What does a McCann extension look like?

[bmags]

9 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

I just think that option is still there next year.

I just think this is one of those things where it’s not a big deal in terms of dollars in either direction and the Sox should keep him, but whether that’s now or next year I don’t particularly care when they sign him.

[raBBit]

McCann has been outstanding, has made changes to his game and seems to be a great guy/pitcher's catcher.

That said it makes no sense to sign him to an extension because:

1) You'd be signing him at the top of his market.

2) He has a .408 BABIP.

3) You have him under control for another year when he can prove his changes are lasting. 

The counter argument being if he keeps playing this way, through this year and next, you will have to pay him more than you would with an extension now. That's true and that's a worthwhile risk in my opinion. 

[Dick Allen]

He is pretty similar to Tyler Flowers, who after he left the White Sox, all of a sudden started getting on base, and looking like the player the Sox hoped he was several years earlier. Flowers hasn't broke the bank yet even with an over 5 fWAR season. There is little reason to open the checkbook to McCann right now. He's been great, but things can change quickly, especially with a catcher.

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He is pretty similar to Tyler Flowers, who after he left the White Sox, all of a sudden started getting on base, and looking like the player the Sox hoped he was several years earlier. Flowers hasn't broke the bank yet even with an over 5 fWAR season. There is little reason to open the checkbook to McCann right now. He's been great, but things can change quickly, especially with a catcher.

I don't care to harp on this anymore as I'm repeating myself, but this is exactly the reason why we shouldn't expect a McCann signing, even at the peak of his play, to actually mean we are paying for the current level of production for the rest of the contract. That said, as to why there is urgency to do a mid year extension? I don't know that there is one, if anyone you do that with Jose for the feels.

[raBBit]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He is pretty similar to Tyler Flowers, who after he left the White Sox, all of a sudden started getting on base, and looking like the player the Sox hoped he was several years earlier. Flowers hasn't broke the bank yet even with an over 5 fWAR season. There is little reason to open the checkbook to McCann right now. He's been great, but things can change quickly, especially with a catcher.

A) I agree 100%.

B) DA just casually dropped that Flowers posted a 5-WAR season and I fact checked him and to my utter disbelief Tyler Flowers amassed 5.7 WAR in 99 games in 2017. Good god. 

[GreenSox]

The thing, is he's all we have.  I'd see if he's open for 3/$15 which is less than he'd get at current pace, but more than if he drops back to .700 OPS.  Even paying him $8 mill a year would likely be a double overpay, but still only a $4 million a year overpay.  They overpay worse than that every year, as per Alonso, Jon Jay, and  Nova just this season (and that would hold even if those 3 were having good years).    To me, there is a greater risk in overpaying in a trade for a veteran catcher should he move along.  

I say he's all we have, unless Collins gets it together or if Mercedes can play the position. He raked in Birmingham when almost everyone else was hibernating and he's kept it up in AAA.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, raBBit said:

McCann has been outstanding, has made changes to his game and seems to be a great guy/pitcher's catcher.

That said it makes no sense to sign him to an extension because:

1) You'd be signing him at the top of his market.

2) He has a .408 BABIP.

3) You have him under control for another year when he can prove his changes are lasting. 

The counter argument being if he keeps playing this way, through this year and next, you will have to pay him more than you would with an extension now. That's true and that's a worthwhile risk in my opinion. 

I think the key question is how much more would we pay at the end of next season if he kept this up for this year and all of next year?

Let’s just assume he hits like this for the next year and a half. What do you think it would take to sign him at that point? And what do you think an extension would look like right now?

[G&T]

Since May 12 his BABIP has .371 and he has posted a .782 OPS.
Since June 1, he also has a .371 BABIP but an .842 OPS.

I'm not sure how sustainable a .371 BABIP is for McCann, but he's been productive even at a level below .400.

[pcq]

7 hours ago, bmags said:

I just think this is one of those things where it’s not a big deal in terms of dollars in either direction and the Sox should keep him, but whether that’s now or next year I don’t particularly care when they sign him.

I think we should wait as long as possible, hoping San Diego will come up with his asking price later.

[ChiSox59]

3/$36M is insanity. 

I’d play next year out. I like McCann, but he’s going to regress. Max I’d offer is about half that. 3/$18M. 

[pcq]

We don't respect talent except to waste money on poor risks like James Shields, Drake LaRoche and Yonder Hither Alonso. 

[raBBit]

7 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

I think the key question is how much more would we pay at the end of next season if he kept this up for this year and all of next year?

Let’s just assume he hits like this for the next year and a half. What do you think it would take to sign him at that point? And what do you think an extension would look like right now?

If he's an All Star next year as well he'll probably get a really nice deal on the free market and the Sox would regret not locking him in. That is the risk you take by not extending him. Maybe something like 3/45 IF he follows up next year the same way (assuming he settles at like .275-.290 or so) I don't know. 

That said, I just don't really expect the market to value McCann and I don't expect McCann's performance to continue at this pace. When Avi had a .400 BABIP leading up to the trade deadline of 2017 the Sox couldn't get anything offered in return for him. He was an All Star and hit .330 that season. No one wanted him during it down the stretch or after the season was done. Of course, McCann is a more well-rounded player and plays a more desired position than Avi but the whole league knew what happened with Garcia and they'll have the same type of argument with McCann.

Garcia had a 1,551 PA track record of being middling-bad (92 OPS+) and in 2017 he led baseball in BABIP by 21 points with a .392 BABIP. He hit .236 the next season.

McCann had a 1,658 PA track record of being just bad (76 OPS+) and in 2019 he doesn't currently qualify but he has a BABIP of .408 which is 16 points higher than the qualified leader (Yoan Moncada, .392).

I think McCann is a smart player, good teammate and surprisingly more athletic than I remember with Detroit. I think it's pretty clear that he's made improvements to his approach at the plate and he has stopped hitting pop ups and really started using the whole field to hit.

 

[poppysox]

13 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

3/$36M is insanity. 

I’d play next year out. I like McCann, but he’s going to regress. Max I’d offer is about half that. 3/$18M. 

3/$18 is about what today's price is I would imagine.  Tomorrows price might be more like that 3/$36 number or zero depending on what happens starting tonight.  Personally I'd like to lock him up for some cost certainty at the position.

[pcq]

Considering our sketchy record of acquiring or developing talent I would lock up the guy already in our lineup. Someby else will likely overpay when he hits the market. Meanwhile Collins will get a chance to learn under James.