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GT Chicago vs Chicago, 6/19/19, 7:05 CT


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2 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

“Willing” means nothing to me.  Is either guy a White Sox?  Even when there were limited suitors?  Nope.

”If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.”

This is just stupid.  They offered him one of the largest contracts of all time, but botched it at the end over the 10 year nonsense.  Guess what guy, no one is going to get a 10 year contract this offseason which helps us greatly.  The Sox will have money to buy multiple guys like Grandal, Ozuna, Wheeler, Bumgarner, who will all get three to five contracts max.  You are being completely irrational here (cue Nashville jokes).

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3 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

A team that truly wants a franchise player isn’t worried about guaranteeing years 9 and 10.  How long did Harper, Arenado, and Trout sign for?  If the Sox are too worried about the final two years of a contract that every other young top tier free agent gets guaranteed, then they had no chance to sign the guy to begin with.

Ok great, I mostly agree.  But that issue won’t apply to every single free agent in this offseason’s class.  Outside of Rendon & Cole, everyone will be fair game because the length of their contracts will be short.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is just stupid.  They offered him one of the largest contracts of all time, but botched it at the end over the 10 year nonsense.  Guess what guy, no one is going to get a 10 year contract this offseason which helps us greatly.  The Sox will have money to buy multiple guys like Grandal, Ozuna, Wheeler, Bumgarner, who will all get three to five contracts max.  You are being completely irrational here (cue Nashville jokes).

Never underestimate the market dude. 

Bumgarner could get 6, Cole will probably get 6, Ozuna will get 6 or 7, Wheeler will probably get 4 or 5. You're high if you think 5 max for these guys. 

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is just stupid.  They offered him one of the largest contracts of all time, but botched it at the end over the 10 year nonsense.  Guess what guy, no one is going to get a 10 year contract this offseason which helps us greatly.  The Sox will have money to buy multiple guys like Grandal, Ozuna, Wheeler, Bumgarner, who will all get three to five contracts max.  You are being completely irrational here (cue Nashville jokes).

And every top free agent or impending free agent player that was signed or extended last offseason received more than 8 guaranteed years.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Ok great, I mostly agree.  But that issue won’t apply to every single free agent in this offseason’s class.  Outside of Rendon & Cole, everyone will be fair game because the length of their contracts will be short.

I'm not sure that JR will ever hand out a 5 year contract to a pitcher again after getting burned by Danks. 

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4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If hey were that concerned, they could have front loaded it and off set it with 2 14M  years at the end. That would be chump change by then, offset it in 2019 and 2020. Machado gets his $300M, We get the player. Everyone wins. But no, they had to outsmart themselves. 

No offense Jack, but you don’t understand how the time value of money works.  Front loading is never better.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No offense Jack, but you don’t understand how the time value of money works.  Front loading is never better.

No I understand NPV and stuff like that. There is a cost to hedging your bet at the end, and that is paying more now. 

My argument is that with athletes, frontloading is an underrated option. 

You're paying the most during the years you're expecting the most production. You pay them less during the years you expect lesser production. That is smart GMing. Kicking the can down the road is a fools proposition. It is nice in theory, but in practice it comes back to bite you in the ass. 

It is just like taking out a loan. In the end, you end up paying more than the value of the thing you bought. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Ok great, I mostly agree.  But that issue won’t apply to every single free agent in this offseason’s class.  Outside of Rendon & Cole, everyone will be fair game because the length of their contracts will be short.

Fine, we agree on Rendon and Cole.  Not going to happen.

We disagree on Ozuna.  I agree that they could afford him but they will go the cheaper route and sign Puig.  And probably even market the Cuban aspect.

They will also re-sign Abreu to further the Cuban connection.

I don’t see the Sox signing Bumgarner either but both Wheeler and Wood are realistic starter options.

I won’t even venture to guess on signing relievers.

But I agree with Parkman that one or two of Hahn’s “the money will be spent” moves will be locking up Giolito and/or Moncada long-term.

 

Edited by Moan4Yoan
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18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No offense Jack, but you don’t understand how the time value of money works.  Front loading is never better.

Apparently neither do Jerry, Kenny, and Hahn. Because they refused to guarantee $25-$30 million a year to both Harper and Machado at the back-ends of their deals.

Edited by Moan4Yoan
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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Never underestimate the market dude. 

Bumgarner could get 6, Cole will probably get 6, Ozuna will get 6 or 7, Wheeler will probably get 4 or 5. You're high if you think 5 max for these guys. 

Zero chance anyone but Cole & Rendon get more than five years.  There have been five free agents total over the past four offseason who have gotten more than five year deals.  You honestly think that Bumgarner & Ozuna will join the club?  That’s not how the current free agency environment works.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Zero chance anyone but Cole & Rendon get more than five years.  There have been five free agents total over the past four offseason who have gotten more than five year deals.  You honestly think that Bumgarner & Ozuna will join the club?  That’s not how the current free agency environment works.

Yes, because they're going to be 29 on OD 2020. it is about the magical age of 35. This offseason should have told you that. 

Cole, Ozuna and Bumgarner will all get 6 years. 

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No I understand NPV and stuff like that. There is a cost to hedging your bet at the end, and that is paying more now. 

My argument is that with athletes, frontloading is an underrated option. 

You're paying the most during the years you're expecting the most production. You pay them less during the years you expect lesser production. That is smart GMing. Kicking the can down the road is a fools proposition. It is nice in theory, but in practice it comes back to bite you in the ass. 

It is just like taking out a loan. In the end, you end up paying more than the value of the thing you bought. 

No, all else being equal front-loading is never better and in your example you simply rearranged a $300M contract by putting more in the early years.  That’s the definition of destroying value.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is just stupid.  They offered him one of the largest contracts of all time, but botched it at the end over the 10 year nonsense.  Guess what guy, no one is going to get a 10 year contract this offseason which helps us greatly.  The Sox will have money to buy multiple guys like Grandal, Ozuna, Wheeler, Bumgarner, who will all get three to five contracts max.  

I think you greatly underestimate the effect of a TRULY competitive FA market.

 

All of the players you cited will have more than one or two teams vying for their signature. In order to sign any of the top player available in FA this offseason, one or more of the teams trying to sign them will have to offer more money, more years, or both. This FURTHER reinforces the imbecility of not signing Machado or Harper in a comparatively non-competitive offseason for top FAs this past winter.

Moreover, JR's reluctance to sign pitchers to longer term deals will likely keep them out of the, say Bumgarner, or other top SP sweepstakes.

 

On balance I agree with those who [IMO] rightly state that the money will be spent, but it will be spent on extensions, NOT FA additions. I hope I'm wrong, but I see no evidence to the contrary.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Zero chance anyone but Cole & Rendon get more than five years.  There have been five free agents total over the past four offseason who have gotten more than five year deals.  You honestly think that Bumgarner & Ozuna will join the club?  That’s not how the current free agency environment works.

A 31 year old A.J. Pollock got a 5 year deal last offseason (5th year is a player option).  I don’t think it’s crazy to think a 29 year old and better player in Ozuna will get 6 years.

Edited by Moan4Yoan
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1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think you greatly underestimate the effect of a TRULY competitive FA market.

 

All of the players you cited will have more than one or two teams vying for their signature. In order to sign any of the top player available in FA this offseason, one or more of the teams trying to sign them will have to offer more money, more years, or both. This FURTHER reinforces the imbecility of not signing Machado or Harper in a comparatively non-competitive offseason for top FAs this past winter.

Moreover, JR's reluctance to sign pitchers to longer term deals will likely keep them out of the, say Bumgarner, or other top SP sweepstakes.

 

On balance I agree with those who [IMO] rightly state that the money will be spent, but it will be spent on extensions, NOT FA additions. I hope I'm wrong, but I see no evidence to the contrary.

I’ve already stated numerous times we are unlikely to land Rendon & Cole because there will be enough competition for those guys that pushes prices or years to point that we won’t like.  However, we will have so much money to burn next offseason that the next tier of guys will be ours for the taking.  The reason I’m confident of this is I don’t think anyone gets over a $100M deal next offseason outside of Rendon & Cole.  That’s a space we’ve been successful in in the past in terms of landing actual free agents (Abreu, Dunn, Melky, Robertson).

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6 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

A 31 year old A.J. Pollock got a 5 year deal last offseason (5th year is a player option).  I don’t think it’s crazy to think a 29 year old and better player in Ozuna will get 6 years.

Pollack also took a $12M AAV.  I’m expecting a 5/$90M deal for Ozuna which is 50% higher than what AJ got.

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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve already stated numerous times we are unlikely to land Rendon & Cole because there will be enough competition for those guys that pushes prices or years to point that we won’t like.  However, we will have so much money to burn next offseason that the next tier of guys will be ours for the taking.  The reason I’m confident of this is I don’t think anyone gets over a $100M deal next offseason outside of Rendon & Cole.  That’s a space we’ve been successful in in the past in terms of landing actual free agents (Abreu, Dunn, Melky, Robertson).

Yes, and no other teams were really competing for the signatures of Abreu, Dunn, Melky, or Robertson. That's the point: In a competitive FA marketplace this FO always wusses out, or finds an excuse, or in some other way utterly fails to bring the targeted player here.

 

This offseason will likely be much more competitive than last offseason. History has shown this FO's cowardice, incompetence, and mental weakness as being barriers to them landing anything of note. Signing the piles of trash that no one wants, like Jon Jay? This FO is all over them like stink on shit.

 

But for legit GOOD players ACTUALLY signing here? In a competitive FA market? [In other words, not "we made a competitive offer, but we were too mentally weak to convince JR to open the checkbook."] Good luck with that pipe dream.

Edited by Two-Gun Pete
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21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm not sure that JR will ever hand out a 5 year contract to a pitcher again after getting burned by Danks. 

I wouldn't either. Not because Danks but I wouldn't sign a pitcher that wasn't on my team for that long of a contract. If they're on your team you know their medicals inside and out. You just can't do that for a pitcher from another organization. 

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