Luis Robert

[mqr]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Nah. Robert would be up now if he was coming up this season.  He isn't.  It's next April.  

I'd call 8-1 that cutoff.

That being said, it's next April

[raBBit]

There are some pros to calling up Robert right now as many have outlined. The three common themes:

1) Robert gets to see MLB pitching now - If that's the case can get challenged and become better served to prepare in the offseason for 2020.

2) Robert wouldn't have to forgo the first 15-20 games or whatever it is next April - Team is supposed to be compete 2020 and 162 > 145. He could be the difference between a game or two in April if they had to hold him down.

3) This team can grow together and "learn" how to win together. 

-------

To me, #1 is the biggest deal. Robert isn't matched in minor league baseball. He may struggle for a couple weeks now that he's had a few series in the IL or he may continue to dominate, either way, over the course of a full season this guy is going to light the league up. MLB pitching is a whole other world. His development would be best served if he's up here seeing how MLB pitchers attack him, learning to adjust and to gameplan and adjust again, getting a taste of the MLB regimen/process, etc. 

#2 is something that only can happen. If you hold him back and he tears an acl in spring training his clock has already started. If he has a nagging injury in ST and starts the year on the DL, his clock is already started. There is some risk on the front end to get an unguaranteed contribution on the back end. He can come up on Opening Day and start the year 5-60. He can also start in AAA and have the team come out blazing. Are they best served with him in the lineup? Definitely. But the return in a small sample is not worth the upside of attaining another year on contol. I would argue 162 games of Robert's play in 2025 is more valuable than 15-20 games of the (basically/probably) rookie Robert in 2018. 

#3 is nothing to me. The amount of turnover from the July 2019 roster to the May of 2020 roster will be tremendous. This team is going to have to learn to win together on the fly. You're going to have these guys as relative locks for 2020

Yoan Moncada

Eloy Jimenez

Lucas Giolito

Tim Anderson

Reynaldo Lopez

Dylan Cease

Aaron Bummer

Alex Colome

James McCann

Leury Garcia

Jace Fry

That's 11 guys likely to be back on the roster next year without Abreu. That's assuming Bummer/Colome/Fry as well as Leury don't get traded in the next week. Yolmer/Cordell/Herrera/Covey/Marshall all have varying shots to be make the roster but not locks by any means. 

After looking at those pros, I still think we're better served holding him back until next year to get the extra service year even if that's not an acceptable opinion. It's not as simple as 7>6, but it's almost there. I'd like to hear more supporting the contrary though. In the end, the Sox have been pretty "by the book" on this stuff and we'll see how strong their hand is. I think this is going to be a PR nightmare that starts soon and carries on for at least 6 months. 

 

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, GermanSoxFan said:

When you say his name three times, he jumps off his Colombian steed to relitigate the Tatis trade by comparing it to the Tony Pena/Chris Carter trade and how it relates to the 1996 season of the Toronto Blue Jays. ?

That was one of the best trades in KW's career, it brought back Quentin, who should have won 2008 AL MVP.

 

1) Tatis and Machado share the same agent/representation, so you can be sure they're on the same page about signing an extension or not.   There is a danger if the Padres can't at least make the playoffs in 2020 or 2021 (blocked by the Dodgers) that they both start looking to greener pastures.  2022 will be the key year, for both their futures.  After 2023, Machado can opt out.

Then we can go through this whole offseason fiasco again with a 31 year old Machado, yay!!!

 

2) Commendable job of working Colombian caballos into the story.

 

3) The Padres wanted to set the tone from the very beginning of the season that they were going to put their best team on the field.  Hosmer and Machado actually talked to Preller and management about it in spring training, and they finally agreed.  At that time, they also agreed to put Paddack on the roster...even though they knew he would be limited in his innings not too far removed from a TJ.   Other than a brief 3-4 start stretch, he's been as good as advertised, and has become one of the best NL young hurlers, along with Soroka.

 

4) By my count, they've brought up eight Top 100 MILB guys to the majors this year....most of them on the pitching side, once you get past Tatis, Urias and Naylor.  They pretty much knew they weren't going to compete this year, but they wanted all those young arms to be in competition at the major league level to see what they actually had:  starter, reliever, or back to the minors for more seasoning.  In that way, they're able to make a determination on trading Yates (they have a kid in Munoz throwing 102-103 and still growing) or holding onto him for one more season (see Colome situation with the White Sox).

 

5)  Whether they can compete with the Dodgers next season, it's all going to come down to Mackenzie Gore and when he arrives.  If they start him in the major leagues on Opening Day, then you'll really know they're throwing all caution to the wind.  You can definitely make an argument with all the volatility with pitchers, you might be better off forgetting about years of control and just utilizing them as long as possible before they start depreciating (see NY Mets, 2015....or Nats/Strasburg.)

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, raBBit said:

There are some pros to calling up Robert right now as many have outlined. The three common themes:

1) Robert gets to see MLB pitching now - If that's the case can get challenged and become better served to prepare in the offseason for 2020.

2) Robert wouldn't have to forgo the first 15-20 games or whatever it is next April - Team is supposed to be compete 2020 and 162 > 145. He could be the difference between a game or two in April if they had to hold him down.

3) This team can grow together and "learn" how to win together. 

-------

To me, #1 is the biggest deal. Robert isn't matched in minor league baseball. He may struggle for a couple weeks now that he's had a few series in the IL or he may continue to dominate, either way, over the course of a full season this guy is going to light the league up. MLB pitching is a whole other world. His development would be best served if he's up here seeing how MLB pitchers attack him, learning to adjust and to gameplan and adjust again, getting a taste of the MLB regimen/process, etc. 

#2 is something that only can happen. If you hold him back and he tears an acl in spring training his clock has already started. If he has a nagging injury in ST and starts the year on the DL, his clock is already started. There is some risk on the front end to get an unguaranteed contribution on the back end. He can come up on Opening Day and start the year 5-60. He can also start in AAA and have the team come out blazing. Are they best served with him in the lineup? Definitely. But the return in a small sample is not worth the upside of attaining another year on contol. I would argue 162 games of Robert's play in 2025 is more valuable than 15-20 games of the (basically/probably) rookie Robert in 2018. 

#3 is nothing to me. The amount of turnover from the July 2019 roster to the May of 2020 roster will be tremendous. This team is going to have to learn to win together on the fly. You're going to have these guys as relative locks for 2020

Yoan Moncada

Eloy Jimenez

Lucas Giolito

Tim Anderson

Reynaldo Lopez

Dylan Cease

Aaron Bummer

Alex Colome

James McCann

Leury Garcia

Jace Fry

That's 11 guys likely to be back on the roster next year without Abreu. That's assuming Bummer/Colome/Fry as well as Leury don't get traded in the next week. Yolmer/Cordell/Herrera/Covey/Marshall all have varying shots to be make the roster but not locks by any means. 

After looking at those pros, I still think we're better served holding him back until next year to get the extra service year even if that's not an acceptable opinion. It's not as simple as 7>6, but it's almost there. I'd like to hear more supporting the contrary though. In the end, the Sox have been pretty "by the book" on this stuff and we'll see how strong their hand is. I think this is going to be a PR nightmare that starts soon and carries on for at least 6 months. 

 

With a guaranteed deal for next year, you can practically guarantee Herrera will be on the roster for at least the first 2-3 months of 2020.

Edited July 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, raBBit said:

There are some pros to calling up Robert right now as many have outlined. The three common themes:

1) Robert gets to see MLB pitching now - If that's the case can get challenged and become better served to prepare in the offseason for 2020.

2) Robert wouldn't have to forgo the first 15-20 games or whatever it is next April - Team is supposed to be compete 2020 and 162 > 145. He could be the difference between a game or two in April if they had to hold him down.

3) This team can grow together and "learn" how to win together. 

-------

To me, #1 is the biggest deal. Robert isn't matched in minor league baseball. He may struggle for a couple weeks now that he's had a few series in the IL or he may continue to dominate, either way, over the course of a full season this guy is going to light the league up. MLB pitching is a whole other world. His development would be best served if he's up here seeing how MLB pitchers attack him, learning to adjust and to gameplan and adjust again, getting a taste of the MLB regimen/process, etc. 

#2 is something that only can happen. If you hold him back and he tears an acl in spring training his clock has already started. If he has a nagging injury in ST and starts the year on the DL, his clock is already started. There is some risk on the front end to get an unguaranteed contribution on the back end. He can come up on Opening Day and start the year 5-60. He can also start in AAA and have the team come out blazing. Are they best served with him in the lineup? Definitely. But the return in a small sample is not worth the upside of attaining another year on contol. I would argue 162 games of Robert's play in 2025 is more valuable than 15-20 games of the (basically/probably) rookie Robert in 2018. 

#3 is nothing to me. The amount of turnover from the July 2019 roster to the May of 2020 roster will be tremendous. This team is going to have to learn to win together on the fly. You're going to have these guys as relative locks for 2020

Yoan Moncada

Eloy Jimenez

Lucas Giolito

Tim Anderson

Reynaldo Lopez

Dylan Cease

Aaron Bummer

Alex Colome

James McCann

Leury Garcia

Jace Fry

That's 11 guys likely to be back on the roster next year without Abreu. That's assuming Bummer/Colome/Fry as well as Leury don't get traded in the next week. Yolmer/Cordell/Herrera/Covey/Marshall all have varying shots to be make the roster but not locks by any means. 

After looking at those pros, I still think we're better served holding him back until next year to get the extra service year even if that's not an acceptable opinion. It's not as simple as 7>6, but it's almost there. I'd like to hear more supporting the contrary though. In the end, the Sox have been pretty "by the book" on this stuff and we'll see how strong their hand is. I think this is going to be a PR nightmare that starts soon and carries on for at least 6 months. 

 

+100. Nice post. 

It may be a PR nightmare, but at least people are/will be talking about the Sox. There are much worse situations than having a prospect so good that your decision to keep him in the minors leagues creates media attention. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by ChiSox59

[mqr]

13 minutes ago, raBBit said:

There are some pros to calling up Robert right now as many have outlined. The three common themes:

1) Robert gets to see MLB pitching now - If that's the case can get challenged and become better served to prepare in the offseason for 2020.

2) Robert wouldn't have to forgo the first 15-20 games or whatever it is next April - Team is supposed to be compete 2020 and 162 > 145. He could be the difference between a game or two in April if they had to hold him down.

3) This team can grow together and "learn" how to win together. 

-------

To me, #1 is the biggest deal. Robert isn't matched in minor league baseball. He may struggle for a couple weeks now that he's had a few series in the IL or he may continue to dominate, either way, over the course of a full season this guy is going to light the league up. MLB pitching is a whole other world. His development would be best served if he's up here seeing how MLB pitchers attack him, learning to adjust and to gameplan and adjust again, getting a taste of the MLB regimen/process, etc. 

#2 is something that only can happen. If you hold him back and he tears an acl in spring training his clock has already started. If he has a nagging injury in ST and starts the year on the DL, his clock is already started. There is some risk on the front end to get an unguaranteed contribution on the back end. He can come up on Opening Day and start the year 5-60. He can also start in AAA and have the team come out blazing. Are they best served with him in the lineup? Definitely. But the return in a small sample is not worth the upside of attaining another year on contol. I would argue 162 games of Robert's play in 2025 is more valuable than 15-20 games of the (basically/probably) rookie Robert in 2018. 

#3 is nothing to me. The amount of turnover from the July 2019 roster to the May of 2020 roster will be tremendous. This team is going to have to learn to win together on the fly. You're going to have these guys as relative locks for 2020

Yoan Moncada

Eloy Jimenez

Lucas Giolito

Tim Anderson

Reynaldo Lopez

Dylan Cease

Aaron Bummer

Alex Colome

James McCann

Leury Garcia

Jace Fry

That's 11 guys likely to be back on the roster next year without Abreu. That's assuming Bummer/Colome/Fry as well as Leury don't get traded in the next week. Yolmer/Cordell/Herrera/Covey/Marshall all have varying shots to be make the roster but not locks by any means. 

After looking at those pros, I still think we're better served holding him back until next year to get the extra service year even if that's not an acceptable opinion. It's not as simple as 7>6, but it's almost there. I'd like to hear more supporting the contrary though. In the end, the Sox have been pretty "by the book" on this stuff and we'll see how strong their hand is. I think this is going to be a PR nightmare that starts soon and carries on for at least 6 months. 

 

Has anyone genuinely argued number 3 because that’s...something

[chitownsportsfan]

@mqr -- on this board?  You'll find someone arguing RBI % as a critical All-Star stat.   So why not "learning to win together".  In baseball.  Imagine that.  This isn't a 5 man lineup learning to play off Jordan it's 9 guys going up there with a job to do individually and one guy on the mound doing his.  But some people think it's like soccer or basketball.

Edited July 23, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

Has anyone genuinely argued number 3 because that’s...something

They tried to do that with minor league placements in 2018...especially with Vizquel's Winston-Salem team last year, but then they haven't really kept that team together with all the injuries/adjustment problems and then Robert getting pushed so quickly to Charlotte after he started to take off.

It would actually be nice to see the Barons make the second half playoffs, but they might not be possible due to the dearth of pitching in the system right now.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

10 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

When?

The Athletic had some quote from Rick on a few guys and he basically said no Robert in 2019.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Athletic had some quote from Rick on a few guys and he basically said no Robert in 2019.

• Hahn said Luis Robert’s major-league debut likely won’t happen until 2020, despite the young star announcing his arrival to Triple A with a .440/.500/.960 batting line and three homers in six games.

“It’s been six games, so let’s keep a little perspective,” Hahn said. “I’m fine with the calls getting greater or the excitement getting greater to see another potential premium piece here at the big-league level. I hope he keeps this roll going. It’s probably unrealistic to hope he rolls like this all the way through Triple A.”

 

James Fegan, theathletic.com

Also said that Eloy Jimenez won't be changing to 1B/DH...

[soxfan49]

38 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

• Hahn said Luis Robert’s major-league debut likely won’t happen until 2020, despite the young star announcing his arrival to Triple A with a .440/.500/.960 batting line and three homers in six games.

“It’s been six games, so let’s keep a little perspective,” Hahn said. “I’m fine with the calls getting greater or the excitement getting greater to see another potential premium piece here at the big-league level. I hope he keeps this roll going. It’s probably unrealistic to hope he rolls like this all the way through Triple A.”

 

James Fegan, theathletic.com

Also said that Eloy Jimenez won't be changing to 1B/DH...

Then I assume he's sick or hurt because as @KnightsOnMintSt pointed out he was suddenly pulled from the lineup tonight

[poppysox]

6 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Just out of curiosity, do the people who feel that Robert should not be called up at all this season (unless he signs an extension) believe that the Braves and Padres were foolish bringing up Acuna and Tatis early?

Yes.

[Moan4Yoan]

7 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Just out of curiosity, do the people who feel that Robert should not be called up at all this season (unless he signs an extension) believe that the Braves and Padres were foolish bringing up Acuna and Tatis early?

Yes.  Why waste an entire year of control over Robert in a non-competitive season?

[SonofaRoache]

16 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Yes.  Why waste an entire year of control over Robert in a non-competitive season?

It's all good until we lose out on our division by one game after starting the season 5 and 9. And then still suck in 2026 and lose Robert. 

[Moan4Yoan]

10 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

It's all good until we lose out on our division by one game after starting the season 5 and 9. And then still suck in 2026 and lose Robert. 

Haha.  It’s a calculated risk that is worth taking for the extra year.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

• Hahn said Luis Robert’s major-league debut likely won’t happen until 2020, despite the young star announcing his arrival to Triple A with a .440/.500/.960 batting line and three homers in six games.

“It’s been six games, so let’s keep a little perspective,” Hahn said. “I’m fine with the calls getting greater or the excitement getting greater to see another potential premium piece here at the big-league level. I hope he keeps this roll going. It’s probably unrealistic to hope he rolls like this all the way through Triple A.”

 

James Fegan, theathletic.com

Also said that Eloy Jimenez won't be changing to 1B/DH...

And there it is...thanks.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Yes.

It was a mistake for the Braves to call up a 4-5 WAR player? What?

We're they supposed to keep him down until he was 23 just for fun?

Anyone who thinks calling up Acuna was a mistake despite already knowing the results has a very interesting take on baseball and the concept of a career. The guy was ready and unreal from day 1. Of course he should have been called up.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

It's all good until we lose out on our division by one game after starting the season 5 and 9. And then still suck in 2026 and lose Robert. 

It's a risk I'm willing to take. 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Haha.  It’s a calculated risk that is worth taking for the extra year.

a lot of people have a hard time with that concept.  there are a range of outcomes in future events.  most of those outcomes will be better served with an extra year of control over a top 4 prospect in baseball.

[poppysox]

22 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

I think the poster means a deal where he can come up this year, and we would have him for 7 years becoming a free agent the same year as he would if he came up mid-April 2020. He might sacrifice some money by avoiding arbitration though.

This is correct.  Once the meter starts running you have 6 years of control.  The first 3 years are for close to league minimum and the fourth through sixth will be in the neighborhood of 8, 10 and 12 using Kris Bryant as a prototype.  That means Robert will earn in the neighborhood of 32 million in that 6 year period.  We offer to guarantee the 32 million and pay a bonus payment of 3 million for the extra time starting Aug. 1, 2019.  Robert now is guaranteed making 35 million and is a free agent on the same day as if he didn't take the deal.  His deal is guaranteed if he breaks his leg tomorrow and is out of baseball.  What he lose...absolutely nothing.  Why should the Sox do this deal...major league development starts immediately getting his feet wet so we compete in 2020 out of the gate, increase this years fan base & fan goodwill.  You can play with the numbers up or down but the concept is a no brainer for both Robert and RH.

[Jose Abreu]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Athletic had some quote from Rick on a few guys and he basically said no Robert in 2019.

 

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

• Hahn said Luis Robert’s major-league debut likely won’t happen until 2020, despite the young star announcing his arrival to Triple A with a .440/.500/.960 batting line and three homers in six games.

“It’s been six games, so let’s keep a little perspective,” Hahn said. “I’m fine with the calls getting greater or the excitement getting greater to see another potential premium piece here at the big-league level. I hope he keeps this roll going. It’s probably unrealistic to hope he rolls like this all the way through Triple A.”

  

James Fegan, theathletic.com

Also said that Eloy Jimenez won't be changing to 1B/DH...

Yeah, I remember this. From what I remember, Fegan (from The Athletic) took this quote and basically paraphrased it as "Rick Hahn says Luis Robert will not be promoted in 2019". 

 

Unless he had a private session with Hahn that no other reporter had access to, Hahn didn't really say anything along those lines. That's my one gripe with Fegan, he often misconstrues quotes to align with his own preconceived notions, which is especially annoying when we have so few beat writers that publish similar stuff.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Jose Abreu

[Jose Abreu]

For the record, I don't think he gets called up this year either, but now there are a ton of people who understandably believe that Hahn already said it's not happening. There were about 5-6 reporters who were live tweeting that Hahn talk and Fegan is the only one who reported anything remotely similar to "Robert will not be promoted in 2019".

[Jose Abreu]

12 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

Then I assume he's sick or hurt because as @KnightsOnMintSt pointed out he was suddenly pulled from the lineup tonight

It's weird, I almost wish it's a minor injury, because giving him all these random days off wouldn't make any sense if he were healthy. 

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

It's weird, I almost wish it's a minor injury, because giving him all these random days off wouldn't make any sense if he were healthy. 

He has never played more than 70 games in a season in his career and he is already at 85 this year. My guess is that with his injury history they want to mitigate his fatigue that could lead to injury.

[SonofaRoache]

13 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Haha.  It’s a calculated risk that is worth taking for the extra year.

We want that extra year because we think we can contend in it. But what is the point of that if we decide to not compete in 2020? Either way you are losing a year of competing.