Luis Robert

[GermanSoxFan]

6 minutes ago, joejoedairy said:

Pete Alonso this year. 

Alonso is also 3 years older than Robert, and 5 years older than Tatis.

[mqr]

 

2 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Alonso is also 3 years older than Robert, and 5 years older than Tatis.

I will say calling someone up opening day is always a mistake. Alonso's probably not a big deal being on the older side though.

[caulfield12]

Not to mention the Mets were DESPERATELY trying to convince their fans they could compete in that division this season with the additions of Cano and Edwin Diaz, calling up Alonso...but it's also not like they have a YOUNG team, they've got some younger players like Alonso, McNeil, Rosario and Comforto, but Cano/ and deGrom are all ticking away in terms of fighting father age or nearing free agency.

Edited July 24, 2019 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Not to mention the Mets were DESPERATELY trying to convince their fans they could compete in that division this season with the additions of Cano and Edwin Diaz, calling up Alonso...but it's also not like they have a YOUNG team, they've got some younger players like Alonso, McNeil, Rosario and Comforto, but Cano/ and deGrom are all ticking away in terms of fighting father age or nearing free agency.

The Cano trade has a great chance to be their Tatis Jr for James Shields trade.  It was a desperate move selling low and buying high.  Every single Mariners fan that watched Cano and Diaz in 2018 could have predicted massive regression.  One is at an age 2B, even HOF ones, fall of a fucking cliff historically.  The other is a closer with great stuff but command issues and a relativity short MLB track record.

Now the Mets are in a position where they almost have to trade Thor this deadline.  Just to get back a Kelenic type prospect.  

Be glad we aren't Mets fans, we got that going for us.  They are much, much worse off than  when the Sox started their rebuild.

[bmags]

I am still shocked at the type of regression Diaz is experiencing, tbh. I don't even think you should get that caught up in the Cano aspect, it was largely Kelenic for Diaz and it was a massive failure on that front.

[GermanSoxFan]

Or Marlins fans.

They arguably had equally valuable or even more valuable trade chips in Ozuna, Stanton, Yelich and Realmuto (Gordon to a lesser extent) and the returns for these players look absolutely awful. Not to mention that their last draft picks don't look too hot either.

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

I am still shocked at the type of regression Diaz is experiencing, tbh. I don't even think you should get that caught up in the Cano aspect, it was largely Kelenic for Diaz and it was a massive failure on that front.

Never trade a top 50 prospect for a closer is the lesson.  Which is why if the Sox get anything in the top 100 for Colome + filler we should do cart wheels.

Edited July 24, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[mqr]

18 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Never trade a top 50 prospect for a closer is the lesson.  Which is why if the Sox get anything in the top 100 for Colome + filler we should do cart wheels.

I'll take Aroldis Chapman being a bad trade that worked out okay to my grave. 

[chitownsportsfan]

20 minutes ago, mqr said:

I'll take Aroldis Chapman being a bad trade that worked out okay to my grave. 

Obviously there are exceptions to every rule.  Chapman is a once every decade type talent at closer (or every 5 years) and the Cubs were at the point in their window where they could dream on Flags Flying Forever.  It's similar to Boston trading about 40-55 projected WAR over the next 8 years for Sale and raising a banner.  Not exactly the same but similar.

If the Sox are projected to win 90+ games in 2021 and the 2020 draft pick is traded for a Chapman type I won't wring my hands over it.

Edited July 24, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Obviously there are exceptions to every rule.  Chapman is a once every decade type talent at closer (or every 5 years) and the Cubs were at the point in their window where they could dream on Flags Flying Forever.  It's similar to Boston trading about 40-55 projected WAR over the next 8 years for Sale and raising a banner.  Not exactly the same but similar.

If the Sox are projected to win 90+ games in 2021 and the 2020 draft pick is traded for a Chapman type I won't wring my hands over it.

I also would not trade a boatload for a closer in the offseason. The thing about overpaying for chapman is it was at a point where the cubs were reasonably confident in him being a player to get them from playoff contender to putting chips in for that additional edge. He was performing at the time.

But as a teambuilding offseason exercise, and paying for that additional control for a closer, that's a landmine.

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, bmags said:

I also would not trade a boatload for a closer in the offseason. The thing about overpaying for chapman is it was at a point where the cubs were reasonably confident in him being a player to get them from playoff contender to putting chips in for that additional edge. He was performing at the time.

But as a teambuilding offseason exercise, and paying for that additional control for a closer, that's a landmine.

right.  similar to playing poker and seeing you've got $50 already in the pot and a speculative (but smart) all in might work well.  the "pod odds" for the cubs was the right time to make that trade.

But the mets trading for a closer with a 75 win roster?  OOF.

[DirtySox]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

Kiley invoked Lew Brinson when justifying their 55 for Robert. That’s a yuck from me dawg. 

It's worth posting/reading his thoughts on this. I might not agree with it, but the logic isn't terrible.

Quote

Josh Nelson: What do you need to see from Luis Robert to give him a FV 60+?

1:27    
Kiley McDaniel: This goes back to a conversation I have with fantasy baseball dynasty friends that ask me which hitting prospects to pick up when they’re promoted. I tell them generally to take the lower K rate because their game translates to the big leagues easier (better performance from day 1) and they’ll reach their upside faster, even if it’s lower.

1:28    
Kiley McDaniel: Then a friend didn’t want to bug me and assumed using K% as a guide that Lewis Brinson (18% in AAA in 2017) was a better bet than Cody Bellinger (20% in AA in 2016, 27% the year before that).

1:29    
Kiley McDaniel: In retrospect that seems silly, but you can see there’s limits to this approach

1:29    
Kiley McDaniel: I had to explain that Brinson was a swing and miss type with crazy tools that had a lower K rate because his tools didn’t allow him to be tested until MLB, so his AAA K rate makes him seem lower risk than he is

1:30    
Kiley McDaniel: and Bellinger is power-focused, does it well and is an athlete with bat control (important distinction), so his approach was a conscious tradeoff and was mature in that it would work in AA similarly to how it would work in MLB

1:31    
Kiley McDaniel: which is not obvious even from reading our reports closely, though you may pick up that sort of nuance if you’re a long-time reader

1:32    
Kiley McDaniel: I bring all this up to say that while I’m not saying Luis Robert is Lewis Brinson, his issue is similar in that he’s so toolsy he can’t be challenged in AAA. We’ve heard from analysts and scouts that his pitch selection is still an issue (particularly off-speed) and he’ll need to figure that out in the big leagues, which could be painful and slow (Brinson) or go quickly because his tools are also elite in MLB and that it won’t challenge him for more than a couple months (Ronald Acuna).

1:34    
Kiley McDaniel: Another recent White Sox super prospect, Yoan Moncada had an issue somewhere between Bellinger and Brinson, in that he was a little stiff and didn’t have elite bat control, but had a good approach, so he just needed to dial in his approach to do maximum damage when the right pitch was there and realize he wouldn’t be a career .300 hitter.

1:35    
Kiley McDaniel: It took Moncada about 900 PA to make an improvement (he’s been pretty BABIP lucky this year, so the improvement is a little overstated) but we’ve said before that we’d much rather have a Moncada-type because the pitch selection and power means you’ll always get to the power in games since you can pick pitches to drive, you just may hit .250 or whatever (but w/solid OBP).

1:37    
Kiley McDaniel: The other type of player, Brinson/Robert will have trouble getting to the power in games against elite pitching due to poorer pitch selection, also not walk much, so at least until an adjustment is made (if it is made), it’s empty batting average driven by bat control and people waiting for the breakout.

1:37    
Kiley McDaniel: Explaining this in detail a few times makes me think we should grade plate discipline and bat control when elite hitting prospects are in the upper minors to help classify which sort of hitter each guy is.

1:38    
Kiley McDaniel: So, the much shorter version is that Robert probably won’t be a 60 FV for us because to prove that he’s clear of the Lewis Brinson trap will probably take most of an MLB season to prove, given that we don’t think he’ll change in Triple-A.

1:38    
Kiley McDaniel: (thus he will have graduated the prospect list when/if he proves it)

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by DirtySox

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

It's worth posting/reading his thoughts on this. I might not agree with it, but the logic isn't terrible.

 

So his future value isn't what it should be because of Lewis Brinson (a very different player), but if he gets to the bigs and isn't like Brinson, his future value will retroactively be increased? This is almost as bad as PFF grades 

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

It's worth posting/reading his thoughts on this. I might not agree with it, but the logic isn't terrible.

 

It's horse shit logic imo.  He's "too toolsy" to be challenged in AAA is framed as a drawback?  GTFO.  I also see a lot of hindsight bias and needless comparisons to a completely different player in Brinson that cratered Gordon Beckham style almost inexplicably.  One only needs to look at the speed numbers of Robert compared to Brinson to see that Robert has elite speed and is a different profile.

Robert has a MLB ready carrying tool and that is elite speed.  It should allow him to have a Buxton esque impact in the field even if he only hits 250/300/450 for a couple years.

I really can't shake my head enough at that logic.  I don't pretend to watch these prospects as closely as these guys but the logic is horrendous, it's akin to old time scouting imo where you start with a narrative then build around it rather than the other way.

[mqr]

7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's horse shit logic imo.  He's "too toolsy" to be challenged in AAA is framed as a drawback?  GTFO.  I also see a lot of hindsight bias and needless comparisons to a completely different player in Brinson that cratered Gordon Beckham style almost inexplicably.  One only needs to look at the speed numbers of Robert compared to Brinson to see that Robert has elite speed and is a different profile.

Robert has a MLB ready carrying tool and that is elite speed.  It should allow him to have a Buxton esque impact in the field even if he only hits 250/300/450 for a couple years.

I really can't shake my head enough at that logic.  I don't pretend to watch these prospects as closely as these guys but the logic is horrendous, it's akin to old time scouting imo where you start with a narrative then build around it rather than the other way.

I think he just chose a weird way to say Robert has flaws that are covered by being too talented for his level. 

Also Brinson has elite speed too. 

[Jose Abreu]

5 minutes ago, mqr said:

I think he just chose a weird way to say Robert has flaws that are covered by being too talented for his level. 

Also Brinson has elite speed too. 

Brinson is plenty fast, one of the fastest players in pro baseball.

Robert is faster though. We don't know by how much, but it could be significant enough to separate his floor from Brinson's even further. 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

I think he just chose a weird way to say Robert has flaws that are covered by being too talented for his level. 

Also Brinson has elite speed too. 

There are plenty of 4.45 guys in the NFL.  There are very few true 4.3 guys and those guys, even with flaws, are invaluable.  Playmakers.  Guys that can look pedestrian for three quarters then rip off a 80 yard punt return and change the game.  Robert is a 4.3 guy in this analogy.  He is an outlier among the best in the world.  There might be 2-3 guys in all of MLB that have his speed and agility and natural base stealing acumen.

Brinson stole 109 bases in Milb and was caught 41 times.  Most of it at an older age relative to league than Robert.  Robert has 59 swipes against only 15 CS.   Brinson averaged a triple roughly once every 100 AB.  Robert averages one about every 60.

They really aren't comparable imo.

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Brinson is plenty fast, one of the fastest players in pro baseball.

Robert is faster though. We don't know by how much, but it could be significant enough to separate his floor from Brinson's even further. 

I need your brevity and succinctness Christ you're saying in 20 words what I'm saying in 200.

Edited July 24, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[mqr]

They do have eerily similar age 21 seasons lol. Robert will finish with 4 or 5 more homers and a bunch more steals over the same 100 games. 

[Jose Abreu]

8 minutes ago, mqr said:

They do have eerily similar age 21 seasons lol. Robert will finish with 4 or 5 more homers and a bunch more steals over the same 100 games. 

As of now, sure, but Robert still has 40+ games to go and will probably crush Brinson's home run total

Edit: which is kind of what you said, I just think the difference in power is more than the box scores suggest 

Edited July 24, 2019 by Jose Abreu

[mqr]

4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

As of now, sure, but Robert still has 40+ games to go and will probably crush Brinson's home run total

Edit: which is kind of what you said, I just think the difference in power is more than the box scores suggest 

Yeah, I don't know enough about the Rangers affiliates park factors to know what the lines are actually saying, I just thought it was in interesting observation.

[bmags]

58 minutes ago, mqr said:

Yeah, I don't know enough about the Rangers affiliates park factors to know what the lines are actually saying, I just thought it was in interesting observation.

Brewers right (are we talking about Brinson?), both PCL and Texas League (less certain) are supposed to be hitters leagues. 

But of course INTL has become the ultimate hitters league with the ML ball this year.

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Brewers right (are we talking about Brinson?), both PCL and Texas League (less certain) are supposed to be hitters leagues. 

But of course INTL has become the ultimate hitters league with the ML ball this year.

Yes Brinson, but he was with TEX in 2015

[GermanSoxFan]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

Yes Brinson, but he was with TEX in 2015

These two trades including Brinson were just incredible for the Brewers. Lucroy forgot how to hit one year later and they used him to get Yelich, who is playing like Barry Bonds since putting on a Brewers uniform.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, mqr said:

I'll take Aroldis Chapman being a bad trade that worked out okay to my grave. 

No chance.

They traded like 20+ WAR for 1.5 WAR and the I'll take it to the grave that Chapman is NOT why the Cubs won.