2019 Prospect Development Check-in

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright, as someone who enjoys following our minor league system, I thought it would be fun to check and see how our key prospects have played so far this year relative to expectations and use it as a proxy for how our development staff has done in 2019.  For this exercise, I’m taking FutureSox’s top 30 (excluding guys who never played in a minor league game this season) and placing them into five segments from “Greatly Exceeded” to “Greatly Underperformed”. Hi 

Group 1: Greatly Exceeded:

• #4: Luis Robert, CF

Group 2: Exceeded:

• #5: Nick Madrigal, 2B
• #8: Zack Collins, C
• #15: Steele Walker, OF
• #24: Konnor Pilkington, LHP

Group 3: Met:

• #3: Dylan Cease, RHP
• #22: Jimmy Lambert, RHP
• #23: Bernardo Flores, LHP
• #26: Lenyn Sosa, SS
• #28: Jonathan Stiever, RHP

Group 4: Underperformed:

• #7: Micker Adolfo, OF
• #9: Luis Basabe, CF
• #16: Seby Zavala, C
• #18: Gavin Sheets, 1B
• #21: Bryce Bush, 3B
• #25: Laz Rivera, SS

Group 5: Greatly Underperformed:

• #10: Luis Gonzalez, OF
• #11: Blake Rutherford, OF
• #12: Alec Hansen, RHP
• #13: Zack Burdi, RHP
• #17: Ian Hamilton, RHP
• #19: Jordan Stephens, RHP
• #27: Luis Curbelo, SS
• #29: Kodi Medsiros, LHP
• #30: Spencer Adams, RHP

As you can see above, it’s been a very disappointing season for the system from a development standpoint.  Yes, Robert has been insanely good and the other two key prospects (Cease & Madrigal) have met expectations at the very least.  After there is simply so much more bad than good.  The failures of the entire AA outfield group and many of our advanced pitching prospects has really killed the depth of the system.  And I’m not really accounting for injuries even, which would paint an even uglier picture.  

Obviously we’re just over halfway through the season, so there’s plenty of time for things to change, but at some point if we don’t start seeing some rapid improvement I do wonder if Getz is ever held accountable.  It’s really hard to argue that him and his staff are doing a good job based on the above analysis.

[Chicago White Sox]

Would love to see others views on this.  Feel free to criticize my groupings or to create your own.  I did this fairly quickly and I’m sure there will be a few picks that will be a bit contentious.

[bmags]

Not trying to be negative but I would have all of your “exceeded” as merely “met”. But meeting expectations is part a matter of what they were and that’s okay.

 

[ron883]

Great thread. I would personally nmove Bush to category 3. He's very raw and young for where he is at. The AA crew has been extremely disappointing though, minus Madrigal and Robert

[BamaDoc]

No doubt there has been some who underperformed and our injury luck has seemed to be really bad.  I looked at some of the higher thought of systems (Braves, Pads etc) awhile back and found better injury luck but also a number of guys struggling.  It is also hard sometimes to just look at the year long numbers.  Some times it takes guys awhile to adjust.  Here is a prospects monthly OPS line.......April .578   May  .679    June  .790     Roughly equal plate appearances by month so does he suck or is he adjusting?  Obviously, this is just one stat and there is a lot more to it than one stat but it illustrates my point.  If this player gets a July-Aug OPS in the .800s, I would say it was a really solid year and look to move them up a level and might expect/hope for a similar season next year.  Any guesses who it is?

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

Not trying to be negative but I would have all of your “exceeded” as merely “met”. But meeting expectations is part a matter of what they were and that’s okay.

 

I really was torn on Madrigal & Collins.  For Nick, I’m placing extra weight on his AA numbers, in particular his 9% BB rate and his sub 2% K rate.  IMO, that combo at the AA level is elite (and practically unheard of) and while I’d love to see more power I’ll wait and see how he does once introduced to the juiced ball and a more power friendly environment in Charlotte.  As for Collins, I’m probably being a bit kind there.  I guess I thought he might struggle a bit in his first go at AAA and he more or less was the same as he was in AA with the power playing up for obvious reasons.  In all honestly, he should probably only be a “Met”.

My expectations for Pilkington were incredibly low, so he’s pretty much an “Exceeds” by default for me.  Walker has improved all facets of his game this year (at least with the bat) and I think he warrants an “Exceeds” as a result.

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Great thread. I would personally nmove Bush to category 3. He's very raw and young for where he is at. The AA crew has been extremely disappointing though, minus Madrigal and Robert

I was torn on Bush, but I ultimately put him in the “Underperformed” group because of his 36% K rate and just how bad he’s been in June.  For me, trend is very important when evaluating young prospects and while he may have legit reasons for his recent struggles, it’s still a bit of a concern until we start to see a rebound.  Still plenty of time for him to right the ship though.

[bmags]

Pilkington was a 3 year starter in the SEC. Him being successful against Hi-A hitters with the same stuff is not impressive to me. Better than the alternative though.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

No doubt there has been some who underperformed and our injury luck has seemed to be really bad.  I looked at some of the higher thought of systems (Braves, Pads etc) awhile back and found better injury luck but also a number of guys struggling.  It is also hard sometimes to just look at the year long numbers.  Some times it takes guys awhile to adjust.  Here is a prospects monthly OPS line.......April .578   May  .679    June  .790     Roughly equal plate appearances by month so does he suck or is he adjusting?  Obviously, this is just one stat and there is a lot more to it than one stat but it illustrates my point.  If this player gets a July-Aug OPS in the .800s, I would say it was a really solid year and look to move them up a level and might expect/hope for a similar season next year.  Any guesses who it is?

Gavin Sheets, but I was going to guess Rutherford first.  I completely agree with what you’re saying.  Part of the reason I put Sosa in the “Met” group because he’s been much better in May & June vs April.  Improvement/trend does make a huge difference, which is why these groupings could change significantly by the end of the season.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Pilkington was a 3 year starter in the SEC. Him being successful against Hi-A hitters with the same stuff is not impressive to me. Better than the alternative though.

But does he have the same stuff?  Didn’t he lose quite a bit of velocity over the course of his college career?  Again, that’s probably more of a miss on the part of my expectations than anything, but I didn’t think he’d be this good without a return to form velocity wise and I don’t think that’s actually happened.

[TaylorStSox]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But does he have the same stuff?  Didn’t he lose quite a bit of velocity over the course of his college career?  Again, that’s probably more of a miss on the part of my expectations than anything, but I didn’t think he’d be this good without a return to form velocity wise and I don’t think that’s actually happened.

He's a lefty that throws multiple offspeed pitches for strikes. Who cares about his velocity.

 

Putting Basabe and Adolfo anywhere on the list is dumb. I'd move Rutherford up. Most of the tier 5 players are no longer prospects due to injury. 

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

He's a lefty that throws multiple offspeed pitches for strikes. Who cares about his velocity.

 

Putting Basabe and Adolfo anywhere on the list is dumb. I'd move Rutherford up. Most of the tier 5 players are no longer prospects due to injury. 

I’m not sure I get the velocity comment, are you suggesting because he’s left-handed velocity doesn’t matter?

[TaylorStSox]

25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m not sure I get the velocity comment, are you suggesting because he’s left-handed velocity doesn’t matter?

I'm not suggesting anything. I literally said it doesn't matter as much because he's a lefty that throws multiple breaking balls for strikes. He's a 3rd starter at best. 

[fathom]

Great list CWS. As bmags said, only Robert has really exceeded expectations this year. It’s definitely been a down season, but considering Robert was the most important prospect we have, it hasn’t been a disaster so far.  I would love for some of the disappointments to rebound a bit to become tradable assets.

[SoxAce]

Adolfo in the underperforming is a bit harsh. You really can't put a season ending injury on him. Kid was probably the best player for the Barons before he got hurt in the sample size. 

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Adolfo in the underperforming is a bit harsh. You really can't put a season ending injury on him. Kid was probably the best player for the Barons before he got hurt in the sample size. 

I was basing his ranking on his performance during an admittedly small sample of games.  Based on that alone, it’s hard to say he met expectations with a 38% K rate and minimal power even with an improved BB rate.

[SoxAce]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I was basing his ranking on his performance during an admittedly small sample of games.  Based on that alone, it’s hard to say he met expectations with a 38% K rate and minimal power even with an improved BB rate.

It was 23 games lol. Hell that entire team was hitting like shit the first month of the season. He was their only bright spot other than maybe Forbes. Not a doubt in my mind had he stayed healthy, he'd be right there or at least behind only Robert and Madrigal as hitters. Adolfo always starts slow then adjusts at a new level.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, SoxAce said:

It was 23 games lol. Hell that entire team was hitting like shit the first month of the season. He was their only bright spot other than maybe Forbes. Not a doubt in my mind had he stayed healthy, he'd be right there or at least behind only Robert and Madrigal as hitters. Adolfo always starts slow then adjusts at a new level.

Adolfo had a .918 OPS / 152 wRC+ last year in April (24 games), so I’m not sure the slow start angle automatically applies here.  That being said, while I don’t think the sample size this year is statistically significant by any means, I disagree his start was a bright spot.  The walks were nice, but they came with a ton of K’s and no power.  I’m optimistic he would have improved over the course of the season, but I’m still going to call it a slow start.

[smellysox]

I love this post! I pretty much agree with most of your groupings. Except for maybe Bush. He's only a year removed from high school and maybe not as raw as at the beginning of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure what my expectations were for him.

One player that is a positive that's not mentioned here is Cade McClure. I realize he's not top 30. But he's probably not to far from it. He's been pretty good since coming back from his injury last year - and see he's been promoted to the dash. Rutherford and Hansen have shown signs here and there. But definitely disappointing. Still plenty of time to turn things around for some of these guys. And now the short season teams are starting. So I'm hopeful. 

But the injuries have been like a 100 year storm with this organization. Yeah I get what you're saying about Getz and the responsibility for player development. But I think I would still take Cris Getz over Buddy Bell and whatever he was doing with us. Lol

[OneDog847]

22 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Adolfo in the underperforming is a bit harsh. You really can't put a season ending injury on him. Kid was probably the best player for the Barons before he got hurt in the sample size. 

This dude is always hurt. The only thing he has proven is that he can't stay healthy. 

[bmags]

17 hours ago, smellysox said:

I love this post! I pretty much agree with most of your groupings. Except for maybe Bush. He's only a year removed from high school and maybe not as raw as at the beginning of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure what my expectations were for him.

One player that is a positive that's not mentioned here is Cade McClure. I realize he's not top 30. But he's probably not to far from it. He's been pretty good since coming back from his injury last year - and see he's been promoted to the dash. Rutherford and Hansen have shown signs here and there. But definitely disappointing. Still plenty of time to turn things around for some of these guys. And now the short season teams are starting. So I'm hopeful. 

But the injuries have been like a 100 year storm with this organization. Yeah I get what you're saying about Getz and the responsibility for player development. But I think I would still take Cris Getz over Buddy Bell and whatever he was doing with us. Lol

Another non-top 30 success is Ti'Quan Forbes, who has not hit for any power in Birmingham but has been an OBP machine. His contact is decent but he's 22 in birmingham, has handled the jump well, and maybe he taps into power but he may very well be a nice depth piece or the type of piece that could net a good MR at the deadline next year.

[35thstreetswarm]

On ‎6‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 9:10 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

 

As you can see above, it’s been a very disappointing season for the system from a development standpoint.  Yes, Robert has been insanely good and the other two key prospects (Cease & Madrigal) have met expectations at the very least.  After there is simply so much more bad than good.  The failures of the entire AA outfield group and many of our advanced pitching prospects has really killed the depth of the system.  And I’m not really accounting for injuries even, which would paint an even uglier picture.  

Obviously we’re just over halfway through the season, so there’s plenty of time for things to change, but at some point if we don’t start seeing some rapid improvement I do wonder if Getz is ever held accountable.  It’s really hard to argue that him and his staff are doing a good job based on the above analysis.

I guess I look at the minor league development story differently.  The goal of the rebuild is to build a core for a major league contender - see Correa/Altuve/Springer/Bregman; Bryant/Baez/Contreras/[insert marginal Cubs core member here].  We appear to have several pieces of that core that have already graduated to the MLB level and are excelling this season (Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Giolito, etc.)  We have several other pieces either coming back from injury or looking like they're on track to arrive on schedule (Kopech, Robert, Madrigal, Cease).  We just drafted a guy in Vaughn who seems likely to be a fast riser through the system.  There are other potential "wildcards" on the outskirts of this group that could still have big impact (Rutherford, Collins, Dunning, Basabe, Burger, Adolfo, Bush, Burdi, etc.).  Looks to me like we're on track to build our core which, supplemented with free agency, could give us a good team to root for, which is the name of the game here.

Most prospects don't pan out, either because of injury or underperformance.  If you're hoping for a large success rate from *any* list of thirty prospects you're bound to be disappointed.  The Sox don't need dozens of prospects to "hit" for the rebuild to be a success.  Just a few important ones.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I guess I look at the minor league development story differently.  The goal of the rebuild is to build a core for a major league contender - see Correa/Altuve/Springer/Bregman; Bryant/Baez/Contreras/[insert marginal Cubs core member here].  We appear to have several pieces of that core that have already graduated to the MLB level and are excelling this season (Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Giolito, etc.)  We have several other pieces either coming back from injury or looking like they're on track to arrive on schedule (Kopech, Robert, Madrigal, Cease).  We just drafted a guy in Vaughn who seems likely to be a fast riser through the system.  There are other potential "wildcards" on the outskirts of this group that could still have big impact (Rutherford, Collins, Dunning, Basabe, Burger, Adolfo, Bush, Burdi, etc.).  Looks to me like we're on track to build our core which, supplemented with free agency, could give us a good team to root for, which is the name of the game here.

Most prospects don't pan out, either because of injury or underperformance.  If you're hoping for a large success rate from *any* list of thirty prospects you're bound to be disappointed.  The Sox don't need dozens of prospects to "hit" for the rebuild to be a success.  Just a few important ones.

Behind each of those cores you mentioned was a substantial number of prospects beneath them that have been used to supplement the core through trades or adding to the ball club. So yes, depth behind the main pieces will be very important, or else we need to rely on free agency to constantly fill gaps.

[35thstreetswarm]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Behind each of those cores you mentioned was a substantial number of prospects beneath them that have been used to supplement the core through trades or adding to the ball club. So yes, depth behind the main pieces will be very important, or else we need to rely on free agency to constantly fill gaps.

Fair enough.  But most of those depth prospects fall into the same category as our second and third-tier guys:  players with flaws, injuries, and/or on a non-linear development path that you could still pencil into an MLB lineup one day if you squint your eyes.  Some become bench players, most are forgotten a few years after they are traded away.  I think we're doing all right in that respect.  It would be great if we could produce five more Eloy-caliber players to trade away but it's not necessary.

Edited June 26, 2019 by 35thstreetswarm