around with Machado showed an organization that wasn't serious.

The Sox will spend some this offseason but it won't be on a guy like Bumgardner, Cole, or Rendon. They will spread the $80 million or so that they do spend on guys like Grandal, Puig, and Alex Wood. 

[raBBit]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Javy Vazquez consistently underperformed his FIP. So did Samardzija. I'm tired of those types of pitchers. 

I looked up Wheeler on fangraphs, I guess he's been unlucky this year, but I still wouldn't give him more than 3/54. You could possibly talk me into 4/72. 

Wheeler doesnt consistently underform his FIP though. In a SSS in 2019 he has. The data supports that. 

[OneDog847]

What about Cole Hamels or Hyun-Jin Ryu?

The Sox need a lefty in the rotation now that Rodon is on the shelf until 2021. Ryu is pitching like a Cy Young candidate this year but it feels like his arm could blow at any time. 

Hamels has been nothing but consistent since joining the Cubs. The Sox are gonna need a dependable workhorse like him in the rotation next year. 

[bighurt574]

In today's market, there really aren't many of these SP's who should be out of their budget. 

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

There was a report that come out a few weeks ago (definitely since the season starter) that was posted here that said the Sox were very aggressive on Harper asfter Machado, despite it not really getting into the media.  I spent a couple minutes trying to find it, but this board's search capability isn't the strongest.  I believe it came from a notable writer - Heyman maybe?  

When Scott Merkin at the White Sox official site posted his Q&A with Hahn he specifically asked him why wouldn't the Sox take the money they offered Machado and apply it to Harper (he hadn't signed yet). Hahn's answer was that he didn't want to go into that...so who knows if they did follow up and try to bid on Harper or not. I suspect given Kenny's published comments they did not for whatever reason or reasons.

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, Hatchetman said:

Lopez, Cease, and Kopech? That will be not good.

Ricky might need to embrace the starter reliever concept because of our unique situations.

[Thad Bosley]

2 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

Dude, they were never serious on Harper or Machado. If they were serious they never would have dragged out the contract negotiations with Machado the way they did. JR didn't mess around when gave Albert Belle his big contract back in the day. He knew he wanted Belle and got the deal done early in the offseason. The pussyfooting around with Machado showed an organization that wasn't serious.

The Sox will spend some this offseason but it won't be on a guy like Bumgardner, Cole, or Rendon. They will spread the $80 million or so that they do spend on guys like Grandal, Puig, and Alex Wood. 

This.  We pussyfooted around for a few months, while San Diego was the club that was truly aggressive, swooping in at the last minute and just getting it done.   

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

Dude, they were never serious on Harper or Machado. If they were serious they never would have dragged out the contract negotiations with Machado the way they did. JR didn't mess around when gave Albert Belle his big contract back in the day. He knew he wanted Belle and got the deal done early in the offseason. The pussyfooting around with Machado showed an organization that wasn't serious.

The Sox will spend some this offseason but it won't be on a guy like Bumgardner, Cole, or Rendon. They will spread the $80 million or so that they do spend on guys like Grandal, Puig, and Alex Wood. 

Agree to disagree on pretty much everything, especially the Sox never being serious. They were very serious, but they weren’t just going to hand the guys empty checkbooks. In hindsight, I don’t blame them. Some still do. I get it. 

The good news is, the Sox still have the ultimate financial flexibility and outside of some shitty injuries, they have seen some serious positive regression from some very key members of this future core. Missing on MM and Harper sucks, but its not the end of the rebuild. Brighter days are ahead, and I am hopeful that the Sox will eventually be aggressive on the FA market. I certainly don’t think the Sox FA moves in 2019 are any going to be any indication of a new trend.