Let's talk about White Sox promotions and baseball promotions

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I am getting ready to head on a nice 1 week vacation for America Day, and I read some viewpoints I'd love to discuss further but the thread was locked. Let's try to keep this cordial and hopefully people won't take differing thoughts and opinions personal. 

This was a response that was reiterated in regards to Robert:

"Don't even bother, you'll never convince him that rushing Robert to the big leagues due to lack of patience is pure stupidity."

I am genuinely curious... what is "pure stupidity" about bringing up a guy on pace to go 30/50 with a 1000 ops at AA as one of the youngest guys in the league? Do you have any data driving this opinion that he would be "rushed" and that it would harm his development? 

Because, to the contrary, what we have discovered over the past few years as that age of performance vs average age of the league is a much stronger indicator of a players readiness for the MLB level than total at bats; look no further than baseball's evolving trend of calling guys up younger; look no further than Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis Jr. There is something to be said about a team bringing up their best players.

The discussion I'd love laid out is as follows:

When is a player ready and when should he be called up? My opinion is as follows: If you are better than players on the MLB roster currently, and you have greatly outperformed your elder peers at your current level, you are ready for the challenge that is MLB baseball. Look no further than Yoan Moncada for a basis of this... Yoan's development had to take place at the big league level because he was not being physically challenged in the minor leagues and could succeed despite his deficiencies. This is where Robert is to me; he's ready, as is clear by the fact that he's the best player in the minor leagues this year, and the only development he has left is MLB adjustments. Learning how to hit AAAA pitching in run scoring environment that is AAA at this moment is not beneficial to Robert. He needs to see big league arms that can locate their off-speed stuff into the zone he is susceptible. That is the only way he'll ever change.

I am genuinely curious as to what is "pure stupidity" about bringing up a player who has outperformed all his minor league peers despite being only 21 years old? 

Anyone who starts by citing an extra year of control is using an excuse that goes against the MLB rules and regulations and is not fair to the players. Also, the extra year of control when someone have already been brought up is just pointless. Robert needs to be more ready next year than he is this year; the only way that happens is if he plays big league baseball this year. 

Great athletes sometime age worse than their non-athletic peers in baseball; see BJ Upton as a great example. You should be getting everything out of Robert while he's in his physical peak; that is today. Even if he struggles can anyone really argue against either of the following points?

1. Robert would be our best CF'er today on this team as it is currently constructed. Robert would also be our best RF'er today on this team as it is currently constructed. 

2. Robert is much more talented than the people he is playing against. 

3. Robert is learning nothing at a level in which he is superior, talent wise, when compared to everyone else.

And contrary to the point stated by ChiSox, I love to read information that goes against my predisposed beliefs. If you can present a valid case that doesn't focus on service time manipulation, what is it? I'm all ears. How would putting Robert at the one level that would test and advance his growth hamper him? 

Thanks, and have a great 4th of July holiday!

 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[bmags]

was hoping this would be about hats and bobble heads.

[TomPickle]

I pretty much figured before this year that there was no chance we'd see Robert in the MLB this year as he simply needed more ABs. He only had 96 games of pro experience (including Arizona Fall League last year) since signing with the Sox. He has far surpassed any reasonable expectations and at this point I have no problem with him getting the call to the majors. I know his approach is still pretty unrefined, but even if he struggles at first at the plate he'll be a more valuable player than Cordell/Tilson. Giving him the call now when he can play CF everyday with Anderson on the IL also makes a ton of sense, but I give it a 0% chance of happening.

I said this more in relation to Nick Madrigal than Robert in a FutureSox thread, but Madrigal I can see benefiting from a chance at getting some ABs in AAA with the juiced ball to see if he can tweak his swing/approach a little bit in an effort to hit a few more home runs/extra base hits. Robert has so much raw power that really isn't an issue even in Birmingham.

 

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

was hoping this would be about hats and bobble heads.

 

Or those really cool beer steins they're giving out against the Rangers.

Edited July 1, 2019 by TomPickle

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

was hoping this would be about hats and bobble heads.

I told you I've got one week off and that discussion was planned for another day. That was planned for day 3 while on the golf course discussion, but maybe I'll bump it up a day just for you.

[BackDoorBreach]

I've been saying for a couple months now to bring him to AAA in July for a pit stop if he's still hitting.  I'm hoping we see him at some point this year as he has been tearing the cover off all season.  Offspeed low and away is his weakness, don't know why you couldn't work on that in MLB since that is all he will see.

[mqr]

I've said this before, but arguing whether or not he actually is ready is pointless.

If he's ready today, it doesn't help anyone to hold him down. He should be up today.

If there's still something you want to see from him and it takes until the end of august to see it, probably just leave him down until next year. 

[ChiSox59]

Robert just yesterday eclipsed 550 minor league at bats.  There is no reason to rush him to the big leagues.  This has been explained to you many times, but you clearly just don't care to listen.  You are on the opposite side of the fence, and that is fine.  Not everyone has to agree.  But it is OK to see the viewpoints from the other side! 

Luis Robert will be far more valuable to this organization as a 28 year old in the midst of his prime than as a raw 21 year old on a team that will be lucky to win 75 games.  That is really all that matters.  I don't think any one is denying that he is best CF in the organization right now and that picking up a couple hundred MLB at bats this summer wouldn't hurt his development.  But he'll get 90% of 2020 to get his feet wet in the big leagues, and then the Sox have him for an additional year of control of a potential HOF caliber player in the midst of his prime towards the backend of the Sox' window.  It is so worth the wait.

If you haven't noticed, the Sox are not in a hurry.  They didn't rebuild this thing to get impatient in the 11th hour.  They want to spread out the FA of their talented players, and they want to try to extend their contention window as long as possible.  Part of doing that is being patient with young talent.  Robert was amazing in A+ and has been great again in AA, but the kid hardly played last season, and frankly has played very little organized baseball since he defected from Cuba in 2016.  I get wanting the Sox to put their most talented players on the major league roster, but it is okay to be patient!   Hahn has said repeatedly that they don't want to promote guys until they're ready to produce at the major league level, and stay there! For years the Sox were impatient, and they're finally starting to do things the right way.  Good things come to those that wait, and I have a very good feeling we'll all be very happy the Sox didn't rush into bringing a 21 year kid with very limited pro at bats to the big leagues in a lost season.  He'll be here soon enough for us all to enjoy! 

[ron883]

Correct decision or not, I would love for him to come up so I can rub my bold take that he will be up this year in my friend's faces. The bold take was made very early in the season. They all shot the idea down. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by ron883

[mqr]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Robert just yesterday eclipsed 550 minor league at bats.  There is no reason to rush him to the big leagues.  This has been explained to you many times, but you clearly just don't care to listen.  You are on the opposite side of the fence, and that is fine.  Not everyone has to agree.  But it is OK to see the viewpoints from the other side! 

Luis Robert will be far more valuable to this organization as a 28 year old in the midst of his prime than as a raw 21 year old on a team that will be lucky to win 75 games.  That is really all that matters.  I don't think any one is denying that he is best CF in the organization right now and that picking up a couple hundred MLB at bats this summer wouldn't hurt his development.  But he'll get 90% of 2020 to get his feet wet in the big leagues, and then the Sox have him for an additional year of control of a potential HOF caliber player in the midst of his prime towards the backend of the Sox' window.  It is so worth the wait.

 If you haven't noticed, the Sox are not in a hurry.  They didn't rebuild this thing to get impatient in the 11th hour.  They want to spread out the FA of their talented players, and they want to try to extend their contention window as long as possible.  Part of doing that is being patient with young talent.  Robert was amazing in A+ and has been great again in AA, but the kid hardly played last season, and frankly has played very little organized baseball since he defected from Cuba in 2016.  I get wanting the Sox to put their most talented players on the major league roster, but it is okay to be patient!   Hahn has said repeatedly that they don't want to promote guys until they're ready to produce at the major league level, and stay there! For years the Sox were impatient, and they're finally starting to do things the right way.  Good things come to those that wait, and I have a very good feeling we'll all be very happy the Sox didn't rush into bringing a 21 year kid with very limited pro at bats to the big leagues in a lost season.  He'll be here soon enough for us all to enjoy! 

I think it's wrong to make this about 21 vs 28 when it's really whats best for 22-24 vs 28. Not going to pretend that I know what's best. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by mqr

[ChiSox59]

Just now, mqr said:

I think it's wrong to make this about 21 vs 28 when it's really whats best for 22-24 vs 28. 

I personally don't think Robert getting a couple hundred (likely over-matched) plate appearances in 2019 is going to make any difference on his 22-24 performances.  

[mqr]

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I personally don't think Robert getting a couple hundred (likely over-matched) plate appearances in 2019 is going to make any difference on his 22-24 performances.  

And I don't see how a few extra at-bats at AAA is going to make him suddenly not over matched. He's almost certainly going to struggle some out the gate no matter when he comes up. I'd rather get that out of the way now, and have an entire off season to attack the weaknesses the majors exposes that never will show their face in the minors. 

It's entirely possible that they see some adjustment they still need to see him make, that's fine, but if not all were doing is stalling development for some nebulous idea of sustained success. 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

And I don't see how a few extra at-bats at AAA is going to make him suddenly not over matched. He's almost certainly going to struggle some out the gate no matter when he comes up. I'd rather get that out of the way now, and have an entire off season to attack the weaknesses the majors exposes that never will show their face in the minors. 

It's entirely possible that they see some adjustment they still need to see him make, that's fine, but if not all were doing is stalling development for some nebulous idea of sustained success. 

Improving his BB% and K% would certainly be an easy one.  He is striking out 24.25% of the time and walking just 5.39% of the time in A+ and AA this season.  How do you think that is going to look against MLB pitching?  Obviously he is always going to K alot, and will never be a guy who takes 100 walks, but its not like there is nowhere for Robert to show signs of improvement.  

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Improving his BB% and K% would certainly be an easy one.  He is striking out 24.25% of the time and walking just 5.39% of the time in A+ and AA this season.  How do you think that is going to look against MLB pitching?  Obviously he is always going to K alot, and will never be a guy who takes 100 walks, but its not like there is nowhere for Robert to show signs of improvement.  

While  I agree here, is the goal to make Luis Robert the most money or to win a World Series? They have a 4 year window starting in 2020. Put your team in the best position to maximize it. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[turnin' two]

Can someone remind me if the Sox called up Eloy late last year when he was clearly ready, and if not, why was that?

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

While  I agree here, is the goal to make Luis Robert the most money or to win a World Series? 

The goal should be to put the organization in the best possible position to win as many world series as possible from 2021 on, IMO.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

35 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Robert just yesterday eclipsed 550 minor league at bats.  There is no reason to rush him to the big leagues.  This has been explained to you many times, but you clearly just don't care to listen.  You are on the opposite side of the fence, and that is fine.  Not everyone has to agree.  But it is OK to see the viewpoints from the other side! 

Luis Robert will be far more valuable to this organization as a 28 year old in the midst of his prime than as a raw 21 year old on a team that will be lucky to win 75 games.  That is really all that matters.  I don't think any one is denying that he is best CF in the organization right now and that picking up a couple hundred MLB at bats this summer wouldn't hurt his development.  But he'll get 90% of 2020 to get his feet wet in the big leagues, and then the Sox have him for an additional year of control of a potential HOF caliber player in the midst of his prime towards the backend of the Sox' window.  It is so worth the wait.

If you haven't noticed, the Sox are not in a hurry.  They didn't rebuild this thing to get impatient in the 11th hour.  They want to spread out the FA of their talented players, and they want to try to extend their contention window as long as possible.  Part of doing that is being patient with young talent.  Robert was amazing in A+ and has been great again in AA, but the kid hardly played last season, and frankly has played very little organized baseball since he defected from Cuba in 2016.  I get wanting the Sox to put their most talented players on the major league roster, but it is okay to be patient!   Hahn has said repeatedly that they don't want to promote guys until they're ready to produce at the major league level, and stay there! For years the Sox were impatient, and they're finally starting to do things the right way.  Good things come to those that wait, and I have a very good feeling we'll all be very happy the Sox didn't rush into bringing a 21 year kid with very limited pro at bats to the big leagues in a lost season.  He'll be here soon enough for us all to enjoy! 

What has been explained? My apologies, but someone stating something as a fact with zero supporting evidence is not sufficient evidence for me. I am an analytically driven person that makes decisions based on evidence and not hunches or arbitrary cutoffs that have very little barring on potential outcomes. 

I have asked you, what does Robert need to work on, and why does AA allow him to do that more effectively than MLB? 

Once again you are citing service time manipulation which would infer you believe he's ready but he's being held back solely for reasons that go against the CBA. I'm not good with that. 

I also am uncertain why you act like he would not be on the White Sox at 28 if he comes up today. He would be up for his age 28 season. He may not be here for his age 29 season, but if he's great the Sox should be resigning him anyway.

Impatience implies that Robert is not ready for the challenge and is being rushed for reasons unrelated to his development. I believe the entire focus of calling up Robert is to continue his development better than he is developing at AA.

If you are arguing he needs to work on his K/BB rates; he will NOT do that at AA as he has absolutely zero reason to change his approach because he is absolutely dominating. Baseball changes frequently happen when you struggle not when you're better than everyone else.

Robert is one of the most exciting and talented players in the entire Baseball Universe not just in the MILB but in all of professional baseball. I'm a fan and I want to see the best players now that the rebuild is in it's secondary stages. This isn't the beginning; we have players 2 years ahead of him in terms of team control. Let's get him up here and develop him alongside his future teammates. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The goal should be to put the organization in the best possible position to win as many world series as possible from 2021 on, IMO.  

Then we are in agreement. Robert has nothing left to learn in the minors that can't be learned at 35th and Shields. If you bring him up now. You have an opportunity to add 2020 to that window. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[ChiSox59]

Just now, turnin' two said:

Can someone remind me if the Sox called up Eloy late last year when he was clearly ready, and if not, why was that?

Seriously, though.  And Eloy had 3x the minor league at bats.  The Sox have clearly shown how they plan to handle their elite offensive talents.  I don't know why anybody expects anything different here.  I could see them becoming more aggressive when they're actually competing for divisions and happen to find themselves with an elite positional talent, but not right now.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Can someone remind me if the Sox called up Eloy late last year when he was clearly ready, and if not, why was that?

The excuse used for Eloy - which was also complete BS - was that he needed to work on his defense. At least Eloy had a legit deficiency in his game though - he isn't a good fielder. I'd argue he never will be and nothing has changed from last year to his call-up this year, but Robert is quite literally a 5 tool talent showing all of those talents at a very high level.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Seriously, though.  And Eloy had 3x the minor league at bats.  The Sox have clearly shown how they plan to handle their elite offensive talents.  I don't know why anybody expects anything different here.  I could see them becoming more aggressive when they're actually competing for divisions and happen to find themselves with an elite positional talent, but not right now.  

I think they are being overly conservative right now. 

Moncada and Robert are Similar players and it took Moncada 1.5 seasons to get his shit together. If you call up Robert now he's ready to rock by 2021. I am concerned that they will waste part of their window by delaying promotions too long. We need as many of these guys performing at as high of a level as possible simultaneously 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Improving his BB% and K% would certainly be an easy one.  He is striking out 24.25% of the time and walking just 5.39% of the time in A+ and AA this season.  How do you think that is going to look against MLB pitching?  Obviously he is always going to K alot, and will never be a guy who takes 100 walks, but its not like there is nowhere for Robert to show signs of improvement.  

It might look something like this:

337/405/613 in the MLB - another young player who K'ed at a 27% rate in AA and walked under 8% as a 20 year old in AA last year. 

24.25% isn't even worse than league average. 

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What has been explained? My apologies, but someone stating something as a fact with zero supporting evidence is not sufficient evidence for me. I am an analytically driven person that makes decisions based on evidence and not hunches or arbitrary cutoffs that have very little barring on potential outcomes. 

I have asked you, what does Robert need to work on. 

Once again you are citing service time manipulation which would infer you believe he's ready but he's being held back solely for reasons that go against the CBA. I'm not good with that. 

I also am uncertain why you act like he would not be on the White Sox at 28 if he comes up today. He would be up for his age 28 season. He may not be here for his age 29 season, but if he's great the Sox should be resigning him anyway.

Impatience implies that Robert is not ready for the challenge and is being rushed for reasons unrelated to his development. I believe the entire focus of calling up Robert is to continue his development better than he is developing at AA.

If you are arguing he needs to work on his K/BB rates; he will NOT do that at AA as he has absolutely zero reason to change his approach because he is absolutely dominating. Baseball changes frequently happen when you struggle not when you're better than everyone else.

If Robert was called up today and remained in the big leagues, he would accrue over 6.0 years of service time in 2025, and would be a free agent in 2026.  He would play the majority of the 2025 season at age 27, turning 28 in August.  His first year under his free agent contract (if not extended before then) would be played at age 28, turning 29 in August.  

And I don't know what to tell you about the service time thing.  Basically all teams do it.  The Twins demoted Byron fucking Buxton last year with over 1,000 major league plate appearances in order to get an extra year of control.  Until the rules are changed with the next CBA, teams will continue to take advantage of the rules.  You don't have to "be good with it", but it is what it is.  

[ron883]

Ray Ray has me sold. Call him the fook up!

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think they are being overly conservative right now. 

Moncada and Robert are Similar players and it took Moncada 1.5 seasons to get his shit together. If you call up Robert now he's ready to rock by 2021. I am concerned that they will waste part of their window by delaying promotions too long. We need as many of these guys performing at as high of a level as possible simultaneously 

I think it was fairly obvious that the Red Sox were too aggressive with Moncada.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

17 minutes ago, mqr said:

And I don't see how a few extra at-bats at AAA is going to make him suddenly not over matched. He's almost certainly going to struggle some out the gate no matter when he comes up. I'd rather get that out of the way now, and have an entire off season to attack the weaknesses the majors exposes that never will show their face in the minors. 

It's entirely possible that they see some adjustment they still need to see him make, that's fine, but if not all were doing is stalling development for some nebulous idea of sustained success. 

It is entirely possible that Luis Robert doesn't struggle a day in his MLB life. He may have 2 week shortcomings similar to his AA struggles, but it is entirely within the realm of possibility that he physically dominates the MLB similarly. He is that talented.