Jack Parkman Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) I'm already resigned to the idea that Moncada and Robert, at the very least, are going to walk. This is going to be a very limited window so they should maximize it. If they keep worrying about service time at this point there will be no window. Edited July 15, 2019 by Jack Parkman 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yesterday333 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: If the White Sox offer him the most money - as is always the case with stars and free agency - then they can retain him. The only way the Sox would lose him is if they didn't pay the most. And the yankees and redsox have more money than anybody to offer him... that was the point of what I was saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomPickle Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) I understand the worry some users ITT have about re-signing Robert when his team control is up and I think that is likely the case as well. However, do you all not have the same concerns over signing Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Eloy, and possibly Anderson as well? If you play the service time game with Robert and call him up in May of 2020 the only guy you will for sure have for all of Robert's control is Eloy. Everyone else's clock will run out and need to be re-signed/extended. Parkman put it more succinctly, the window is already open and now slowly closing. At this point in the rebuild you should be trying to get the remaining pieces to the majors at a pace that pushes them, but doesn't overwhelm them. Robert is pretty clearly ready to play in the majors right now. I'm fine with giving him through August at AAA if you want, but he should see the big leagues this year. Madrigal and Vaughn should both be up in 2020. Edited July 15, 2019 by TomPickle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baker Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 There seems to be a misunderstanding concerning the extra year of control. The extra year becomes Arb 4, ala Kris Bryant. A 4th year Arb guy is also called “super 2”. Arbitraton guidlines peg the awards as such: 1st year Arb is roughly 20% of market value based on roughly $9M/war and other metrics. The following years of Arb increase to 40%, 60%,80% for year4. The ballclub only retains 20% surplus market value for that extra year of control. For 4 War player, maybe 6-7$M. It’s not a huge amount. Not worth the ill-will it brings with it. Plus you’re getting a couple of months “free” if he comes up in August. The extra year of control game isn’t a smart play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneDog847 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 2 hours ago, raBBit said: They're similar in the sense that the goal is financial prudence but getting 6.85 years of Robert in our competitive window is between than 6 years in our competitive window and 2 months when we're going nowhere. Not wanting to guarantee a player $30M in 9-10 years when they're 36-37 is a more complex argument. Navigating the bargaining agreement to ensure you deploy one of your elite prospects as best as possible is a no brainer for a rebuilding team. Financial prudence banners fly forever! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, Baker said: There seems to be a misunderstanding concerning the extra year of control. The extra year becomes Arb 4, ala Kris Bryant. A 4th year Arb guy is also called “super 2”. Arbitraton guidlines peg the awards as such: 1st year Arb is roughly 20% of market value based on roughly $9M/war and other metrics. The following years of Arb increase to 40%, 60%,80% for year4. The ballclub only retains 20% surplus market value for that extra year of control. For 4 War player, maybe 6-7$M. It’s not a huge amount. Not worth the ill-will it brings with it. Plus you’re getting a couple of months “free” if he comes up in August. The extra year of control game isn’t a smart play. You don’t think adding a full season of control at 80% market value to a star entering free agency is valuable enough to spend two weeks without him in his rookie year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, OneDog847 said: Financial prudence banners fly forever! I don't want to win the fiscal responsibility banner, I want a damn world series banner. We have 4 seasons of Moncada and Giolito left. Maximizing that should be the highest priority. If they waste 2020 then they're not serious about winning, and it is more of a well, we hope we win but if we don't that is okay. Edited July 15, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 4 hours ago, Eloy Jiménez said: The point remains: It's unlikely the Sox are going to sign Robert and he is going to be in the minors for the remainder of the season to prolong the window. I am definitely in the keep Robert in the minors until early May 2020 camp, but the fact that the Sox moved him to AAA already gives me some pause to thinking that is the org's plan. They're only making their own story harder to weave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: I am definitely in the keep Robert in the minors until early May 2020 camp, but the fact that the Sox moved him to AAA already gives me some pause to thinking that is the org's plan. They're only making their own story harder to weave. Idk it's probably as easy as saying 4 levels in 1 year is too fast. It'd be BS, but I think it flies better than working on his defense. Edited July 15, 2019 by mqr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said: If Luis Robert becomes Mike Trout, I don't think any of us will care about his service time Well, I think we'll all be pretty damn disappointed when he leaves for FA a year earlier than he would have if the Sox didn't waste a year on 200 at bats in a 75 win season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Well, I think we'll all be pretty damn disappointed when he leaves for FA a year earlier than he would have if the Sox didn't waste a year on 200 at bats in a 75 win season. You call it wasted, but quite often players need time in the bigs to adjust. The difference here is him adjusting in August and September instead of April and May 2020 when I think there's a very real possibility the Sox are a top 5 team in the AL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrlesque Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 52 minutes ago, TomPickle said: I understand the worry some users ITT have about re-signing Robert when his team control is up and I think that is likely the case as well. However, do you all not have the same concerns over signing Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Eloy, and possibly Anderson as well? If you play the service time game with Robert and call him up in May of 2020 the only guy you will for sure have for all of Robert's control is Eloy. Everyone else's clock will run out and need to be re-signed/extended. Parkman put it more succinctly, the window is already open and now slowly closing. At this point in the rebuild you should be trying to get the remaining pieces to the majors at a pace that pushes them, but doesn't overwhelm them. Robert is pretty clearly ready to play in the majors right now. I'm fine with giving him through August at AAA if you want, but he should see the big leagues this year. Madrigal and Vaughn should both be up in 2020. For me, this is /thread. Perfectly put. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baker Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: You don’t think adding a full season of control at 80% market value to a star entering free agency is valuable enough to spend two weeks without him in his rookie year? For that extra 20% of surplus value, you’re giving up 2 months of valuable mlb experience in 2019 and another 2 weeks in 2020. Now if he doesn’t warrant a call up this year, then you have a decent debate about holding him the first 2 weeks of 2020 and the bad press that comes with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Just now, Steve9347 said: You call it wasted, but quite often players need time in the bigs to adjust. The difference here is him adjusting in August and September instead of April and May 2020 when I think there's a very real possibility the Sox are a top 5 team in the AL. I don't doubt he'll need time to adjust. Most players do. It may make a slight difference in his early 2020 performance, but not enough for me to punt a year of control of a potential HOF caliber player. I've had this conversation numerous times and I don't really care to have it again. I totally understand where those on the other side of the fence are coming from. And I don't see how this is a top 5 team in the AL early next season unless the Sox go nuts in free agency and add Cole, a good RF, a legitimate backend SP, a bullpen piece or 4, and a stop gappy 2B. That is a lot to ask. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinilaw08 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Steve9347 said: You call it wasted, but quite often players need time in the bigs to adjust. The difference here is him adjusting in August and September instead of April and May 2020 when I think there's a very real possibility the Sox are a top 5 team in the AL. This. Eloy has had an adjustment period. Moncada had an adjustment period. If the Sox think that 2020 is a compete year, I'd rather they get Robert up here early so he's in the best position to succeed out of the gate in 2020. I thought they played the Eloy decision the right way. But expectations in 2019 vs. 2020 are starkly different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Baker said: For that extra 20% of surplus value, you’re giving up 2 months of valuable mlb experience in 2019 and another 2 weeks in 2020. Now if he doesn’t warrant a call up this year, then you have a decent debate about holding him the first 2 weeks of 2020 and the bad press that comes with it. But it’s more than 20% surplus value, because a guy like that simply isn’t available on a one-year deal of any kind. It’s not really about the annual salary at that point, it’s about still having him without committing a nine-figure long-term deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 It's crazy to think about what Eloy is doing and where his ceiling is as a player and then think Robert's probably going to be a lot better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) 35 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Well, I think we'll all be pretty damn disappointed when he leaves for FA a year earlier than he would have if the Sox didn't waste a year on 200 at bats in a 75 win season. I think it would be disappointing that a team worth 1.2 billion dollars couldnt retain the best player on the planet? The sox can afford to keep everyone. Stop accepting their nonsensical spin. Edited July 15, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panerista Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, illinilaw08 said: This. Eloy has had an adjustment period. Moncada had an adjustment period. If the Sox think that 2020 is a compete year, I'd rather they get Robert up here early so he's in the best position to succeed out of the gate in 2020. I thought they played the Eloy decision the right way. But expectations in 2019 vs. 2020 are starkly different. Luis will have time to adjust in 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: I think it would be disappointing that a team worth 1.2 billion dollars couldnt retain the best player on the planet? The sox can afford to keep everyone. Stop accepting their nonsensical spin. If Luis Robert becomes a top 5 player in this league, he isn't staying with the White Sox. Sorry to burst your bubble, dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: If Luis Robert becomes a top 5 player in this league, he isn't staying with the White Sox. Sorry to burst your bubble, dude. Says who? Seriously. The Angels could afford trout with their shit contracts around him but the sox cant keep a star? Edited July 15, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: If Luis Robert becomes a top 5 player in this league, he isn't staying with the White Sox. Sorry to burst your bubble, dude. That just puts me more on the make the most of your time with Robert + Moncada/giolito side tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Says who? Seriously. The Angels could afford trout with their shit contracts around him but the sox cant keep a star? They wouldn't pay for Machado, they won't pay for Moncada, Robert or anyone else. The White Sox, under this ownership group, have proven they will not pay top dollar for top talent. They need to maximize 2020-2023, because if this is the real Moncada and Giolito they're not going to be re-signed. Edited July 15, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Says who? Seriously. The Angels could afford trout with their shit contracts around him but the sox cant keep a star? We have no idea who will be signing the checks when he is eligilble for a big pay day, but the White Sox generally don't outbid other teams for their best players. Steve Kemp left. Frank Thomas didn't get to free agency taking less. They let Ventura walk with a token bid. They let Belle opt out and leave. They were going for a home discount with Maggs before he got hurt. They didn't want to pay Buehrle, which may have cost them a division in 2012. They re-signed Paulie after winning the World Series, but it wasn't the highest bid. To think the White Sox would make the highest bid for a premium free agent would be thinking they would do something they rarely if ever, have done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Says who? Seriously. The Angels could afford trout with their shit contracts around him but the sox cant keep a star? Says the fact that they are a mid market team and the largest contact in franchise history is $68M. That figure is almost certainly going to be beat ( probably by a significant margin) soon, but I don't see the Sox handing out what may end up being a half a billion dollar deal if Robert (or Moncada) end up being legitimate super stars that will command that type of payday down the line. Obviously I'd love to be wrong, but I'd rather keep said player an additional season under their initial contract if all I am giving up in return is 1.5 months of a bats in a lost season and 2 weeks of at bats in April. I know you disagree. We've discussed it at length. We can agree to disagree. Edited July 15, 2019 by ChiSox59 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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