Let's talk about White Sox promotions and baseball promotions

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think it was fairly obvious that the Red Sox were too aggressive with Moncada.  

Not necessarily, I bet you could find one or two or three 20 at-bat samples last year or 2017 that were similarly terrible. 

[turnin' two]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The excuse used for Eloy - which was also complete BS - was that he needed to work on his defense. At least Eloy had a legit deficiency in his game though - he isn't a good fielder. I'd argue he never will be and nothing has changed from last year to his call-up this year, but Robert is quite literally a 5 tool talent showing all of those talents at a very high level.

Maybe that was the excuse, but what was the reason.   And is that the same situation for Robert?

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

Not necessarily, I bet you could find one or two or three 20 at-bat samples last year or 2017 that were similarly terrible. 

I am not making that determination based on his 20 plate appearances with the Red Sox in 16.  

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Maybe that was the excuse, but what was the reason.   And is that the same situation for Robert?

It 100% the same situation, but it's worth discussing whether that's the right approach or not because you're likely not going to be able to strong arm Robert into an extension. 

[Thad Bosley]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I am getting ready to head on a nice 1 week vacation for America Day, and I read some viewpoints I'd love to discuss further but the thread was locked. Let's try to keep this cordial and hopefully people won't take differing thoughts and opinions personal. 

This was a response that was reiterated in regards to Robert:

"Don't even bother, you'll never convince him that rushing Robert to the big leagues due to lack of patience is pure stupidity."

I am genuinely curious... what is "pure stupidity" about bringing up a guy on pace to go 30/50 with a 1000 ops at AA as one of the youngest guys in the league? Do you have any data driving this opinion that he would be "rushed" and that it would harm his development? 

Because, to the contrary, what we have discovered over the past few years as that age of performance vs average age of the league is a much stronger indicator of a players readiness for the MLB level than total at bats; look no further than baseball's evolving trend of calling guys up younger; look no further than Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis Jr. There is something to be said about a team bringing up their best players.

The discussion I'd love laid out is as follows:

When is a player ready and when should he be called up? My opinion is as follows: If you are better than players on the MLB roster currently, and you have greatly outperformed your elder peers at your current level, you are ready for the challenge that is MLB baseball. Look no further than Yoan Moncada for a basis of this... Yoan's development had to take place at the big league level because he was not being physically challenged in the minor leagues and could succeed despite his deficiencies. This is where Robert is to me; he's ready, as is clear by the fact that he's the best player in the minor leagues this year, and the only development he has left is MLB adjustments. Learning how to hit AAAA pitching in run scoring environment that is AAA at this moment is not beneficial to Robert. He needs to see big league arms that can locate their off-speed stuff into the zone he is susceptible. That is the only way he'll ever change.

I am genuinely curious as to what is "pure stupidity" about bringing up a player who has outperformed all his minor league peers despite being only 21 years old? 

Anyone who starts by citing an extra year of control is using an excuse that goes against the MLB rules and regulations and is not fair to the players. Also, the extra year of control when someone have already been brought up is just pointless. Robert needs to be more ready next year than he is this year; the only way that happens is if he plays big league baseball this year. 

Great athletes sometime age worse than their non-athletic peers in baseball; see BJ Upton as a great example. You should be getting everything out of Robert while he's in his physical peak; that is today. Even if he struggles can anyone really argue against either of the following points?

1. Robert would be our best CF'er today on this team as it is currently constructed. Robert would also be our best RF'er today on this team as it is currently constructed. 

2. Robert is much more talented than the people he is playing against. 

3. Robert is learning nothing at a level in which he is superior, talent wise, when compared to everyone else.

And contrary to the point stated by ChiSox, I love to read information that goes against my predisposed beliefs. If you can present a valid case that doesn't focus on service time manipulation, what is it? I'm all ears. How would putting Robert at the one level that would test and advance his growth hamper him? 

Thanks, and have a great 4th of July holiday!

 

So simply put, you’d rather see him play the final three months of this season on this non-playoff caliber team, rather than potentially a full season in 2026 during his prime on a team in a championship window.  

It’s certainly a point of view and an interesting opinion on the matter, but I’m sure you can see why some others might not share that view.  

[Bob Sacamano]

They'll definitely find an excuse to keep him down if that is what they want, ready or not.

[mqr]

10 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

So simply put, you’d rather see him play the final three months of this season on this non-playoff caliber team, rather than potentially a full season in 2026 during his prime on a team in a championship window.  

It’s certainly a point of view and an interesting opinion on the matter, but I’m sure you can see why some others might not share that view.  

They already have him for 2026. Were talking about 2027, a year which, unless they become a talent factory, will very likely not be in a championship window. They have a chance to be really good in 2020, if calling Robert up now helps that cause, I do it every time. 

Edit: never mind my math was off, but I stick by that being a tough sell to assume it's going to be a good year. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by mqr

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

So simply put, you’d rather see him play the final three months of this season on this non-playoff caliber team, rather than potentially a full season in 2026 during his prime on a team in a championship window.  

It’s certainly a point of view and an interesting opinion on the matter, but I’m sure you can see why some others might not share that view.  

Oh I understand your view entirely but it's against MLB rules and the CBA and service time manipulation isn't ok with me. 

MLB already exploits the hell out of their minor league athletes. They already underpay most of them for the first 7 years of their careers (likely their most valuable years) and as noted above the Sox do this to push extensions, but Robert has about 50 million reason to say screw your extension, so in reality we're talking about leaving him down solely to exploit his service time and to get 2027 under team control when the sox can just RESIGN him if he's great. 

I think Robert is a rare case of being so gifted he honestly has nothing left to learn in the minors. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

In somber unrelated news, RIP Tyler Skaggs. Holy sad.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Oh I understand your view entirely but it's against MLB rules and the CBA and service time manipulation isn't ok with me. 

MLB already exploits the hell out of their minor league athletes. They already underpay most of them for the first 7 years of their careers (likely their most valuable years) and as noted above the Sox do this to push extensions, but Robert has about 50 million reason to say screw your extension, so in reality we're talking about leaving him down solely to exploit his service time and to get 2027 under team control when the sox can just RESIGN him if he's great. 

I think Robert is a rare case of being so gifted he honestly has nothing left to learn in the minors. 

There's plenty they can say to get around that though. It's not like he's been crushing it over the course of 2-4 years. They can say they want him to cut down on ks, they want him to prove he can stay healthy over the course of a year, they want him to hit x amount at bats in the minors before coming up.

Having said that, I'm excited to see Robert too. I'm honestly fine with whatever they want to do whether it be calling him up this year or waiting til mid-April 2020.

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, mqr said:

They already have him for 2026. Were talking about 2027, a year which, unless they become a talent factory, will very likely not be in a championship window.

This is incorrect.

[Thad Bosley]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Oh I understand your view entirely but it's against MLB rules and the CBA and service time manipulation isn't ok with me. 

MLB already exploits the hell out of their minor league athletes. They already underpay most of them for the first 7 years of their careers (likely their most valuable years) and as noted above the Sox do this to push extensions, but Robert has about 50 million reason to say screw your extension, so in reality we're talking about leaving him down solely to exploit his service time and to get 2027 under team control when the sox can just RESIGN him if he's great. 

I think Robert is a rare case of being so gifted he honestly has nothing left to learn in the minors. 

I’m actually not arguing against you.  On the contrary, I’m enjoying your argument and trying to understand your thinking on the matter.

My initial instinct is to not rush a prospect if you don’t have to.  Not saying that’s necessarily a one-size-fits-all approach for every prospect.  I guess I’m content here on July 1 employing the same approach the team used with Jimenez.  

Flip side?  I am dying to see this kid playing at 35th & Shields!

 

[mqr]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

This is incorrect.

 Yeah I corrected myself

[SoxAce]

While I agree about the service time concerns with Robert, the whole "well Eloy had way more minor league ABs" stuff is a bit much. Robert is a different case playing in a professional Cuban league before coming here. He isn't a normal Dominican player coming to the states as a teenager or a high school prospect drafted and raw. 

With that said, he absolutely at the very least should finish the year in Charlotte (I posted in the Minor league board his numbers compared to Eloys in AA). Then we can see him in 2020 (Sox can decide if they want to give him the Eloy route there or not next season).

[Jack Parkman]

34 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think it was fairly obvious that the Red Sox were too aggressive with Moncada.  

I don't think that Moncada learned anything during his half season in Charlotte in 2017. At that point it was ok to keep him down because the core had not been established yet. At some point, you have to fail and make adjustments at the MLB level. Eloy is still going through it, Moncada went through it. Get Robert and Madrigal through it ASAP. Those guys are too talented to learn anything in the minors, and the only thing keeping them down any longer does is delay the window opening. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Dick Allen]

33 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It is entirely possible that Luis Robert doesn't struggle a day in his MLB life. He may have 2 week shortcomings similar to his AA struggles, but it is entirely within the realm of possibility that he physically dominates the MLB similarly. He is that talented. 

There has never been a player who hasn't struggled. 

[steveno89]

15 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Oh I understand your view entirely but it's against MLB rules and the CBA and service time manipulation isn't ok with me. 

MLB already exploits the hell out of their minor league athletes. They already underpay most of them for the first 7 years of their careers (likely their most valuable years) and as noted above the Sox do this to push extensions, but Robert has about 50 million reason to say screw your extension, so in reality we're talking about leaving him down solely to exploit his service time and to get 2027 under team control when the sox can just RESIGN him if he's great. 

I think Robert is a rare case of being so gifted he honestly has nothing left to learn in the minors. 

A young player like Robert will benefit from getting more reps and facing a variety of pitchers in the minors. Major league pitching is a completely different animal. Everyone has solid stuff and can get you out in a variety of ways. Luis is obviously talented, but there is no reason to have him up at the major league level after 50 AA games on a team not competing for the postseason. I wouldn't mind him seeing time in Charlotte for the final month of the year though. 

[fathom]

8 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

There has never been a player who hasn't struggled. 

Yaz 

[Texsox]

Many can't fail prospects have failed. I'm going to be optimistic and believe he's going to have a great career. Financially he will eventually become a free agent and sign a huge ass contract with someone else and be set for life.

So do I want him playing a season now on a sub .500 team or later on a team that might be good? It seems like such an easy answer I'm surprised it's even being debated.

[NotHahn]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think they are being overly conservative right now. 

Moncada and Robert are Similar players and it took Moncada 1.5 seasons to get his shit together. If you call up Robert now he's ready to rock by 2021. I am concerned that they will waste part of their window by delaying promotions too long. We need as many of these guys performing at as high of a level as possible simultaneously 

Great post. Robert needs to learn how to fail & succeed at the MLB level. Only reason he is still in the minors is because of service control. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

45 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

There has never been a player who hasn't struggled. 

I think our definitions of struggle in this case are just different.

Everyone slumps, but not everyone struggles to acclimate themselves to the big leagues. For example, Acuna and Soto have had slumps but they have never struggled to show they belong and are amazing and their year end outcomes back that up.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[BackDoorBreach]

Figuring out MLB pitching is kind of important.  Robert getting exposed to that in 2019 is going to help him in 2020.  I really don't care about his PA's at this point, it's pretty apparent he isn't going to fall into an awful slump and be shit.  Get him to AAA sometime this month and bring him up end of July.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

17 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Many can't fail prospects have failed. I'm going to be optimistic and believe he's going to have a great career. Financially he will eventually become a free agent and sign a huge ass contract with someone else and be set for life.

So do I want him playing a season now on a sub .500 team or later on a team that might be good? It seems like such an easy answer I'm surprised it's even being debated.

This once again would mean you think he's ready but want to exploit his service time and labor. That excuse is not valid since it is against the cba even if it does happen.

I agree plenty of cant miss guys fail but robert has that safety blanket like Buxton. Roberts tools are simply otherworldly. If you had a power centric prospect with Robert's power and hit grade youd have a potential + big leaguer. If you had a speed first centerfield prospect with his speed, defense and arm grade youd have a legit prospect. 

If he doesnt hit for average hes a 3 WAR player rolling out of bed with his baserunning, defense and home run threat. If he doesnt steal bases as well or run as effectively but he has an 800 ops with great CF defense you have a 3-4 WAR player. He can contribute in so many facets of the game that you could be horribly wrong about two of his grades and he'd still be mike cameron.

[poppysox]

I would like to see Robert and Madrigal join Cease asap.  Use the remainder of 2019 to acclimate these three key pieces to the major league game.  Giolito, Jiminez, Mancada along with Anderson all needed time to adjust to the faster game after being promoted.  I don't want to waste the first half of 2020 for this process.  Use free agency and trades to acquire two decent starting pitchers and a right fielder.  We can compete for the division in 2020 as Kopech, Dunning and Rodon get their footing following their respective surgeries.  These players have all shown advanced skills and don't need to be treated with such kid gloves.  Daryl Boston has been working with Eloy on his outfield play and it shows.  Boston can work with Robert while McEwing works with Madrigal.  Both players would be immediate upgrades to our current team and it speeds the acclimation time to the big leagues.  Robin Yount skipped the minor league stint and joined the big league club at 18 years old.  Worked out pretty well I would say.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

A very rare thread where good, quality discussion is being had. Actually going to bring me out of posting hibernation, so well done. 

It’s a complicated discussion where both sides have valid points. A few things I would consider: 

- Robert is a phenomenal, almost freak athlete. Those are rare. Take someone like a Aaron Rowand. A guy that’s played baseball his whole life but never filled with a ton of skill. Grinded it out at every level, developed his skill set and eventually had a productive ML career. He’s a guy that if you brought up too early, in my opinion, never overcomes the initial struggles you face upon entering MLB. I don’t believe that’s the case with a guy like Robert. That’s a long way of me saying in this case, calling him up and letting him take his lumps at the ML level shouldn’t be very harmful to any long term development. 

- The Sox are also allowed see Robert struggle because of where they are in their rebuilding process. If this team was in a true playoff chase and had a fairly set roster, I would say continue to let Robert develop in the minor leagues. I don’t think his development is being stunted in the minors right now, but with 2019 still a development year for the organization, it allows players to struggle at the ML level. Moncada is the perfect example. 

- Lastly, my opinion has changed on service time. Someone mentioned “If you call him up early, you burn a year of service time in his prime and he reaches FA early.” My response at this point is so what? So Robert turns into a Star and ownership has to pay superstar money to keep him. Good. They should. We’ve spent enough time being in the bottom 1/3 of payrolls, if Robert turns into a Star, pay him.

If the Sox feel right now Robert can handle ML pitching and can get their ML coaching staff involved on a daily basis with Robert, get him to Chicago.

Ha. Next ownership maybe.