Luis Robert

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So if no one offered him that he would have retired? Come on Jack, you're a smart guy. Your last paragraph is so wrong Jack idk what to tell you. So he was gonna hold out for two more years or sign a 1 year deal and expose himself to risk of injury or depleting skills... he was never worth more than he was worth this offseason. Hes not getting young. He wouldnt take a 1 year deal and push off free agency another year. That's nonsense.

If I have a $10 bill and I want to sell it for change because I need change... of 32 people, 28 of them offer me 9.95 because they know I'm desperate. 2 guys offer me $10, one guy $11 because he really hates change and one guy offers $14 because he really hates change and hates $11 man. It wouldnt mean that $11 is no longer a competitive offer... it would simply mean someone was willing to pay even more than 99% of others thought it was worth. A competitive offer would be anything north of what the majority viewed its value as.

I should have used the value of a home and not a $10 bill since player values fluctuate based on organization but I'm too lazy to retype it and you get the point.

Abslolutely $11 isn't a competitive offer. 

A competitive offer is something reasonably close to the amount signed for, in guaranteed dollars. 

I could safely say the Sox made a competitive offer if they offered, say $290 over 8 years. They were $50M short of the final offer. That isn't competitive. Sorry. 

[ptatc]

47 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Abslolutely $11 isn't a competitive offer. 

A competitive offer is something reasonably close to the amount signed for, in guaranteed dollars. 

I could safely say the Sox made a competitive offer if they offered, say $290 over 8 years. They were $50M short of the final offer. That isn't competitive. Sorry. 

I may not be good at math but he got 300 and the sox offered 290, how is that 50 short?

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

I may not be good at math but he got 300 and the sox offered 290, how is that 50 short?

They didn't, the $290 was a hypothetical offer. They actually offered 8/250. That wasn't even close. I could have seen an argument for 8/280 as being close. 2 years less, but $20M short. That is competitive. 

[Jerksticks]

Well let’s all just be happy we don’t have Machado and move on.  

[poppysox]

10 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Well let’s all just be happy we don’t have Machado and move on.  

Yes...now we can afford the two starting pitchers and the right fielder we really need.

[ptatc]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They didn't, the $290 was a hypothetical offer. They actually offered 8/250. That wasn't even close. I could have seen an argument for 8/280 as being close. 2 years less, but $20M short. That is competitive. 

Got it. Misunderstood your post.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Yes...now we can afford the two starting pitchers and the right fielder we really need.

I dont think they will get 2 starting pitchers. They have Giolito,  kopech, cease and 1 fa with Lopez as #5 until dunning is ready for his shot.

[mqr]

Just now, ptatc said:

I dont think they will get 2 starting pitchers. They have Giolito,  kopech, cease and 1 fa with Lopez as #5 until dunning is ready for his shot.

They'll sign a guy they can shuttle with Charlotte for like 2 mil for depth. 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

They'll sign a guy they can shuttle with Charlotte for like 2 mil for depth. 

Like Santana?

If they legitimately want to compete next year...they’re already looking at Kopech on an innings limit, so they’ll need a #2 and a SOLID #4 if they are serious at all.

[mqr]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Like Santana?

If they legitimately want to compete next year...they’re already looking at Kopech on an innings limit, so they’ll need a #2 and a SOLID #4 if they are serious at all.

I think they’ll go into opening day running Gio, Cease, Kopech, Lopez and an acquired pitcher. Rodon should help take the load off Kopech at some point. They’ll need someone they can stash at AAA Incase someone implodes or gets hurt. Spend the extra money bullpen arms.

This is all assuming health which....lol

Edited July 15, 2019 by mqr

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, mqr said:

I think they’ll go into opening day running Gio, Cease, Kopech, Lopez and an acquired pitcher. Rodon should help take the load off Kopech at some point. They’ll need someone they can stash at AAA Incase someone implodes or gets hurt. Spend the extra money bullpen arms.

This is all assuming health which....lol

It’s not a sure thing how much Rodon will pitch next year...granted, he’ll be fighting for his career and a new contract, but no way we can trust or rely upon him in a playoff race down the stretch.

He’ll enter 2020 having missed almost exactly half (49) of roughly 96 possible starts from 2017-2019.   

Edited July 15, 2019 by caulfield12

[Bananarchy]

4 hours ago, illinilaw08 said:

But if the contention window opens in 2020, that adjustment time is costing the Sox in meaningful games.  2019 games are not meaningful, so if Robert scuffles early, who cares. 

If 2020 is "maybe we get lucky and contend for a Wild Card spot," sure, take service time into account.  If 2020 is Sox are pushing for the division title, then Robert's adjustment period (if any) hurts that goal.

Whatever it costs in adjustment time is made up for the fact you get an extra peak season.

You can't debate your way out of this.  The White Sox are better letting Robert stay in the minors to maximize team control.

[SonofaRoache]

41 minutes ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

Whatever it costs in adjustment time is made up for the fact you get an extra peak season.

You can't debate your way out of this.  The White Sox are better letting Robert stay in the minors to maximize team control.

That's not the argument. The argument is giving away a contention year next year for a possible contention year in 2026. You can still re-sign Robert, but you don't know if by 2026 you will still have Moncada, Kopech, Gio, etc. It's a tough decision to make either way in my opinion. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

That's not the argument. The argument is giving away a contention year next year for a possible contention year in 2026. You can still re-sign Robert, but you don't know if by 2026 you will still have Moncada, Kopech, Gio, etc. It's a tough decision to make either way in my opinion. 

Why does him getting called up next year mean he will suck as opposed to seeing one month this year? Him getting called up this year doesn't mean he's automatically going to be good next year. And who knows, maybe they will call him up next year and then struggle will be minimal in the beginning only.

Edited July 15, 2019 by soxfan2014

[mqr]

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

Why does him getting called up next year mean he will suck as opposed to seeing one month this year?

He’d have a full offseason to attack whatever weaknesses get exposed instead of learning on the fly. Nothing’s guaranteed either way but that is where my head is at. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Like Santana?

If they legitimately want to compete next year...they’re already looking at Kopech on an innings limit, so they’ll need a #2 and a SOLID #4 if they are serious at all.

Go for someone like Wacha who might be a little more expensive, has some upside, but we won't feel that bad if he's put into the bullpen for that role. 

[SonofaRoache]

23 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Why does him getting called up next year mean he will suck as opposed to seeing one month this year? Him getting called up this year doesn't mean he's automatically going to be good next year. And who knows, maybe they will call him up next year and then struggle will be minimal in the beginning only.

And him being called up in mid april doesn't guarantee he will have a good peak year in 2026. I would call him up August 1st two get two months in. If he struggles, he has something to work on in the offseason. If we sign some pitchers and a RF then he definitely should be called up. 

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

And him being called up in mid april doesn't guarantee he will have a good peak year in 2026. I would call him up August 1st two get two months in. If he struggles, he has something to work on in the offseason. If we sign some pitchers and a RF then he definitely should be called up. 

Honestly, I think most anyone that pays attention to the Sox and has a general knowledge of the game that knows there are benefits to both sides of the argument.  Its a pretty simple trade off.  Will be interesting to see what the Sox do.  We happen to disagree, but I am not going to sit here and say having Robert up for good right now wouldn't be awesome.  Of course I'd love it.  I do think its always a good call to try and be patient in a process like this, though.  Especially as fans.  

[Bob Sacamano]

39 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

And him being called up in mid april doesn't guarantee he will have a good peak year in 2026. I would call him up August 1st two get two months in. If he struggles, he has something to work on in the offseason. If we sign some pitchers and a RF then he definitely should be called up. 

The way the young guys on the roster are playing, along with adding a starter or 2, a RF, and a couple RPs, they don't need Robert to be great next season. He can develop over the course of next year.

[gusguyman]

I don't have any desire to re-litigate the service time argument yet again, so I'm just going to drop my own comp on Robert: Peak Eric Davis. Pretty good average, 30/30 player, possible gold glove defense in CF (he has the tools for it, not sure how much development he needs to do though).

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

I don't have any desire to re-litigate the service time argument yet again, so I'm just going to drop my own comp on Robert: Peak Eric Davis. Pretty good average, 30/30 player, possible gold glove defense in CF (he has the tools for it, not sure how much development he needs to do though).

Mike Cameron/Devon White/Eric Davis...those are three pretty good comps for what we hope is the floor of his potential.

[soxfan49]

Since this has unofficially become the official Luis Robert thread, he has a homer and triple tonight.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Yeah, when I think about whether or not to call Robert up, I have to look at the player's readiness, where the big league team is in it's contention window, and his future contract status.

While on the one hand Robert's numbers are indeed impressive, this is still his first full season in MiLB that was not disrupted by a major injury; I don't believe we'll learn much about his bat in Charlotte, but he might very well "hit a wall" later in the season. 

 

But the primary reasons why I lean on the side of "May 1st-ish" for a callup are twofold:

1. This team is nowhere near competing, due to the craptacular pitching staff. Were there at least ONE more reliable and healthy SP [and preferrably, TWO] beyond Giolito, I'd be more inclined to bringing him up now. In other words, I'd be comfortable sacrificing a year of control in 5-6 years from now if this team looked closer to contending NOW.

2. This is still the White Sox, and the owner is still [apparently] interested in keeping as much money as possible in his heirs' pockets. If they wouldn't pay the proper price for Machado, I have a hard time believing they'll pay up for an extension when Robert is in his prime. [Also, his massive signing bonus makes him unlikely to go for a team-friendly deal before then.]

 

So, I suppose for Robert, I'm OK with them playing the "service time" game, whereas for Madrigal, given that he may be more likely to sign an extension, I'm OK with bringing him up sooner. While it may be cute to see other youngsters up early, I have no doubt that Vlad, Jr, Tatis, Moncada, and yes, Robert are GONE after their first contract. We'll see.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Two-Gun Pete

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, when I think about whether or not to call Robert up, I have to look at the player's readiness, where the big league team is in it's contention window, and his future contract status.

While on the one hand Robert's numbers are indeed impressive, this is still his first full season in MiLB that was not disrupted by a major injury; I don't believe we'll learn much about his bat in Charlotte, but he might very well "hit a wall" later in the season. 

 

But the primary reasons why I lean on the side of "May 1st-ish" for a callup are twofold:

1. This team is nowhere near competing, due to the craptacular pitching staff. Were there at least ONE more reliable and healthy SP [and preferrably, TWO] beyond Giolito, I'd be more inclined to bringing him up now. In other words, I'd be comfortable sacrificing a year of control in 5-6 years from now if this team looked closer to contending NOW.

2. This is still the White Sox, and the owner is still [apparently] interested in keeping as much money as possible in his heirs' pockets. If they wouldn't pay the proper price for Machado, I have a hard time believing they'll pay up for an extension when Robert is in his prime. [Also, his massive signing bonus makes him unlikely to go for a team-friendly deal before then.]

 

So, I suppose for Robert, I'm OK with them playing the "service time" game, whereas for Madrigal, given that he may be more likely to sign an extension, I'm OK with bringing him up sooner. While it may be cute to see other youngsters up early, I have no doubt that Vlad, Jr, Tatis, Moncada, and yes, Robert are GONE after their first contract. We'll see.

Seems to be the trend in the AL Central.

Berrios and Buxton (especially after they manipulated his time last year) won't sign an extension in Minnesota, Lindor's going to be leaving CLE after already turning down a $100 million extension (which would have been a total bargain compared to Jimenez's deal.)

[Two-Gun Pete]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Seems to be the trend in the AL Central.

Berrios and Buxton (especially after they manipulated his time last year) won't sign an extension in Minnesota, Lindor's going to be leaving CLE after already turning down a $100 million extension (which would have been a total bargain compared to Jimenez's deal.)

Can't disagree.

But, given that the SP market is gonna be competitive, & that what's currently in the rotation looks like shit,  I don't want to waste service time on a guy who looks like he's gone the second he hits FA.