All Star Jose Abreu

[Eminor3rd]

16 hours ago, SI1020 said:

I'll bet I've done more research than 90% of hard core baseball fans and I absolutely HATE sabermetrics. I guess I'm still an ape. Now as to the poster who mentioned RBIs. When we compute say a batting average we have a number that corresponds to 1.000 which would be a hit in every official at bat. Every time a batter comes up he has the potential to have at least one rbi. Figure out his rbi percentage like we do his BA and you'll more than likely see that those guys with hi rbi totals have them for a very good reason. They are productive with men on base. My biggest gripe with sabermetrics aside from the snide arrogance of its devotees is that the thumb is on the scale on all of their most hallowed stats. Not only that but these stats are continually revised as this or that formula is "tweaked." Kind of like Winston Smith and his job in the records department of the Ministry of Truth. Did you know that WAR has been recalculated numerous times? Baseball-Reference twice had massive readjustments in their Pitching and Fielding WAR stats. The way the all time rankings shifted was breathtaking and ridiculous at the same time. When I called them on it, asked for an explanation in detail they pretty much told me I was an idiot and go run along and play. 

Now as to the subject at hand. I will never understand the vitriol so many Sox fans have had for Jose Abreu. He is the most productive hitter on the team since Frank Thomas. HIs BA has been down a bit this year but he has always been streaky and he's a hot streak or two away from approaching .300 at the plate. His defense is suspect but I like the way he scoops, and that is very important for me when it comes to a first baseman. Tim Anderson in particular owes him a bunch of steak dinners or arroz con pollo if Jose prefers something like that. He deserves his spot on the AL all star team.  

I know this post will sink my already low rating down even further. I've been in love with data, stats of all kind since I was 6 and 1/2 years old and to me saying sabermetrics/analytics whatever is highly flawed is the understatement of the year. At least they still count wins and losses the old fashioned way. I wonder how long that will even last in today's bizarro world. 

 

This is like the baseball equivalent of anti-vaxxer talk

[Bananarchy]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m so sick of this “TWTW” / anti “statnik” charade you put on.  Me being objective about Jose’s value has nothing to do with me liking him or not.  I said I’d bring him back on a two year deal in this very thread.  I rock an authentic Jose Abreu jersey to all the games I go to.  I think his value to clubhouse is tremendous.  I’m a huge Jose fan at the end of the day.

All that being said, comparing his offensive numbers to Machado to try to justify paying him more is without question poor logic.  Positions matter and a good 1B should hit better than a 3B all else being equal.  Ballparks matter and the Grate is a much more friendly stadium than Petco.  And when it comes to handing out contracts, age matters because you are paying for future production.  When combined, all these factors make Manny Machado a terrible comp for what Jose Abreu should get if extended.

If you want to make a case for paying Jose more, you guys should be citing someone like Carlos Santana who got 3/$60M coming off a 115 wRC+ season as a 31 year old.  However, that would require critical thinking and you & Vile would rather just be emotional and compare him to the young, “dick” 3B.

100% 

Tough decisions must be made. 

[vilehoopster]

47 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

This is like the baseball equivalent of anti-vaxxer talk

No, it's not. Anti-vaxxers quote all these obsurce stats to justify what they do, you know, stats like fwar or wRC+. You use stats that nobody knows anything about, stats that are so numerologic and obsurce that they hide any reality. 

Anti-vaxxers have to do this to justify their ridiculous beliefs, beliefs that go against the medical establishment, you know, real doctors and the AMA. 

People use all these silly stats to downplay Abreu's importance and value as a player. And they need to do this because their anti-Jose arguments go against the baseball establishment. You know, the guys who put him on the last two all-star teams, MLB.com naming Jose one of the 100 best players in baseball this spring when no other White Sox made the list. You know those guys, those guys who really know nothing about baseball in the majors, just sportswriters, coaches, and other players. 

Yes, we big Abreu fans, we're the anti-vaxxers in this metaphor, lol. 

Edited July 5, 2019 by vilehoopster

[SI1020]

3 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

This is like the baseball equivalent of anti-vaxxer talk

No I have argued forcefully and with detail on the subject numerous times. I liked Bill James in the late 80s. Devoured his stuff in the beginning. Now it's all totally off the rails. If you want to believe Rick Rueschel was as good or better than Juan Marichal or that Whitey Ford wasn't a great pitcher go for it. If you like continually shifting realities be my guest. Three outcome baseball is great ain't it? At least Jason Benneti, who loves analytics understands that WAR is cumulative and traditional stats can't be ignored. Your comment proves my point about snide and arrogant. All my kids and all of their kids were vaccinated. I'm alive today because of a real scientific advance that made a previously impossible surgery possible. I love data and stats of all kind. If I ran a baseball team I'd make good use of them. I just wouldn't put myself in an analytics straight jacket.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2019 by SI1020
Grammar.

[chitownsportsfan]

Bruh you can't even figure out how to format your posts.  I like the fact that Baseball Reference updating their formula to improve WAR is what turned you off it.

Nobody in the "stats industry" will claim WAR is the only stat that matters or that it's perfect.  You're knocking down straw men.

If you're just epically trolling kudos I guess.

[supernuke]

10 hours ago, greg775 said:

 You can't talk logic into people who have their minds made up. 

This just made my day. Too funny.

[Moan4Yoan]

10 hours ago, greg775 said:

For you to not tip your cap to Jose for his having an almost identical season as the great Machado is really sad. Just tell us you dislike Jose and won't ever change your mind. We will understand.

Greg, are you dense?  Did you not just gloss over two posts in which Chicago White Sox and I explained why Machado is worth more than Abreu?  Go back and read the posts before you utter more BS.

[Moan4Yoan]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m so sick of this “TWTW” / anti “statnik” charade you put on.  Me being objective about Jose’s value has nothing to do with me liking him or not.  I said I’d bring him back on a two year deal in this very thread.  I rock an authentic Jose Abreu jersey to all the games I go to.  I think his value to clubhouse is tremendous.  I’m a huge Jose fan at the end of the day.

All that being said, comparing his offensive numbers to Machado to try to justify paying him more is without question poor logic.  Positions matter and a good 1B should hit better than a 3B all else being equal.  Ballparks matter and the Grate is a much more friendly stadium than Petco.  And when it comes to handing out contracts, age matters because you are paying for future production.  When combined, all these factors make Manny Machado a terrible comp for what Jose Abreu should get if extended.

If you want to make a case for paying Jose more, you guys should be citing someone like Carlos Santana who got 3/$60M coming off a 115 wRC+ season as a 31 year old.  However, that would require critical thinking and you & Vile would rather just be emotional and compare him to the young, “dick” 3B.

You said if much better than I could.  Fantastic post.

[greg775]

2 hours ago, SI1020 said:

No I have argued forcefully and with detail on the subject numerous times. I liked Bill James in the late 80s. Devoured his stuff in the beginning. Now it's all totally off the rails. If you want to believe Rick Rueschel was as good or better than Juan Marichal or that Whitey Ford wasn't a great pitcher go for it. If you like continually shifting realities be my guest. Three outcome baseball is great ain't it? At least Jason Benneti, who loves analytics understands that WAR is cumulative and traditional stats can't be ignored. Your comment proves my point about snide and arrogant. All my kids and all of their kids were vaccinated. I'm alive today because of a real scientific advance that made a previously impossible surgery possible. I love data and stats of all kind. If I ran a baseball team I'd make good use of them. I just wouldn't put myself in an analytics straight jacket.

Great great post. I love these posters not married to the advanced stats.

[greg775]

4 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

they need to do this because their anti-Jose arguments go against the baseball establishment. You know, the guys who put him on the last two all-star teams, MLB.com naming Jose one of the 100 best players in baseball this spring when no other White Sox made the list. You know those guys, those guys who really know nothing about baseball in the majors, just sportswriters, coaches, and other players. 

You are appreciated, vile, good stuff.

[greg775]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I said I’d bring him back on a two year deal in this very thread.  I rock an authentic Jose Abreu jersey to all the games I go to.  I think his value to clubhouse is tremendous.  I’m a huge Jose fan at the end of the day.

I haven't called anybody that 'nik' word in a long time. I try to be respectful. I'm using "advanced stat lovers" or "advanced stat people" or stat worshipers, etc, and I always say "many" not all any more. there are no absolutes.

I read your full post but like the above mentioned part the best. i did not realize these things when I was rebelling greatly against you. The fact you wear an Abreu jersey is good enough for me. You are not a Jose disliker. Sorry for lumping you in the wrong group. I agree with the above mentioned lines and say thank you for recognizing Jose's value!  I also love Vile's logical defense of Jose as well.

But thank you Chicago White Sox! You wear the jersey of Abreu and said you recognize his value to the clubhouse, etc. You would win any arguments how Manny is more valuable than Jose but thank you for the Jose love! You are OK in my book. Sorry if I implied you were ill informed! You are OK by me.

BTW I think this is a correct statement by you. You said: "All that being said, comparing his offensive numbers to Machado to try to justify paying him more is without question poor logic.  Positions matter and a good 1B should hit better than a 3B all else being equal.  Ballparks matter and the Grate is a much more friendly stadium than Petco.  And when it comes to handing out contracts, age matters because you are paying for future production.  When combined, all these factors make Manny Machado a terrible comp for what Jose Abreu should get if extended." (All true, I think Vile and I realize Jose isn't worth Manny money, we'd just like to see him take a bit of Jerry's money. I was saying instead of the one-year 8 million somebody mentioned, I'd like to see him get 3 years 39 million. Then all one year deals the rest of his career. Or two years 26 mill with a team option for a third year.

Edited July 5, 2019 by greg775

[chitownsportsfan]

Guys WSI is -------->

[Richie]

11 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

 

Anti-vaxxers have to do this to justify their ridiculous beliefs, beliefs that go against the medical establishment, you know, real doctors and the AMA. 

 

Anti-sabers have to do this in order to justify their ridiculous beliefs. Beliefs which go against the baseball establishment. You know, real general managers, scouts and the MLB. 

 

See how easy that was? Yes, you are the equivalent of an "anti-vaxxer" and your arguments against it are eerily parallel. 

 

Edited July 6, 2019 by Richie

[Richie]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

 I was saying instead of the one-year 8 million somebody mentioned, I'd like to see him get 3 years 39 million. Then all one year deals the rest of his career. Or two years 26 mill with a team option for a third year.

Jesus. lol. I am definitely a Jose fan, but the guy is about to be 33 and has clearly demonstrated a slight drop off the past two seasons. Not only are we entertaining the idea of paying a declining player 13 mil per, for 3 years until he's 36 years old. We're talking about our plans for AFTER that too? 

Edited July 5, 2019 by Richie

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, Richie said:

Jesus. lol. I am definitely a Jose fan, but the guy is about to be 33 and has clearly demonstrated a slight drop off the past two seasons. Not only are we entertaining the idea of paying a declining player 13 mil per, for 3 years until he's 36 years old. We're talking about our plans for AFTER that too? 

some guy on Sox Machine wants to give him 6 years!

[ron883]

43 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

some guy on Sox Machine wants to give him 6 years!

That's actually just greg's account over there

[poppysox]

51 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

some guy on Sox Machine wants to give him 6 years!

I would think RH is working on a 1 or 2 year extension with Abreu.  If a deal can't be reached Jose will go to the highest bidder.  Can't end up with nothing for him at the seasons end.  My guess is 2 years at 25M with an option.

'

[Quin]

Man, I love Jose.

Seeing this thread get torn apart because his All Star selection is somehow proof that sabermetrics is bunk is mindblowing and disheartening.

[Flash]

28 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I would think RH is working on a 1 or 2 year extension with Abreu.  If a deal can't be reached Jose will go to the highest bidder.  Can't end up with nothing for him at the seasons end.  My guess is 2 years at 25M with an option.

'

yep.

[chitownsportsfan]

32 minutes ago, Quin said:

Man, I love Jose.

Seeing this thread get torn apart because his All Star selection is somehow proof that sabermetrics is bunk is mindblowing and disheartening.

You think his agent will cite "rbi percentage" in the talks?

[Quin]

26 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You think his agent will cite "rbi percentage" in the talks?

He'll cite whatever makes him look best, traditional or sabermetrics.

[poppysox]

55 minutes ago, Quin said:

He'll cite whatever makes him look best, traditional or sabermetrics.

That would be HR, RBI and mentoring.

[Balta1701]

50 minutes ago, Quin said:

He'll cite whatever makes him look best, traditional or sabermetrics.

To some extent he won't be wrong either. His splits with RISP are really F***ing good. Career .320 average, .949 OPS, 2019 .337 average, .947 OPS. You put him 5th in this lineup next year where he's following a bunch of good young hitters and he might knock in 120 runs. We shouldn't ignore this, those are solid numbers. He knows how to approach an at bat with runners on base, we should take advantage of this. That 2/$25, I'd be ok with that. He's really good at this, if he's willing to DH, that's a solid contract for him. You could talk me into a few million more than that.

But that thing he's really good at doesn't mean I'm going to overlook his other numbers. With no one on base this year, .243 average, .286 OBP, .778 OPS - those are Palka numbers. He's a really good RBI guy. He's got good power even as other things weaken. He's a limited hitter and a limited player in other ways, and it annoys me that I have to point that out because some people want to pretend that all we need to care about for him is the stats where he looks good and the others don't count for whatever reason. That prompts people like me to point out the stats that are good and the stats that aren't so good, and anything but eternal praise is somehow judged as an insult by certain people. I want that to stop. I just spent a whole paragraph praising how good he is with RISP and saying why that is valuable, let's accept that as a good situational hitter.

Finally, please, for God's sake, can we never mention him in the same breath as #35 again. Jose Abreu is a good player, particularly with RISP. Frank Thomas put up a career 1.019 OPS with RISP, and that's counting the years when he was declining. Jose Abreu is a solid player and a really good RBI man. Frank Thomas is a f***ing legend. 

[poppysox]

27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

To some extent he won't be wrong either. His splits with RISP are really F***ing good. Career .320 average, .949 OPS, 2019 .337 average, .947 OPS. You put him 5th in this lineup next year where he's following a bunch of good young hitters and he might knock in 120 runs. We shouldn't ignore this, those are solid numbers. He knows how to approach an at bat with runners on base, we should take advantage of this. That 2/$25, I'd be ok with that. He's really good at this, if he's willing to DH, that's a solid contract for him. You could talk me into a few million more than that.

But that thing he's really good at doesn't mean I'm going to overlook his other numbers. With no one on base this year, .243 average, .286 OBP, .778 OPS - those are Palka numbers. He's a really good RBI guy. He's got good power even as other things weaken. He's a limited hitter and a limited player in other ways, and it annoys me that I have to point that out because some people want to pretend that all we need to care about for him is the stats where he looks good and the others don't count for whatever reason. That prompts people like me to point out the stats that are good and the stats that aren't so good, and anything but eternal praise is somehow judged as an insult by certain people. I want that to stop. I just spent a whole paragraph praising how good he is with RISP and saying why that is valuable, let's accept that as a good situational hitter.

Finally, please, for God's sake, can we never mention him in the same breath as #35 again. Jose Abreu is a good player, particularly with RISP. Frank Thomas put up a career 1.019 OPS with RISP, and that's counting the years when he was declining. Jose Abreu is a solid player and a really good RBI man. Frank Thomas is a f***ing legend. 

I also understand that he's  "stronger and leaner than he has ever been."

[Eminor3rd]

9 hours ago, SI1020 said:

No I have argued forcefully and with detail on the subject numerous times. I liked Bill James in the late 80s. Devoured his stuff in the beginning. Now it's all totally off the rails. If you want to believe Rick Rueschel was as good or better than Juan Marichal or that Whitey Ford wasn't a great pitcher go for it. If you like continually shifting realities be my guest. Three outcome baseball is great ain't it? At least Jason Benneti, who loves analytics understands that WAR is cumulative and traditional stats can't be ignored. Your comment proves my point about snide and arrogant. All my kids and all of their kids were vaccinated. I'm alive today because of a real scientific advance that made a previously impossible surgery possible. I love data and stats of all kind. If I ran a baseball team I'd make good use of them. I just wouldn't put myself in an analytics straight jacket.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You've argued it forcefully, but you haven't provided any evidence, so it's not a great argument.

For example, you made up a stat in your original post where you would find the percentage of RBI that a batter converts to an RBI. You hypothesized that it would correlate well with who you already think good hitters are. I imagine it WOULD correlate pretty well. Probably about as well as RBIs correlate, in fact.

But you know what would correlate even better? wRC+. And there's tons and tons of research that proves it. I'm guessing, based on the stance you're taking, that you don't understand wRC+, but I bet if you read about it, you'd like it a lot. The basic premise behind it is pretty similar to your RBI/chances stat, actually, it just uses events that are actually stable and predictive of future performance, unlike RBI.

If I'm sounding condescending, I'm really not trying to. I'm not suggesting that you aren't smart or can't understand wRC+, I'm just saying I don't think you've tried -- maybe because it isn't interesting to you or you already have negative feelings associated with other stats like it. I don't think you'd get snide remarks very often if you took the time to learn about the stats that you're railing against. Like, if you made an informed argument about why wRC+ ISN'T better than RBI or RBI/chances, in terms identifying the most productive hitting seasons, I don't think anyone would react negatively, even if he/she disagreed with your conclusion.

That's where the anti-vaxxer analogy came from. I used it because I assumed you WEREN'T an anti-vaxxer. As you know and have demonstrated, it makes all kinds of sense to vaccinate your child. For someone to believe he/she SHOULDN'T do so, that person would have to believe some things that aren't true about vaccines, which means that person would have to have not really done much research on the subject. The whole "but different sites can't even agree on a formula for WAR!" thing actually tracks pretty well with that. Lots of people hear that line, and decide simply to dismiss the whole concept without ever checking the veracity of the statement. 

So I think the analogy works. It's not meant to call you ignorant, but it is meant to illustrate that ignorance is the result of choosing to be uninformed on a topic.