I guess the "momentum" towards being competitive was just dumb luck?

[Orlando]

Even though the run differential is bad, I do 100% believe that with 5 MLB pitchers and not Gio and a bunch of crap, we’d be ok. Moncada, Eloy, Tim, McCann, Gio, Bummer have all taken strides. A week ago everyone thought this team turned a corner. One bad stretch without Tim and an Eloy injury shouldn’t change opinions. Let the season play out and evaluate afterwards. If they win 10 in a row everyone will be happy again. Don’t be so influenced by immediate results and look at the full picture.

Edited July 18, 2019 by Orlando

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Even though the run differential is bad, I do 100% believe that with 5 MLB pitchers and not Gio and a bunch of crap, we’d be ok. Moncada, Eloy, Tim, McCann, Gio, Bummer have all taken strides. A week ago everyone thought this team turned a corner. One bad stretch with out Tim and half of it without Eloy shouldn’t change opinions. Let the season play out and evaluate afterwards. If they win 10 in a row everyone will be happy again. Don’t be so influenced by immediate results and look at the full picture.

We would all feel a lot more comfortable in that assessment knowing the final season numbers of McCann, Giolito, Lopez and Cease.

 

Edited July 18, 2019 by caulfield12

[TheFutureIsNear]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

God it was so nice when the the team overachieving because it prevented you from screaming this ridiculous narrative over and over again.  But to act like they can’t put a winning product on the field next year is beyond ridiculous.

Keep:

• Moncada (3B), Anderson (SS), Eloy (LF), Abreu (1B), McCann (C), Leury (UTL), Giolito (SP1), Cease (SP4), Kopech (SP4), Lopez (SP5/LR), Colome (CL), Bummer (SU), Fry (MR), Herrera (MR)

Promote:

• Robert (CF), Madrigal (2B), Collins (BC)

Acquire:

• RF, DH, IF, OF, SP2, SP5/LR, SU, MR

That’s eight spots we’d have to fill worst case scenario (there are internal options at some of these spots), but only say five of any real significance (it’s hilarious you think every team has perfect 25 man rosters).  There is zero reason Hahn can’t fill those five spots when he should have a good $70M to work with even after extending Abreu.

Abreu, McCann, Herrera, and Colome likely won’t be performing at their current level in 2 years (except Herrera)...I don’t think you count any of them into the big picture of a winning Sox team in 2021. 

But yeah, if they really want to could they probably piece together a team to compete for a 2nd wild card spot next year? Sure, but do you really want to see this front office try to piece together a semi-competitive team with free agent parts? It will likely do more harm than good. Not to mention the idea of acquiring 6 key roster pieces in 1 off season isn’t difficult is pretty ridiculous. I mean...have you not seen this front office’s track record?

Long term the outlook still looks pretty bleak in my opinion. We need Robert, Eloy, Kopech, Cease, and Vaughn to all hit their all-star potential (or at least close) very soon.

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If McCann and Giolito can sustain their level of play...and it’s not the last guy in the bullpen if we trade two of high leverage relievers, it’s almost the entire bullpen, and that’s not as easy as one would think (see Sox problems finding a RFer or DH).

If they’re suddenly going to open their wallets with a series of at least 2-3 $80-140 million contracts, sure.

But if they do crash and end end up in the high 60’s for win count, one gets the feeling that will be the excuse to wait yet another year before pulling the trigger in free agency...playing it conservatively again because there are so many question marks in Kopech, Cease, Lopez, etc.

Meanwhile, we have to go from the second worst defense to the opposite.

They aren’t wasting another year of cheap Moncada, Giolito, Eloy, Timmy, etc.  They’re going to be aggressive this offseason and put their financial flexibility to work.

As for the defense, Robert & Madrigal will approve CF & 2B accordingly.  If Jose is brought back, my guess is he DHs more.  We’ll have to see what they do in RF, but overall the defense should be good outside of a few spots.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They aren’t wasting another year of cheap Moncada, Giolito, Eloy, Timmy, etc.  They’re going to be aggressive this offseason and put their financial flexibility to work.

As for the defense, Robert & Madrigal will approve CF & 2B accordingly.  If Jose is brought back, my guess is he DHs more.  We’ll have to see what they do in RF, but overall the defense should be good outside of a few spots.

You know how many times I disagreed with you the last 2 offseasons and said "don't mess this up by wasting our resources too early"?

I fully agree with you. We can be creative if the opportunity presents, but now is the time to put a roster on the field that looks strong on paper.

[Balta1701]

1. This team is better than last year. They were a low 60s win team last year, talent wise they are a low-70s win team this year.
2. This losing skid is a low-70s win team putting itself on a path to the low 70s in wins.
3. Injuries are part of the game. Part of the problem right now is that we are still working to develop the depth it takes to overcome them.
4. Once other guys come up, some of the weak starters we have right now become decent bench options. This strengthens the whole roster. 
5. We did get absolutely screwed by the pitching injuries. The Kopech injury and similar guys are the reason why our pitching staff looks so terrible right now. IMO that was the equivalent of a year long setback.
6. Our pitching staff will look very different next year with Kopech back and Cease in year 2. We do need to figure out how to get Lopez back to decent and because of the Rodon injury we absolutely need a top flight starter somewhere.
7. We need bullpen help a lot. Rick Hahn's bullpen plan has failed.
8. Outfielders need to be coached to yell "I got it" or something like that.
9. We have 4-5 major pieces about to arrive from the IL and from the minors. 
10. Regardless of this losing skid, they made the progress they needed this year. Next step is the minor league reinforcements and a bit of free agency.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. This team is better than last year. They were a low 60s win team last year, talent wise they are a low-70s win team this year.
2. This losing skid is a low-70s win team putting itself on a path to the low 70s in wins.
3. Injuries are part of the game. Part of the problem right now is that we are still working to develop the depth it takes to overcome them.
4. Once other guys come up, some of the weak starters we have right now become decent bench options. This strengthens the whole roster. 
5. We did get absolutely screwed by the pitching injuries. The Kopech injury and similar guys are the reason why our pitching staff looks so terrible right now. IMO that was the equivalent of a year long setback.
6. Our pitching staff will look very different next year with Kopech back and Cease in year 2. We do need to figure out how to get Lopez back to decent and because of the Rodon injury we absolutely need a top flight starter somewhere.
7. We need bullpen help a lot. Rick Hahn's bullpen plan has failed.
8. Outfielders need to be coached to yell "I got it" or something like that.
9. We have 4-5 major pieces about to arrive from the IL and from the minors. 
10. Regardless of this losing skid, they made the progress they needed this year. Next step is the minor league reinforcements and a bit of free agency.

All we need are five starters with WHIP’s from 1.1-1.3, roughly a 9.5 S09 average and the minor league pieces to add the equivalent of Justin Verlander at mid season.

When’s the last time we were able to do that from outside the organization...adding at least two quality guys?  Danks and Floyd over a decade ago?

Because if you put all your trust in Giolito, Kopech, Cease (and Dunning/Rodon to a lesser extent), time and time it has been proven you will need to go 7-8 pitchers deep.  Even if you lightly pencil in López, you’ll have a setback somewhere else.

Looking back in retrospect, they were incredibly fortunate  to get by with just four starters and El Duque/McCarthy in 2005.

[bmags]

This absolutely sucks now but this team has unbelievably avoided a streak like this all year despite an incredibly weak pitching staff.

I think the path to contention is a lot clearer now than March 1, but will need execution in the offseason.

I do wonder if you scratch off a guy like wheeler and go for lower upside but more stability for next year while our arms hopefully develop

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, Orlando said:

Even though the run differential is bad, I do 100% believe that with 5 MLB pitchers and not Gio and a bunch of crap, we’d be ok. Moncada, Eloy, Tim, McCann, Gio, Bummer have all taken strides. A week ago everyone thought this team turned a corner. One bad stretch without Tim and an Eloy injury shouldn’t change opinions. Let the season play out and evaluate afterwards. If they win 10 in a row everyone will be happy again. Don’t be so influenced by immediate results and look at the full picture.

Well said. It's always like this- when things are looking good (as in heading into the ASB), many are happy but there are far fewer posts/threads than there are when things are bad. A week or two from now we'll probably swing back in the other direction. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

This absolutely sucks now but this team has unbelievably avoided a streak like this all year despite an incredibly weak pitching staff.

I think the path to contention is a lot clearer now than March 1, but will need execution in the offseason.

I do wonder if you scratch off a guy like wheeler and go for lower upside but more stability for next year while our arms hopefully develop

Wheeler just went on the IL.

That leaves Bumgarner, Ryu, Odorizzi, Strasburg if he opts out, Keuchel, Gibson and Hamels as Tier 2.

Then another tier below with the likes of Wacha (one of the youngest), Wood, Porcello, Chacin, McHugh, Roark, etc.

[mqr]

The Sox are 10 months away from having one of the best young cores in baseball that runs between 7 and 10 guys deep, all pre-arb or on long extensions. 

Doubt the FO all you want, but 6 games in June doesn’t change the fact that they’re in the best long term position they’ve ever been, and that that position is real close to being bearing fruit. 

[Balta1701]

 

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

This absolutely sucks now but this team has unbelievably avoided a streak like this all year despite an incredibly weak pitching staff.

I think the path to contention is a lot clearer now than March 1, but will need execution in the offseason.

I do wonder if you scratch off a guy like wheeler and go for lower upside but more stability for next year while our arms hopefully develop

Assuming they're too cheap and unprofessional to make an actual offer to Cole (not unfair statements based on their performance last offseason), I think you do both. You go for someone like Keuchel or Bumgarner who is likely to cover a good amount of innings and you add in someone like Wheeler or Wacha who can hopefully help at some points during the season. Then you get Rodon back mid-season maybe and you now have 6 or so starters who are slated to fill in some time during the year as the original plan. If they're unexpectedly healthy one of them spends some time in the bullpen.

[Greg Hibbard]

1 hour ago, Orlando said:

Even though the run differential is bad, I do 100% believe that with 5 MLB pitchers and not Gio and a bunch of crap, we’d be ok. Moncada, Eloy, Tim, McCann, Gio, Bummer have all taken strides. A week ago everyone thought this team turned a corner. One bad stretch without Tim and an Eloy injury shouldn’t change opinions. Let the season play out and evaluate afterwards. If they win 10 in a row everyone will be happy again. Don’t be so influenced by immediate results and look at the full picture.

100% this. 

[bmags]

27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

Assuming they're too cheap and unprofessional to make an actual offer to Cole (not unfair statements based on their performance last offseason), I think you do both. You go for someone like Keuchel or Bumgarner who is likely to cover a good amount of innings and you add in someone like Wheeler or Wacha who can hopefully help at some points during the season. Then you get Rodon back mid-season maybe and you now have 6 or so starters who are slated to fill in some time during the year as the original plan. If they're unexpectedly healthy one of them spends some time in the bullpen.

Unfortunately I don’t think Wacha is much of an upside play anymore. This upcoming FA class is so terrible. You are right they need to go after The top guys and it hurts there to date aren’t even many Corbin like upstarts.

 

[bmags]

33 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

Assuming they're too cheap and unprofessional to make an actual offer to Cole (not unfair statements based on their performance last offseason), I think you do both. You go for someone like Keuchel or Bumgarner who is likely to cover a good amount of innings and you add in someone like Wheeler or Wacha who can hopefully help at some points during the season. Then you get Rodon back mid-season maybe and you now have 6 or so starters who are slated to fill in some time during the year as the original plan. If they're unexpectedly healthy one of them spends some time in the bullpen.

Actually it may be time we start talking about Jake Odorizzi.

[Dick Allen]

The broadcast always talks about other teams' run differential as being the true sign of where the team is at. They NEVER mention the Sox run differential which is 4th worse in baseball ahead of only Baltimore, Detroit, and Seattle who has played 6 or 7 more games. So if run differential really is a thing, this streak should surprise no one.

[flavum]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

The broadcast always talks about other teams' run differential as being the true sign of where the team is at. They NEVER mention the Sox run differential which is 4th worse in baseball ahead of only Baltimore, Detroit, and Seattle who has played 6 or 7 more games. So if run differential really is a thing, this streak should surprise no one.

Totally agree. The Sox got lucky in many ways to be 2 under .500 at the break. And it didn’t hurt that Giolito was “win day” for a couple months. That wasn’t going to be sustainable for an entire season.

They’ve had some bright spots, but they don’t walk enough. They don’t hit enough homers, even if it seems better with a juiced ball. The defense sucks. The starting pitching sucks. The bullpen is average at best. 

The Sox will probably sniff 90 losses, and pick 7th in the draft next year. Hopefully the important players continue to improve and they can make smarter acquisitions than they did this past offseason. They desperately need better health next year, and it wouldn’t hurt if Giolito, Lopez, Cease, and Kopech can make 30+ starts and feel like all four are competent major league starters going into 2021 when they have to win a division.

[ChiSox59]

I think it has more to do with the pitching finally catching up to us, and the fact that our 2nd best player has been hurt, and 3rd or 4th best player is now also hurt.  

This was not a .500 team.  Most people realized that.  But the pieces to have a competitive team in 2020 are definitely there is Jerry is willing to make a few splashes this winter.  I am hopeful.  

[Bob Sacamano]

All that matters is that Giolito, Moncada, Anderson, and Eloy are having nice seasons. Cease is up finally getting experience and unfortunately, Lopez took a few steps back. All we are looking for this year is improvements from the guys expected to be here in the future and see if anyone else can surprise us and join them.

[OneDog847]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

God it was so nice when the the team overachieving because it prevented you from screaming this ridiculous narrative over and over again.  But to act like they can’t put a winning product on the field next year is beyond ridiculous.

Keep:

• Moncada (3B), Anderson (SS), Eloy (LF), Abreu (1B), McCann (C), Leury (UTL), Giolito (SP1), Cease (SP4), Kopech (SP4), Lopez (SP5/LR), Colome (CL), Bummer (SU), Fry (MR), Herrera (MR)

Promote:

• Robert (CF), Madrigal (2B), Collins (BC)

Acquire:

• RF, DH, IF, OF, SP2, SP5/LR, SU, MR

That’s eight spots we’d have to fill worst case scenario (there are internal options at some of these spots), but only say five of any real significance (it’s hilarious you think every team has perfect 25 man rosters).  There is zero reason Hahn can’t fill those five spots when he should have a good $70M to work with even after extending Abreu.

 

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just to show how ridiculous this post is, here’s the offseason additions (excluding any minor league promotions) for a White Sox team that ended up being pretty good:

• Jermaine Dye (RF)
• A.J. Pieryznski (C)
• Tadahito Iguchi (2B)
• Scott Podsednik (LF)
• Chris Widger (C)
• Pablo Ozuna (UTL)
• Orlando Hernández (SP)
• Dustin Hermanson (RP)
• Luiz Vizcaíno (RP)
• Bobby Jenks (RP)

Dude, I'm not saying the rebuild is doomed to failure. I'm saying that the Sox are going to need a miracle, and for everything single thing to break in their direction in order to compete next year. 

Also, you are acting like it is extremely easy to go out and fill 8 rosters spots via free agency in one offseason. Have you not been paying attention to Rick Hahn's free agency signings over the past decade? His track record is absolutely horrendous and it is scary to think about him signing a bunch of tier 2/3 free agents this offseason. 

Robert, Madrigal, and Kopech are unlikely to even be on the opening day roster next year. We will probably see Adam Engel or Ryan Cordell out there in center on opening day and Yolmer Sanchez at second. As the saying goes, you can't win a Division in April but you can certainly lose it. 

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

 

Dude, I'm not saying the rebuild is doomed to failure. I'm saying that the Sox are going to need a miracle, and for everything single thing to break in their direction in order to compete next year. 

Also, you are acting like it is extremely easy to go out and fill 8 rosters spots via free agency in one offseason. Have you not been paying attention to Rick Hahn's free agency signings over the past decade? His track record is absolutely horrendous and it is scary to think about him signing a bunch of tier 2/3 free agents this offseason. 

Robert, Madrigal, and Kopech are unlikely to even be on the opening day roster next year. We will probably see Adam Engel or Ryan Cordell out there in center on opening day and Yolmer Sanchez at second. As the saying goes, you can't win a Division in April but you can certainly lose it. 

They might not compete, but it won't and absolutely should not be for a lack of trying.

Punting another year of controllable assets to get like the number 8 pick at best is the absolute dumbest thing they could do. 

[Orlando]

All I am trying to say is a few weeks ago when we were beating up on Berrios, no one was talking this way. Now we hit a slump against a team we have dominated and we are  a trash team. 

[Kyyle23]

15 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

 

Dude, I'm not saying the rebuild is doomed to failure. I'm saying that the Sox are going to need a miracle, and for everything single thing to break in their direction in order to compete next year. 

Also, you are acting like it is extremely easy to go out and fill 8 rosters spots via free agency in one offseason. Have you not been paying attention to Rick Hahn's free agency signings over the past decade? His track record is absolutely horrendous and it is scary to think about him signing a bunch of tier 2/3 free agents this offseason. 

Robert, Madrigal, and Kopech are unlikely to even be on the opening day roster next year. We will probably see Adam Engel or Ryan Cordell out there in center on opening day and Yolmer Sanchez at second. As the saying goes, you can't win a Division in April but you can certainly lose it. 

I mean, all you keep repeating is pretty much everything will go wrong next year.  It's tiring.  

they will be attempting to compete next season, not punting for a higher draft pick again.  Whether they are successful will depend a large amount on their developed players like Anderson moncada Robert Kopech Cease Giolito etc.

if their plan was to actually stretch this to 2023 like you keep saying, then the rebuild is a massive failure 

[caulfield12]

How much are we willing to pay Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi or Bumgarner?

For once, we need to be like the Rays and get the equivalent of Charlie Morton’s performance...even if it costs $15 million/season.   You simply can’t half ass it and throw that money at 2-3 Nova’s (literally “no go” in Spanish”) or Santana’s.    Legit starters.

 

For RF, beyond the obvious three candidates...Corey Dickerson can be purchased for pennies on the dollar from the Pirates and auditioned for the remainder of the season as he heads into free agency at age 30.  Or Domingo Santana from the M’s, who has two more arbitration years.  Option #3 is the Padres paying 1/2 the remaining $62.5 million on Wil Myers’ deal  (goes through 2022 with $1 million buyout or $20 million for 2023).

In fact, investing the money into another starter or bullpen help would be much more cost-effective than overpaying Castellanos, Ozuna or Puig.

Edited July 18, 2019 by caulfield12

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I mean, all you keep repeating is pretty much everything will go wrong next year.  It's tiring.  

they will be attempting to compete next season, not punting for a higher draft pick again.  Whether they are successful will depend a large amount on their developed players like Anderson moncada Robert Kopech Cease Giolito etc.

if their plan was to actually stretch this to 2023 like you keep saying, then the rebuild is a massive failure 

The biggest thing is that the bottom of the league is such a mess. There are sooooo many teams tanking that the Sox have absolutely no shot of catching, short of completely starting over. They need to find some exit velocity ASAP